Best Bets NCAAF Week 3

Cincinnati Bearcats -3.5 at Indiana Hoosiers 

It’s strange to see a Big Ten team as a home underdog to a team outside of the power five.  That’s the case as the Bearcats head to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers.  

Hoosier QB Michael Penix Jr. has struggled since returning from his torn ACL of 2020.  A tough first contest against Iowa led to three picks and an embarrassing open to the Big Ten schedule, that was followed by a dominant effort against Idaho, in that game Penix threw for just 56 yards before getting pulled due to the lopsided score.    The Hoosiers will now have to face a veteran defense that has completely dominated the opposing offense and is coming into this matchup with a lot of confidence.  

The Bearcats have been running the ball consistently behind Jerome Ford who scored three times against Murray State.  Cincinnati’s QB Desmond Ridder has controlled the ball in their first two games throwing for six touchdowns.  The Cincinnati defense forced three picks last week and will put a lot of pressure on Penix Jr which will lead to turnovers and the Hoosier defense will have no answers for the combination of Ridder and Ford.  

This game will be the first test for the top ten ranked Bearcats, the road crowd will get Indians hyped but this is a talent mismatch.  Cincinnati is led by multiple veterans that will be able to handle the energy of the crowd.

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats -3.5

Colorado State Rams at Toledo Rockets -14

The last time the Toledo Rockets were on the field they nearly shocked the football world by giving the Notre Dame Fighting Irish all they could handle. Rockets QB Carter Bradley lead the way going 17/27 for 213 yards, most notably he took care of the ball with zero picks while throwing downfield.  The Rockets have a strong running game led by Bryant Koback who finished last week with 122 yards on just 22 carries.  Koback has over 30 career college touchdowns and was on pace for double digits last season if it was played in full.  

Colorado State has had a horrible start to 2021 losing their first two games, one to South Dakota State and the other blowing a lead against SEC bottom dweller Vanderbilt last week. The Rams gave up an average of 175 yards on the ground and they will have a big problem coming their way with the Rockets run game.  

The Rams have not shown the ability to hold a lead on the defensive end while the Rockets have shown the ability to move the ball at will against any level of competition. Against South Dakota State the Rams were dominated by Jack Rabbit’s RB Pierre Strong Jr, going for 138 yards and two touchdowns. The Rockets will use the run game to control the ball and grind out points.  The Rams will not have an answer on the defensive end which will force them to make mistakes on the offensive end.  

Pick: Toledo Rockets -14

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Buffalo Bulls Total 58

Everyone’s favorite underdogs the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will hit the road against the MAC’s Buffalo Bulls for an exciting mid major match up.  Coastal Carolina is coming off of a thrilling 27 point cover over Kansas while the Bulls are coming off of a disappointing effort against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  This game opened with Coastal Carolina as a 10 point favorite, which ballooned to 13.5 points.

The Chanticleers come out flat against Kansas in their season opener.  Kansas QB Justin Bean was able to move the ball at will in the first half.  Bean did it on his feet while Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease will look to do it with his arm.  Vantrease will be backed up by RB Kevin Marks and Ron Cook Jr.  The Bulls play at an upbeat pace which should cause trouble for the Chanticleers defense.  

Grayson McCall and company will do what they always do and move the ball through the air and on the ground with an assortment of pieces on the offensive end. Tight End Isaiah Likely is an NFL talent while WR Javion Heiligh has scored two tuddys on the season, both will be matchup problems for the Buffalo Bulls. 

This is simple.  We know the Chanticleers will score, Buffalo has a history of scoring.  The Bulls were stopped by Nebraska last week but I think they will bounce back against a Coastal Carolina team that has not shown the ability to shut down any offense. 

Pick Over 58

NCAAF Week 2 Picks

Toledo Rockets at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -16.5

Think the Notre Dame defense may be out to make a statement on Saturday after being thrashed by the Florida State Seminoles?  I think so and they will get a shot to make a statement against a Toledo Rockets team that will look to go fast.  The Rockets have experienced skilled players to put up points but the Fighting Irish have more talent and will have a raucous crowd ready for them in their first true home game since 2019. 

