Month: December 2018

St. Louis Cardinals- New Year’s Resolutions

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Marcel Ozuna- Get myself paid.

Contract years are always a great way to inspire a player to be his best.  He is not only playing for his team but he is playing for himself and his future. Ozuna wasn’t the player the Cardinals traded for in the winter of 2018. He wasn’t the power hitting impact bat that would make the Cardinals lineup a force to be reckoned with.

Ozuna spent most of the season injured, putting together a respectable season but not one that is going to get him the contract he will be looking for. Fans won’t be excited to see a player that will clearly be inspired by the all mighty dollar, but that will be the story for Ozuna in 2019.  I expect Marcel to return to MVP level performance, 35 homers will be a guarantee.

Paul DeJong- Play 150 games

Paul DeJong will enter the 2019 season as one of the most intriguing candidates for a breakout season. At just 25 years old, DeJong is still developing a major league shortstop.  A broken hand on a wild pitch as well as a few different prolonged slumps caused his stats to take a bit of a dive.  Still finishing with an impressive 3.8 WAR DeJong will now have the luxury of a stronger lineup around him. 

DeJong does not have any logical replacements on the bench outside of the versatile Yairo Munoz, who would be a preferred utility player.  DeJong will not only need to continue his progression as a player but he must also find his way into the lineup on a daily basis.  The more he plays the better the Cardinals will be.

Carlos Martinez- Become the Ace I think I am

The time for development is done for Carlos Martinez.  As he enters 2019 he will be looking to take over the role of rotation leader. Adam Wainwright has signed on for another season but it is time for Carlos to be the best pitcher in the rotation or if needed in the bullpen. 

Martinez is entering his 7th season for the Cardinals, he is still just 27 years old!  The attitude he brings out to the mound is one of dominance.  He believes that he is the best player on the field and now it is time for him to prove it. Two straight season Carlos has been the opening day starter for the Cardinals, it would be safe to assume that he and Miles Mikolas will be dueling for that honor in spring training. 

Martinez’s mediocore season accompanied with him now history of injuries has put him in a place where he has to prove himself.  That will be his goal in 2019, he will prove he is an ace.

Harrison Bader- Win the Gold Glove

Asking a second-year player to go out and win a prestigious award is not like asking your coworker to make sure they up their sales.  Bader showed the ability to take over games defensively.  He will now have the chance to play every day and showed the world that he is that good.

Bader finished sixth in the Rookie of the Year Ballot in 2018 and should have won a Gold Glove. In 2019 Bader will take his next step forcing the baseball world to take notice and give him the award. 

Jordan Hicks- Establish my slider

Since his first pitch in the majors Jordan Hicks has been a force in the league.  Hick’s first pitched was 100.8 MPH sinker that immediately grabbed the attention of players, media and fans.  While Hicks was showing he could throw the hardest fastballs in the league, he was still not getting the strikeout numbers that a player of his caliber should be.

Averaging just an 8.1 so/9 in 2018. Hicks has a rocket for an arm, but has still now established a secondary pitch that is effective enough to make him an elite level reliever. In April, 175 pitchers threw at least 50 sliders, and only four got fewer swings than Hicks’ 28.6 percent. It was worse outside the zone, which is where you really want sliders to induce swings and misses. Only two pitchers got fewer chases then Hicks did.

 Then all of a sudden in June, Hicks began to establish his slider. Hicks was able to go from a 30% swing and miss rate to a 60% swing and miss rate, doubling his strikeouts from the month before in three less innings.  When Hicks has a slider working he is a pitching that can be a potential closer.  Start the season dominating with a slider.

Mike Schildt- Don’t be Mike Matheny

This one is easy.  Don’t be Mike Matheny.  Trust your young players and make changes when you need to. Don’t be like Matheny.

NBA DFS Picks- December 27

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Unlike most in the DFS world I really enjoy a smaller slate. Five gamers allow you go play a stars and scrubs lineup and have a great chance to win. You can highlight a few players you want to watch. Here are the picks for tonights slate.

PG: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors ($8,900)

I am drawn to a Warriors stack after the embarasment from Christmas night. The Blazers have been underwhelming to say the least and have a serious issues guarding the three. Damian Lillard on the other end seems like a solid play but I am going heavy Warriors tonight.

SG: Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers ($5,800)

No Lebron, this becomes Ingrams team again whether the fans want it or not.

