Month: October 2020

NCAAF Picks ATS, Week 9

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Temple Owls at Tulane Green Wave

The total for this game has taken a tumble from 64 to 59.5.  The drop of this magnitude is something I am going to jump on. 

These two teams have not stopped anyone. Tulane is coming off of giving up over 600 yards to UCF.  Temple is coming off of giving up 31 second half points to Memphis.   While they both played offensive oriented teams the lack of defense from both of these teams will transition to their next matchup.  

Temple was able to counter the Memphis offense with gaining some yard of their own behind QB  Anthony Russo.  The Owls gained 489 yards and got 30 first downs. Russo will have an advantage against a Tulane offense that has given up over 400 yards a game through the air. 

Tulane will rely on their running game averaging 232 yards per game (9th in the country).  Stephon Huderson leads Tulane with 397 rushing yards along with 3 TDs while Cameron Carroll has a team-high 7 touchdowns to go along with 341 rushing yards.

Temple is averaging 34 points, Tulane is averaging 36 points.  Add those together and you get 70 points per game. These two teams are a combined 5-1-1 to the over this season and it will continue on Saturday.  

Pick: Over 59.5

Oklahoma Sooners -14 at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oklahoma is coming off of two straight ATS covers against Texas and TCU.  They will continue to run their way through the Texas teams on Saturday versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The Sooners have not only won their last two but they also covered both of those games.  Matching up with Texas Tech  should allow for fireworks for Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler. 

Texas Tech is coming off of a game where they gave up 438 yards against a subpar West Virginia offense.  They will face a major step up in offensive competition.   The Red Raiders have given up tons of yards through the air.  The secondary has given up over 300 yards in three of five games this year and should be the fourth this weekend.  

This comes down to the fact that Texas Tech will not be able to get enough pressure on Rattler to force turnovers.  The Oklahoma defense made an appearance last week holding TCU to just 14 points.  Texas Tech will have no chance to keep up with the pace of the Sooners. 

Pick: Oklahoma Sooners  -14

Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11 at Syracuse Orange

Wake Forest is coming off of an upset win over Virignia Tech where they were eleven pount underdogs.  The win is their third straight.  They have won by causing turnovers, 10 in total over their last three victories.  Wake is at a +10 turnover margin in their victories. 

Syracuse is coming off of a “moral” victory by covering the spread against the vaunted Clemson Tigers.  Their performance against Clemson has given the market a false idea taht Syracuse is better than they really are.  Syracuse lost starting QB Tommy Devito early in the season against Duke.  Senior Rex Culpepper has not been good completing just 43% of his passes since taking over as the starter.  The lack of passing attack has killed the run game. Syracuse is only averaging 91 yard per game on the season.  

Much like the Demon Deacons, Syracuse has been turning opposing teams over (2.8 per game). Wake’s QB Sam Hartman has not thrown an interception this season.  He is considered a game manager that will not look to throw the ball down field.  In this matchup he won’t need to.  He will rely on the two-headed running monster.  Sophomore Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 449 yards and eight touchdowns on 90 attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Junior Christian Beal-Smith has added 71 carries for 385 yards and four scores, picking up 5.4 yards per attempt.

Syracuse has had a tough schedule.  They sit at the bottom of college football giving up nearly 500 total yards.  The run game will dominate and Sam Hartman will do enough to keep the defense honest.  This matchup reminds me of the Orange’s matchup with Liberty earlier this year.  Wake Forest will control the ball with the run game

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11

Overall Season Picks Record: 6-3

NCAAF Pick ATS Week 8

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Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Liberty Flames -10

Libety is 5-0 for the first time since 2008. Their offense has been impressive averaging 34 ppg.  The running attack has been carrying the load, averaging 269 yard per game.  The difficulty of the Flames is they consistently varry up their looks.  They have a four-headed monster Joshua Mack (359 yards 6.1 AVG, 1TD), Shedro Louis (310 yards, 9.4 AVG, 3 TDs), Peyton Pickett (293 yards, 5.0 AVG, 3 TD), quarterback Malik Willis who has a team-best 398 yards and five touchdowns.  The run game will be a huge factor against Southern Mississippi, they give up 5.7 yards per attempt this season.  

