Month: October 2018

What I learned from week 8

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Jameis Winston is a what I thought he was.

I have been preaching this for the last two seasons, Jameis Winston is a talented player that will never be a winner. He is the definition of a loser as a player and a person.  When you choose a player #1 overall you are expecting to get a great talent that is going to progress into a potential Hall of Famer.  It doesn’t always work out that way but in this case he has been the exact opposite of what you are looking for. Winston has gotten worse year by year and continues to just hurl the ball all over the field whether or not it makes sense or not.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will take over in week nine for the Bucs and hopefully the organization realizes that if you are forced to put in Fitzmagic mid-way through a season the guy he is replacing is most likely not the answer to your organizations future.

My advice for Jameis is to drop the I from his name and go by James Winston and hope that most people don’t realize who he is.  Maybe then he will get a chance somewhere else.

Redskins are the class of the NFC East.

The NFC East was up for grabs and the Redskins have grabbed it a locked it away.  Alex Smith and Adrian Peterson have given them leadership on the offensive end while the defense has quietly been very underrated.

The most surprising aspect of Sunday’s matchup with the Giants was that Washington was only favored by 1.5 points! The final score was only 20-13 but the score didn’t show the true dominance of the Redskins.  The Cowboys and Giants are flashy, the Eagles are the champs, the Redskins are the best in in the NFC East.

The Saints are legit contenders.

The Saints are good.  They are very good.  Week 1 they were tricked by the Fitzmagic but since that lose they have won 6 in a row in impressive fashion. The return of Mark Ingram has given them another weapon to use along with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas.  Drew Brees is known for spreading the ball around, whenever you think that you have them figured out they find a new star in the making.

The Saints have had three impressive wins versus winning teams the Ravens, Vikings and Redskins.  The Saints will continue to be tested as their schedule doesn’t get much easier down the stretch of the season. The are looking at matchups against the Rams, Eagles and Bengals over the next three weeks.  The Saints have the ability to run, throw and the defense has stepped up holding down the run.  I think they take down the LA Rams this week and the rest of the NFL realizes this team is for real.

The Steelers may not need L-Bell.

James Conner continues to roll along as the premier back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Conner has the support of the locker room and the fans.  146 rushing yards, 66 receiving yards and  two touchdowns are LeVeon like numbers.  The Steelers have pulled off three straight victories including two in the division.  With the Ravens loss this weekend to Carolina they have been put right back in the driver’s seat of the AFC North.

So what happens if Bell returns from his hold out?  Does the team really play as hard for him?  If he is in shape and ready he can be a difference maker for them.  At this point how can they turn the backfield back over to Bell.  Conner has earned his playing time and the team is winning.  James Conner is for real and he wants to be there.  Trade Bell and get yourself something for him before it is to late.  Bell is great, but sometimes its time to cut the cord.  The time has come for the Steelers.  This is James Conner’s team.skysports-james-conner-nfl_4469320

I Talk Sports DFS Picks Oct. 29

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

The NBA has a nine game slate tonight marred by injury.  No Giannis, Kawhi, potentially no AD makes this slate a little tougher to pick.  It’s up to us to find the mid- level players that can make up for the loss of the bigger studs.  Who is going to step up for these teams and put up the big points.  This is the lineup I am looking into.

*all DFS games are played on Draftkings

PG: Goran Dragic, Miami Heat ($6,200)

Dragic and the Heat have a matchup with the hapless Sacramento Kings.  Dragic brings multiple skills into this game with the injuries that the Heat continue to have Dragic is the one consistent player the Heat can rely on.

SG: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors ($5,600)

When Klay is this low you have to buy in, especially against the Bulls.

SF: Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks ($6,900)

No Giannis and no Kawhi in this game.  Middleton will be the go to scorer for the Bucks, while also not having to deal the the Leonard defense.

PF: Kelly Olynyk, Miami Heat ($4,900)

Olynyk is a boom or bust player.  Kings defense stinks so tonight should be a better chance of a boom.

C: Jarrett Allen, Brooklyn Nets ($5,400)

Very big chance of a double double tonight.

G: Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors ($8,000)

Lowry without Kawhi becomes the best option on offense for the Raptors.