SF: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors ($9,300)

I reference my Steph Curry reasoning.

PF: Noah Vonleh, New York Knicks ($5,600)

Vonleh seems to be the only matchup the Knicks have against Giannis. He has played like the player people thought he would be coming out of Indiana. Vonleh also just put up 36 points on Christmas day against the same Bucks team he is playing tonight. Low cost for a solid matchup.

C: Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Lakers ($5,400)

This pick could change depending on the health of Javale McGee, no matter what Zubac has been very impressive when given time to play. Centers versus Kings are also always a solid play.

G: Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers ($5,500)

Ball is a similar play to Zubac. With Rondo out he will be the primary point guard. Again PG’s versus Kings is also a solid play on most nights.

F: Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics ($4,700)

Not gonna lie this one is a wildcard pick against a poor Houston defense. Hayward has been streaky all season, but brings multiple potential options for points. Hayward has been consistent with 25 minutes per game and could have a couple of nice matchups in this one.

UTL: Nemanja Bjelica, Sacramento Kings ($4,800)

Bjelica is a solid player and the Kings will need to use their bench playing back to back games.

I will look to make changes based on injuries. Also may look to stack more Kings/Lakers players. Want to stick with Durant and Curry as my star plays.

NFL 2018: Five Things I was wrong about

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Being wrong sucks, but admitting you were wrong is the sign of growth.  Here are the five things that I was completely wrong about before the start of the season.

Chicago Bears are the third best team in their own division.

When the Bears pulled off what could have been the steal of the century acquiring Khalil Mack from the Raiders I knew it was going to be an impactful move.  But with an offense that featured a second year QB that had not yet proven much on the NFL level and a new head coach that was transitioning his style I wasn’t sold on them as NFC North winners.

I was very wrong.  Matt Nagy has taken Trubisky and the Bears offense to a new level in 2018 while utilizing his Swiss army knife RB Tarik Cohen and many ancillary pieces.  This team is still built around their defense but the surprise for most teams will be Nagy’s offense in the playoffs.  Multiple targets that can step up at any time will be a headache for opposing defensive coordinators. 


Can’t believe I fell for Kirk Cousins.

Le’Veon Bell is going to play in 2018.

I was one of those guys that drafted Bell in his fantasy draft.  I am also one of those guys that refused to trade him despite great offers…actually turning down a trade of Michael Thomas and Andrew Luck. 

Bell stuck to his guns, as did the Steelers, sitting out the entire season.  James Conner and Jaylen Samuels filled in admirably for Bell, but the Steelers are most likely not making the playoffs and whether this was because of Bell or not I was still very wrong about his playing status. I’m not mad at Bell but it really sucked for my fantasy squad.

The Jaguars are a Superbowl favorite in the AFC.

I bought into Jacksonville and Blake Bortles. Shame on me.  Injuries have been a problem for the Jags, Leonard Fournette has a problem with staying healthy and without him this team just has not been able to put together a kind of consistent run. 

After defeating Patriots I thought that maybe I was right about the potential of this team and maybe Blake Bortles is actually good, when you are wrong, you are wrong.

I was wrong.


The Broncos may make the playoffs.

This was an in season change of opinion Phillip Lindsey came out of nowhere to become an elite level RB in the league. Two upset victories over the Chargers and the Steelers made me believe this team was going to make a real run in their division.  Then the real Case Keenum stood up. The one-dimensional offense of the Broncos became very obvious, Lindsey had to face stacked boxes with zero passing ability.  Von Miller and Bradley Chubb are both great players but a team with no real offense and terrible coaching never truly had a chance to succeed.

Baker Mayfield was the best Quarterback in the Draft.

Drafting Baker Mayfield #1 overall last season, seemed like another blunder from the Cleveland front office.  With standouts like Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen presumably ranked ahead of Mayfield it made no sense to go after the controversial Oklahoma QB. Mayfield was held back by the clueless Hue Jackson and when given the opportunity Mayfield immediately made his impact and began to turn around the sorry franchise. Mayfield is the leading candidate to win rookie of the year (in my opnion) and has proven me and all other doubters…cough Colin Cowherd… completely wrong.  Mayfield is a star and will be for a long time.

Bowl Game Picks ATS- Dec 26

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First Responder Bowl: Boston College Eagles vs Boise State Broncos -2.5

The Boise State Broncos enter bowl season winners of 7 of 8 with the only loss coming in the MWC Championship game to Fresno State.  They are set for a matchup with the Boston College Eagles who opened the season on a tear at 7-2 before injuries doomed them to three straight losses to end the campaign. 

