College Football Betting

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 7

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Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks Total 53.5

The Razorbacks have become one of the most exciting teams in college football this season.  The rebuild of the hogs has been one of the best stories of the college football season. They can get another statement win on Saturday when they take on the vulnerable Auburn Tigers coming off of a tough loss to Georgia last week.

KJ Jefferson has been awesome for the Hogs, he totaled 6 touchdowns against Ole Miss.   Jefferson and the Arkansas offense have been dominant against anyone not named Georgia.  Arkansas will be able to score points at home behind their run game.  This offense has been able to find holes in most defenses with aggressive play calling.  The Razorbacks entered this season with literally zero expectations, so they can go all out in every game.  

Auburn has averaged 35 points per game this season.  Most of those points were accrued against shotty defenses.  They were able to put together two 60+ point performances against Alabama St and Akron. The Tigers have two monsters at RB in Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter, both have run for over 450 yards this season.  Hunter is the big play back, while Bigsby is the consistent power runner that will break down a defense.  They got to face off with an Arkansas defense that gave up 100 yards on the ground to two separate Ole Miss RBs. Bo Nix finally had his consecutive passes without an interception streak ended against Georgia’s top ranked defense.  

Arkansas gave up 89 points in their last two games, which included 600 yards last week. Auburn may prefer to slow down the pace but they will have too many chances for explosive runs from Tank Bigsby.  The Razorbacks will be able to provide enough offense to keep them in the game.  This won’t be the shootout that last week’s Ole Miss- Arkansas game was but it will be feisty and high scoring, Auburn will prevail by just outscoring an Arkansas team that doesn’t have the defensive players to stop the run.  The Razorbacks are also 3-0 to the over in their home games this season. They can score enough to make this interesting at least.

Pick: Over 53.5, Auburn ML

BYU Cougars at Baylor Bears -6.5

The BYU Cougars were on track to make an outside run at the the college football playoff  until they were tripped up at the hands of the Boise State Broncos.  The Cougars were uncharacteristically loose with the ball, turning it over four times at home.  This was QB Jaren Hall’s first game back after sitting out the previous two games, throwing for 300 yards and a touchdown.  Boise State was able to bottle up the scrambling ability of Hall, holding him to negative yardage.  Hall will need to be able to utilize his scrambling ability to keep the Bears defense off balance.  If the Baylor linebackers are forced to shadow Hall, it should open up running lanes for the Cougars stud running back Tyler Allegier.  Allegier is 6th in college football running for 642 yards on the season.  

Baylor has been a bit of a surprise to start the season. Their most recent blowout victory over West Virginia brought their record to 5-1 overall, 4-2 ATS.  The Bears win with offense, averaging 38 ppg and averaging 450 yards per game.  QB Gerry Bohannon was electric against the Mountaineers, throwing for 336 yards and 4 touchdowns.  The Bears have been great at home going 3-0 SU and ATS.  The Bears have the ability to put points up on you in a hurry, if they can hold downt he run game of BYU they should have success on the defensive end. 

The Baylor Bears have Texas, TCU and Oklahoma coming up over the three weeks following this matchup. It would not be shocking to think they will be distracted in an obvious look ahead spot.  The Bears should have enough to win this game but they will not be able to run all over a stingy BYU defense that has already shut down Pac 12 powerhouses Arizona State and Utah.  BYU will try to run the ball to grind down the clock and not allow the Baylor offense to be on the field.  Baylor is at home and brings more offense to the table but the Cougars should be able to stick around in this one.  I’m rolling with the Cougars, if they don’t turn the ball over they are a handful to deal with. 

Pick: BYU Cougars +6.5 

Utah State Aggies at UNLV Rebels

Utah State kicked off their season with a trio of victories over Washington State, Air Force and North Dakota.  Their momentum was immediately stopped when they ran into the class of the Mountain West in losses to both Boise State and BYU. They will travel to face off against a UNLV team that has been playing better but has been unable to get over the hump in their historic losing streak. 

