NCAAF Picks ATS

Central Michigan Chippewas at Toledo Rockets

The Toledo Rockets enter this game with one of the best passing attacks in college football.  The teams they have played make that easier statistically, but the MAC is the MAC.  They bring  that top 8 rated passing attack up against a team that has had serious problems stopping the pass.  The Chippewas are coming off an embarrassing loss to Ball State where they were shredded through the air for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Things should not change much against Toledo.

Toledo QB Carter Bradley was impressive last week throwing for 432 yards and 3 tds against Northern Illinois.  Bradley was forced into action because of the injury to starter Elliot Peters.  Whether it is Peters or Bradley under center shouldn’t matter much against the putrid defense of Central Michigan.  If it is Bradley, he will have an additional week likely taking more snaps with the first team.  The Rockets offense has been dynamite all season averaging 37.2 PPG, that will continue on Saturday. 

Central Michigan’s defense has problems but the offense has still been solid averaging 33 PPG.  Ty Brook took over at QB last week and put on a solid showing with 188 yards and 3 tds.  Central Michigan will need him to stay accurate to compete, the Toledo defense has been pretty solid versus the run. 

This game’s total seems way too low.  Both offenses move fast and score fast.  The 11 point spread means book makers see Toledo running away with it, that means Central will be forced to move even faster.  I am going with the over and considering laying the points with Toledo.  For now, stick with the over. 

Pick: Over 52.5


North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes 

Miami is 8-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Clemson.  Quietly they own a great record and have been solid against the spread at 6-3.  Miami has a great QB in D’Eriq King.  King is coming off of a dominant game against Duke, they shut out the Blue Devils, winning 45-0.  Miami has won five straight games against inferior ACC teams.  Their defense has inflated numbers against some of the lower level teams in their conference.  When they have played teams that bring more on offense they have given up points.  They gave up 41 to NC State, 34 to Louisville and 42 to Clemson.  On Saturday they will have a problem in the North Carolina Tarheels.  

The Tarheels continue to be underrated this season.  Tar Heels QB Sam Howell is having a great season, he threw for over 500 yards against Wake Forest before dealing with the stout Notre Dame defense that shut them down.  They followed that up by trouncing Western Carolina.  Howell has some big time help in the backfield with the two-headed monster of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.  The running game could be the difference, both teams have great offenses and shaky defenses.  North Carolina controlling the ball will be a big deal.  Miami has continually not shown up against prime offensive teams. 

The Tarheels have the advantage on the sidelines with Mack Brown.  They have the firepower to match Miami and a much more reliable running game to control the ball with a lead.  This will be a high scoring game that UNC will prevail in because of their running game. 

Pick: Tarheels ML, Way over 67

Navy Midshipmen at Army Black Knights

The Army Black Knights rely on the run game. Their triple option game has led them to a 7-2 record with wins over Georgia Southern, UTSA and Mercer. Not exactly top notch competition but still they should have an advantage as they step up against a Navy team that’s achilles heel fits perfectly for the Black Knights. 

The Army rush attack ranks third in the country averaging 296 yards per game. Navy gives up 223 yards per game ranking 196th.  The Black Knights are coming off of a victory over Georgia Southern who plays a similar run first style as both of these teams.  Army will control the line of scrimmage as they have the advantage on both sides of the ball. 

This game is always fun.  Army has the advantage of the home field, it doesn’t matter how many people will be there.  Army covers.  

Pick: Army -7

Overall Season Picks Record: 14-12

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