Month: January 2020

Top 7 Offensive 2nd Baseman in MLB

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When I was a kid second base was my favorite position.  I grew up idolizing Delino Deshields, Fernando Vina and Craig Biggio.  The best part about second base is that you can be a little out of shape but still are a good athlete, you can have some power but don’t have to hit 35 homers.  A great second baseman is like having a wild card that can take a team from good to great. I want to break down the best offensive second baseman heading into 2020.  The players I have on this list are projected to be primarily second baseman this year. Guys like Javier Baez, Matt Carpenter (lol), Jose Ramirez and one of my favorites Gleyber Torres are not actually going to be 2nd baseman this season.  Why top seven? Why not? Let’s do it.

7. Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals

Wong is the best defensive second baseman in baseball. He had not lived up to his hype as a prospect on the offensive end until the 2019 season.  His slash line of .285/.361/.423 were all career highs. Wong added speed to his repertoire in 2019 with 24 stolen bases.  

Entering the 2020 season the Cardinals will be relying on a lot of youth including Tyler O’Neil, Tommy Edman and Harrison Bader to pick up the slack of the departed Marcell Ozuna.  Wong, now a veteran by those standards will hopefully be placed in the upper part of the order giving him the chance to produce in more areas. His power numbers are not nearly on the level of others on the list but he can be an above average major league hitter.

6. Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

Brandon Lowe only played in 82 games in 2019.  In that amount of time he performed beyond what anyone could have imagined.  Lowe’s .336 on-base percentage is a little lower than I would like to see from a projected leadoff hitter but his power is hard to ignore.  Lowe’s slugging percentage was .514 was one of the tops at the position. A healthy Lowe should be a candidate for 30 homers. His strikeout rate is worrisome but the more at bats he gets while healthy the better he will be. 

Lowe needs to get better at hitting lefties and reduce the strikeouts but he has the ability to be an impact performer if able to stay healthy. 

5. DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

This would have been the spot for Gleyber Torres but with his move to full time SS LeMahieu jumps to this spot.  I love DJ, he brings stability to the top of a lineup. LeMahieu had what could be considered a career season. I know he won a batting title in 2016 but DJ had not hit over 66 RBI in a season before 2019.  LeMahieu showed unprecedented power last season, it would be hard to believe that he could do repeat the numbers with RISP but DJ still plays in a baby ballpark and should have a solid season.

4. Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves

Ozzie Albies is just 23 years old! A lot of the talk in the league was about Ronald Acuna, as it should be, but the emergence of Albies.  While being grossly underpaid Albies performed like a future star in 2019 especially down the stretch, hitting .302 in the second half. Albies great second half propelled the Braves, allowing them to dominate the National League East.

Albies will enter the season with high expectations.  He brings multiple tools to the table, power, speed and switch hitting. Albies has a shot to be a 20/20 player while hitting over .300.  At such a young age he will only be able to improve as the years go on.

3. Keston Huira, Milwaukee Brewers

Keston will be #1 by the end of the season, but going into the season I have to take into account the potential of a sophmore slump.  Hiura’s 30% strikeout rate scares me a bit but the power he brings is legit and he will have back the protection of Christian Yelich. Assuming he will hit behind Yelich there is no way that teams will elect to face the former MVP over the second year player. 

Hiura’s power is legit and he smashes at Miller Park. Hiura added nine steals to his 19 dingers and 50 runs scored in only 84 games last season. 

2. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

Jose Altuve is under a lot of scrutiny.  But we have to ignore that when you are ranking, all I am looking at is the 37 bombs Altuve hit last season.  Altuve is still on 29 years old despite the fact that it feels like he has been playing for a lifetime. Altuve’s power versus righties was the most impressive feat of all.  20 of Altuve’s 31 homers were against righties, with a slugging percentage of .505.  

Altuve’s home and away splits were obviously different but he still was above the norm with a 119 WRC+.  Altuve will have to ignore the press that comes with the sign stealing scandal. The Astros lineup is still stacked and should provide the protection he needs to succeed on the offensive end.

1. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Picking up Starling Marte allows us to get excited about the possibility of potentially the best all around player in baseball (other than Mike Trout) getting cemented at the position of the gods second base.  Marte is an all around hitter with a slash line that put him right in the middle of the NL MVP race .329/.389/.592 and a 150 WRC+.  

Ketel still projects as the potential leadoff hitter for Arizona due to Starling Marte’s lackluster OBP.  If Starling is able to move into the leadoff role Ketel should be able to thrive with speed on the base paths.  Marte at #1 may seem odd but this guy at just 26 has worked his way up from promising prospect to legit MLB star.

Milwaukee Brewers 2020 Season Outlook

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The Milwaukee Brewers made it to the National League Wild Card game in 2019 thanks to a dominant second half of the season.  The Brewers went an amazing 42-29 in the second half propelling them into the playoffs and nearly catching the St. Louis Cardinals for the division lead.  What made this even more amazing is that they had much of their success without the league’s MVP Christian Yelich. 

Key Losses:  

Position Players: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames and Trent Grisham


Pitchers: Jordan Lyles, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Drew Pomeranz and Junior Guerra

Key Additions: 

Position Players: Luis Urias, Jedd Gyroko, Omar Narvaez, Avisail Garcia and Ryon Healy

Pitchers: Eric Lauer, Josh Lindblom and Brett Anderson

Lineup Questions:

How do you replace Yasmani Grandal?

Yasmani Grandal signed a bargain deal with Milwaukee in 2019, he paid off his price giving the Brewers a 5.2 WAR, ranked just second behind JT Realmuto.  Grandal was a major reason that the Brewers were able to handle the loss of Yelich providing stability in the middle and sometimes top of the order.  

With Grandal out the Brewers went out and added Omar Narvaez.  LOVE this move. Narvaez is the perfect replacement on the offensive end for Grandal.  Quietly one of the best upcoming offensive catchers in all of baseball, Narvaez smashed 22 homers last season in Seattle and was able to produce a comparable slash line with Grandal

Grandal: .246/.380/.466

Narvaez: .278/.353/.460

Narvaez doesn’t bring the pitch framing that Grandal does but he is serviceable and will be a perfect split with defensive minded Manny Pina in 2020.

Whos on the corners? 

Milwaukee will have to replace all of their corner infield players in 2020.  Ryan Braun will be moving to first base a position he has little experience playing while third base projects to be a mix of the returning Eric Sogard, Luis Urias and Jedd Gyroko.  

Eric Sogard is coming off of a career season splitting time between the Blue Jays and Rays, providing both teams with a consistent bat finishing with a 2.8 WAR.  Sogard will likely be primarily a 3B/SS option for Milwaukee as they have established Keston Hiura as the face of the franchise along with Christian Yelich.  

The Brewers would love for Luis Urias to take over 3rd base.  Urias could see time at shortstop if Orlando Arcia is not able to hit at the major league level.  Picking up Urias was a great move by the organization, adding a guy that was recently a top 35 prospect. Arcia has shown the ability to be a defensive force but the offense has not had an impact on the major league level. I could see Urias being the full time shortstop by the end of the 2020 season.

Does the rotation have enough to compete?

Milwaukee has found success without the need of a strong rotation for two years.  They have found a way to piece together wins by getting the most out of the starters they have and utilizing a stellar bullpen. 2020 will see a similar approach.  The rotation will be headlined by 2019 All Star Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff was establishing himself as the ace of the staff before an oblique injury sidelined him for most of the second half of the season.  With Woodruff the Brewers have a starter that they can build their rotation around. The organization moved on from mainstays Zach Davies and Chase Anderson in the offseason to open up spots for a few question marks. 

The projected rotation at the moment according to ESPN and Rotochamp would be Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser, Josh Lindblom, Brett Anderson, Eric Lauer and Brent Suter.  If you were counting that would be six names for five spots. The Brewers will most likely go with a five man rotation but outside of Woodruff the pitchers behind him have not been known for their ability to pitch long into games.   