Florida State was able to contain the Notre Dame run game, forcing Jack Coen to beat them (and he did).  Toledo does not have the same type of players to contain RB Kyren Williams.  I think this stays close early but the Fighting Irish pull away in the second half because of the crowd and the run game.  

Pick: Notre Dame -16.5

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin Badgers Total 52

The Badgers were not very impressive in week one against Penn State.  This week the competition changes as they get the MAC’s Eastern Michigan fresh off a beat down of FCS St. Francis.  St. Francis was actually able to move the ball pretty well against Eastern Michigan which spells trouble for the Eagles. 

Wisconsin got a brutal performance from QB Graham Mertz who threw for just 185 yards to go along with two picks.  Wisconsin will look to get out some of their aggression against the Eagles.  The Badgers have a history of dominating MAC teams including Kent State and Central Michigan in 2019 where they won 106-0 over those two matchups. 

Eastern Michigan will look to take all the chances they can in this game and Wisconsin showed that they can give up the big pass play, giving up two long tuddy’s to Penn State last week  Eastern Michigan should be able to put up at least ten points but this game will be dominated by the Wisconsin offense that will need to squash their lesser foe to put wash away the stink of their home loss a week ago.  

Pick: Over 52

Texas Longhorns -7 at Arkansas Razorbacks 

The Razorbacks didn’t look great to start, trailing the Rice Owls 17-7 at one point in the third quarter.  That quickly turned around with 31 unanswered points, led by the running game of QB KJ Jefferson.  Arkansas leaned on the QB’s run game to carry the offense and the turnover game to carry the defense. Arkansas forced three turnovers in the second half which turned the game around in their favor.

Texas quietly had arguably the second best overall performance by any ranked team taking down #23 Ragin Cajuns without much of a sweat.  RB Bjorn Robinson had 170 all purpose yards to go along with 2 scores.  The Longhorns handled a team that was returning most of the starters that had gone 10-1 the season before with an upset over Iowa State.  Texas will now go on the road to face a hungry and improved Arkansas team. 

This will be the first road test for freshman starter Hudson Card and it will be a hostile one. His job will be to manage the game and utilize his star running back and the superior talent.  Card threw for 224 yards before being pulled late in the third quarter due to the lopsided score.  Look for Card to open it up more in this matchup as this will be a marquee showdown of the weekend between Texas and an SEC foe.  This game will come down to which quarterback plays smarter.  KJ Jeffereson cannot play wild, he will likely be given a chance to throw as the Texas defense will look to contain his running ability.  I can see him throwing a few picks down the stretch and allowing the Texas run game to take over and control the game.  

Pick Texas Longhorns -7

NCAAF Picks, Big 12 and Conference USA plus Mizzou

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs 

Mizzou reached their peak getting ranked in the top 25 last week.  They didn’t do anything with their momentum getting obliterated in the second half against the far superior Georgia Bulldogs.  Missouri has still had a solid year under first year Head Coach Eli Drinkwitz.  The Tigers are 5-4 and will be looking to get themselves to a bowl game.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs on the other hand have had a terrible season in their first season with Head Coach Mike Leach, going 2-7.  Their season opening upset over defending national champion LSU is just a blip in the season. 

The Tigers have leaned on RB Larry Roundtree, running for 851 yards and 12 touchdowns.  The Tigers have steady QB play since switching full time to Connor Blazek.  The Tigers have a lot to play for going into this game.  Their defense has given up 30 ppg on the season but Miss St has had some problems finishing drives.  They will need every point they can get in this one as the defense will be without senior defensive lineman Marquiss Spencer.  

Mike Leach has publicly come out about his frustrations for this season and his team has seen a lot of players call it quits due to covid.  Mizzou has a lot to play for in this one and will be inspired to put on a good performance.  They lean on Roundtree and out score the Bulldogs.  The Tigers roll and it won’t be close. 

Pick: Missouri -1

UAB Blazers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

UAB will enter its third straight Conference USA Championship game against the team that had been dominating the conference for most of the season.  Marshall’s shocking 20-0 loss to RIce two weeks ago was their lone setback of the season. The Thundering Herd are 5-3 against the spread this season led primarily by their defense.  Marshall has given up just 10 points per game this season.  An outstanding number no matter what conference you are in.   As an overall unit they are ranked 35th in the nation.  

