NCAAF Pick Nov 20- ACC QB Showdown

November 19, 2021 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh Panthers -14.5, Total 66

The Virginia defense stinks. If you take away their shutout of Duke they haven’t given up less than 28 points on the season, that includes beatdowns from North Carolina, Wake Forest and BYU. In those three games they gave up an average of 54 points per game.They will face a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging 36 ppg (4th nationally) and led by future NFL first rounder Kenny Pickett.

The Cavaliers season has been a roller coaster. Starting the season 2-2 before reeling off four straight wins over Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke and Miami. Their momentum was abruptly stopped when they got run over by BYU. That game came with an extra kick inthe gut as star QB Brennan Armstrong sustained an injury that forced him to miss the Notre Dame game. Without Armstrong the highly vaunted Cavalier offense could not move the ball scoring just 3 points behind backup Jay Woolfok. There are reports that Armstrong should be back for this game, if he is the Virginia offense should be able to move the ball.

The Pittsburgh defense has struggled over the last three weeks, giving up 23,29 and 38 over the last three weeks. Their early season games against Tennesee and Western Michigan showed the vulnerabilities in the defense. With the potential return of Armstrong, the Pittsburgh defense will have to deal with a dual threat QB that can expsoe them. Armstrong is third in college football with 3,557 yards and added 7 rushing touchdowns.

I am playing under the assumption that Armstrong will be on the field. If that is the case I am taking the points with Virginia and I am hammering the over. This game will be a shoutout between two extremely talented QB’s against lackluster defenses.

Pick: Virginia +14.5, over 66

College Football Picks Week 5

September 30, 2021 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes +7.5, Total 51

Colorado enters this game losing their last three while scoring just 20 total points. Colorado’s offense has been unable to provide any production this season. Starting QB Brendon Lewis has only thrown for 338 yards in their four games and their leading receiver has a grand total of 45 yards. It’s safe to say that Colorado would prefer to keep this a slow paced game that will allow them to run the ball.

USC has looked unfocused after the loss of Head Coach Clay Helton, recently giving up 45 points in their most recent loss to Oregon State. The Trojans have a solid QB in Kedon Slovis, but the Colorado defense has been solid against the pass and will make it tough for the USC offense.

These two teams have both had their struggles this season. The Buffaloes lack of offense is troubling, but being at home should help the offense run and allow them to play their slow down pace. USC is too stacked on the offensive end to lose this game but the way both of these teams are playing I would look for this to be a sloppy affair on both ends. USC will pull away late because they actually have options that will help them score. I think USC pulls away late but this game will finish with Colorado scoring under 14. I like the Trojans but I love the under.

Pick: USC -7.5 Under 51

Troy Trojans at South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina is actually 3-1 ATS this season. Most of those games have been them as underdogs. They enter a matchup with the Sun Belt Conference’s Troy Trojans as seven point favorites off the heels of a tough loss to Kentucky last weekend. Troy is also coming off a conference loss to UL Monore. Both teams will look to bounce back in a rather interesting stylistic matchup.

The Trojans bring a suffocating defense to the table. Through four games they have allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing and have sacked the QB 18 times in their four games. Their dominant run defense will be in great shape facing a South Carolina run game that has been one of the worst in college football, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry and 84 yards per game. South Carolina is going to have to throw the ball.

Troy has not played the level of competition that South Carolina has but the Trojans have a solid passing game, averaging 273 ypg. The key for Troy will be continuing to put pressure on the QB and stop the run game. Gamecocks QB Luke Doty has only thrown for 311 yards on the season and should see tons of pressure on him all day. This game will stay close, I think it is more likely a 3 point game rather than a 7 point game. The Gamecocks will win but it will not be easy.

Pick: Troy Trojans +7

Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers

If you look at the records and stat lines this one seems like an easy choice. The Badgers are coming off of a horrid performance down the stretch against Notre Dame over the weekend where QB Graham Mertz threw 4 interceptions. Wisconsin actually led that game 13-10 going into the fourth quarter before a kickoff return by Notre Dame led to a lopsided beatdown.

Wisconsin now has two losses in which they realistically played better than both teams. Penn State and Notre Dame both were outplayed until QB mistakes cost them the outcome. The pressure applied to Mertz was causing all sorts of trouble for the Sophomore. Michigan has not generated much pressure on the QB this season which should limit mistakes.