Southern Mississippi has been living through the air.  69% of their offensive plays have come by way of the pass.  Liberty is 4th in the nation in stopping the big pass play, holding opposing teams to just 5.5 yards per attempt.  

Liberty has not played a great schedule but they have a lot of momentum after stomping Syracuse last week.  This is a great matchup for the Flames and they should be able to do whatever they want on offense. 

Pick: Liberty Flames -10

Houston Cougars -14 at Navy Midshipmen

Houston got run over by Zach Wilson and BYU last week giving up yards by the plenty.  Navy has tons of momentum coming off of a win over East Carolina last week, their third in a row.  Navy has seen a carousel at QB but it hasn’t stopped the offensive game plan for Navy.  They want to run the ball and that is what they have been doing.  They have averaged 191 rush yards per game.  They will have Tyger Goslin at QB which means they will continue to pound the run game on Houston looking to control the clock. 

Houston has a dynamic offense led by QB Clayton Tune.  They were able to go shot for shot with BYU until the 4th quarter.  It will be vital for Houston to take advantage of their time with the ball as they will struggle to stop the run game.  Houston likely pulls this one out because of Clayton Tune but they will not have an easy go on the road.  Houston wins, but 14 is too many points. 

Pick: Navy Midshipmen +14

Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 at SMU Mustangs 

SMU is 5-0, featuring one of the most powerful offenses in college football.  The Mustangs rank ninth in the nation in scoring (40.9 per game).  They have done that against mediocre defenese to say the least.  They will now get one of the best defenses in the country coming off of a week off due to Covid-19 issues.  

While SMU is unbeaten they have not faced the competition they will face on Saturday.  Cincinnati has held teams to just 306 yards per game good for 12th in the nation.  SMU’s Shane Buechele has been on fire but he will be without his top target Reggie Roberson.  Without Roberson, SMU could have trouble doing the things that they want to do. Their 406 passing yards per game has allowed them to overcome defensive issues. No Roberson will hurt the game plan. 

Cincinnati will try to limit the decisions for Ridder by running the ball against the subpar defense of  SMU.  They give up 170 yards per game on the ground.  The Bearcats have been great with 121 carries for 534 yards and 7 touchdowns.  

The rested Cincy defense and the run game will be enough to take down SMU on the road.  May as well take the points to be safe.    

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 

Overall Season Picks Record: 4-2

Titans offense is the best in the league.

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Are Titans the best offense in the league?

The Titans are 5-0.  Along with the Steelers and the Seahawks they are the only teams in the league with a still undefeated mark.  They have built their team around an offense that has been impossible to stop. Despite not featuring the premier names in the league they have built an offense that has a bit of old school in it while constantly evolving into the trends of the league. 

Tennessee features an offense that can do anything it wants to move the ball.  Ryan Tannahill has broken away from the cesspool that was Adam Gase to finally meet the expectations of a former first round draft pick. Ryan Tannahill since being named starter in 2019 (Week 7) has led the league in touchdown passes (40), and yards per attempt (8.6 YPA). He has the 4th highest QBR of the season (83.3), that puts him in front of Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, and Kyer Murray.  His ability to throw on the move and develop with the young receivers has made him an unstoppable force in a league that is seeing a boom in athletic quarterback play.  He has made stars of players that most teams had overlooked, AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith have emerged in this dynamic offense because Tannahill has led them to this point.  His trust in his receiving core allows him to make plays that we had not seen early in his career.  Looking at the highlights from Sunday’s victory over the Texans shows a couple of plays that utilizes his mobility (watch 2:19) and his trust of second year star AJ Brown (watch at 13:14). 

Highlights from Texans/Titans:

The Titans offense is built around the bell cow Derrick Henry.  Everyone knows he is going to get the ball but stopping him is another story.  His bruising runs punish opposing defenses to the point where they are forced to sell out to stopping him.  He currently leads the league in rushing yards by 100 more yards than the next ranked player.  He is as dominant as any player we have ever seen in the league.  The Titans added another weapon in the backfield, Jeremy McNichols, the 2017 fifth round pick out of Boise State brings a different tempo to the field when he is in the game.  He has a lot of Dion Lewis/James White in him.  He is a perfect fit to change the pace up when Henry gets a breather.  