The most intriguing players that will be given a chance would be former Padre Eric Lauer, 25, has the most potential of the projected starters.  Lauer is still young and was able to provide a terrible Padres squad with a 2.4 WAR in 2019 but his xFIP was pedestrian at 4.77. If Lauer can handle the smaller confines of Miller Park he should be a valuable piece in the long term for Milwaukee.  

Josh Lindblom is an interesting piece to the puzzle.  2019 saw a revitalization of his career while pitching in the KBO, receiving the Most Valuable Player award.  Lindblom has spent time in the majors with four different clubs most recently with the Pirates in 2017. Can he have similar success as pitchers like Miles Mikolas have had after seemingly reinventing themselves in other leagues?  Only time will tell. 

The Brewers rotation will be the biggest question as they head into spring training.  Their success beyond just the division will be determined by their health and progression.

Conclusion

The Brewers made a lot of changes in the offseason.  Players like Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez should thrive in more hitter friendly atmospheres. A full year of Keston Huira and  Christian Yelich being healthy for opening day should also be a spark to the offense. Josh Hader and company will be great as they have been for the last few years.  It’s about the rotation, if the rotation can take big strides in 2020 Milwaukee will be a force in the central again.  

If the Brewers find themselves in need of help going into the trade market they will have some problems as they have depleted what was once a very promising farm system.  Currently they rank 29th in baseball according to Bleacher Report. This team is built to compete right now, they are young and have a terrific manager in Craig Counsell. I would project them as a clear contender for a Wild Card spot heading into the season, anything past that would be a surprise.

The Story of Marcell Ozuna and the St. Louis Cardinals

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Marcell Ozuna signe a 1-year $18 million dollar “prove it” contract with the Atlanta Braves officially ending his two-year relationship with the St. Louis Cardinals.  The St. Louis Cardinals were in need of an impact bat in the middle of their order. Long gone were the days of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday anchoring the middle of the order striking fear into the opposing pitching staff.  Ozuna had two years left on his contract when he was picked up in 2017. Those two years were supposed to be a showcase of his excellency, forcing the Cardinals to make him a huge offer cementing him as the new face of baseball in the gateway to the west. Ozuna was going to cash in and both the player and the team will live happily ever after.  That would have been a great story unfortunately professional sports is not a fairy tale.

The Cardinals picked up a 27-year old, two-time all-star coming off of a breakout season where he posted a .312/.376/.548 slash line to go along with 37 homers, 128 RBI and a gold glove.  It wasn’t former teammate Christian Yelich that was the future MVP, Ozuna was considered as the prized piece. The Cardinals gave three pitching prospects Daniel Castano, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara and outfielder Magneuris Sierra for Ozuna.  Alcantara was named an all-star in 2019 giving him one more than Ozuna in his time with St. Louis while Zac Gallen has become a part of the rotation for the Arizona Diamondbacks.  

When the acquisition was made the Cardinals looked like the clear winner adding the power that was going to take them out of the dreaded middle pack of the central division.  The days of Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyroko and Randal Grichuck batting cleanup were over. Finally a power bat to accommodate the on-base prowess of Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler.  The 2017 Cardinals needed this bat.

2017 Team Stats (Non-Pitcher)

ISO: 176

Slug: .439

WRC+: 107

Entering 2018 was exciting with their new power bat the Cardinals had to improve their offense…right?

2018 Team Stats (Non-Pitcher)

ISO: .169

Slug: .419

WRC+: 100

Ozuna’s first season in St. Louis was marred by a shoulder injury, limiting his production.  His slash line .243/.330/.435 was not nearly as productive as his final year with Miami. Coming into the 2019 season the team added Paul Goldschmidt to go along with Ozuna, that should have helped…right?

