MLB Picks May 18

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

This matchup seems like I’ve played it recently.  Oh.. I did and won the ML with the Yankees.  Blake Snell could arguably be the best pitcher in baseball, but he has had his struggles against the Yankees with a 3-5 record and a 4.52 ERA in his career versus the bronx bombers.  The Yankees are also quietly getting healthier with the return of Gary Sanchez Aaron Hicks.  Did you know they moved into first place in the AL East?  Most probably didn’t. 

Betting an against the best pitcher in baseball is probably not the best idea but getting +112 for a first-place team with their ace on the mound is always worth a gamble.  The Yankees are hot, ride this one while you have the value.

Pick: Yankees +112

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

I’m going to start by saying that the Angels are 26-17 ATS this season.  This lineup is one of the more underrated sources of power in the league with the return of Shohei Otani. They now feature a lineup that goes pretty deep as career utility man Tommy La Stella has emerged from the scrap heap to lead the Angels in homers (11).  Even players at the bottom have found ways to contribute most notably Kole Calhoun is slugging .490. 

The Angels will get a chance at Jakob Junis who couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning in his most recent start and has a problem with giving up the long ball.  The Royals have had bullpen issues as well sitting at the bottom of the league in most statistics including saves (obviously).

Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Angels.  He has had a problem giving up the long ball this season but will face off with a Royals lineup that will not provide as many power threats as the Angels. 

Pick: Angels RL (+110)

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers- 9.5

The Tigers will send hard luck Mathew Boyd to the mound against the Athletics on Saturday.  I call him hard luck because he may be the best pitcher in baseball no one is talking about.  Boyd currently sits 3-4, 3.15ERA and .99WHIP.  Boyd will have a challenge with the Oakland A’s, a team that is tough against lefties but has overall underperformed in 2019.

Boyd should be able to hold his own while the Detroit lineup has struggled ultimately the entire 2019 campaign. I am going to bet on bad offense from Detroit and solid pitching from Boyd. 

Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)

MLB Picks 4/20/19

I have been throwing out a lot of picks lately and haven’t held myself accountable so today I begin to truly cover my plays and see what my end of the season record may be. Let’s get this started on a winning track.

Chicago White Sox (Santana) at Detroit Tigers (Norris)

The Detroit Tigers as a team haven’t hit much all year. They have however been better at home with a .244 BA at home when compared to a .183 BA away from Comerica Park. Ervin Santana has not been stellar in his first two starts of the season giving up 10 earned runs over 8 innings and getting shelled by right handed hitters.

The Tigers have a healthy Nick Castellanos back in their lineup which will propel them to a victory at home.

Pick: Detroit Tigers -135

Boston Red Sox (Porcello) at Tamp Bay Rays (Morton)

Rick Porcello has been a ticking time bomb to start the season, a matchup the leagues best team has the potential for time to run out. Lefties in particular have hit Porcello to a tune of .460 batting average in more than enough of a sample size.

The Tamp Bay Rays will have an array of lefties in their lineup including Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi and the red hot Austin Meadows. Even if Boston was playing better this is not a matchup that benefits the the world champs.

Pick: Tamp Bay Rays -1.5 (+140)

Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) at Colorado Rockies (Senzatela)

No one expected the Rockies to have struggles on the offensive side of the ball but that has been the case early in 2019. The Rockies are bottom five in most offensive categories. With a slash line of .215/.274/.360 at the plate as a team a matchup with Aaron Nola seems like trouble for Colorado. However, their offense has come alive during their recent winning streak, scoring at least four runs in each of their last five games.

The Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela to the mound coming off of a great first start against San Diego going 6.2 innings while only giving up one run. Ryan McMahon has stepped up for the Rockies filling in for the injured Daniel Murphy. The Rockies as a home dog versus a usually sluggish start to the season for Nola should give great value in this situation.