The Titans offense is a throwback, built around the run to open up the pass.They have been able to run this efficient offesne despite being held backby multiple Covid-19 issues.  Wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis have missed time but they will all be healthy soon and this offense will continue to thrive. They are backed up by a coach that has all the confidence in his team that will allow them to go out and take chances.  The Titans are no longer a run first team that can’t be successful without Derrick Henry.  This is a team that can match up with the powerful offesnes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Titans are a real threat in the AFC, this offense is going to be tough to stop.

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct.14

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Navy Midshipmen -2 at East Carolina Pirates

East Carolina has given up a lot og yards on the ground.  The Pirates rank 126th in the nation against the run.  The bread and butter of the Navy offense is on the ground.  Navy’s ability to run will allow them to control the clock and keep the high powered East Carolina offense off the field. 

Navy has had great success over their conference going 5-0 ATS in their last five games.  East Carolina is just 1-9 straight up in their last ten. Navy’s run game will be too much to handle, they win this one easily due to their ball control.  

Pick: Navy -2

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Both teams are coming off of great offensive showings last week.  Georgia Tech put up 46 points versus the Louisville Cardinals, while Clemson continued their dominance putting up 41 against Virginia and 42 against Miami. These two teams have the ability to run and control the clock but they still move quickly and pick up yards in chunks.  Clemson ranks 10th in yards per play while Georgia Tech surprisingly ranks 28th.  

Clemson is a 27 point favorite in this game and they will likely be emptying the bench in the 4th quarter.  They will be able to coast at the end which will provide the opportunity for the Yellow Jackets to put up some points late in the game.  This one should be a scoring factory.  Lots of points and a blow out.

Pick: Over 64

North Carolina Tarheels -13.5 at Florida State Seminoles

Living in a world of North Carolina being a double digit favorite on the road against Florida State is the world we live in right now.  The Tarheels come into this matchup looking to continue to establish themselves as a serious contender in the ACC.  The Seminoles are just looking to salvage a bit of credibility as they continue to rebuild.  

Florida State replaced James Blackmon at QB with versatile sophomore Jordan Travis.  He showed signs of life from the Seminole offense, outscoring powerhouse Notre Dame in the first quarter until reality took over and Notre Dame blew them out the rest of the way. Travis though will likely not be able to play on Saturday which means they have to go back to Blackmon which has been less than successful. 

Florida State gave up 353 rushing yards to Notre Dame last week and now have to go up against the two headed monster Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.  Combined they have rushed for almost 700 yards and eight touchdowns.  The Tarheels need to not only win this game but do it in convincing fashion.  They will roll over the Seminoles by three touchdowns. 

Picks: North Carolina -13.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 2-1

Braves vs Dodgers; NLCS Preview and Prediction

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The matchup of the two best teams in the national league will culminate in an epic showdown in the NLCS.  Both teams have gone undefeated throughout the first two rounds, they both feature great offenses and marquee names.  These teams have a history of winning, but not a recent history of winning the big one.  What will be the difference?  Let’s break it down. 

Can Braves pitching face the challenge?

Atlanta took some blows to their pitching staff throughout the season.  Losing offseason signees Felix Hernandez and Cole Hamels, one to injury and one to Covid worry set the Braves back right away.  The rapid decline of Mike Foltynewicz took another name off the table almost immediately into 2020.  The final straw in the deterioration of the staff was losing ace Mike Soroka to an achilles injury. 

Max Fried stepped up during the regular season. Despite getting knocked around in the NLDS he is still the clear #1 for the Braves.  Fried has limited hard contact all season holding opposing lineups to just a 23% rate.  The Dodgers are not a heavy strikeout team so limiting the contact will be important.  