2019 Team Stats (Non Pitcher)

ISO: .177

Slug: .428

WRC+: 105

The Cardinal offense continued to be mediocre in 2019 even though Ozuna was electric to begin the season hitting ten homers in his first 27 games, he floundered down the stretch, hitting just .219 in the second half.  Ozuna had a chance to erase two years of sub-par production and looked to be on the right track in the NLDS, hitting two homers with a slash line of .429/.478/.857 in five games against his new team. Continuing that production could have changed the opinion of the public on Ozuna, unfortunately the NLCS wiped away any memory of dominance at the plate.  The numbers are literally not worth typing at this point.  

Two years with Marcell Ozuna did not change the offense for the St. Louis Cardinals.  Ozuna provided the fanbase with some mathom shots that showed the potential he brings to any lineup but he came into the 2018 season out of shape and injured.  His swing produced long home runs but resembled a cleanup hitter at your local slow pitch softball league. Those guys can hit the ball pretty far to, doesn’t make them major league All-Stars.  Both the Cardinals and Ozuna have found themselves in a place that they could have never imagined.   

St. Louis is currently looking at a potential outfield of Tyler O’Neil, Dexter Fowler and Harrison Bader.  Banking on a bounce back season from Bader and a breakout season from O’Neil are large questions marks for a team that is always looking to compete.  With super prospect Dylan Carlson on his way there is some hope for the future of the Cardinals outfield but if Ozuna could have been the player the Cardinals thought they traded for it you could have the building blocks of a great outfield for years to come. 

Ozuna was supposed to be that building block entering his age 29 season, this offseason was supposed to be the one that paid off in the long run of his career.  Whether it was the Cardinals or someone else this was the time that the “Big Bear” was supposed to get his contract that could allow him to find a permanent spot to hibernate for the rest of his career.  Accepting a one-year deal was the worst case outcome for him. If he is not able to pick up his production this could be a trend that follows him for years to come.  

Trades don’t always work out for most teams.  This one didn’t set the organization back, but it leaves them in a vulnerable place as we see the progression of the prospects.  Marcell Ozuna and the St. Louis Cardinals was supposed to work. Sports stories don’t always have happy endings…luckily for both their stories continue, this was just a crappy chapter.

CBB pick ATS Jan. 21

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Florida Gators at LSU Tigers -2.5

Florida’s had a disappointing start 2019-2020 campaign.  Their loss to Missouri on January 11th was not only bad, it was downright embarrassing.  Florida has bounced back with two straight victories and covers versus Ole Miss and Auburn.  The Florida defense has been outstanding all season and they were able to shut down Auburn the entire game holding the undefeated Auburn Tigers to just 47 points.  

LSU is currently on a six game win streak, currently being undefeated in the SEC.  The Tigers will face their stiffest competition within the league. 

Florida’s offense has not been great most of the season but they have seemed to find it in SEC play averaging 80 points per game in their five games.  Florida will be able to cause problems for the LSU offense with Kerry Blackshear and 6-10 freshman Omar Payne both controlling the paint. Florida has found their mojo as they have begun to play well as all the new pieces are beginning to fit together.  Mike White has found the right mix that works. The Gators were a top ten team to begin the season and they will begin their climb back up the NCAA rankings.  

Pick: FloridaGators +2.5 

Texas Tech Red Raiders at TCU Horned Frogs +3

Texas Tech has the best player on the court in guard Jahim’us Ramsey.  Ramsey will have trouble tonight versus Jamie Dixon’s TCU defense. Known for their tight man to man coverage should be a problem for Ramsey but the Red Raiders have more to offer on the offensive end than just their freshman guard.  Kyler Edwards, Davide Moretti and Chris Clarke are all offensive options that can be a problem for the Horned Frogs. 

The Red Raiders have been streaky all season but have wins over Louisville, Iowa State and Kansas State were all wins that show the potential they have to take over the Big12.  Texas Tech will have the advantage on the offensive end, the key will be to keep TCU off of the boards. TCU is just 4-7 ATS the spread at home in 2019-2020, Texas Tech is also 5-0-1 in their last six versus the Horned Frogs.