Pick: Rockies +105

CBB Picks ATS 2.23.19

Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers

Tennessee was primed to make a statement last week in Lexington. They had control of the SEC and could bury the “mighty” Kentucky Wildcats.  Instead they saw an end to their 20-game winning streak and found themselves just one game up the aforementioned Wildcats and their opponents on Saturday the LSU Tigers.

This is a matchup of offensive teams both ranking in the top ten in scoring in all of college basketball.  The difference on Saturday will be the ability of either team to establish themselves on the defensive end.  In LSU’s loss to Florida on Wednesday night the Tigers were unable to adjust to a Florida that tried to slow down the pace. If Tennessee is able to establish a slower pace and dominate the ball control LSU will not be able to adjust.

We have seen the Volunteers win scrappy games when they have to.   I like Jordan Bone holding Tremont Waters in check and the Volunteers to prevail on the road.  I’m not going to worry about last week or the Rick Barnes curse.  Give me the Volunteers in a huge SEC game.

Pick: Tennessee -1

Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

Every week I look at Maryland and see a potential second weekend team.  It could be my love for the traditional big that you really only see in college basketball.  Bruno Fernando is a throwback to the basketball I watched as a kid.  Throw it to the big man and impose your will.  The sophomore center enjoyed his matchup in Columbus putting up 13 point and 15 rebounds.  He will be on the attack early against Ohio State’s Kaleb Wesson whom was no match in the first meeting.  If Wesson gets into foul trouble the deficiencies of Ohio State’s depth will show.

Neither team will bring a potent offensive attack, but if Maryland is able to avoid a sluggish start that they are known for they should be able to coast to an easy victory at home.  They also have to find a way to cut down on their turnovers.  If they play smart and feed Fernando early it will open up looks for the slick shooting freshman guard Aaron Wiggins whom has hit 9 of 18 from behind the arc over the teams last 3 games. 

Maryland is 3-0 ATS in their last three home games.  Give me Maryland to cover. Take care of the ball!

Pick: Maryland -6.5

Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange

We all know Duke without Zion Williamson is going to cause some problems.  What is being ignored is that a healthy Tre Jones is back in the lineup for the Blue Devils.  In the first matchup his injury forced the Blue Devils to run the point with RJ Barrett and company.  With Jones as the helm Barrett will be free to work inside the Syracuse zone.  His ability to create at the top of the key will be a huge factor.  I assume Coach K will utilize one of his big’s in Zion’s spot, while that may be the game plan to start don’t be surprised to see a lot of sharp shooting sophomore Alex O’Connell. 

Syracuse shot lights out in the first matchup, Frank Howard will have the defense of Tre Jones hounding him all night which will lead to more turnovers not allowing the Orange to set their press.  Duke has the superior athletes even without Zion.  If utilized correctly they should cover the spread.

Pick: Duke -4.5

Other games I like:

Illinois/Penn State Under 145.5

MO State/ Indiana State Under 131.5

Purdue -5

Marquette -3

Texas +3.5

Kansas State -10.5

SLU +6.5

Bowl Game Picks ATS- Dec 26

First Responder Bowl: Boston College Eagles vs Boise State Broncos -2.5

The Boise State Broncos enter bowl season winners of 7 of 8 with the only loss coming in the MWC Championship game to Fresno State.  They are set for a matchup with the Boston College Eagles who opened the season on a tear at 7-2 before injuries doomed them to three straight losses to end the campaign. 

Eagles QB Anthony Brown and RB AJ Dillon are both set to play in this game which will make a huge difference for a team that has been lost on the offense without their two playmakers.  The Eagles also have to face a defense that hasn’t given up more than 24 points since back in October.  Boston College will struggle to score

The Broncos will have QB Brett Rypien who averaged 285 yards per game this season adding 30 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions.  Rypien will have had three weeks to prospect his adversaries in this one, making him even more lethal.  Rypien along with Junior RB Alexander Mattison will make for a stronger punch then the aforementioned Brown and Dillon. 

Both teams have stronger defenses than offenses, but the edge on both ends has to go to a healthy Boise State team that seems to have a history of beating power five teams.  Take Boise State to cover because of their defense.