Eagles QB Anthony Brown and RB AJ Dillon are both set to play in this game which will make a huge difference for a team that has been lost on the offense without their two playmakers.  The Eagles also have to face a defense that hasn’t given up more than 24 points since back in October.  Boston College will struggle to score

The Broncos will have QB Brett Rypien who averaged 285 yards per game this season adding 30 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions.  Rypien will have had three weeks to prospect his adversaries in this one, making him even more lethal.  Rypien along with Junior RB Alexander Mattison will make for a stronger punch then the aforementioned Brown and Dillon. 

Both teams have stronger defenses than offenses, but the edge on both ends has to go to a healthy Boise State team that seems to have a history of beating power five teams.  Take Boise State to cover because of their defense.

Boise State -2.5

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota Golden Golphers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -6

Georgia Tech is going to run the ball…duh.  Can the Minnesota Golden Gopher defense stop that run game…. no.  Minnesota’s defensive strength is their pass rush which will be completely negated by the fact that the Yellow Jackets never really throw the ball. 

Both Georgia Tech “Quarterbacks”  TeQuon Marshall and Tobias Oliver ran for over 800 yards, while as a team Georgia Tech averaged an astounding 334.9 yards per game during the regular season. This will be a huge problem for a Minnesota team that dug deep in the regular season to salvage themselves a shot at a bowl game. 

Minnesota has some nice wins on their schedule including victories over MWC Champion Fresno State, Purdue and at Wisconsin. But the rushing attack of Georgia Tech and the inexperience at QB with their second freshman starter of the year Tanner Morgan makes this seem like an insurmountable task for Head Coach PJ Fleck and company.  Minnesota had a nice season but they don’t cover the six points.

Georgia Tech -6

Cheez-It Bowl: California Golden Bears -1 vs. TCU Horned Frogs

The TCU Horned Frogs may want 2018 to ended worse than any other team in the country. A pre-season top 25 team was the definition of injury riddled this year, entering the Cheez-It Bowl with their 3rd string QB and 2nd string RB.  This would be bad news for any team but a matchup with the surprisingly stingy California Golden Bears makes this a nightmare after Christmas. The Golden Bears featured the No. 24 scoring defense in all of college football holding offense juggernauts like Washington to just 10 points and Washington State to 19 points.

TCU will start senior Grayson Muehlstein at QB, coming off a great victory against the uninspired Oklahoma State Cowboys in the final week of the season. Big 12 defenses, especially after two tough games the previous week are usually not the toughest of opponents so that win doesn’t carry the weight it may have earlier in the season.

TCU has a lot of talent on both ends despite the missing pieces but California will just make it too tough for them to score.  Still believe TCU makes this a game based on the fact that despite all of the injuries the spread is only at 1 point.  I have to go with California to pull off the victory by at least 3 points. 

California -1

Bragging Right Preview and Prediction

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Bragging rights are on the line once again at the Enterprise Center Saturday night when the Missouri Tigers and University of Illinois Illini meet for the 49th time.  Missouri will look to keep this rivalry relevant as they try to end the Illini’s 5 game win streak in the series.

The 2017 meeting was one to forget for a tournament bound Missouri team as they had serious ball control issues. The Tigers had 21 turnovers en route to a 70-64 loss in a game that they were favored.  The Illinois got a dominate performance from sophomore Trent Frazier scoring 22 points off of the bench. The loss a tough one to take for most Mizzou fans as they were the favored team, they did have the big-time recruits even without Michael Porter Jr.  This loss stung for the Tiger faithful, they will look to avenge this loss and the Illinois dominance on Saturday night.

If this game didn’t have enough intrigue to it the Tigers have three players that originally committed to Illinois on their roster in Jeremiah Tilmon, Mark Smith and Javon Pickett.  The Illini faithful will undoubtable bring their full focus of hatred to these players, which will make for an even more raucous atmosphere. Despite the two teams not being highly ranked, this game still has plenty of intrigue to the St. Louis community. 