Texas Tech is in need of another signature win and their ability to utilize multiple players on the offensive end should be enough to cover.

Picks: Texas Tech Red Raiders -3

New Direction- A look at the Pittsburgh Pirates 2020

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The Pittsburgh Pirates started out 2019 looking like the breakout team of the season. Josh Bell emerged into an All-Star while Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds both excelled in their first full seasons in the majors.  The Pirates were a trainwreck in the second half going 28-48 while dealing with more turmoil in the clubhouse than a reality TV show about rich guys wives. Suspensions of Kyle Crick, Keone Kela and of course Felipe Vasquez made an already bad bullpen even worse.  The Pirates management made the right decision and moved on from Clint Hurdle. A change of culture was needed, in comes Derek Shelton, a man that knows how to win.

Derek Shelton has a lot to fix in Pittsburgh, the offense may be the one thing he doesn’t.  A projected lineup that will include Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and Bryan Reynolds should be a solid starting point for the organization.  Marte, 31, is the oldest of the aforementioned players has been the mainstay of the organization for years. It’s time for the organization to move onto the Josh Bell ERA.  Bell is the evolution of the modern day player, supplying both power and on-base ability. 

While the offense has the pieces to build around the pitching staff is lackluster to say the least. The rotation has two young starters to begin their rebuild in Chad Kuhl and Jameson Taillon. Joe Musgrove was a surprise llast year bringing in a 3.3 WAR and solidifying himself as a potential mainstay for years to come.  Pittsburgh still has Mitch Keller at the top of their prospect ranks. His first time in the majors was not great but the talent is still there and can help build a strong core for the future.

The Pirate bullpen has more problems than I can fit onto one blog post. Keone Kela will be projected in the closer role followed behind by Kyle Crick, Richard Rodriguez, Michael Feliz and the emergence of Edgar Santana.  Last season’s Pirate bullpen was horrible on most accounts, finishing bottom ten or bottom five in most categories. Pittsburgh had serious issues with putting people on base for free, walking 304 players and allowing a .255 BA.  They not only put people on but they regularly allowed them to score. With no major additions to the bullpen they Pirates are hoping that new Pitching Coach Oscar Marin can find a way to change up the fortunes of the staff. Marin spent last season as the bullpen coach for the Texas Rangers.  Marin was a bargain basement cost but a new face and new appeal could be exactly what the organization is looking for.

Conclusion: 

 Moving Chris Archer, Trevor Williams and Starling Marte should be enough to bring back the prospects to take them from bottom ten ranking (#22 according to Bleacher Report).  The Pirates have the assets to help a team that will be in contention. Pittsburgh has to commit to their rebuild by moving their pieces while they still have the value. By moving on from Clint Hurdle they are showing the first step towards a new direction. 

The future for Pittsburgh is on the shoulders of Ke’Bryan Hayes, the 34th ranked prospect according to Baseball America.  Hayes will likely find his way to the majors in 2020 joining their young rotation pieces. A new direction in the steel city has the chance to work if they are willing to follow the same game plan as fellow NL Central foes Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs.  Tough times are ahead for Pittsburgh.

Breaking Down the Reds

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I was at a Cardinals/Cubs game last year at Busch Stadium when the news broke about Trevor Bauer being traded within the Central Division.  When I first heard that, naturally I would have assumed that it was either the Cubs, Brewers or Cardinals that made the move to put themselves over the top in a competitive division. I found a place with Wifi and realized that it was the cellar dwelling Cincinnati Reds that made the move, shocking most baseball pundits. Cincinnati has continued to improve their team in the offseason with additions that are not being made for the future but for right now.  They are coming for the Central division and it’s time to take notice. 