Marshall’s freshman QB Grant Wells has had a few weeks to think about his worst performance of the season against RIce.  If you take the Rice game out, Wells has been solid for the Marshall offense throwing for 16 TD and 4 interceptions.   The Thundering Herd will go back to the basics on offense to allow the young QB to just manage the game and let the defense do its thing.  

UAB has been killed by turnovers this season.  The Blazers have 15 turnovers this season including multiple turnovers in 4 straight games before ending the streak last week against Rice.  UAB has to hold onto the ball to have a chance in this game.  Marshall has a better offense and defense.  This will be a low scoring defensive showcase that Marshall will dominate.  

Pick: Marshall -5

Oklahoma Sooners vs.  Iowa State Cyclones

Oklahoma has turned its season around after a disastrous start that included a loss to Iowa State .  Freshman QB Spencer Rattler has progressed through his early struggles to put together a nice season with 2,512 yards and 24 TD.  It has been the Sooner defense that has stepped up the most, especially against the run.  Oklahoma has allowed just 93 yards per game on the ground, ranking them 7th in the nation.  

Iowa State has had a great season.  RB Bryce Hall was a one man show in his last meeting with Oklahoma running for 139 yards and 2 TD in their first meeting.  Hall did that to most opposing defenses this year running for 1,375 yards and 17 TD.  The Cyclones are one of the slower offensive units in college football.  They will look to utilize Hall to move the ball while eating up the clock.  Their commitment to the run has allowed QB Brock Purdy to find success downfield.  If Iowa State wants to win this game they have to be able to win the battle on the ground.  

Oklahoma has had two weeks to prepare for this game.  Their last game on December 5th against Baylor.  Lincoln Riley should have his freshman QB prepared for this but I think this is going to come down to the stable play of Brock Purdy.  Purdy has been great down the stretch throwing no interceptions in their last three games and connecting on 80% of his passes.  The Iowa State offensive line will keep Purdy upright and they will control the clock with their superior run game.  

Pick: Iowa State +5.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 18-13

NCAAF Picks ATS

Central Michigan Chippewas at Toledo Rockets

The Toledo Rockets enter this game with one of the best passing attacks in college football.  The teams they have played make that easier statistically, but the MAC is the MAC.  They bring  that top 8 rated passing attack up against a team that has had serious problems stopping the pass.  The Chippewas are coming off an embarrassing loss to Ball State where they were shredded through the air for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Things should not change much against Toledo.

Toledo QB Carter Bradley was impressive last week throwing for 432 yards and 3 tds against Northern Illinois.  Bradley was forced into action because of the injury to starter Elliot Peters.  Whether it is Peters or Bradley under center shouldn’t matter much against the putrid defense of Central Michigan.  If it is Bradley, he will have an additional week likely taking more snaps with the first team.  The Rockets offense has been dynamite all season averaging 37.2 PPG, that will continue on Saturday. 

Central Michigan’s defense has problems but the offense has still been solid averaging 33 PPG.  Ty Brook took over at QB last week and put on a solid showing with 188 yards and 3 tds.  Central Michigan will need him to stay accurate to compete, the Toledo defense has been pretty solid versus the run. 

This game’s total seems way too low.  Both offenses move fast and score fast.  The 11 point spread means book makers see Toledo running away with it, that means Central will be forced to move even faster.  I am going with the over and considering laying the points with Toledo.  For now, stick with the over. 

Pick: Over 52.5


North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes 

Miami is 8-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Clemson.  Quietly they own a great record and have been solid against the spread at 6-3.  Miami has a great QB in D’Eriq King.  King is coming off of a dominant game against Duke, they shut out the Blue Devils, winning 45-0.  Miami has won five straight games against inferior ACC teams.  Their defense has inflated numbers against some of the lower level teams in their conference.  When they have played teams that bring more on offense they have given up points.  They gave up 41 to NC State, 34 to Louisville and 42 to Clemson.  On Saturday they will have a problem in the North Carolina Tarheels.  