Boise State -2.5

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota Golden Golphers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -6

Georgia Tech is going to run the ball…duh.  Can the Minnesota Golden Gopher defense stop that run game…. no.  Minnesota’s defensive strength is their pass rush which will be completely negated by the fact that the Yellow Jackets never really throw the ball. 

Both Georgia Tech “Quarterbacks”  TeQuon Marshall and Tobias Oliver ran for over 800 yards, while as a team Georgia Tech averaged an astounding 334.9 yards per game during the regular season. This will be a huge problem for a Minnesota team that dug deep in the regular season to salvage themselves a shot at a bowl game. 

Minnesota has some nice wins on their schedule including victories over MWC Champion Fresno State, Purdue and at Wisconsin. But the rushing attack of Georgia Tech and the inexperience at QB with their second freshman starter of the year Tanner Morgan makes this seem like an insurmountable task for Head Coach PJ Fleck and company.  Minnesota had a nice season but they don’t cover the six points.

Georgia Tech -6

Cheez-It Bowl: California Golden Bears -1 vs. TCU Horned Frogs

The TCU Horned Frogs may want 2018 to ended worse than any other team in the country. A pre-season top 25 team was the definition of injury riddled this year, entering the Cheez-It Bowl with their 3rd string QB and 2nd string RB.  This would be bad news for any team but a matchup with the surprisingly stingy California Golden Bears makes this a nightmare after Christmas. The Golden Bears featured the No. 24 scoring defense in all of college football holding offense juggernauts like Washington to just 10 points and Washington State to 19 points.

TCU will start senior Grayson Muehlstein at QB, coming off a great victory against the uninspired Oklahoma State Cowboys in the final week of the season. Big 12 defenses, especially after two tough games the previous week are usually not the toughest of opponents so that win doesn’t carry the weight it may have earlier in the season.

TCU has a lot of talent on both ends despite the missing pieces but California will just make it too tough for them to score.  Still believe TCU makes this a game based on the fact that despite all of the injuries the spread is only at 1 point.  I have to go with California to pull off the victory by at least 3 points. 

California -1

Bowl Picks ATS- Dec 15

The bowl season is here, starting off with five games on Saturday.  With no real marquee matchups these games won’t get the love the deserve. A

Autonation Cure Bowl: Tulane -3.5 vs Louisiana Lafayette

A meeting between to Louisiana teams that got off to a slow start in 2018 will face off in Orlando.  Both teams feature top 30 rushing attacks which will make for slow paced game. 

The Ragin Cajuns under first year Coach Billy Nappier, former Nick Saban assistant, as turned around a ULL team that coming off three straight sub-.500 seasons. ULL has been battle tested starting the season at 1-3 with losses to SEC powers Alabama and Mississippi State.  They rebounded from a tough start to the season by winning six of their final nine games and the Western Division of the Sun Belt.  

Tulane has moved on from their offensive coordinator, hiring Will Hall.  Tulane will enter this game with a sub par offense versus a ULL sub par defense.  Tulane will have problems on the offensive end against the battle tested Cajuns.  ULL will run the ball more effectively than their counterparts which will make this close.  

ULL +3.5

Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Fresno State -6

The Las Vegas Bowl will be the highlight of the bowl matchups featuring the Mountain West Champion Fresno State Bulldogs versus the Pac-12’s Arizona State Sun Devils. 

Perhaps the biggest headline for this game is Sun Devils leading WR N’Keal Harry has chosen to sit out this game.  Fresno State has experience defeating a Pac12 team, taking down UCLA, they also have beaten San Diego State. Arizona State lost to the same Aztec team during the season. 

The Mountain West doesn’t get the respect that they may deserve.  Without Harry, Arizona State doesn’t have much of a chance.  

Fresno State -6

Championship Week Picks

Pac 12: Utah Utes vs. Washington Huskies -5

The Pac 12 may not be heading to the College Football Playoff but a champion must still be crowned and a participant in the Rose Bowl.