The Badgers will be at home sporting the best run defense in all of college football while the Michigan Wolverines have become overly reliant on the run this season. They have run the ball on over 70% of their plays this season. Michigan will have to generate offense through the air, something they have not been able to do this season. The lack of offense will play into the hands of the Badgers and allow them to control the ball. When Michigan can’t run they will make mistakes and the Wisconsin defense at home will thrive.

Pick: Wisconsin ML

NCAAF Picks ATS December 5

December 4, 2020 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Buffalo Bulls at Ohio Bobcats

The Buffalo Bulls seem to continue to be underestimated. Last week they seemed to be a popular fade against Kent State at home. They went out and literally ran all over them. RB Jaret Patterson is making a case as the most dominant player in all of college football that is not a QB. Patterson is putting up Madden on easy type numbers, running for 409 yards and 8 touchdowns against Kent State.

Ohio has put up some impressive numbers on offense against the bottom tier of the MAC. The Bobcats dominated Bowling Green and Akron over the last two weeks putting up 94 points over those two games. Buffalo brings a much more powerful offense to the table. The last time Ohio faced an offense that could match them was Central Michigan where they gave up 30 points. They had issues stopping the run against the Chippewas and that opened up the passing game.

Ohio will not be able to stop the Bulls offense. If they stack against the run Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease will pick them apart. The Bulls defense has given up a lot of points but have locked down when necessary. Buffalo will continue their MAC dominance.

Pick: Buffalo Bulls -11

Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears

Oregon will need a bounce back after their loss to rival Oregon State. They get a matchup with the winless California Golden Bears. The Oregon offense has been stellar this season scoring at least 35 points in every game this year. QB Tyler Shough has stepped in for Justin Herbert nicely throwing for 1,158 yards and 11 TD and 2 rushing TD. Along with a solid run game led last week by Travis Dye, Oregon has been moving the ball on the ground with ease. Their run game will get even better with the return of CJ Verdell.

The Ducks have problems stopping the run. Oregon State RB Jemar Jefferson made swiss cheese out of the Oregon defense, going for 226 yards and 2 TD. California found its running game last week versus against Stanford, going to 241 yards. They should be able to continue their running trend against Oregon who has been hemorrhaging big plays all season.

Oregon’s defense has not found its way this season but their offense should be enough o carry the load to a victory. This game will be back and forth early but Oregon will pull away enough to cover in the end. California should still be able to do their part against the lame Duck Oregon defense.

Pick: Oregon Ducks -10, over 58

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs

Vanderbilt is coming off of a 41-0 beating at the hands of Mizzou. They get to face a Georgia Bulldogs team that has been stingy on defense all season. They currently rank 22nd overall in points against, that includes two games with Florida and Alabama. Georgia’s defense will shut them down and they will coast to an early lead.

Once the Bulldogs establish their lead they will just run the ball and kill time. This game looks like it will likely be a shutout. The Georgia offense has found itself with JT Daniels at the helm, they should be able to put up points easily but they will not get to 54. Their pace of play ranks in the high 70s and should move even slower with the second string coming in around the 3rd quarter.

Pick: Under 53.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 12-10

NCAAF Picks ATS- Nov 28

November 26, 2020 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Kent State Golden Flashes at Buffalo Bulls

I am one of the very few that enjoys betting MAC games. They are usually very unpredictable but in reality all gambling is unpredictable. We are going to be greeted with a great MAC matchup this weekend when Kent State goes to Buffalo. The Bulls have been good to me this season putting up 49,42,42 in their first three games this season covering the spread and hitting the over in 2 of 3.

Buffalo is led by a balanced offensive attack thanks to the emergence of Kyle Vantrease at QB. They will obviously lean on the run game led by Jaret Patterson who came off of a record setting 301 yards rushing against Bowling Green. Despite being a team that leans on the run the Bulls still move the ball at a fast rate. They score quickly and that matches up nicely against a poor opposing defense that also moves quickly.

Kent State will be able to match the pace of the Bulls to start the game. They have an offense that is just as intimidating. Putting up 62 and 69 in back to back games against bottom dwellers Bowling Green and Akron. The Golden Flashes have an MAC elite QB in Dustin Crum coming off of 342 yards against Akron. Crum is a solid talent but the offense is not what worries me about Kent State. They will be able to put up points but it will be the fact that they have no answer for the explosiveness that Buffalo will bring. Remember this Kent State defense just gave up 28 points to Akron. This will be a fun game that likely hits the over in the 3rd quarter. In the end Jarret Patterson puts it away late. Rolling with the Bulls and the over.