F: Demar Derozan, San Antonio Spurs ($9,100)

Demar Derozan has been great early in his tenure with the Spurs.  A matchup with the Mavericks is great for any player with skills like Derozan.  Rim protector Deandre Jordan will be busy dealing with Lamarcus Aldridge.

UTIL: Zach Collins, Portland Trailblazers ($3,900)

Zach Collins seems to play better on the road averaging 15PPG on the road compared to just 8 at home.  The Blazers have a tough matchup with the Pacers but Collins should get some run in this game.

Good Luck Tonight!

 

 

 

 

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 9

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Last week went pretty well going 5-3 with my picks.  Cincinnati blew the game against Temple and Mizzou actually showed up against Memphis.  But 5-3 brings me back to .500.  Let’s look into this week’s games.

Wisconsin Badgers -4.5 at Northwestern Wildcats

The Badgers entered the season looking for a National Championship.  Those dreams died at the hands of the BYU Cougars.  They continued to get buried against surging Michigan two weeks ago.  The bounce back came last week against the Illini and it will continue Saturday against Northwestern.

The Wildcats are as one-dimensional averaging just 2.9 yards per carry.  Sure the Wisconsin secondary is not great but they are well coached and will be able to shut down the one strength of Northwestern.

Alex Hornibrook will come up big against a weak Northwestern pass rush.  Look for Hornibrook to play above is usual level allowing RB Jonathon Taylor to run wild.

PicksWisconsin -4.5

Vanderbilt Commodores at Arkansas Razorbacks, 53.5

Vandy being favored at Arkansas shows the decline of the Razorbacks program. Arkansas will enter this game giving up 34, 24, 65, and 37 points against SEC teams.  While the Commodores are not an offensive juggernaut they should be able to move the ball.  This game is more about two teams that don’t play very good defense in the SEC.

This game could be garbage or it could be a scoring marathon.  I am betting on scoring.

PicksOver 53.5

Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers -7

I have gone back and forth on Missouri all season.  I don’t believe Drew Lock is as good as people think especially in big games, but he has his moments. His moment will come this weekend against the Kentucky Wildcats.

Kentucky has not shut down a good offense.  There wins have come against a struggling Mississippi State, a so-so South Carolina and a dreadful Vanderbilt team. They will need to put up points in Columbia.  Even if I don’t believe in Lock long-term the talent is still there.

The Missouri defense’s biggest weakness is their pass defense.  Kentucky QB Terry Wilson has yet to throw for more than 151 yards during their 6-1 start. Benny Snell will get his but they will fall behind early on the road and won’t be able to get themselves out of trouble.

PicksMissouri -7

Texas Longhorns -3.5 at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Texas is on the rise.  Since their lose to Maryland in week one they have taken no prisoners.  Wins over Oklahoma, TCU and USC have helped put them right in the National Championship conversation.  Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is very questionable for this game, with bigger matchups coming up for Texas I can see them taking a conservative approach with him in this game.

Junior, Shane Buechele will most likely get the start.  Buechele may not have the skills of Ehlinger but he did get starts for Texas during his freshman season, so the moment should not be too big for the Junior.

The Longhorns have owned Oklahoma State in Stillwater, winning 8 of 9 game against them.  The Longhorns need this game more then the Cowboys, it will show on Saturday.

PicksTexas -3.5

 

Other Picks:

Virginia -9

Oklahoma -24.5

South Florida +7.5

Cardinals 2019 Offseason: Continue the Youth Movement

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

The dreams of Cardinal’s fans are always big.  We dream of signing the next Albert Pujols, a player that will revolutionize the game and take our team to the championship level that we all assume is so close. Like any dream though we have to wake up.  We have to live in the real world where great players don’t just appear.  As the offseason commences fans want to see an aggressive approach from the front office.  We want to see our teams name in the running for superstars like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.  While I admittedly would love to see either with the Birds on the Bat across their chest I am not going to allow myself to think that this is anything more then just a dream.  The reality is that the Cardinals will not realistically be in the running for either.  So what do we do? The answer:  Build around the youth!