The Tarheels continue to be underrated this season.  Tar Heels QB Sam Howell is having a great season, he threw for over 500 yards against Wake Forest before dealing with the stout Notre Dame defense that shut them down.  They followed that up by trouncing Western Carolina.  Howell has some big time help in the backfield with the two-headed monster of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.  The running game could be the difference, both teams have great offenses and shaky defenses.  North Carolina controlling the ball will be a big deal.  Miami has continually not shown up against prime offensive teams. 

The Tarheels have the advantage on the sidelines with Mack Brown.  They have the firepower to match Miami and a much more reliable running game to control the ball with a lead.  This will be a high scoring game that UNC will prevail in because of their running game. 

Pick: Tarheels ML, Way over 67

Navy Midshipmen at Army Black Knights

The Army Black Knights rely on the run game. Their triple option game has led them to a 7-2 record with wins over Georgia Southern, UTSA and Mercer. Not exactly top notch competition but still they should have an advantage as they step up against a Navy team that’s achilles heel fits perfectly for the Black Knights. 

The Army rush attack ranks third in the country averaging 296 yards per game. Navy gives up 223 yards per game ranking 196th.  The Black Knights are coming off of a victory over Georgia Southern who plays a similar run first style as both of these teams.  Army will control the line of scrimmage as they have the advantage on both sides of the ball. 

This game is always fun.  Army has the advantage of the home field, it doesn’t matter how many people will be there.  Army covers.  

Pick: Army -7

Overall Season Picks Record: 14-12

NCAAF Picks ATS December 5

Buffalo Bulls at Ohio Bobcats

The Buffalo Bulls seem to continue to be underestimated.  Last week they seemed to be a popular fade against Kent State at home.  They went out and literally ran all over them.  RB Jaret Patterson is making a case as the most dominant player in all of college football that is not a QB.  Patterson is putting up Madden on easy type numbers, running for 409 yards and 8 touchdowns against Kent State.    

Ohio has put up some impressive numbers on offense against the bottom tier of the MAC.  The Bobcats dominated Bowling Green and Akron over the last two weeks putting up 94 points over those two games.  Buffalo brings a much more powerful offense to the table.  The last time Ohio faced an offense that could match them was Central Michigan where they gave up 30 points.  They had issues stopping the run against the Chippewas and that opened up the passing game.  

Ohio will not be able to stop the Bulls offense.  If they stack against the run Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease will pick them apart.  The Bulls defense has given up a lot of points but have locked down when necessary.  Buffalo will continue their MAC dominance.  

Pick: Buffalo Bulls -11

Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears

Oregon will need a bounce back after their loss to rival Oregon State.  They get a matchup with the winless California Golden Bears. The Oregon offense has been stellar this season scoring at least 35 points in every game this year.  QB Tyler Shough has stepped in for Justin Herbert nicely throwing for 1,158 yards and 11 TD and 2 rushing TD.  Along with a solid run game led last week by Travis Dye, Oregon has been moving the ball on the ground with ease.  Their run game will get even better with the return of CJ Verdell.   

The Ducks have problems stopping the run.  Oregon State RB Jemar Jefferson made swiss cheese out of the Oregon defense, going for 226 yards and 2 TD.  California found its running game last week versus against Stanford, going to 241 yards.  They should be able to continue their running trend against Oregon who has been hemorrhaging big plays all season.  

Oregon’s defense has not found its way this season but their offense should be enough o carry the load to a victory.  This game will be back and forth early but Oregon will pull away enough to cover in the end.  California should still be able to do their part against the lame Duck Oregon defense. 

Pick: Oregon Ducks -10, over 58

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs

Vanderbilt is coming off of a 41-0 beating at the hands of Mizzou.  They get to face a Georgia Bulldogs team that has been stingy on defense all season. They currently rank 22nd overall in points against, that includes two games with Florida and Alabama.  Georgia’s defense will shut them down and they will coast to an early lead.  

Once the Bulldogs establish their lead they will just run the ball and kill time.   This game looks like it will likely be a shutout.  The Georgia offense has found itself with JT Daniels at the helm, they should be able to put up points easily but they will not get to 54.  Their pace of play ranks in the high 70s and should move even slower with the second string coming in around the 3rd quarter.  