The Aggies have a vaunted passing game, averaging 303 yards through the air (15th in nation). Their uptempo offense has been a problem for opposing defenses, they have averaged 495 total yards per game. QB Logan Bonner has thrown for 1,235 yards, while his top target Deven Thompkins has put up 639 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Aggies also have a strong ground game averaging 175 yards per game.  Utah State has a favorable matchup along with a whole week to prepare.  They have taken advantage of lesser competition all season and should be able to do it again on Saturday. 

UNLV has lost 11 straight games.  Their most recent loss to UTSA they were torched through the air by Frank Harris for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Rebels will have to find a way to get pressure on Logan Bonner.  Bonner has had problems with turnovers over the last two weeks.  If UNLV is able to force takeaways they can stay in the game.  The Rebels have only forced 6 takeaways through their first five games and will have to be prepared for the fast paced Aggies that are averaging 80 plays per game this season.  

UNLV has to run the ball and control the clock, they do not have a defense that can match up with Utah State.  It’s simple, if Utah State holds onto the ball, they should be able to score at will.  Aggies will win in a route.  

Pick: Utah State Aggies -6

NCAAF Week 2 Picks

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Toledo Rockets at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -16.5

Think the Notre Dame defense may be out to make a statement on Saturday after being thrashed by the Florida State Seminoles?  I think so and they will get a shot to make a statement against a Toledo Rockets team that will look to go fast.  The Rockets have experienced skilled players to put up points but the Fighting Irish have more talent and will have a raucous crowd ready for them in their first true home game since 2019. 

Florida State was able to contain the Notre Dame run game, forcing Jack Coen to beat them (and he did).  Toledo does not have the same type of players to contain RB Kyren Williams.  I think this stays close early but the Fighting Irish pull away in the second half because of the crowd and the run game.  

Pick: Notre Dame -16.5

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin Badgers Total 52

The Badgers were not very impressive in week one against Penn State.  This week the competition changes as they get the MAC’s Eastern Michigan fresh off a beat down of FCS St. Francis.  St. Francis was actually able to move the ball pretty well against Eastern Michigan which spells trouble for the Eagles. 

Wisconsin got a brutal performance from QB Graham Mertz who threw for just 185 yards to go along with two picks.  Wisconsin will look to get out some of their aggression against the Eagles.  The Badgers have a history of dominating MAC teams including Kent State and Central Michigan in 2019 where they won 106-0 over those two matchups. 

Eastern Michigan will look to take all the chances they can in this game and Wisconsin showed that they can give up the big pass play, giving up two long tuddy’s to Penn State last week  Eastern Michigan should be able to put up at least ten points but this game will be dominated by the Wisconsin offense that will need to squash their lesser foe to put wash away the stink of their home loss a week ago.  

Pick: Over 52

Texas Longhorns -7 at Arkansas Razorbacks 

The Razorbacks didn’t look great to start, trailing the Rice Owls 17-7 at one point in the third quarter.  That quickly turned around with 31 unanswered points, led by the running game of QB KJ Jefferson.  Arkansas leaned on the QB’s run game to carry the offense and the turnover game to carry the defense. Arkansas forced three turnovers in the second half which turned the game around in their favor.

Texas quietly had arguably the second best overall performance by any ranked team taking down #23 Ragin Cajuns without much of a sweat.  RB Bjorn Robinson had 170 all purpose yards to go along with 2 scores.  The Longhorns handled a team that was returning most of the starters that had gone 10-1 the season before with an upset over Iowa State.  Texas will now go on the road to face a hungry and improved Arkansas team. 

This will be the first road test for freshman starter Hudson Card and it will be a hostile one. His job will be to manage the game and utilize his star running back and the superior talent.  Card threw for 224 yards before being pulled late in the third quarter due to the lopsided score.  Look for Card to open it up more in this matchup as this will be a marquee showdown of the weekend between Texas and an SEC foe.  This game will come down to which quarterback plays smarter.  KJ Jeffereson cannot play wild, he will likely be given a chance to throw as the Texas defense will look to contain his running ability.  I can see him throwing a few picks down the stretch and allowing the Texas run game to take over and control the game.  