Last season  we saw the progression of the young pitching staff that we had been hearing about for years.  Jack Flaherty, Austin Gomber and Dakota Hudson emerged as key pieces in a rotation and bullpen that needed the boost.   Going into 2019 where does this leave the state of the rotation?  I look at it like this

Starters Flaherty, Mikolas, Martinez, Gant, Gomber/Poncedeleon/Hudson

Relievers: Reyes, Hicks, Shreve, Leone, Wainwright, Cecil, Brebbia, Mayers

The Cardinals one addition should be a lock down leftie reliever.  Cash in on one that had a terrible 2018.  Andrew Miller makes a lot of sense for the team. A disappointing 2018 season will leave Miller vulnerable on the free agent market.  A 4.24 ERA in a walk year is a not ideal for someone looking to make it big.  Despite his struggles Miller was still effective against lefties holding them to just a .556 OPS.  Miller also has playoff experience to help out a cast of young relievers.  He can be an assist to a guy like Chasen Shreve whom brings potential but flexibility to move to the minors.  The Brett Cecil deal lingers in the minds of most fans but with Miller in the fold you will be able to utilize Cecil in a lot of less stressful moments.  Not listing Adam Wainwright in the rotation will be tough but this team has to move on and give their young arms a chance. John Gant proved himself to be more reliable in the rotation and a three way fight between Hudson, Gomber and Poncedeleon will give you three guys that have been more effective in the pen if they don’t win the final spot. Put Brebbia in the closer role to start the season, but don’t be locked into it.  Play the matchups and the hot hand.  If Hicks develops a strikeout pitch use him in the ninth.  Trust the young arms.

*Luke Weaver has to prove he can trust his fastball command or he has no place on this team.

Marcell Ozuna didn’t have the year most Cardinal fans had hoped for, but it wasn’t as bad as many perceived.  23 homers and 88 RBI’s was actually more accurate to his career averages.  The Cardinals traded for a player based a 2017 season where he broke out.  His regression had a lot to do with his lingering shoulder injury, but it also had to do with being protected in the lineup by Jedd Gyorko rather then Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. His production drop off hurt but is still on par with what the Cardinals would have gotten from the departed Stephen Piscotty or Randall Grichuk.  Ozuna needs protection, but I don’t believe it should be a free agent outfielder.  There are three targets the Cardinals should consider:

1. Josh Donaldson 2. Steve Pearce 3. Eduardo Escobar

Each of these players has a flaw.  Donaldson is injury prone, Pearce is has been inconsistent, Escobar is unpredictable. But each has what the Cardinals need, power. Adding Escobar and Pearce will give you two player that can play multiple positions and provide late game matchup advantages.  Donaldson should be the clear frontrunner for the Cardinals.  Give him a two year deal and while you let Nolan Gorman develop.  This will give you the MVP bat that you can have until your young star is ready for the majors. This lineup with the pitching they possess could be a huge addition.

Option A Option B
Matt Carpenter, 1B Carpenter 3B
Yadier Molina, C Eduardo Escobar, 2B
Marcell Ozuna, LF Marcell Ozuna, LF
Josh Donaldson, 3B Steve Pearce, 1B
Tyler O’Neil, RF Tyler O’Neil, RF
Paul Dejong, SS Yadier Molina, C
Kolten Wong, 2B Paul DeJong, SS
Harrison Bader, CF Harrison Bader, CF

Let O’Neil get the at bats this season and see what you have.  He strikes out a lot, but no more then players like Kris Bryant did in their first full seasons.  The one asset you have in the minors is young outfielders, it’ time to see what they can bring in a full season.  The Dexter Fowler experience is over.  Put him on the bench and eat the money if you have to. The Cardinals didn’t have a great season, I would love to add a premier bat but to think the they can outbid a bigger market team and convince them to be here is unrealistic.  Build around your youth, add veterans that make sense as you wait for your young bats.

The Cardinals are not far away from being a force.  The depth is there in the pitching staff and the young players are on the way.  Let me know what you think.