Washington hopes to build off the big victory over rival Washington State in their regular season finale. Washington will have the advantage at QB with Jake Browning, who threw for 2,692 yards and 16 touchdowns during the season.  He will lead an offense that will look to jump out early on Utah.

The Huskies defense was able to hold a powerful Washington State offense to 15 points. The Utes don’t possess the offense to compete with Washington.

PicksWashington -5.5

Big 12: Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -7.5

Let me set the scene.  Two hated rivals.  One looking to not only avenge their only loss but also give themselves a shot at the college football playoff.  The other with the chance to beat their rival twice and keep them out of the college football playoff. This game has ESPN 30 for 30 written all over it.

Kyler Murray has been as good as advertised all season.  He will keep that going against a stout Texas defense.  All season Murray has not been the problem.  The Oklahoma defense is going to the be issue in this game.  Texas QB Sam Ehlinger was impressive in their first matchup throwing for 314 yards and two touchdowns.  Texas is a tough matchup for the Sooners,  they are 6-0 ATS versus Oklahoma in their last six.  Oklahoma wins but its close.

PicksTexas +7.5

AAC: Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights -3.5

Mackenzie Milton’s injury season ending injury may be to much to overcome for the “National Champs”.  Memphis enters this game with thoughts of last years epic showdown in the AAC Championship game, losing by a touchdown in double overtime.  The Tigers are out for blood in this one, looking to end the UCF 24-game win streak and any hope for the Knights to make it into the College Football Playoff. 

Memphis will run the ball straight down the throats of the UCF defense, managing the clock and dominating the time of possession. Look for Memphis to stack the box and make unproven true freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. make throws down field.  Even if Mack Jr. does play well it will still be a lot to overcome.  I like Memphis to cover the +5.5 and I may even look to the moneyline.

PicksMemphis +3.5

SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs. Georgia Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have seen Tua in their nightmares for about a year now.  They will have a chance to face their fears on Saturday as they go into the SEC Championship.  

The betting public is going to look at Georgia’s loss to LSU and compare it to the domination Alabama showed against LSU.  I am looking at these two teams differently.  I see a Georgia team fighting for their life with a QB Jake Fromm that has no fear of Alabama. Georgia surrenders the 10th-fewest points per game at 17.2 and the 14th-fewest passing yards per game at 175.1. 

Alabama is a juggernaut of offense but their defense has shown holes this season. Georgia will come out and take an early lead and ride it until the 4th quarter where Tua makes the big plays necessary to overcome them.  This game is going to be a good one and a lot closer then the point spread is going to be. 

PicksGeorgia -13.5

ACC: Clemson Tigers -26.5 vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

I’m not wasting a lot of time on this one.  Pittsburgh is overmatched this one should be a beatdown of epic proportion.  Do I hope I am wrong? Yes.  But unlikely, Clemson rolls into the College Football Playoff. 

PicksClemson Tigers -26.5

Big 10: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

Ohio State opened some eyes last week in their beatdown of rival Michigan last week. The Buckeyes defense finally showed up in the win against Michigan, but they still have to prove that they can consistently play at a high level. As good as the defense looked it has been Dwayne Haskins that has been playing at a NFL level.  He was second only to Gardner Minshew in passing yards this season, had five more touchdown passes than runner-up Will Grier, and torched the FBS’ top defense from Michigan for 396 passing yards, six passing TDs and 62 points in The Game.

Northwestern enters this matchup as over achievers in a matchup that does fit their strengths.  The Wildcats are 79th ranked passing defense in the country giving up 238 yards per game on average.  

The Buckeyes not only need to win this game but they have to show that they are a dominant force.  Urban Meyer won’t take his foot off the gas in this one. 

PicksOhio State -13.5

NFL Picks ATS Week 12

Didn’t have time to Podcast my picks this week so here they are.  Picks will be bolded. Season Record 87-67.