Pick Texas Longhorns -7

NCAAF Picks, Big 12 and Conference USA plus Mizzou

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Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs 

Mizzou reached their peak getting ranked in the top 25 last week.  They didn’t do anything with their momentum getting obliterated in the second half against the far superior Georgia Bulldogs.  Missouri has still had a solid year under first year Head Coach Eli Drinkwitz.  The Tigers are 5-4 and will be looking to get themselves to a bowl game.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs on the other hand have had a terrible season in their first season with Head Coach Mike Leach, going 2-7.  Their season opening upset over defending national champion LSU is just a blip in the season. 

The Tigers have leaned on RB Larry Roundtree, running for 851 yards and 12 touchdowns.  The Tigers have steady QB play since switching full time to Connor Blazek.  The Tigers have a lot to play for going into this game.  Their defense has given up 30 ppg on the season but Miss St has had some problems finishing drives.  They will need every point they can get in this one as the defense will be without senior defensive lineman Marquiss Spencer.  

Mike Leach has publicly come out about his frustrations for this season and his team has seen a lot of players call it quits due to covid.  Mizzou has a lot to play for in this one and will be inspired to put on a good performance.  They lean on Roundtree and out score the Bulldogs.  The Tigers roll and it won’t be close. 

Pick: Missouri -1

UAB Blazers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

UAB will enter its third straight Conference USA Championship game against the team that had been dominating the conference for most of the season.  Marshall’s shocking 20-0 loss to RIce two weeks ago was their lone setback of the season. The Thundering Herd are 5-3 against the spread this season led primarily by their defense.  Marshall has given up just 10 points per game this season.  An outstanding number no matter what conference you are in.   As an overall unit they are ranked 35th in the nation.  

Marshall’s freshman QB Grant Wells has had a few weeks to think about his worst performance of the season against RIce.  If you take the Rice game out, Wells has been solid for the Marshall offense throwing for 16 TD and 4 interceptions.   The Thundering Herd will go back to the basics on offense to allow the young QB to just manage the game and let the defense do its thing.  

UAB has been killed by turnovers this season.  The Blazers have 15 turnovers this season including multiple turnovers in 4 straight games before ending the streak last week against Rice.  UAB has to hold onto the ball to have a chance in this game.  Marshall has a better offense and defense.  This will be a low scoring defensive showcase that Marshall will dominate.  

Pick: Marshall -5

Oklahoma Sooners vs.  Iowa State Cyclones

Oklahoma has turned its season around after a disastrous start that included a loss to Iowa State .  Freshman QB Spencer Rattler has progressed through his early struggles to put together a nice season with 2,512 yards and 24 TD.  It has been the Sooner defense that has stepped up the most, especially against the run.  Oklahoma has allowed just 93 yards per game on the ground, ranking them 7th in the nation.  

Iowa State has had a great season.  RB Bryce Hall was a one man show in his last meeting with Oklahoma running for 139 yards and 2 TD in their first meeting.  Hall did that to most opposing defenses this year running for 1,375 yards and 17 TD.  The Cyclones are one of the slower offensive units in college football.  They will look to utilize Hall to move the ball while eating up the clock.  Their commitment to the run has allowed QB Brock Purdy to find success downfield.  If Iowa State wants to win this game they have to be able to win the battle on the ground.  

Oklahoma has had two weeks to prepare for this game.  Their last game on December 5th against Baylor.  Lincoln Riley should have his freshman QB prepared for this but I think this is going to come down to the stable play of Brock Purdy.  Purdy has been great down the stretch throwing no interceptions in their last three games and connecting on 80% of his passes.  The Iowa State offensive line will keep Purdy upright and they will control the clock with their superior run game.  

