Bowl Game Picks ATS- Dec 26

First Responder Bowl: Boston College Eagles vs Boise State Broncos -2.5

The Boise State Broncos enter bowl season winners of 7 of 8 with the only loss coming in the MWC Championship game to Fresno State.  They are set for a matchup with the Boston College Eagles who opened the season on a tear at 7-2 before injuries doomed them to three straight losses to end the campaign. 

Eagles QB Anthony Brown and RB AJ Dillon are both set to play in this game which will make a huge difference for a team that has been lost on the offense without their two playmakers.  The Eagles also have to face a defense that hasn’t given up more than 24 points since back in October.  Boston College will struggle to score

The Broncos will have QB Brett Rypien who averaged 285 yards per game this season adding 30 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions.  Rypien will have had three weeks to prospect his adversaries in this one, making him even more lethal.  Rypien along with Junior RB Alexander Mattison will make for a stronger punch then the aforementioned Brown and Dillon. 

Both teams have stronger defenses than offenses, but the edge on both ends has to go to a healthy Boise State team that seems to have a history of beating power five teams.  Take Boise State to cover because of their defense.

Boise State -2.5

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota Golden Golphers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -6

Georgia Tech is going to run the ball…duh.  Can the Minnesota Golden Gopher defense stop that run game…. no.  Minnesota’s defensive strength is their pass rush which will be completely negated by the fact that the Yellow Jackets never really throw the ball. 

Both Georgia Tech “Quarterbacks”  TeQuon Marshall and Tobias Oliver ran for over 800 yards, while as a team Georgia Tech averaged an astounding 334.9 yards per game during the regular season. This will be a huge problem for a Minnesota team that dug deep in the regular season to salvage themselves a shot at a bowl game. 

Minnesota has some nice wins on their schedule including victories over MWC Champion Fresno State, Purdue and at Wisconsin. But the rushing attack of Georgia Tech and the inexperience at QB with their second freshman starter of the year Tanner Morgan makes this seem like an insurmountable task for Head Coach PJ Fleck and company.  Minnesota had a nice season but they don’t cover the six points.

Georgia Tech -6

Cheez-It Bowl: California Golden Bears -1 vs. TCU Horned Frogs

The TCU Horned Frogs may want 2018 to ended worse than any other team in the country. A pre-season top 25 team was the definition of injury riddled this year, entering the Cheez-It Bowl with their 3rd string QB and 2nd string RB.  This would be bad news for any team but a matchup with the surprisingly stingy California Golden Bears makes this a nightmare after Christmas. The Golden Bears featured the No. 24 scoring defense in all of college football holding offense juggernauts like Washington to just 10 points and Washington State to 19 points.

TCU will start senior Grayson Muehlstein at QB, coming off a great victory against the uninspired Oklahoma State Cowboys in the final week of the season. Big 12 defenses, especially after two tough games the previous week are usually not the toughest of opponents so that win doesn’t carry the weight it may have earlier in the season.

TCU has a lot of talent on both ends despite the missing pieces but California will just make it too tough for them to score.  Still believe TCU makes this a game based on the fact that despite all of the injuries the spread is only at 1 point.  I have to go with California to pull off the victory by at least 3 points. 

California -1

Bowl Picks ATS- Dec 15

The bowl season is here, starting off with five games on Saturday.  With no real marquee matchups these games won’t get the love the deserve. A

Autonation Cure Bowl: Tulane -3.5 vs Louisiana Lafayette

A meeting between to Louisiana teams that got off to a slow start in 2018 will face off in Orlando.  Both teams feature top 30 rushing attacks which will make for slow paced game. 

The Ragin Cajuns under first year Coach Billy Nappier, former Nick Saban assistant, as turned around a ULL team that coming off three straight sub-.500 seasons. ULL has been battle tested starting the season at 1-3 with losses to SEC powers Alabama and Mississippi State.  They rebounded from a tough start to the season by winning six of their final nine games and the Western Division of the Sun Belt.  

Tulane has moved on from their offensive coordinator, hiring Will Hall.  Tulane will enter this game with a sub par offense versus a ULL sub par defense.  Tulane will have problems on the offensive end against the battle tested Cajuns.  ULL will run the ball more effectively than their counterparts which will make this close.  

ULL +3.5

Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Fresno State -6

The Las Vegas Bowl will be the highlight of the bowl matchups featuring the Mountain West Champion Fresno State Bulldogs versus the Pac-12’s Arizona State Sun Devils. 

Perhaps the biggest headline for this game is Sun Devils leading WR N’Keal Harry has chosen to sit out this game.  Fresno State has experience defeating a Pac12 team, taking down UCLA, they also have beaten San Diego State. Arizona State lost to the same Aztec team during the season. 

The Mountain West doesn’t get the respect that they may deserve.  Without Harry, Arizona State doesn’t have much of a chance.  

Fresno State -6

Championship Week Picks

Pac 12: Utah Utes vs. Washington Huskies -5

The Pac 12 may not be heading to the College Football Playoff but a champion must still be crowned and a participant in the Rose Bowl.