Pick: Under 53.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 12-10

NCAAF Picks ATS- Nov 28

Kent State Golden Flashes at Buffalo Bulls 

I am one of the very few that enjoys betting MAC games.  They are usually very unpredictable but in reality all gambling is unpredictable. We are going to be greeted with a great MAC matchup this weekend when Kent State goes to Buffalo.  The Bulls have been good to me this season putting up 49,42,42 in their first three games this season covering the spread and hitting the over in 2 of 3.  

Buffalo is led by a balanced offensive attack thanks to the emergence of Kyle Vantrease at QB.  They will obviously lean on the run game led by Jaret Patterson who came off of a record setting 301 yards rushing against Bowling Green.  Despite being a team that leans on the run the Bulls still move the ball at a fast rate.  They score quickly and that matches up nicely against a poor opposing defense that also moves quickly. 

Kent State will be able to match the pace of the Bulls to start the game.  They have an offense that is just as intimidating.  Putting up 62 and 69 in back to back games against bottom dwellers Bowling Green and Akron.  The Golden Flashes have an MAC elite QB in Dustin Crum coming off of 342 yards against Akron.  Crum is a solid talent but the offense is not what worries me about Kent State.  They will be able to put up points but it will be the fact that they have no answer for the explosiveness that Buffalo will bring.  Remember this Kent State defense just gave up 28 points to Akron.  This will be a fun game that likely hits the over in the 3rd quarter.  In the end Jarret Patterson puts it away late.  Rolling with the Bulls and the over. 

Pick: Over 67.5, Buffalo Bulls -7

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines

The matchup up of Penn State and Michigan would normally be a potential elimination game for the college football playoff.  This year it’s more like something that is an alternative on ESPNU.  While the records are not where these two programs would want them to be this is still a game that the fan bases can use for bragging rights in the Big Ten. 

The Wolverines made the switch last week at QB, removing Joe Milton for Cade McNamara.  The red shirt freshman McNamara immediately made an impact on the Wolverine offense, throwing for 4 TD’s and 260 yards.  He led them back against Rutgers, a loss that would be unacceptable to big blue.  Michigan will get to face a defense that has given up 180 points over their last five games.  Penn State’s issues on defense could open up some fun for the Wolverine’s new QB.  

Penn State will have to make up for their defensive issues by putting up points.  The main two themes for the Nittany Lions is turnovers and injuries.  Penn State loves to turn the ball over, they have a whopping 13 turnovers this season.  They will likely play this game without star tight end Pat Freiermuth which will limit the offensive pieces that QB Sean Clifford will trust.  

Both of these teams have a lot of questions without many answers.  Michigan seemed to find the spark they needed last week, Harbaugh may have found something in McNamara.  Penn State will be missing some key pieces on the offensive side and that will be the difference.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -2

LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies 

I hate unders about as much as I like gambling. This game with Myles Brennan would scream over to me, but he is still not there and I am perplexed at this being as high as it is.  The LSU offense has not been moving the ball at the same rate. Freshman QB TJ Finley is coming off of a nice game against Arkansas, throwing for 271 yards while not throwing a single interception.  The key to their victory though was the establishment of the run game.  LSU does not have the quick hitting powerful offense that they had last season and at the beginning of this season.  The way they win is by controlling the tempo on the ground.  

Texas A&M will enter this game looking to make a powerful statement by dominating the defending national champs.  In a similar fashion to LSU they want to control the tempo, they do that by playing slowly.  They rank 119th in team tempo this season, but lead the conference in time of possession.  They are also the top third down team in the conference. 

These teams are both going to play a slower style that should be won by the team with the more efficient offense.  That is Texas A&M.  They win, and it stays under.

Pick: Under 63

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-9

NCAAF Picks ATS Nov. 21

Cincinnati Bearcats -6 at Central Florida Knights

The Bearcats are on the warpath after the destruction of East Carolina on Friday night.  The offense has been the story for Cincy, scoring at least 38 points in their last four games. QB Desmond Ridder has been  His development throwing the ball has finally caught up with his athleticism on the ground.  His balance is seen as he has passed for 886 yards while rushing for 398.  Ridder along with Bearcats RB Gerrid Doaks have been a two headed monster on the ground.  The Central Florida defense has a problem defending the run, giving up 189 yards per game. As a team Central Florida is giving up 447 yards per game. 

