Month: February 2020

Middle of the Pack- Preview 2020 Chicago Cubs

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The Chicago Cubs decided they didn’t need to do much this offseason, in fact they decided that less is more.  Chicago decided that it was time for a change. They started with their manager, out goes Joe Maddon, in comes David Ross.  They didn’t stop with the coach. They continued to allow players to walk out the door without much effort to re-sign anyone.  Departing from the windy city, Cole Hamels, Nick Castellanos, Pedro Strop, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell and Steve Cishek. The Cubs still have a great roster…right?

Lineup- The core is still awesome.

The Cubs still have their core lineup intact.  Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Wilson Contreras and Jayson Heward (I guess he counts) all still make up one of the most fearsome lineups in the national league.  

The center field position is the biggest question mark with the biggest potential.  Ian Happ and Albert Amora will battle for the job with the winner most likely being Happ as he brings more potential with the bat than Almora.  Happ has a wRC+ of 127 in his 58 games last season compared to Almora’s 64 in 130 games. Chicago would love a resurgence of Steven Souza Jr. who will be returning to Major League Baseball in 2020.  It’s hard to project much out of Souza Jr. until he performs in the game.  

Second base is another spot that is up for grabs in the Chicago lineup.  Cubs top prospect Nico Hoerner is the frontrunner for the job. Veterans Daniel Descalso and Jason Kipnis will compete for the position but if Nico Hoerner shows anything during the spring he should be the name written into the lineup on opening day.  

The Rotation is questionable. 

Projected Rotation:  Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Tyler Chatwood.

The Cubs decided to let Cole Hamels walk while not having a real plan as to who they were going to replace him with. The only off-season addition of note for the rotation was Jharel Cotton who has pitched in the majors since 2017.  Chicago will rely on their veteran starters to stay healthy and improve on their performances from 2019. A healthy Darvish is a step in the right direction for the rotation. A bounce back year from Jose Quintana is needed for the organization, Quintana’s 1.39 WHIP going along with a hard hit percentage of 38.2 were both the highest of his career. Quintana will never be a guy that will strike out a lot of batters, he has to reinforce his pitch to light contact approach and allow his solid defense to back him up.  

Bullpen- Kimbrel has to bounce back.

The Cubs have Craig Kimbrel.  While he wasn’t the shutdown closer he has shown in his career he will have a full off-season to prepare.  Kimbrel has to be the cornerstone of a bullpen that has a lot of questions. In front of Kimbrel the Cubs will feature some unproven arms Rowan Wick, Kyle Ryan, Dan Winkler and Brad Wieck. Chicago added a former closer Jeremy Jefferess hoping to get the dominant player of 2018.  If Jefferess is able to perform to his potential the Cubs could have a solid 1-2 punch in the back end.   

Conclusion

Pecota projections have the Cubs with 85 wins, putting them behind the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central.  The Cubs offsense can compete with anybody. Putting Kris Bryant in the leadoff spot should be interesting but they have the power behind him for that to make enough sense.   The question will be whether or not the starting staff can stay healthy and perform better than they did in 2019. The bullpen has some solid pieces to keep them inthe mix.  

David Ross’s first year as manager doesn’t worry me at all.  Catchers are basically managers in training and Ross should command the respect of a reltively veteran team.   The Cubs farm system ranks 28th (bleacher report) so if they do need to make a big move at the deadline that can be difficult.  The Cubs will compete for a playoff spot but I don’t see how this team has a chance to win the Central over the Cardinals and Braves.  The Cubs are in a place of mediocrity. Wouldn’s shock me to see some panic if they get out to a slow start. Kris Bryant may be the guy on the move.

Five Breakout NBA Players of the Second Half

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Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets

Ten games leading into the All-Star break Miles Bridges became a consistent scorer and productive player for the crappy Charlotte Hornets.  Bridges averaged 16 PPG to go along with five rebounds. Take away two stinkers and he would be averaging over 20 PPG. Most importantly Bridges saw a rise in usages percentage over those games despite competeing with ball dominant Terry Rozier. 

The Hornets will not compete for a championship or even a playoff spot but they do have a chance to continue to develop their up and coming forward.  The former Michigan State Spartan underwhelmed their first season but has come on to be a mainstay in the rotation. Bridges showed a flash of his ability over All-Star Weekend putting up 20 points in the rising stars game.  Bridges increased usage to go along with his consistent minutes should lead to production. 

Jaylon Brown, Boston Celtics

Jaylon Brown is already doing everyting better in 2020.  The loss of Kyrie Irving has allowed Brown to open up his game.  Brown has seent he production jump in all advanced stats. His PER jumped up to 17.28 from his 13.58 from the previous two seasons. Brown’s length and athleticism along with a 3-pt shooting percentage of 38% makes him the perfect player for today’s game.  

Brown is still just 23 years old and is a key piece of one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  Being the 3rd and sometimes 4th option for Boston keeps opposing defeneses from game planning against him.  When Tatum struggles, Brown is the guy to bring the Celtics to the next level come playoff time.  

Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz

Quietly Jordan Clarkson is having the best season of his career.  He has his highest true shooting percentage of his career at 58.1% along with a PER of 18.87.  Clarkson’s move to the Utah Jazz has allowed him to flourish as the #1 scorer off of the bench.  The Jazz were in need of more scoring and Clarkson is the perfect fit. The last three games of the All-Star break Clarkson put up 21, 25 and 30.   He has finally found a place that he fits and he will excel in the second half. 

Christian Wood, Detroit Pistons

Christian Wood has been a DFS darling of mine for the last two years. With the departure of Andre Drummond it’s finally time for Wood to show the type of production he can bring to the table.  Wood has become the vocal point to a terrible Pistons team. His player effenciency rating ranks 15th in the NBA while his minutes continue to increase. Averaging over 30 minutes per game since the Drummond trade has immediatetly put him in the place to be the new cornerstone of the organization.  

Furkan Korkmaz, Philadelphia 76ers

While Korkmaz is not going to be a star on a Sixers team with big personalities he could be the biggest reason they have a chance to win the East.  Korkmaz has shot 39% from three over his last ten games. Entering the starting lineup gives the Sixers a legit long range threat that is needed to go along with the Simmons work getting into the interior of the defense.  Furkan will never be the name that people bring up when they are playing Philly but his shooting ability will be a huge asset to a team with a lot of promise. 

Five role players that will make or break their teams.

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Stars in college basketball will get the headlines. In college basketball the game is more about a team concept.  Rarely do you have a team that is star drive go win the whole thing. Virginia was loaded with key players that were all assets to their eventual championship.  I want to highlight the players people don’t talk about enough that could be the reason their team makes it deep into March Madness.  

*These players will be from power conference teams.

Quincy McKnight, Seton Hall

Most common college basketball fans know that Seton Hall is Myles Powells team.  When Powell is not on his game it is the senior point gaurd Qunicy McKnight that picks up the slack. McKnight is veteran that isn’t afaid of prime time competetion.  His ability to run the offense and create off the dribble will open up the floor for Myles Powell and Sandro (Not trying to spell last name). 

In the NCAA tournament McKnight will have to force the defense to pay attention to him, his 84% free throw shooting will also be a huge advantage for the Pirates.  He will be the guy forced to take the ball against top defensive teams that will not allow the ball into Powell’s hands.  

Marcus Garrett, Kansas

Who doesn’t know Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike.  The unsung hero of KU is Junior Guard Marcus Garrett.  Garrett is a solid two way player that has shown up in the big moments of the season. Garrett showed his potential this weekend taking over the game agaisnt Oklahoma after Kansas got off to a slow start.  Garrett’s defense has alwasy been his trademark but it was his ability to shoot the three that shocked most fans, knocking down nine of them.  

If Garrett can provide the outside shot to go along with his defense he will be the difference maker for Kansas in the tourney.

Chris Clarke, Texas Tech

The popular sleeper team in college basketball is Texas Tech.  They have flashy scorers in Jahmi’us Ramsey, Davide Moretti and Kyler Edwards steal the headlines. It’s the Virgnia Tech transfer Chris Clarke that provides the grit work for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has the skilled players to compete with anyone.  What they lack is the power on the inside to compete with the big boys of college basketball. Clarke’s toughness is a necessity for last year’s runner up to the national title. His perfromances against K-State, Louisville and Kentucky all carried the team to victories or near victories (Kentucky).  

Toughness and experience are what seems to be lacking from Texas Tech.  His ability to help run the offense and help thems stay up tempo will be important downt he stretch. 

Daryl Morsell, Maryland Terrapins

Maryland has issues. Their ridiculous talent can overshadow their ineffeciencies. Daryl Morsell is a player that has become a key player in their big matchups.  Wins over Illinois and Rutgers showed off the potential stat stuffing ability of Morsell. Morsell is currently shooting 36% from three, which is a huge improvement over last season 28%.  The Terrapins have issues shooting the ball, if Morsell can provide the threat from distance it will make their ridiulously athletic point guard Anthony Cowan even tougher to defend.  

Morsell is the third leading scorer on Maryland behind the aforementioned Cowan and NBA prospect Jalen Smith.   Morsell will be the player that gets the open looks and if he hits this team has final four written all over them.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Villanova

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl was a highly rated recruit, the freshman forward has lived up to the rating.  Averaging 10 points and nearly 9 boards a game is nice but his ability to play the five in an uptempo Villanova offense has allowed them to play at a faster rate.  

Robinson-Earl is matchup nightmare for traditional bigs and has the ability to post up opposing players that match his size.  Colin Gillespie and Saddiq Bey are the guys that catch the headlines but Robinson Earl is the guy that allows them to before by cleaning up the glass.  If you question the freshman at all check his game logs against higher level competition. His play will determine where this team goes.

The Cards future is based on Matt Carpenter

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Matt Carpenter sucked in 2019.  I wanted to come up with a more sophisticated way of saying that but as a Cardinals fan and a baseball fan there are really no other words that encapsulate the horrible season the Cardinals third baseman had.  He stunk, he knew and we knew it.