Washington hopes to build off the big victory over rival Washington State in their regular season finale. Washington will have the advantage at QB with Jake Browning, who threw for 2,692 yards and 16 touchdowns during the season.  He will lead an offense that will look to jump out early on Utah.

The Huskies defense was able to hold a powerful Washington State offense to 15 points. The Utes don’t possess the offense to compete with Washington.

PicksWashington -5.5

Big 12: Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -7.5

Let me set the scene.  Two hated rivals.  One looking to not only avenge their only loss but also give themselves a shot at the college football playoff.  The other with the chance to beat their rival twice and keep them out of the college football playoff. This game has ESPN 30 for 30 written all over it.

Kyler Murray has been as good as advertised all season.  He will keep that going against a stout Texas defense.  All season Murray has not been the problem.  The Oklahoma defense is going to the be issue in this game.  Texas QB Sam Ehlinger was impressive in their first matchup throwing for 314 yards and two touchdowns.  Texas is a tough matchup for the Sooners,  they are 6-0 ATS versus Oklahoma in their last six.  Oklahoma wins but its close.

PicksTexas +7.5

AAC: Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights -3.5

Mackenzie Milton’s injury season ending injury may be to much to overcome for the “National Champs”.  Memphis enters this game with thoughts of last years epic showdown in the AAC Championship game, losing by a touchdown in double overtime.  The Tigers are out for blood in this one, looking to end the UCF 24-game win streak and any hope for the Knights to make it into the College Football Playoff. 

Memphis will run the ball straight down the throats of the UCF defense, managing the clock and dominating the time of possession. Look for Memphis to stack the box and make unproven true freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. make throws down field.  Even if Mack Jr. does play well it will still be a lot to overcome.  I like Memphis to cover the +5.5 and I may even look to the moneyline.

PicksMemphis +3.5

SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs. Georgia Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have seen Tua in their nightmares for about a year now.  They will have a chance to face their fears on Saturday as they go into the SEC Championship.  

The betting public is going to look at Georgia’s loss to LSU and compare it to the domination Alabama showed against LSU.  I am looking at these two teams differently.  I see a Georgia team fighting for their life with a QB Jake Fromm that has no fear of Alabama. Georgia surrenders the 10th-fewest points per game at 17.2 and the 14th-fewest passing yards per game at 175.1. 

Alabama is a juggernaut of offense but their defense has shown holes this season. Georgia will come out and take an early lead and ride it until the 4th quarter where Tua makes the big plays necessary to overcome them.  This game is going to be a good one and a lot closer then the point spread is going to be. 

PicksGeorgia -13.5

ACC: Clemson Tigers -26.5 vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

I’m not wasting a lot of time on this one.  Pittsburgh is overmatched this one should be a beatdown of epic proportion.  Do I hope I am wrong? Yes.  But unlikely, Clemson rolls into the College Football Playoff. 

PicksClemson Tigers -26.5

Big 10: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

Ohio State opened some eyes last week in their beatdown of rival Michigan last week. The Buckeyes defense finally showed up in the win against Michigan, but they still have to prove that they can consistently play at a high level. As good as the defense looked it has been Dwayne Haskins that has been playing at a NFL level.  He was second only to Gardner Minshew in passing yards this season, had five more touchdown passes than runner-up Will Grier, and torched the FBS’ top defense from Michigan for 396 passing yards, six passing TDs and 62 points in The Game.

Northwestern enters this matchup as over achievers in a matchup that does fit their strengths.  The Wildcats are 79th ranked passing defense in the country giving up 238 yards per game on average.  

The Buckeyes not only need to win this game but they have to show that they are a dominant force.  Urban Meyer won’t take his foot off the gas in this one. 

PicksOhio State -13.5

NCAA Picks ATS Week 12

Season Record: 28-29

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines -28

The Wolverines are on fire.  The Hoosiers kind of stink.  Still 28 points seems like way to much here.  Jim Harbaugh will have a problem keeping his team focused with a rivalry game coming up next week against Ohio State.

Running the ball will not be an option against this stout Michigan defense. Hoosier QB Peyton Ramsey will have to stay accurate, a 67% passer for the season will need to be that accurate to keep his team in the game. Indiana will have to take whats given and continue to move the ball down field, the Hoosiers are solid on third down and will have to continue that on Saturday.

Michigan will most likely grab an early lead, which could be beneficial for Indiana bettors, both teams have much more to play for next week.  Michigan winning by 30 won’t be whats on their mind.  The Wolverines will take a lead early and play smart to avoid injuries.  I like Michigan to win but four touchdowns is too much for me.

PicksIndiana Hoosiers +28

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders  at Kentucky Wildcats -16

MTSU has won six of their past seven games.  While they are not a power five team they still bring in a hot streak that can’t be ignored. Sitting at 5-2 ATS over their last seven games the Blue Raiders are a promising choice for this weekend.