For the Knights to have a chance they have to be great on offense behind QB Dillon Gabriel.  He leads a team that is #1 in the nation in total yardage per game at 619.  Gabriel will likely have nightmares of his last matchup against Cincinnati where the Bearcats picked him off three times leading to Central Florida’s first loss in 19 games.  This will be the toughest defense the Knights have played all season. Cincinnati ranks top 10 in most defensive categories and have already shut down three prevalent American Conference offenses, Houston, SMU and Memphis.  This should be a good game but the Bearcats defense will force turnovers and allow them to cover in the end.  

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats -6

Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack

The Liberty Flames will travel to Raleigh North Carolina to take on the NC State Wolfpack in a game that will see two high powered offenses create fireworks.  The Flames have been one of the biggest surprises in college football with an 8-0 record and a win over Virginia Tech.  The Flames have won on the back of QB Malik Willis, who is coming off of a huge game against Western Carolina, throwing for 309 yards, 3TDS and adding two rushing TDs.  The Flames have had no issue putting up points this season averaging 39 per game (17th in the nation). 

North Carolina State has had an up and down season.  They sit at 5-3 after a 38-22 destruction of Florida State.  NC State has put up points as well this season averaging 33 per game versus much stiffer consistent talent then Liberty.  The Wolfpack are lead by QB Bailey Hockmann coming off of 265 yards and 3TD’s against the Seminoles.  He will be the best passer that Liberty has seen this year and will be trouble for a defense that has surprised many this year.  

Both of the teams will move fast and put up points in a hurry.  This game will be fun and profitable for over bettors. 

Pick: Over 67

Michigan State Spartans vs. Maryland Terrapins -6

Michigan State has been on an early roller coaster ride this season.  Reaching a high point in a victory over rival Michigan two weeks ago, they immediately plunged against Indiana getting shut out 24-0.  The Spartans have a real problem at QB.  Rocky Lombardi may be color blind as he continues to throw the ball to the wrong jersey.  With an amazing seven interceptions in just four games got him pulled late against Indiana.  He will not have to face a Maryland defense that forced three turnovers two weeks ago against Penn State.  

The Spartans will have to run the ball on Saturday to control the clock and keep Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa off the field.  Tua’s brother has begun to make a name for himself dissecting Big Ten defenses after his disastrous debut.  Tulia is hitting 72% of passes for a total of 676 yards and six touchdowns since the loss to Northwestern.  The Spartans will be able to plug on the run game but slowing down Tulia will not be likely.  

Michigan State will not be able to keep up with the Maryland offense which will ultimately be their downfall.  Spartans are rebuilding and they get a rested and fresh Maryland team that has found a great flow offensively.  

Pick: Maryland -6

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-7

November 14 NCAAF Picks ATS

Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

I rolled with Minnesota last week against Illinois with a similar line.  The Illinis have serious problems stopping the run and they will have to deal with some similar problems on Saturday versus the improving Rutgers Scarlet Knights. 

Illinois will once again be without their starting QB Brandon Peters.  Backup Coran Taylor looked overmatched against a very subpar Minnesota defense.  He will have to face a Rutgers defense that will bring a lot of pressure on the QB.  Rutgers has had two straight games where they have given up a lot of offense but those two teams were Ohio State and Indiana.  The top two offensive teams in the Big Ten this year. 

Rutgers looked great in week one versus Michigan State.  They followed it up with two losses but were able to put up points in both of those games.  The Rutgers ability to score will be the difference in the matchup.  With Brandon Peters still unable to play the Illini offense will not be able to keep up again.  

Pick: Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -10.5 at Troy Trojans

The undefeated Chanticleers enter this game looking to continue their dominance over the conference.  Their run game behind Torrance Marable has been the key factor in controlling the game and dominating opposing defenses.  Coastal Carolina has been efficient with the ball on offense, turning it over just 1.3 per game.  The run game has been heavy and effective allowing QB Grayson McCall to control the pocket.  He has thrown just 1 interception in 6 games and been sacked just three times total.  