Rookie Ian Anderson has been overwhelming to start his career.  He has held opposing hitters power in check so far giving up just a .7% homerun rate.  That ranks #1 in the league for any pitcher that has faced at least 156 hitters.  Anderson’s changeup has kept hitters off balance, as long as he continues to hit the strike zone and avoid free passes he matches up well with the Dodgers front line starters.  

The depth of the Braves bullpen has bailed them out from their injuries. Tyler Matzek, Will Smith, Darren O’Day and Mark Melancon all have been great with sub 3.00 ERA’s in at least 18 appearances each.  They have to ride the bullpen arms to overcome their young rotation that will have problems with the Dodgers patience at the plate. 

The Dodgers offense is matchup proof.

Los Angeles has the best offense in the league in every advanced statistic.  They have a wRC+ of 122, along with the Mets as the best in the league.  What makes the Dodgers extremely dangerous is their ability to score without utilizing the homerun.  They showed in the Padres series they have multiple ways of manufacturing runs.  There is not one person on the team that beats you, it could be anyone. 

The Braves feature an extremely young pitching staff that will have to throw strikes. The Braves sit at the bottom five in steals allowed per game.  The Dodgers will have a chance to make things happen when they get on base. 

The Braves are in the bottom five in stolen bases against during the season. The Dodgers have multiple players that can take advantage of the Braves issues with runners on.  Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Cody Bellinger are just a few that can swip a bag at any moment.  LA will make it tough for Atlanta as they also feature a low strikeout rate.  The power is real, accompanied by the ability to use their contact ability speed to cause trouble.  

Who will win?

Both teams feature the best offenses in the National League.  The Braves however will feature a rotation that includes Kyle Wright….and nothing else.  The Dodgers feature a perfect matchup with the Braves bats Julio Urias and Dustin May both feature great movement on their pitches that will be a problem for Atlanta bats.  The depth of the Dodgers pitching will ultimately outmatch the Braves.  

Dodgers in 5

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct 10

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Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Liberty Flames -19

The Liberty Flames offense is overwhelming.  They average 81 plays per game, which is top 15 in all of college football. Dual threat quarterback Mailk Willis had the offense moving in their week one upset of Western Kentucky.  The Auburn transfer rushed for 168 yards and 3 touchdowns in against the Hilltoppers leading to a victory as 14.5 point dogs.  

The Flames followed up their upset victory with two more wins over Nortern Alabama and FIU. Both games missed the cover but the momentum of the victories should have them ready to take care of business against the lowly Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. ULM gives up rushing yards in bunches ranking 127th in college football against the run.  Willis should be able to control the game with his ability to run and his sneaky passing attack.  

Liberty is a veteran team that has won seven consecutive games at home dating back to last year and they will not look past ULM.  ULM is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home. 

Pick: Liberty -19

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -2.5 

Two teams that have underperformed to start the season meet in a rivalry game that will have a lot less impact on the college football playoff than most would have thought at the beginning of the season.   These two teams are both in need of a win and a statement game.  

Sooner redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler has been a roller coaster in his first three starts throwing for 290, 387, and 300.  He has had a problem with turnovers in the clutch with four picks against Big 12 opponents.  The pressure will be on in his first go round in the Red River Showdown.  His matchup with the Texas Longhorns will be favorable. Texas is coming off back to back games giving up 56 and 33 to Texas Tech and TCU respectively.  

Texas will have senior Sam Ehlinger running the offense looking for a big win in his final showdown with Oklahoma. The Texas offense is averaging 518 yards and 51 points per game.  Oklahoma has not shown the ability to stop anyone this season and a veteran team that is desperete for a win will be a problem.  

Both teams have great offenses, they will show them off this weekend.  I look for Ehlinger to make the big play down the stretch to win but I am more comfortable with taking the over. 

Pick: Over 72 (lean Texas ML)

LSU Tigers -14 at Missouri Tigers 

This game was supposed to be played at Baton Rouge, due to hurricane Delta this game was moved to Columbia, Missouri.  The move caused a line change from -20 to -14.  Missouri is 1-9 ATS in their last ten games.  They have given up 35 and 38 respectively over their last two games.  Matching up with an LSU offense that isn’t the same national title contending group but they are still no walk in the park. 