NBA DFS- October 22

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

October 22 2018- DFS Plays Draftkings

PG: Malcom Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks ($5,200)

SG: Josh Hart, Los Angeles Lakers ($5,100)

SF: Demar Derozan, San Antonio Spurs ($7,400)

PF: Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies ($5,200)

C: Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers ($6,000)

G: Jimmy Butler, Minnesota Timberwolves ($8,000)

F: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics ($7,500)

UTL: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors ($5,600)

Good luck tonight!

Devin Booker- The League’s Next Star

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

The Phoenix Suns have been the definition of disfunction over the last decade.  Nine seasons in a row with zero playoff appearances.  They haven’t won more then 24 games in the last three seasons. The years of Charles Barley, Kevin Johnson and Steve Nash have become a distant memory, a mirage of greatness in the the Phoenix desert.  But suddenly you see civilization, water, food and air conditioning!  Brought to you by the leagues newest star Devin Booker.

Over their first three NBA seasons:

Steph Curry Devin Booker
PPG 16.3 PPG 19.8
RPG 3.93 RPG 3.3
APG 5.6 APG 3.5

Devin Booker was drafted by the Suns out of Kentucky in 2015.  There was small fanfare to his pick at number 13.  Booker seemed like a solid role player that could be a piece to help an NBA team.  Booker quickly proved to be more then just a role player. Shooting 40% and averaging over 20 points a game in his sophomore season Booker became the quiet leader of a Suns team that had been lacking a star.  Not since Steve Nash’s final season in 2012 has there been a player that was putting Phoenix on the map. Booker took the role and ran with it during troubling times.

2017 was a season to forget for the Suns. Eric Bledsoe took to twitter proclaiming he no longer wanted to play in Phoenix last season causing issues in the locker room.  The problems in the locker room continued into the front office as the Suns fired Earl Watson just three games into the season.  With Watson gone the Suns decided to move on from their troubled guard Bledsoe.  Moving Bledsoe to the Bucks weakened the roster but signaled a change in the culture.  The Suns went into tank mode.  But losing sometimes has its advantages in professional sports.

Phoenix selected Deandre Ayton out of the University of Arizona with the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Adding Ayton has given the Suns a player to build along side Booker.  The presence of an inside force will allow freedom for Booker to work against one-on-one matchups. Adding sharpshooting veterans Jamal Crawford, Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza will provide the leadership for the team and guidance for a young emerging star.  The addition also puts Josh Jackson and TJ Warren to move to the bench creating tough matchups for second units.

Phoenix showed their commitment to Booker in the offseason signing him to a five-year, $158 million maximum contract extension over the summer.  Booker is now locked up for the future.  The pieces are being put into place around him with with Deandre Ayton, Josh Jackson, TJ Warren and Mikal Bridges.  The Suns will not be great this season but people will see the greatness of the next big star in the league.  Booker opened up the season showing the ability of an elite player, finishing with 35 points and 19 in the fourth quarter with the game still on the line. Booker’s 35 was the most by a Suns player in an opening day night game since Kevin Johnson put up 35 in 1993.

Phoenix got the win on opening night against a fellow rebuilding team in the Dallas Mavericks.  If Booker can avoid injury and play a full season the league will see a rise in every statistic.  Booker will take the next step in his career, remember he is just turning 22 at the end of October.  The next great star is in Phoenix and his name is Devin Booker.

 

NCAAF Picks- Week 8

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Last week could have been a disaster, but a push and a big upset from LSU helped us save face a bit.  This week a lot of big favorites that will make it tough for most cappers.  Lets get into this weeks picks. Record 11-13.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers, 67

When you have a rough week you have to switch things up.  Instead of a pick against the spread I am going to start with an over. Purdue enters this game winning three straight while putting up a few nice totals 30, 42 and 36. Much of the turnaround can be attributed to the play of quarterback David Blough, who has averaged nearly 400 passing yards per game since winning the starting job in Week 3.While their competition was not of the highest caliber the Boilmakers have still shown that they have some offensive ability.

Ohio State is will put up points over their own on the ground with JK Dobbins. I look for the Buckeyes to jump out to a big lead in the first quarter and play loose on the defensive end leading to major points.

PicksOver 67

Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars -2.5

Oregon has established themselves as a force in the Pac 12 sitting at 5-1 with back to back wins over Washington and California.  They share the best record in the conference with their competition on Saturday the Washington State Cougars.