Troy is coming off of a loss to Georgia Southern where they gave up 326 yards on the ground.  Troy’s defensive strength comes from their secondary which is bad news for them as the Coastal Carolina offense is very run oriented.  Marable and McCall both have the ability to move the ball on the ground which will open up plays downfield.  The run game will control the ball and the clock.  

The Chanticleers rank 11th in the nation in time of possession.  They will control the ball and the game.  Coastal Carolina is getting great value, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the road.  Still not enough respect being given for Coastal Carolina,  they wll win by 17. 

Pick: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -10.5

Texas State Bobcats at Georgia Southern Eagles -10

Texas State is 1-8 with a bad defense.  By bad I mean, very bad.  The Bobcats have given up 35 ppg and 475 ypg.  They will have to face off with a Georgia Southern team that is coming in with two straight wins. The Eagles are 3-1 ATS at home this season with covers over South Alabama and Troy.  

Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts doesn’t throw much but he dominates the ground game as the second leading rusher on the Eagles with 474 yards and 3 TD’s.  Georgia Southern have rode the run effectively all season and will have their way with Texas State who is giving up 190 per game on the ground. 

The Georgia Southern defense will be able to get tons of pressure on Texas State QB Tyler Vitt. The Texas State line has given up a staggering 22 sacks on the season.  The pressure will be to much for Vitt and company to overcome and they have to score to keep up with the powerful Eagles offense.  

Pick: Georgia Southern Eagles -10

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-5

NCAAF Picks ATS Nov 7

Boston College Golden Eagles -14 at Syracuse Orange

I was a big advocate of fading Kansas early this season.  My fade attention has now turned to the Syracuse Orange.  I loved Wake Forest last week and that paid off in a major way, I am looking at a similar story in this matchup.  This is the second week in a row that people are overvaluing the Orange’s showing against Clemson.  

Syracuse has given up a lot of points this year (33.29 per game).  The biggest problem has been a complete inability to stop the run.  The Orange give up 222 yards per game on the ground.   While Boston College no longer has AJ Dillon in the backfield they still have the ability to gain yards on the ground against the Cuse defense.  Boston College QB Paul Jurkovec has passed for 1,875 yards with 14 touchdowns.  He will have a chance to throw down field after BC establishes the run.  

Boston College is coming off of a tough loss to Clemson but they will have the chance to re-establish themselves against a putrid defense on Saturday.  This game should be closer to a 17 point spread.  The Golden Eagles are too strong on offense for Syracuse to keep this one close.  Give me BC.  #fadeCuse

Pick: Boston College -14

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats -3.5

We are currently in a world wher Northwestern football is favored in a Big Ten football game.  The Wildcats are the most improved team in the conference, beginning the season 2-0 with wins against Maryland and at Iowa.  The Maryland victory looks even better after the Terps ran all over Minnesota last week.  The key to the Northwestern success was through the running game. They feature two very talented runners in Isaiah Browser and Drake Anderson. Browser is coming off of running for 82 yards against Iowa while Anderson was held in check in week two, he showed his explosive ability in week one going for 100 yards on just ten carries.

Nebraska started strong against powerhouse Ohio State in their first game, eventually the talent of the Buckeyes was too much as they fell 52-17.  Nebraska will need more from QB Adrian Martinez through the air.  He threw for just 105 yards versus Ohio State, he did lead the team in rushing with 85 yards and a touchdown.  Martinez will have trouble relying on his legs as the Wildcats have some of the top linebackers in the conference that will sure to have their eyes on him as he trys to leave the pocket. 

Northwestern will be able to control the ball with the run game and contain Adrian Martinez.  This game will be close but eventually the Wildcats will take control and run away with the victory, literally. 

Pick: Northwestern -3.5

North Carolina Tarheels -10.5 at Duke Blue Devils

North Carolina is coming off of a loss to Virginia.  Their second loss in the ACC since finding themselves in uncharted waters,  top ten in college football.  Mac Brown’s squad has squandered any chance of an ACC title or being legit competition for the big boys of the conference.  They have a chance on Saturday to take out some of their frustration on rival Duke.  