An MLB player having a regression year happens, pitchers begin to understand how to pitch to him or an injury slows them down.  The regression level Carpenter saw when compared to 2018 though was astronomical. You may call it Dexter Fowler-esque.

WAR WRC+ ISO SLUG

2018- 5.0 2018- 141 2018- .266 2018- .523

2019- 1.2 2019- 95 2019- .166 2019- .392

Analytics driven stats destroy Carpenter..  The acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt was made to solidify the middle of the order behind Carpenter.  Carpenter, well known for starting the season slow, started about as slow as you can possibly start.  Starting the season hitting just .204 along with a .328 OBP during the first month and a half of the year.  Things didn’t get much better for Carp as his struggles forced the organization to move Carpenter from the top of the order.

The point is, Carpenter sucked last year.  There are no ways around it. Entering his age 34 season Carpenter’s regression seems real.  The scariest stat is his 12% walk rate in 2019. Carpenter was known for his ability to get on base and that took a huge hit last season dropping his OBP a staggering 40 points!  St. Louis needed Carpenter to step up his power in 2018 so a likely regression from 2017 OBP was going to happen. His approach at the plate changed and he has not been able to get back to where they need it to be.  

The question is which Carpenter are they going to get enteing 2020?  A change in his swing is the early story of spring training so hopefully he can regain his batting eye.  Being locked into a contract that is going to pay him $18.5 million over the next three seasons will force him into the order.   He has to retool his approach at the plate, find that batting eye that forced opposing pitchers to put the ball over the plate and allow him to extend and drive the ball. If he bounces back to even a shadow of the player that became a cornerstone in the lineup from 2012-2018 the Cardinals will be able to wait on the further development of their young players.  

Carpenter’s role on the Cardinals will be an interesting case in how the season will develop.  If he continues to struggle the organization will be forced to play Tommy Edman more at 3rd base which would most likely lead to more playing time for Lane Thomas in the outfield.  If they go another route the Cardinals could be forced to push Dylan Carlson up whether they believe he is ready or not. I am a believer in waiting for the development of minor league talent.  In today’s baseball world patients is not a virtue. Talented players are put into positions to sink or swim. The players that swim, jump straight into the limelight of the profession. The Cardinals giant marketing push of Harrison Bader heading into 2019 was an example of a team that saw a spark in a young player and rode with it.  That didn’t work out very well, which could halt the organization from pushing the talented Carlson to the big club. 

The Cardinals didn’t add Anthony Rendon or Nolan Arenado to the team due to the fact that they had Carpenter written in at 3rd base in permanent marker.  A team that should be looking to always be moving forward has shown an inability to move on from players and coaches that have impeded the growth of the organization.  Carpenter’s play will be the biggest factor to determine the success and direction of the franchise for the next three years. While I hope he is successful, I’m not going to hold my breath.  

Grading the Mookie Betts Trade

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Los Angeles Dodgers- Receive Mookie Betts and David Price

The Dodgers are perennial contenders year after year.  Losing three straight times in the postseason to the eventual champions. They were very open about doing what it took to add another impact player.  They were in on Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. When they got Scott Boras’d (that’s a thing now) on all of them it was time to go after a team looking to begin a rebuild in the Boston Red Sox.  

Betts was not going to re-sign with Boston.  The Red Sox saw the writing on the wall and it was time to get what they could out of their All-Star.  The Dodgers didn’t hesitate when they saw the opportunity. Moving top prospect Alex Verdugo as well as a picking up a portion of the David Price contract has allowed the already talented Dodgers to become a legit SUPER team. 

Grade: A++++++

Boston Red Sox- Receive Alex Verdugo and Brusdar Graterol #53

I understand that Boston fans are angry but they should really look on the bright side of the situation. Alex Verdugo immediately puts himself in the starting lineup for the Red Sox for years to come. 

Verdugo, 23, is a future star in Boston.  In 2018 mlb.com called him “One of the best pure hitting prospects in baseball”.  The Dodgers loaded roster was unable to find consistent AB’s for Verdugo but when he played he excelled.  He is not just just a hitter either, Verdugo has one of the highest rated arms in baseball, which should fill in nicely in right field.  

So, who is Brusdar Graterol?

Graterol, 21, is currently the #53 overall prospect in all of baseball.  He brings a ridiculous fastball that will consistently stay in the triple digits. He has dealt with injuries over the last two seasons but his plus arm should make him a candidate for a bullpen role.  With the Red Sox severe need for bullpen pieces they may have a future closer on their hands.  

Boston loses the trade because they lost the best player, but really did they do that bad? I say no. If they were not going to re-sign Betts, this isn’t that bad.

Grade: B-

Minnesota Twins- Kenta Maeda

The Twins need pitching.  Behind Jose Berrios there is not much that you can depend on in the Twins rotation.  Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Rich Hill and Michael Pineida are the probables behind their star.  Adding Maeda gives the Twins another guy that has proven himself in the rotation as well as out of the bullpen. 

The Twins gave up a prospect they didn’t see a future in and added depth in a place they needed it most.  Solid job.