Washington State playing at home will look to jump out to an early lead and they have the ability to do so. The Cougars average the 11th-most first-half points vs FBS foes in the nation, having put up 22 points per contest before the break. Taking an early lead can be a killer for an Oregon team that has had some tough history against the Pac 12 on the road. The Ducks had scored just 24 combined points in their previous three Pac-12 road contests.

This game is a rivalry game but I am riding the hot betting streak.  Washington State is 6-0 this season against the spread.  The Cougars are at home that’s why I give them the tilt in this one.

PicksWashington State -2.5

Cincinnati Bearcats at Temple Owls -3.5

The Bearcats are 6-0 for the first time in six years as they head into a matchup with fellow AAC conference foe Temple Owls.  Cincinnati’s unbeaten streak will be at risk against their first real competition of the season.  Cincinnati has allowed 24 points in its three road games and is giving up 13.7 points on the season, ranking third among FBS squads.

Cincinnati also has multiple receiver threats, six different Bearcats have accumulated between 10-21 receptions with Josiah Deguara leading the team in both categories (21 catches, 296 yards).

PicksCincinnati Bearcats +3.5

Oklahoma Sooners at TCU Horned Frogs -8

Oklahoma enters this game coming off a bye followed by a bye week.  The Sooners have had ample time to prepare for a TCU team that 3 of 4 including a 17-14 surprise loss to Texas Tech.

The Sooners are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye week with an average winning margin of 19. A rested Kyler Murray will lead an unstoppable Oklahoma offense that despite the loss put up points against a highly ranked Texas defense.  Murray still has a heisman on his mind and I expect him to put himself right back in the discussion after a thrashing of the Horned Frogs.

Oklahoma is 17-0 SU in its last 17 road games with an average winning margin of 21.06.

PicksOklahoma -8

Memphis Tigers at Missouri Tigers -10

Mizzou has lost three straight after starting the season with three straight wins.  Mizzou has had issues holding down good offenses giving up an average of 39 points over the last four games.

The Memphis offense features the NCAA’s top runningback Darrell Henderson, averaging 10.3 yards per carry.  Look for Memphis to pound the defensive front of Missouri which will open up the passing game for Quarterback Brady White. While this will be Memphis’s first game against a true FBS team they had a nice warm up against an elite player in Mackenzie Milton.

Drew lock will show up like he always does and throw for 300 yards, but the loss of top receiver Emanual Hall will make pressure situations tougher for the Mizzou offense.  On paper Mizzou has more talent, home field advantage and an elite Quarterback, but they have not shown the ability to cover.  Look for Mizzou to win but ten points seems like to much.

PicksMemphis +10

 

Other Picks:

Michigan State/ Michigan over 40

Clemson -17.5

Alabama vs. Tennessee over 57

I Talk Sports DFS Picks: Opening Night NBA

/ italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

The NBA is back opening with a two game slate.  The Celtics taking on the Sixers and the Warriors vs Thunder.  Love a two game slate.  Was able to win big last year on opening night.  Heres my favorite lineup tonight.

PG: Kyrie Irving, Boston Celtics ($7,600)

SG: Raymond Felton, Oklahoms City Thunder ($3,700)

SF: Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder ($8,000)

PF: Dario Saric, Philadelphia 76ers ($5,500)

C: Joel Embid, Philadelphia 76ers ($8,800)

G: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors ($8,600)

F: Kevon Looney, Golden State Warriors ($3,600)

Utl: Marcus Morris, Boston Celtics ($4,200)

This is one of three lineups I will be playing tonight.  This lineup being the one I have put the most money into. With Westbrook most likely out tonight Dennis Schroder will be looking at big minutes but I think the veteran Raymond Felton could see just enough to create value.  If Felton and Kevon Looney can give us any return on our value this can lead to some cash for tonights lineup.

Being a two game slate you have to have those wildcards work out for you because you know players like Joel Embid and Kevin Durant will be very popular.  Steph Curry and Kyrie both have a flare for the dramatics and opening night should be an exciting event.

Good luck tonight!