Pick: Over 67.5, Buffalo Bulls -7

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines

The matchup up of Penn State and Michigan would normally be a potential elimination game for the college football playoff. This year it’s more like something that is an alternative on ESPNU. While the records are not where these two programs would want them to be this is still a game that the fan bases can use for bragging rights in the Big Ten.

The Wolverines made the switch last week at QB, removing Joe Milton for Cade McNamara. The red shirt freshman McNamara immediately made an impact on the Wolverine offense, throwing for 4 TD’s and 260 yards. He led them back against Rutgers, a loss that would be unacceptable to big blue. Michigan will get to face a defense that has given up 180 points over their last five games. Penn State’s issues on defense could open up some fun for the Wolverine’s new QB.

Penn State will have to make up for their defensive issues by putting up points. The main two themes for the Nittany Lions is turnovers and injuries. Penn State loves to turn the ball over, they have a whopping 13 turnovers this season. They will likely play this game without star tight end Pat Freiermuth which will limit the offensive pieces that QB Sean Clifford will trust.

Both of these teams have a lot of questions without many answers. Michigan seemed to find the spark they needed last week, Harbaugh may have found something in McNamara. Penn State will be missing some key pieces on the offensive side and that will be the difference.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -2

LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies

I hate unders about as much as I like gambling. This game with Myles Brennan would scream over to me, but he is still not there and I am perplexed at this being as high as it is. The LSU offense has not been moving the ball at the same rate. Freshman QB TJ Finley is coming off of a nice game against Arkansas, throwing for 271 yards while not throwing a single interception. The key to their victory though was the establishment of the run game. LSU does not have the quick hitting powerful offense that they had last season and at the beginning of this season. The way they win is by controlling the tempo on the ground.

Texas A&M will enter this game looking to make a powerful statement by dominating the defending national champs. In a similar fashion to LSU they want to control the tempo, they do that by playing slowly. They rank 119th in team tempo this season, but lead the conference in time of possession. They are also the top third down team in the conference.

These teams are both going to play a slower style that should be won by the team with the more efficient offense. That is Texas A&M. They win, and it stays under.

Pick: Under 63

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-9

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 3

September 14, 2019September 14, 2019 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5 at Indiana Hoosiers Total 60

The Buckeyes trampled the Cincinnati Bearcats last week 42-0. Justin Fields and company rolled through a Bearcat’s squad that was able to out muscle the UCLA offense the week before. Ohio State’s offense will always make the headlines while their defense got little recognition for pitching a shutout.

In come the Indiana Hoosiers who had a scare versus Ball State (34-24) in week one and followed it up with a dismantling of Eastern Illinois (52-0). It has been a complete team effort with two quarterbacks combining for five touchdowns and to five different receivers. Their rushing attack is led by Stevie Scott’s 109 yards over the first two games.

Ohio State has a 24-0-1 record against Indiana over their last 25 meetings. They have also went 5-1 in their last six road games in September. 17.5 seems like a large number of the road against a Big Ten team but I see Indiana having trouble moving the ball against the stout Ohio State defense.

Pick: Ohio State -17.5, Under 60

USC Trojans -4.5 at BYU Cougars, Total 55.5

USC is entering this game fresh off a beatdown of Stanford, (45-20) putting them in the top 25. Freshman Kedon Slovis came out of nowhere to lead an offensive explosion. USC has a clear advantage in talent all over the field including a very young and talented defense, the Trojans top eight tacklers are all underclassman. While the inexperience hurt them last year, it is paying off early in 2019.

While USC has the talent, BYU is coming off of an inspiring victory of their own against Tennessee. The Cougars faced two power five schools in their first two games, holding both Tennesee and Utah to just 30% conversions on third down. BYU has the ability to deflate the freshman QB who will be facing his first road test. This smells like a trap for USC.

Pick: BYU +4.5

Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights -9.5

Stanford just blew a 17-3 lead versus a freshman quarterback in a division game. They now get to face a UCF team that seems to have a never-ending chip on their shoulder. Stanford is limping on the offensive end and they will need every bit of it against UCF. Stanford QB Davis Mills has only thrown for 318 total yards over their first two games, if they fall down early, they don’t have the offense to overcome.

