Month: March 2022

Sweet Sixteen Bets

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St. Peter’s Peacocks vs. Purdue Boilermakers

The Peacocks are a great story.  They beat Kentucky, they beat Murray State but they will not beat Purdue.  The Boilermakers are loaded including star guard Jaden Ivey,7’ 4” Zach Edey, forward Trevion Williams and underrated role players Eric Hunter, Mason Gillis and Stefan Stefanovic.  The Peacocks will not have an answer for the size of Edey, even if the Peacocks star KC NDefo is able to slow down Jaden Ivey they won’t be able to stop the post game of the Boilermakers.

The St. Peters offense has been playing above their level over the last two games, but ultimately they are a below average offense and they foul a lot on the defensive end.  We know after Sunday that Purdue knows how to get to the line. They will do that a lot and they will dominate the interior.  This fun is over for St. Peters, Purdue will win by twenty.

Pick: Purdue Boilermakers  -12.5

Michigan Wolverines vs. Villanova Wildcats

Michigan was left for dead after their 4-3 start.  If it wasn’t for their victories within conference the Wolverines may be playing in the NIT. Nevertheless the Wolverines find themselves in the Sweet 16 led by their All-American Hunter Dickinson. His 27 points and 11 rebounds led the charge in the upset versus Tennessee in the second round, his ability to control the paint while being able to shoot the three when needed makes him a matchup nightmare. 

Villanova has the experience needed to go all the way.  Collin Gillespie and company have been efficient on offense in week one of the tournament and should be able to take advantage of the inconsistent defense of Michigan. The Wolverines rank 170th in effective field goal percentage during the regular season, the Wildcat offense will try to slow them down and take advantage of open shots.  

Michigan has top ten talent all through the roster. They have picked up their intensity on the defensive end especially holding down three point shooters.  The Wolverines size will be a problem for Nova, they will not be able to get inside and that will cause them problems trying to connect from deep.  Nova needs the three to drop consistently because Michigan will be able to control the boards with Dickinson and Freshman Moussa Diabete. The length and advantage on the glass will allow Michigan to keep this close.  I would still take the points but I can see them pulling out the outright upset.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines +5

Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats

Elite defense vs. elite offense.  Quick pace vs slow pace.  The matchup between Houstona and Arizona is a complete mismatch of styles. 

 The Houston Cougars will look to grind it out and limit possessions. They have the 338th ranked tempo in all of college basketball.  Despite their slow pace they are still a very efficient offense, ranking 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Houston is able to put themselves in great position to get the shot they want or at the very least grind down a defense which they take advantage of on the offensive glass.  Houston is merciless on the glass, snagging offensive rebounds on 37% of possessions. This is going to be a problem for Arizona, coming off of a game where TCU was able to dominate the glass and put a scare into the #1 seed in the South.  

Arizona found a way to get by TCU, whether it was a bad call or not the Wildcats still found a way to win behind their star Bennidict Mathurin and Cristain Koloko.  The Wildcats are deep, they have multiple weapons that come off the bench and produce, if they can get the ball moving they will be able to wear out Houston. The key will be to make sure they clean up the defensive glass. When they get the ball they need to let Mathurin loose 

The Houston defense has not  given up over 68 points just once in their last ten games. They have not had to put up the numbers on the offensive end to keep up with teams. They rely too much on dominating the offensive glass.  Arizona has the length and athletes to neutralize Houston’s biggest asset. 

Pick: Arizona ML

A quick look at the South Region

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Best first round game- Houston vs UAB

Houston had big aspirations heading into the season.  Last year’s final four team was looking for a repeat performance in 2022.  Injuries to Tramon Mark and more importantly Marcus Sasser put a halt to the Cougars momentum.  Houston was still able to win the American Conference regular season and tournament title’s but they were not able to pick up a lot of trademark wins throughout the season.  They will matchup with the UAB Blazers high powered offense led by Jelly Walker.  The Blazers average 79 ppg and will look to run early and often. 

Houston will do all it can to dictate the pace, if they fall behind early they don’t have the firepower to overcome a deficit.  Kelvin Sampsons squad are in for a fight.

Sleeper- Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines pre-season hype may have been overblown but the talent they possess is real.  All-American Hunter Dickinson leads a team that entered the season in the top ten and owns wins over Purdue, at Iowa and at Ohio State.  The Wolverines seem to lose focus on the defensive end, but if they can find a way to lock in they have the offensive stars to make a run.  