Offseason Additions: Mike Moustakas, Wade Miley

The Red’s had some holes to fill coming into the offseason.  Most notably was at second base. With their top prospect Nick Senzel becoming firmly planted in center field for most likely many years to come they had to fill that hole.  They were able to add the power hitting Mike Moustakas. Moustakas is coming off a great year with the Milwaukee Brewers hitting 35 homers, .503 slugging percentage, .262 ISO and a 2.8 WAR.  The addition of Moustakas adds power behind Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez. His consistent power gives the Reds a great safety net in case Aristedes Aquino falls into the classic sophomore slump as he enters the full time lineup.  

Wade Miley had a great 2019 with the Houston Astros.  The basic numbers are solid 14 wins, 3.98 ERA and holding lefties to a .207 batting average.  Miley faded down the stretch as his cutter seemed to lose its zip. While Miley’s August- October cost him a spot in the playoff rotation, he still did what was needed for the Astros. Miley is realistic a league average pitcher with upside.  Putting him at the end of the Reds rotation behind Sonny Gray, Anthony DeScalfani, Luis Castillo and Trevor Bauer makes their rotation arguably the best in the National League and for sure the Central Division.

What else do they need?

The Red’s continued their offseason additions by adding 31-year old Shogo Akiyama.  The addition of Akiyama could end the reported interest in Marcell Ozuna. Cincinnati’s outfield consists of Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Aristedes Aquino with the reserves being Phillip Irvin and Travis Janikowski.  Aquino provides power, Senzel speed and Winker…well he is ok.   

Akiyama projects to bat leadoff for the Reds which is the biggest need going into the 2020 season.  Votto, Suarez, Aquino and Moustakas provide a middle of the order that can match up with any lineup.  It also helps that Great American Ballpark should provide even more pop for a lineup with already legit power.  If Akiyama can provide any kind of on-base statistics, this team should be set for a huge offensive season. 

Conclusion

The Red’s farm system lacks the depth ranking at the bottom ten of the league.  Last season they entered ranking 20th overall. Adding established major league talent has pushed the Reds into contention entering 2020.  Last season the bullpen established themselves as a force. Ending with Raisel Iglesias, who has established himself as one of the best closers in all of baseball.  The Reds now have more flexibility with the addition of Miley. Amir Garrett. Michael Lorenzen and Lucas Sims have all become valued middle relievers. Cincinnati has made the moves necessary to be a problem in the Central Division.

Two Wildcats cover- NCAAB Picks ATS Jan. 4

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Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats -8

The Missouri Tigers are coming off of a route of Chicago State.  Not exactly a good warmup for the #17 team in the country coming off of their biggest win of the season over rival Louisville.  The Wildcats come into this with a clear size advantage, Missouri’s leading rebounder is guard Mark Smith averaging just 4.9 per game. They are going to be at a serious disadvantage on the boards.  Kentucky can bring multiple bigs at the Missouri defense including Nick Richards and EJ Montegomery. Missouri will not get many, if any second chance opportunities while the Wildcats should be wild on the offensive boards.  

This game will feature the 25th (Missouri) and 26th (Kentucky) adjusted defenses according to Kenpom.  While they are both great on defense Mizzou ranks 117th in adjusted offense. Even if Mizzou is able to slow the game down, they are at such a huge disadvantage in size that is should be an easy win and cover for Kentucky.

Pick: Kentucky -8

Villanova Wildcats at Marquette Golden Eagles +1

I want to start by saying I love Markus Howard. One of my favorite players in the nation to watch.  Problem is that his team doesn’t always show up the way he does. They have to face off against a Villanova team that is as hot as they come currently in college basketball.  Winners of six straight including two wins over Xavier and Kansas. Villanova’s two loses came on the road against top ten teams Baylor and Ohio State. This game will be on the road but against a very different kind of opponent.  Both of the aforementioned losses were against much stiffer defensive competition ranking 4th (Ohio State) and 12th (Baylor) in Kenpom’s defensive rankings.  

Marquette is coming off of a loss to Creighton where they surrendered 92 points.  They have to bring more intensity on the defensive end to stand a chance. Marquette will keep this one close but they have not shown the ability to finish higher level competition with their best wins coming against Kansas State, Purdue and USC, none bring the potential firepower Villanova does.  