Pick: Iowa State +5.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 18-13

NCAAF Picks ATS

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Central Michigan Chippewas at Toledo Rockets

The Toledo Rockets enter this game with one of the best passing attacks in college football.  The teams they have played make that easier statistically, but the MAC is the MAC.  They bring  that top 8 rated passing attack up against a team that has had serious problems stopping the pass.  The Chippewas are coming off an embarrassing loss to Ball State where they were shredded through the air for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Things should not change much against Toledo.

Toledo QB Carter Bradley was impressive last week throwing for 432 yards and 3 tds against Northern Illinois.  Bradley was forced into action because of the injury to starter Elliot Peters.  Whether it is Peters or Bradley under center shouldn’t matter much against the putrid defense of Central Michigan.  If it is Bradley, he will have an additional week likely taking more snaps with the first team.  The Rockets offense has been dynamite all season averaging 37.2 PPG, that will continue on Saturday. 

Central Michigan’s defense has problems but the offense has still been solid averaging 33 PPG.  Ty Brook took over at QB last week and put on a solid showing with 188 yards and 3 tds.  Central Michigan will need him to stay accurate to compete, the Toledo defense has been pretty solid versus the run. 

This game’s total seems way too low.  Both offenses move fast and score fast.  The 11 point spread means book makers see Toledo running away with it, that means Central will be forced to move even faster.  I am going with the over and considering laying the points with Toledo.  For now, stick with the over. 

Pick: Over 52.5


North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes 

Miami is 8-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Clemson.  Quietly they own a great record and have been solid against the spread at 6-3.  Miami has a great QB in D’Eriq King.  King is coming off of a dominant game against Duke, they shut out the Blue Devils, winning 45-0.  Miami has won five straight games against inferior ACC teams.  Their defense has inflated numbers against some of the lower level teams in their conference.  When they have played teams that bring more on offense they have given up points.  They gave up 41 to NC State, 34 to Louisville and 42 to Clemson.  On Saturday they will have a problem in the North Carolina Tarheels.  

The Tarheels continue to be underrated this season.  Tar Heels QB Sam Howell is having a great season, he threw for over 500 yards against Wake Forest before dealing with the stout Notre Dame defense that shut them down.  They followed that up by trouncing Western Carolina.  Howell has some big time help in the backfield with the two-headed monster of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.  The running game could be the difference, both teams have great offenses and shaky defenses.  North Carolina controlling the ball will be a big deal.  Miami has continually not shown up against prime offensive teams. 

The Tarheels have the advantage on the sidelines with Mack Brown.  They have the firepower to match Miami and a much more reliable running game to control the ball with a lead.  This will be a high scoring game that UNC will prevail in because of their running game. 

Pick: Tarheels ML, Way over 67

Navy Midshipmen at Army Black Knights

The Army Black Knights rely on the run game. Their triple option game has led them to a 7-2 record with wins over Georgia Southern, UTSA and Mercer. Not exactly top notch competition but still they should have an advantage as they step up against a Navy team that’s achilles heel fits perfectly for the Black Knights. 

The Army rush attack ranks third in the country averaging 296 yards per game. Navy gives up 223 yards per game ranking 196th.  The Black Knights are coming off of a victory over Georgia Southern who plays a similar run first style as both of these teams.  Army will control the line of scrimmage as they have the advantage on both sides of the ball. 

This game is always fun.  Army has the advantage of the home field, it doesn’t matter how many people will be there.  Army covers.  

Pick: Army -7

Overall Season Picks Record: 14-12

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct.14

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Navy Midshipmen -2 at East Carolina Pirates

East Carolina has given up a lot og yards on the ground.  The Pirates rank 126th in the nation against the run.  The bread and butter of the Navy offense is on the ground.  Navy’s ability to run will allow them to control the clock and keep the high powered East Carolina offense off the field. 