They have a great big man, a senior guad and NBA level talent in Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate.  

Final- Tennessee vs. Arizona

The Volunteers got screwed in the seeding. They likely should have earned themselves a 2nd seed after winning the SEC tournament.  Despite that they find themselves in a good spot to make it to the Elite Eight.  Potential Sweet Sixteen matchups are the injured Buckeyes, an overrated mid-major Loyola and an underwhelming Villanova squad.  The Vols can shut you down on the defensive end and have gotten great guard play from Santiago Vescovi, Kennedy Chandleer and Zakai Ziegler. 

If the Vols continue their hot streak they will likely take on the extremely talented Arizona Wildcats.  The Cats are loaded, they are a top five offense with multiple bigs that can control the glass.  Christian Kokolo can dominate a game without the ball by controlling the paint, he allows the guards to play with a controlled chaos that is tough to guard. They also have a stud in Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona has everything but experience.  Sometimes talent is all you need, they have proven that all year.

Winner- Arizona

Bid Stealers- Teams that can break the bubble

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ACC: Virginia Tech Hokies

The ACC is having a down year.  With likely only Duke being a complete lock for the tournament, every win is important.  Virginia Tech is currently 10-8 in conference and an unimpressive 18-11 overall.  Of those 18 victories none of them are quad 1 wins. The best win of the season was at home against Notre Dame.  

Virginia Tech will enter the ACC tournament, playing for their tournament lives.  With the ACC not having the depth of previous seasons, the Hokies could play their way into the tournament.  Tech features one of the best defensive teams in the country, they rank 17th in the country in points against giving up just 61 ppg.  They are loaded with veteran players, starting three seniors and two juniors and a coach who knows how to win big games in Mike Young.  Virginia Tech is not an offensive juggernaut, they are however very efficient on the offensive end.  They are 22nd in the nation in shooting efficiency, they are led by Kevin Aluma, a Senior that can score from the inside or mid range.  Along with Aluma, they feature some sharp shooting guards Storm Murphy and Hunter Catoor.

Virginia Tech as a team shooting 39% from deep and play hard nosed defense.  Their record doesn’t show how good they are, they could easily make a run in the ACC tournament knocking another bubble team out of the big dance.

Big East: St. John’s Red Storm

The Big East was extremely underrated heading into the season.  Most thought it was just Villanova or nobody, instead the Big East has been a breeding ground for tournament sleepers. Mike Anderson’s fast paced offensive attack could help the St. John’s Red Storm find themselves playing deep into March. 

The Red Storm play at a pace that is hard to match.  Led by Julian Champagnie who is averaging 23 ppg in Big East play, St. Johns can score with any team in the conference.  They have already proven they can score against great defensive competition, putting up 84 against Seton Hall, 86 against Xavier and 94 against Butler. They lead the conference averaging 84 ppg, with a healthy Posh Alexander running the show the Red Storm can beat you in multiple ways. If they can carry their offense into the tournament they are going to be a problem for the opposition and anyone sitting on the bubble.  

A-10: SLU Billikens

The Atlantic 10 will likely get at least two teams in the tourney.  Davidson is a near lock, but VCU, Dayton and St Bonaventrue are knocking on the door, very quietly.  With Davidson being a near lock, them losing in the A-10 tournament could be the downfall for a bubble squad needing the extra spot.  In steps the St. Louis Billikens, Travis Ford’s Bills lost their best player before the season even tipped off but they still have put together a solid resume that while not tournament worthy shows that they can be very dangerous in a single elimination tournament.  Much like the Red Storm SLU has set themselves a part on the offensive end, averaging a conference best 77 ppg.  PG, Yuri Collins has become a conference player of the year candidate and likely will be a pre-season player of the year candidate in his junior  year.  Collins is an assist machine, averaging 8 per game on the season, he leads an offense that has multiple tools to thrash opposing defenses. 

St. Louis had some bad losses, but played well against power house Auburn and beat Boston College and MTN West standout Boise State.  The Bills are not great on defense but it isnt a liability.  They rank middle of the pack in most categories and have a great rim protector in Francis Okoro controlling the paint.  The Bills offense and ability to protect the rim without fouling will put them in great position to potentially win the A-10 tournament that outside of Davidson has not been elite teams.