This is one of the toughest nights on the season for trying to find value. With the astronomical total in the New Orleans/Houston game it is important to find the right pieces to fit around your star plays. Let’s break it down.
Stud to target- Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics
Kemba is very scoring dependent, but with the loss of Gordon Hayward his usage rate should skyrocket against a Dallas team that doesn’t always focus on the defensive end. Walker sees a usage rate of 28% on the season with no Hayward on the floor. While most will be on Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart and they point fest going on in New Orleans Walker could quietly have the best game of the night and hopefully be lesser owned.
Game to target- Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
The obvious choice is the New Orleans. Houston game. I am going to try and fade the obvious and go with the San Antonio Spurs vs, Memphis Grizzlies. The Spurs are affordable..very affordable. San Antonio has the third highest implied total on the board at 117 and has three players that can easily hit value in an up paced matchup with the Grizzlies.
Dejounte Murray, Demar Derozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are all at $7K or below and each has a great chance to hit their value in the first half. On the other side you have a Grizzlies team that will give moderately priced role players big minutes. Jae Crowder, Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson are all guys that can provide a lot of upside in multiple areas.
Punt Play- Josh Hart, New Orleans Pelicans
No matter what you can’t completely fade Rockets/ Pelican game. I am trying to grab affordable pieces to get around the potential log jam of the studs. Josh Hart will likely be looking at 30 minutes off the bench especially without Lonzo Ball. Hart is a better defender than both Frank Jackson and JJ Redick which will be necessary if this game is close. If it’s not close and Houston runs away with it, I still love Hart to get the garbage time buckets.
PG: Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs
SG: Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors
SF: Josh Hard, New Orleans Pelicans
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
C: Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
G: Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics
F: Derek Favors, New Orleans Pelicans
Utli: Jarret Culver, Minnesota Timberwolves (Only if Teague and Napier are out)
Keep your eye on: Donavon Mitchell, Utah Jazz
Mitchell is way too cheap. That is all.