The actual game will be an interesting matchup of differing styles.  Missouri brings a hard-nosed defensive effort against a faster Illini attack. Illinois allows 12 offensive rebounds per game while also being the sixth most foul prone team in the nation. Jeremiah Tilmon has continued to develop most recently dominating the boards against a respectable Xavier team that defeated Illinois earlier in the season. Ball control will be the name of the game for Mizzou, the offense will have to break the pressing Illini and be able to set up their half court offense.  If Tilmon is allowed to establish himself on the block early it will open up shots for guards Jordan Geist and Mark Smith. 

It will be a bitter sweet pill for Illini fans to swallow if it is Tilmon and Smith that make the difference on Saturday night. Illinois will have to feed off of the crowd to establish their style. Madness and energy from the crowd and in game will make the difference.

Prediction:

Illinois was able to establish their tempo last year. The addition of Mark Smith will allow the Tigers to control the tempo better and the advantage on the inside is just too much to overcome for Illinois. 

Tigers when in an ugly one: 68-60.

CBB Picks ATS December 19

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Picks ATS December 19 2018

CBB: Virginia -8.5 at South Carolina

Virginia is 6-3 against the spread during their 9-0 start, holding teams to an average of 51ppg. South Carolina is in a rebuilding mode this season. Virginia will be to much for the Gamecocks to handle on both ends. Look for a low scoring game that covers by double digits.

Virginia -8.5

CBB: Auburn -125 at NC State

A lot of people are high on NC State heading into this matchup with SEC powerhouse Auburn. Going to Raleigh is never easy for any team but Auburn is full of veterans that will be ready for the crazy atmosphere. The Wolfpack are 8-2 ATS this season, I am a believer in veteran guard pulling off big victories. Give me the Tigers to pull it out.

Auburn ML

CBB: Samford at Tennessee Total: 149.5

Tennessee has shown offensive prowess that they didn’t have last season. Admiral Schofield has developed into a SEC Player of the Year Candidate. Tennessee jumps on Samford early and coast to the victory 85-60.

Under 149.5

CBB: Southern Mississippi at Kansas State Total: 128

K-State overs have been my go to most of the season. This one seems to low for a team that they should route. K-State Wins 70-61

Over 128

CBB: Arkansas Little-Rock at Memphis -14

I love Penny Hardaway’s attitude. He has brought relevance back to the program and will be a contender next season. At home they dominate and lesser Little-Rock team.

Memphis Tigers -14

Dexter Fowler- 2019’s Most Important Player?

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The saga of Dexter Fowler is sickening to pretty much all Cardinals fans.  His 2018 regression was historically awful, his perceived love of the Chicago Cubs is inexcusable.  Nevertheless, entering into the 2019 season, he may be the most important piece to a team that seems primed to get back to the playoffs. 

Fowler is not what Cardinals fans want, he’s not Bryce Harper. It’s time to accept the fact that most likely the Cardinals will enter the season with Fowler as the projected starting right fielder. He will play the role of either #2 hitter setting up for offseason pickup Paul Goldschmidt or he will be batting in the 6th spot protecting the bigger bats.  .180/.278/.298 are numbers you expect to see from a Starting Pitcher rather than your $16.5 million per year starting outfielder.  But to say that he repeats those numbers is almost unfathomable. In Fowler’s worst season outside of 2018 the lowest OBP he recorded was .364 in 2015, his lowest OPS .757 also in 2015. Whether it was the reported depression, injury or who knows what else, regression of that level is unheard of in major league history. 

While the Cardinals may never have the man to live up the contract that was signed in the offseason of 2016 realistically they don’t need the Fowler that posted an .840 and .851 OPS in 2016 and 2017.  They need a Fowler that can be at his career average at best to be successful. Despite his dreadful 2018 Fowler still has a career OPS of .780 nearly 60 points higher than the MLB average was in 2018.  Looking at the 2018 playoff teams worst OPS player you can see that all the Cardinals would need is a below average season from Fowler to get what they need.

Rockies, Ian Desmond, 160 games, .729 OPS

Brewers, Ryan Braun, 125 games, .782 OPS

Dodgers, Chris Taylor, 155 games, .775 OPS

Braves, Ender Inciarte, 156 games, .705 OPS

Combined average = .747 OPS

Fowler would need to be at just a .747 OPS to be where the Cardinals would need him to be. As previously stated only one time in his career has he posted an OPS below that mark (last season). While they were small, Fowler did show signs of life before his foot injury raising his OPS to .659 when compared to his June .412.  He added three homeruns in 64 at-bats in July compared to the zero he had in 55 at-bats in June.  Signs of life were there but quickly faded after getting hit by a pitch in early August. 