Chicago Bears -3 at Detroit Lions

Trubisky injury worries me.  The Kerryon Johnson injury worries me even more for Detroit.  The Lions were finally establishing a run game, they will now have to focus on the passing game which will be tough against the Bears pass rush.  Mack dominates and so do the Bears.

Washington Redskins +7.5 at Dallas Cowboys

The Redskins were not going to win this game because of Alex Smith.  Colt McCoy knows Jay Gruden’s system and the Redskins are to tough to get blown out be an offense that at times does not seem to understand that Zeke is the man. May even look at the ML.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -13

Saints are the hottest team in the league, getting a dream matchup versus a struggling Falcons defense.  Kamara and Ingram will feast on turkey day.  13 points is a lot but this Saints team is continually trying to make a statement that they are the best in the NFC and a demolition on national TV is the perfect time to do it.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills

The Jaguars have to win this game and they have to crush a lesser team.  The Jags showed in the first half last week what this team was supposed to look like.  They will not have Big Ben on the other side to pull off a late comeback.  The Bills are tough but they don’t have the offense to put up anything against Jacksonville.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals -3

Bengals are desperate for a win.  They will not allow a rookie QB to beat them two weeks in row.  Bengals come out and dominate.  I like what the Browns have been doing with Nick Chubb and the reemergence of Duke Johnson but the Bengals are still a better team and they should prevail at home by at least a touchdown.

New England Patriots -10.5 at New York Jets

Jets may not have Darnold and they just got destroyed by the Buffalo Bills.  The Pats are also off a buy.  Should be fully healthy.  Thats all that needs to be said on this one.

New York Giants +7 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants have killed me this season.  The Eagles though enter this game with basically a practice squad secondary.  Look for Barkley and Beckham to dominate the Eagles secondary.  I have little hope for Eli to be dominate but this team is to strong offensively to ignore.  The Eagles can win this game but I think seven points is to much in a division game.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

The Buc’s need to move on from Jameis but for now they are rollin with him.  The 49ers have a lot of heart and play hard but this Buccaneers team has to many weapons for the 49ers to hold them down.  The 49ers will not be able to keep up.  Bet Bucs and collect your money.

Seattle Seahawks +3 at Carolina Panthers

This game should be very fun to watch.  Two underrated QB’s in Cam Newton and Russell Wilson will battled for their playoff lives.  The Panthers have been a thorn in my side while making these picks while Seattle has been a great pick for me all year.  Seattle is underrated and will prove it on Sunday.  I like Seattle to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens -12

The Ravens enter this game with a question mark at QB.  Either Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco will lead them to the promise land though.  The Raiders showed life last week but that was against a Cardinals team that didn’t have much to play for.  The Ravens need this win and will get it by 14 easily.

Arizona Cardinals +13.5 at Los Angeles Chargers

I know the Cardinals lost to the Raiders last week but they have done a much better job of utilizing their best weapon David Johnson since Byron Leftwich took over play calling duties. The Cardinals will run the ball and keep Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon on the sideline.  Chargers will pull out the victory but a late touchdown in garbage time will kill the cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos

Steelers are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning 7 straight games. The Broncos love to cover spreads, just ask the Rams and the Chargers.  The Steelers though don’t need much to put up a lot of points.  Steelers with utilize their great offensive talent to jump out to an early lead.

Pittsburgh has been getting great pressure on the opposing QB’s leading the league in sacks right now. Case Keenum is going to have a long day.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts -10

The announcement that Ryan Tannahill will play immediately took half a point off this spread.  That won’t make a difference against a Colts team that has figured out how to block for their star QB Anrew Luck.  After the beating the Colts gave the Dolphins, I don’t see any way that Miami sticks with them.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings -3

Its really hard to bet on Kirk Cousins over Aaron Rodgers.  It is however easy to bet against Mike McCarthy.  Two teams that both need wins, I am going with the home team. That is literally the only thing I can say about this game.

Tennesee Titans at Houston Texans Pick’em

Titans don’t know who their starting QB will be on Monday night.  Don’t really care, Houston will win at home.

Thanks for reading and Good Luck