Duke’s problem will be stopping UNC QB Sam Howell.  One of the best in the country, Howell is coming off of a game where he threw for 400 yards and four touchdowns.  Duke has been middle of the pack against the pass most of the season but they have given up points to good offenses.  Behind Howell UNC should be able to get an early lead due to the fact that Duke gives up yards in chunks.  They are giving up 7.4 yards per attempt this season.  

With Carolina jumping out to an early lead they will force the Blue Devils to throw the ball to make up the advantage.  Duke QB Chase Brice is capable but has had a serious issue with turnovers.  Brice has thrown 11 interceptions while being sacked 22 times.  Duke’s only chance will be to hold down the talented Tarheel offense,  a task that seems unlikely.  

Pick: North Carolina -10.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 7-4

NCAAF Picks ATS, Week 9

Temple Owls at Tulane Green Wave

The total for this game has taken a tumble from 64 to 59.5.  The drop of this magnitude is something I am going to jump on. 

These two teams have not stopped anyone. Tulane is coming off of giving up over 600 yards to UCF.  Temple is coming off of giving up 31 second half points to Memphis.   While they both played offensive oriented teams the lack of defense from both of these teams will transition to their next matchup.  

Temple was able to counter the Memphis offense with gaining some yard of their own behind QB  Anthony Russo.  The Owls gained 489 yards and got 30 first downs. Russo will have an advantage against a Tulane offense that has given up over 400 yards a game through the air. 

Tulane will rely on their running game averaging 232 yards per game (9th in the country).  Stephon Huderson leads Tulane with 397 rushing yards along with 3 TDs while Cameron Carroll has a team-high 7 touchdowns to go along with 341 rushing yards.

Temple is averaging 34 points, Tulane is averaging 36 points.  Add those together and you get 70 points per game. These two teams are a combined 5-1-1 to the over this season and it will continue on Saturday.  

Pick: Over 59.5

Oklahoma Sooners -14 at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oklahoma is coming off of two straight ATS covers against Texas and TCU.  They will continue to run their way through the Texas teams on Saturday versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The Sooners have not only won their last two but they also covered both of those games.  Matching up with Texas Tech  should allow for fireworks for Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler. 

Texas Tech is coming off of a game where they gave up 438 yards against a subpar West Virginia offense.  They will face a major step up in offensive competition.   The Red Raiders have given up tons of yards through the air.  The secondary has given up over 300 yards in three of five games this year and should be the fourth this weekend.  

This comes down to the fact that Texas Tech will not be able to get enough pressure on Rattler to force turnovers.  The Oklahoma defense made an appearance last week holding TCU to just 14 points.  Texas Tech will have no chance to keep up with the pace of the Sooners. 

Pick: Oklahoma Sooners  -14

Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11 at Syracuse Orange

Wake Forest is coming off of an upset win over Virignia Tech where they were eleven pount underdogs.  The win is their third straight.  They have won by causing turnovers, 10 in total over their last three victories.  Wake is at a +10 turnover margin in their victories. 

Syracuse is coming off of a “moral” victory by covering the spread against the vaunted Clemson Tigers.  Their performance against Clemson has given the market a false idea taht Syracuse is better than they really are.  Syracuse lost starting QB Tommy Devito early in the season against Duke.  Senior Rex Culpepper has not been good completing just 43% of his passes since taking over as the starter.  The lack of passing attack has killed the run game. Syracuse is only averaging 91 yard per game on the season.  

Much like the Demon Deacons, Syracuse has been turning opposing teams over (2.8 per game). Wake’s QB Sam Hartman has not thrown an interception this season.  He is considered a game manager that will not look to throw the ball down field.  In this matchup he won’t need to.  He will rely on the two-headed running monster.  Sophomore Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 449 yards and eight touchdowns on 90 attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Junior Christian Beal-Smith has added 71 carries for 385 yards and four scores, picking up 5.4 yards per attempt.

Syracuse has had a tough schedule.  They sit at the bottom of college football giving up nearly 500 total yards.  The run game will dominate and Sam Hartman will do enough to keep the defense honest.  This matchup reminds me of the Orange’s matchup with Liberty earlier this year.  Wake Forest will control the ball with the run game

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11

Overall Season Picks Record: 6-3