His defense has been the subject of criticism as well last season, but he was never touted as a Gold Glover before being signed.  With the addition of Paul Goldschmidt the Cardinals now have at least four potential Gold Glove winners, Bader, Wong, Yadi, Goldy and a past winner in Marcell Ozuna.  Any issues Fowler has in the field should be covered by the play of those around him.  He isn’t worse than Jose Martinez and the Cardinals were fine with risking their defense for the bigger bat. 

I want Bryce Harper, I want Tyler O’Neil to get more at bats.  But seemingly that is not going to be a guaranteed option unless the Cardinals are willing to eat $41 million over the next two seasons.  The Cardinals are not going to do that, they are going to ride with Fowler until they are forced to realize that he has nothing left.  This team now has its cornerstone bat in the middle of the order, they have the pitching staff that can give them a chance to win every night. All they need is a small piece of the player they believed they had signed to be successful.  It’s there, hopefully we see it.

@italksportsti

NBA Trade Candidates

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Hassan Whiteside is a talented player at a position that has become devalued with the emergence of the run and gun offense.  Heat GM Pat Riley gave Whiteside a lot of money giving him a 4-year/ $98 million in 2016 placing him as a franchise player.  Clashes with Coach Eric Spoelstra, “injuries”, and further emergence of Bam Adebayo have put Whiteside on the outside of the future plans for the Heat.  Who would take and him? 

Unlikely but interesting: Cleveland Cavaliers.

I know the Cavaliers have a player named Tristan Thompson that is very similar.  Thompson though doesn’t bring the star power or the offense that Whiteside can bring.  2018-19 is a lost season for the Cavaliers but a trade for Whiteside would give the a core that would be very formidable in the East.  Kevin Love, Colin Sexton, Cedi Osman and Whiteside would give the Cavaliers a starting lineup that could be bottom tier of playoff eligibility.  Not to mention the Cavaliers will be looking at potential top five pick next summer.

Moving George Hill and releasing JR Smith can be a bit of a problem for the potential of moving money.  But if the Cavaliers put up Thompson and another piece they can realistically move money that would make it acceptable for the Heat.  Would Spoelstra and Riley be willing to move one locker room problem for another potential problem?  Unlikely but why not.

Makes sense: Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers jumped out to a nice start during the 2018 season.  The illusion of their ability is starting to show after a couple lopsided losses to the Raptors w/o Kawhi and the rebuilding San Antonio Spurs. Adding a player like Whiteside can make them a real threat in the West.  Pairing him with the rising star of Tobias Harris and multiple ancilary players can make them a tough matchup at multiple positions.

The Clippers appear set on not giving Montrez Harrell full starter minutes so its safe to say they don’t believe he is the answer at the center position.  Whiteside can not only help them of offense but can handle the paint allowing the guards to move the ball out after a defensive stop. The Clippers have a ragtag group of players, adding a potential star like Whiteside could be just the boost they need for the remainder of the season. 

Picking up Whitesides remaining contract could make it tough to add two players in the offseason, but if their target is going to be Kawhi Leonard they could add to his interest by having one of the best two way big men in the league.  

Should do it: Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are at a crossroads. They are good enough to make the playoffs but are not good enough to win anything.  They have a built in star with Kemba Walker as well as a strong set of role players.  They are missing a piece to pair with their star.  Enter Hassan Whiteside. Charlotte may be turned off at the idea of adding another troubled center after the Dwight Howard experiment did not pay off, but with the veteran presence of Tony Parker on the bench and the leadership of MJ this move could be the ticket to the next level for a Charlotte franchise that has seen limited success.  

Cody Zeller and Bismarck Biyombo have filled in the role of center during the 2018 season, clearly Whiteside would make for a upgrade on multiple levels.  His presence on the offensive end would open up opportunities for Kemba Walker and allow Zeller to move to the bench, which can strengthen the second unit.  Unlike the previous teams listed it would be tough for the Hornets to make an offer that would be intriguing for the Heat.  Charlotte does not have the expiring contracts potentially needed to make the move. They do however have their first round picks for the next two seasons.  Moving one of those picks and two expiring contracts could be all it takes to get the Heat to move on from a player they do not see a future with. Whiteside has his negatives but the potential for stardom is their.  Charlotte will have to make the first move.