Navy has had great success over their conference going 5-0 ATS in their last five games.  East Carolina is just 1-9 straight up in their last ten. Navy’s run game will be too much to handle, they win this one easily due to their ball control.  

Pick: Navy -2

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Both teams are coming off of great offensive showings last week.  Georgia Tech put up 46 points versus the Louisville Cardinals, while Clemson continued their dominance putting up 41 against Virginia and 42 against Miami. These two teams have the ability to run and control the clock but they still move quickly and pick up yards in chunks.  Clemson ranks 10th in yards per play while Georgia Tech surprisingly ranks 28th.  

Clemson is a 27 point favorite in this game and they will likely be emptying the bench in the 4th quarter.  They will be able to coast at the end which will provide the opportunity for the Yellow Jackets to put up some points late in the game.  This one should be a scoring factory.  Lots of points and a blow out.

Pick: Over 64

North Carolina Tarheels -13.5 at Florida State Seminoles

Living in a world of North Carolina being a double digit favorite on the road against Florida State is the world we live in right now.  The Tarheels come into this matchup looking to continue to establish themselves as a serious contender in the ACC.  The Seminoles are just looking to salvage a bit of credibility as they continue to rebuild.  

Florida State replaced James Blackmon at QB with versatile sophomore Jordan Travis.  He showed signs of life from the Seminole offense, outscoring powerhouse Notre Dame in the first quarter until reality took over and Notre Dame blew them out the rest of the way. Travis though will likely not be able to play on Saturday which means they have to go back to Blackmon which has been less than successful. 

Florida State gave up 353 rushing yards to Notre Dame last week and now have to go up against the two headed monster Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.  Combined they have rushed for almost 700 yards and eight touchdowns.  The Tarheels need to not only win this game but do it in convincing fashion.  They will roll over the Seminoles by three touchdowns. 

Picks: North Carolina -13.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 2-1

NCAAF Picks ATS

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Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs +18

Alabama just lost. That means someone is going to have to take a beating.  Mississippi State has had problems all year against talented quarterbacks allowing four straight to compete 71% of their passes.  The Bulldogs don’t have the defensive front to pressure Tua Taguvailoa at all.  If Tua is allowed to sit in the pocket, the secondary will be getting their sprints in before next weeks practice. having to chase down the Crimson Tide receivers as they enter the end zone over and over again. I see Jerry Juedy going for 200 yards on Saturday.

This will be the most focused team in the country this weekend.  The Mississippi Bulldogs are in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Shocking to me that this went from -21 to -18 .

 Pick Alabama -18

Massachusetts Minutemen at Northwestern Wildcats Total: 56.5

Northwestern can’t score. Averaging a shocking 11 points per game this season as well as the least efficient passing game in college football. Northwestern has only put up a total of 38 points over their last five games in total.  Obviously their inefficiencies were  against much stiffer competition, but I still can’t see a possible way that Northwestern puts up over 40 points in this game.  

A took a shot on Vandy/Florida game last week, assuming Florida would dominate but keep Vanderbilt off the board.  The difference here is I just can’t imagine Northwestern being able to put up the kind of points that they need to hit the over. 

Pick: Under 56.5

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears Total 67.5

Jalen Hurts has been better than his predecessors Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.  Seriously, look at the statistics 869 rushing yards and 24 throwing touchdowns.  Hurts has been everything Oklahoma could possibly want.  The problem will not be on the offense Saturday, the Sooners defense has shown an inability to stop competitive teams.  Iowa State  and Kansas State both put up 40 points against the Sooners offense. The Baylor Bears have been solid on offense this year ranking 26thin the nation in scoring, averaging 35.3 point per game this season.  

Baylor has hit the over at three of their four home games in this season and they should be able to move the ball enough put points on the board.  The Bears will put up a fight at home but the Oklahoma offense will be impossible to stop.  This game should be a shootout, this total is way to low.  Give me the over.

Pick: Over 67.5

Other Picks:

Florida -7

Memphis -10.5

West Virginia/Kansas State Under 47.5