Missouri found some offense once they inserted Connor Bazelak into the lineup over TCU transfer Shawn Robinson. They will have to be on their game early because if they let LSU grab a lead they still haven’t figured out how to turn yardage into touchdowns.   

Missouri’s inability to get stops on third down crushed them last week against Tennessee.  If they can’t get off the field their defense will wear down. LSU QB Myles Brennan has thrown for 330 or over in each game along with seven touchdowns   If he finds it early and grabs a lead they will coast the rest of the way. 

Pick: LSU -14

Ranking top three offensive free agents for the St. Louis Caridnals

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The Cardinals offense sucked in 2020.  There were a lot of factors that played into that, including the long layoff from positive Covid tests but, to be honest they were not much better in 2019.  Heading into the 2021 the rotation and bullpen is loaded with options that are above league average.  The biggest need will be on the offensive side of the ball.  The upcoming offseason doesn’ feature the Manny Machado, Bryce Harper or Mike Trout’s that the fanbase would crave over but there are some options that can bring some much needed production to the lineup. 

This list is focusing on just the offensive free agents.  Guys like Liam Hendricks, and Trevor Bauer (whom both should be on the Cardinals radar) will be completely excluded from this list  

3. DJ LeMahieu, 32, INF

Who wouldn’t want a two-time batting champion with position versatility?  No one is the answer.  The reason LeMahieu isn’t number one on this list is that he has already verbally stated that he wants to resign with the Yankees. 

LeMahieu has the ability to play every infield spot including SS if in a bind and he can do it at a high level. His batting statistics jump at you but quietly he has amassed a nice collection of gold gloves (3) in his career. After two terrific seasons in New York amassing a WRC+ of 135 and 177 respectively.

The experiment of Paul DeJong at shortstop has been unsuccessful.  DeJong’s power has shown through his career hitting 35,19, and 30 homers over the last three seasons before 2020.  Moving DeJong to the bench, would be the best option for the team.  Resigning Kolten Wong, moving Tommy Edman to shortstop and having LeMahieu at third would be the best option for the team.  

2. Nelson Cruz, 40, DH

The DH in the national league is here to stay. The Cardinals have a chance to add a monster bat and not hurt themselves on the defense.  The ageless wonder Nelson Cruz is the answer to all the problems that you have in the ISO department. Since 2014 Nelson Cruz’s ISO has not gone below .250.  In comparison the highest Cardinals outfielder ISO was Harrison Bader at just .217.  St. Louis needs power and they need it badly.  With a team slugging percentage of .373 they rank 27th in the entire league.  

The protection of Nelson Cruz can open up a lot of possibilities in the Cardinals lineup.  Their lone star Paul Goldschmidt has had literally no protection behind him, with the Cardinals cleanup hitters in the bottom five in every offensive category. Cruz is the perfect fit for the Cardinals because he brings one thing to the table and that is power.  It is exactly what the Cardinals need; he can be gotten at an affordable price for a likely one-year deal. 

1. Marcell Ozuna, 30, OF/DH

Marcell Ozuna’s first go round with the Cardinals wasn’t ideal.  His two seasons with the redbirds Ozuna saw just a grand total of just .777.  Ozuna played his Cardinals tenure with a serious shoulder injury that held back his offensive abilities.  

Ozuna took a shot on himself signing a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves. Through sixty games Ozuna not only put himself in the conversation for the MVP, but his protection for Freddie Freeman took his ability to the next level. Ozuna led the National League in homers, RBI, and total bases.  A motivated Marcell Ozuna can be a game changer the Cardinals thought they had traded for. 

A second go around in St. Louis doesn’t seem likely but on the list of things that Cardinals need he fits the bill.  A contract of four years and $125 million would be the likely number that would bring him in, at just 30 years old he is still young enough that the Cardinals can have him for the prime years of his career. He can be the staple of the offense along with Paul Goldschmidt and the newly emerging Dylan Carlson.  A core lineup featuring those three can immediately make them a contender.