I like Villanova to establish themselves as the class of the tough Big East.  Should be fun but this is a day for Wildcats. 

Picks: Villanova -1

Wildcard Weekend Picks ATS and SU

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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans -3

This game has upset written all over it.  The Texans are three point favorites mainly due to the home field advantage they will take into this game. Being at home may not actually be an advantage for the Texans.  Houston was 5-3 both home and away in 2019 but has only covered the spread in two of those eight games.  

DeShaun Watson has struggled over his last three games throwing five interceptions in those games. Matching up with a Buffalo defense that is giving up just 16.19 points per game this season. Buffalo is tough to move the ball against and they will need to jump out to an early lead to control the tempo of the game.  Buffalo will have a Tre’Davious White shadowing the DeAndre Hopkings throughout the game which should limit his big play ability. If Watson can utilize his secondary options he will be successful, that has not always been great for Houston though. Watson is in a tough spot, he will have to carry the offense.

Josh Allen and the Bills offense has been inconsistent at times but the emergence of Devin Singletary has given Buffalo a versatile offensive threat that opens up the big play ability  of John Brown. Relying totally on the Bills offense would worry me if they didn’t have such an advantage on the defensive end. 

Pick: Bills ML

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots -5

A nightmare of a matchup for any team, the Tennessee Titans will enter into a context with the greatest QB of all time as well as arguably the best coach of all time. The Titans have found something in former Miami cast off Ryan Tannahill.  Tannahill has found a way to elevate the entire roster making a star out of rookie AJ Brown. Derrick Henry has thrived with the new addition of a passing game. Henry walked away with the leagues rushing title.  

The Patriots have found trouble moving the ball.  They will have to find a way to establish the running game as the Titans have given up 117 yards per game over their last three.  The Patriots will have to lean a lot on Sony Michel. He and Rex Burkhead helped New England average 151 rush yards over its last three contests. 

The Patriots are struggling on both ends.  They still possess a dominant defense, Stephen Gilmore will most likely be matched up with AJ Brown.  If Gilmore can shut down the rookie that will allow the Pat’s defense to focus on shutting down Henry. The Titans will hang around but the Patriots have enough to pull this one out.  Don’t get wrapped up on the loss to the Dolphins, this is still a capable Patriots team. 

Pick: Pats win, Titans Cover

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints -9

This game is hard to ignore the underlying narrative of the Case Keenum miracle throw to Stefon Diggs just two years ago.  With Kirk Cousins now behind center for Minnesota you immediately have questions about his big game performances of the past.  The Saints are the superior team, but with Dalvin Cook most likely available in this game it seems like nine points is just too much.  

I don’t have much of an opinion on this one, should be the most lopsided game of the day.  Late garbage time touchdown gets the cover for the Vikings.   

Pick: Saints win, Vikings Cover

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles +1.5

A battle of injury riddled playoff teams will come down to which quarterback will be able to overcome those injuries in order to establish their offense.  Carson Wentz has been phenomenal this season becoming the first ever quarterback with 4,000 yards in a season where not one of his wide receivers had over 500 yards.  

Russell Wilson has a legitimate argument for MVP of the National Football League.  The Seahawks lost a lot in week 16 and 17. Most notable they will be without Chris Carson.  Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer took over the backfield duties last week against the stout 49ers defense.  Even with Carson out the way you beat the Eagles is by throwing the ball. Wilson will have to connect with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf to open up the running lanes for Beast Mode and company.  Surprisingly the Eagles defense has been great at home and should force pressure on Wilson.  

The biggest question coming into this game will be the health of the last man standing, Eagles Tight End Zach Ertz.  While injuries to Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders are important, Wentz has always relied on Ertz and if he is healthy enough to play he will at the very least be a great decoy to open up one on ones for Greg Ward and Dallas Goedert.  I am least confident in this pick, I am taking Eagles -1.5.

Pick: Eagles -1.5