The Wildcats became a basketball school again after last weeks beat down by Tennessee. They are not a strong offensive team scoring 14, 14, 15, 17, and 7 in their October games.  16 points for a team that can’t score is too much. Kentucky will most likely win an ugly game but don’t be shocked to look up Saturday morning and see an early deficit for the Wildcats.

PicksMiddle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +16

Syracuse Orange vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (Neutral Site)

The Irish are in the drivers seat for the College Football playoff.  The decline of USC has left a matchup with the surprising Syracuse Orange as the biggest threat to their chances.

The Fighting Irish have been unstoppable since placing Ian Book into the starting role, despite a rib injury that forced him out against Florida State Head Coach Brian Kelly believes Book will be ready to go.  The Notre Dame offense should be in full force heading into Yankee Stadium, that could me trouble for the Orange.

This game smells like a blowout for the Fighting Irish.  Veteran QB Eric Dungey and Head Coach Dino Babers don’t do anything but cover though.  The Orange have the experience and leadership to keep this close.  This is their second four game win streak of the year, that last streak was ended by the Clemson Tigers, another College Playoff team, the Orange won’t win but double digits is to much for this team.

PicksSyracuse Orange +10

NC State Wolfpack -17 at Louisville Cardinals

This is a straight fading a bad team situation here.  The Louisville Cardinals are just not good.  They have finally solved their coaching situation but will that really make a difference for this season.  Can they magically become a credible team? No.

NC State just got demolished by Wake Forest on primetime.  They are coming for blood.  Louisville is a disaster on both lines and they will get shredded by Ryan Finley if they can’t get pressure.  Look for the NC State passing game to have a field day.  Lousiville may have a direction now but they are already looking to next year.  Bet NC State and take a nap during the game.

PicksNC State Wolfpack -17

UConn Huskies at East Carolina Pirates

I know everyone is excited about this matchup of titans! 1-9 UConn vs 2-7 East Carolina is not a sexy game for college football fans looking to watch games with any meaning.  For football fans that like offense, this one should be fun.

East Carolina has lost 5 straight after starting the season 2-2.  They have played Memphis and Tulane tough over their last two week and were in need for a bit of a break. Their break comes this weekend whent they play a hapless Uconn team that has allowed everyone to steam roll them all season.  East Carolina will throw and throw and throw until they are up by 20.  Then they will throw some more.  East Carolina is not a great team, but they roll in this one.

PicksEast Carolina Pirates -17

Other Picks:

USC -3

OK State +5

Iowa -14.5

Boston College -1.5

 

NCAAF Week 11 Pick ATS

Season Record: 25-25

Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers -17

The Missouri Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the year dominating the Florida Gators last week.  This week they get the Vanderbilt Commodores whom create rather different matchup.

The Commodores can keep up with the Missouri offense, Kyle Shurmur brings a bigger threat in the passing game then the dismal effort shown by Felipe Franks last week. The Commodores can also run the ball effectively, running  for a season-high – against FBS teams – 250 yards with four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas a few weeks ago, led by a 176-yard day from Ke’Shawn Vaughn.

This is just to many points to for a Missouri team that loves to let down its fans.  I see Mizzou winning this game but 17 points seems like to much.

PicksVanderbilt Commodores +17

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers -1.5

Indiana has lost four straight games including a rather embarrassing effort against Minnesota. The Indiana defense has given up over 150 yards rushing in each of its at four games.  When the Terrapin can run the ball, they can win.

The Terrapins also have the ability to cause turmoil on the defensive end. With a suspect Indiana passing game going against a strong secondary, I see turnovers for the Hoosiers.

PicksMaryland Terrapins +1.5

Ohio State -4 at Michigan State

If you just went off of analyst opinions you would think the Ohio State Buckeyes are at .500 or worse.  The Buckeyes sit at 8-1, still technically in the running for a shot at the College Football Playoff.  A win over a strong conference foe could be just the ticket to get them back on track.

Overshardowed by the negatives has been the terrific season by Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins. He set the OSU single-season record for completions against Nebraska and can break the single-season yardage mark with 278 against MSU. The Spartans, usually known for their stingy defense actuallly rank 98th in the country in pass defense.

Haskins will be to much for Michigan State, the Spartans will not be able to produce enoiugh on the offensive end to compete.  Ohio States defense is bad but they don’t have to be great this weekend to cover.

PicksOhio State -4

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils -13.5

I don’t try to have many trends in my College Football bets.  Mainly I just look at the lines I like and go with it.  But I have seemed to find a nice niche in fading the UCLA Bruins. Last weeks Oregon game was easy money and I look to see the same outcome this week.

Two teams going in two different directions.  It’s been a tale of two diffrerent coaches, while Chip Kelly has disappointed in his first season, Herm Edwards has already exceeded expectations.  Arizona State has more weapons and have been tough at home.  Look for the Sun Devils to roll.

PicksArizona State -13.5

 

Other Picks:

Kentucky -5.5

Purdue -11.5

Ole Miss/ Texas A&M Under 67