The Cardinal are giving up 351 yards per game over their first two as well as 7 touchdowns. Those two teams don’t bring the same fire power as the Knights. UCF should win this by two touchdowns.

Pick: UCF -9.5

Oklahoma Sooners -23.5 at UCLA Bruins

UCLA can’t score, even in a Chip Kelly system. Oklahoma scores like they are playing intramural flag football with no refs. Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley seem to have a great repartee in this offense which could lead to bigger things for Hurts in the long run. UCLA has name recognition and that’s about it right now. This game is to easy, not much more analyses needed.

Sooners roll by four touchdowns

Pick: Oklahoma -23.5

Other Picks:

Florida/Kentucky Under 47.5

Colorado State +10

Maryland -7

Championship Week Picks

November 30, 2018 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Pac 12: Utah Utes vs. Washington Huskies -5

The Pac 12 may not be heading to the College Football Playoff but a champion must still be crowned and a participant in the Rose Bowl.

Washington hopes to build off the big victory over rival Washington State in their regular season finale. Washington will have the advantage at QB with Jake Browning, who threw for 2,692 yards and 16 touchdowns during the season. He will lead an offense that will look to jump out early on Utah.

The Huskies defense was able to hold a powerful Washington State offense to 15 points. The Utes don’t possess the offense to compete with Washington.

Washington -5.5

Big 12: Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -7.5

Let me set the scene. Two hated rivals. One looking to not only avenge their only loss but also give themselves a shot at the college football playoff. The other with the chance to beat their rival twice and keep them out of the college football playoff. This game has ESPN 30 for 30 written all over it.

Kyler Murray has been as good as advertised all season. He will keep that going against a stout Texas defense. All season Murray has not been the problem. The Oklahoma defense is going to the be issue in this game. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger was impressive in their first matchup throwing for 314 yards and two touchdowns. Texas is a tough matchup for the Sooners, they are 6-0 ATS versus Oklahoma in their last six. Oklahoma wins but its close.

Texas +7.5

AAC: Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights -3.5

Mackenzie Milton’s injury season ending injury may be to much to overcome for the “National Champs”. Memphis enters this game with thoughts of last years epic showdown in the AAC Championship game, losing by a touchdown in double overtime. The Tigers are out for blood in this one, looking to end the UCF 24-game win streak and any hope for the Knights to make it into the College Football Playoff.

Memphis will run the ball straight down the throats of the UCF defense, managing the clock and dominating the time of possession. Look for Memphis to stack the box and make unproven true freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. make throws down field. Even if Mack Jr. does play well it will still be a lot to overcome. I like Memphis to cover the +5.5 and I may even look to the moneyline.

Memphis +3.5

SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs. Georgia Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have seen Tua in their nightmares for about a year now. They will have a chance to face their fears on Saturday as they go into the SEC Championship.

The betting public is going to look at Georgia’s loss to LSU and compare it to the domination Alabama showed against LSU. I am looking at these two teams differently. I see a Georgia team fighting for their life with a QB Jake Fromm that has no fear of Alabama. Georgia surrenders the 10th-fewest points per game at 17.2 and the 14th-fewest passing yards per game at 175.1.

Alabama is a juggernaut of offense but their defense has shown holes this season. Georgia will come out and take an early lead and ride it until the 4th quarter where Tua makes the big plays necessary to overcome them. This game is going to be a good one and a lot closer then the point spread is going to be.

Georgia -13.5

ACC: Clemson Tigers -26.5 vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

I’m not wasting a lot of time on this one. Pittsburgh is overmatched this one should be a beatdown of epic proportion. Do I hope I am wrong? Yes. But unlikely, Clemson rolls into the College Football Playoff.

Clemson Tigers -26.5

Big 10: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

Ohio State opened some eyes last week in their beatdown of rival Michigan last week. The Buckeyes defense finally showed up in the win against Michigan, but they still have to prove that they can consistently play at a high level. As good as the defense looked it has been Dwayne Haskins that has been playing at a NFL level. He was second only to Gardner Minshew in passing yards this season, had five more touchdown passes than runner-up Will Grier, and torched the FBS’ top defense from Michigan for 396 passing yards, six passing TDs and 62 points in The Game.

Northwestern enters this matchup as over achievers in a matchup that does fit their strengths. The Wildcats are 79th ranked passing defense in the country giving up 238 yards per game on average.

The Buckeyes not only need to win this game but they have to show that they are a dominant force. Urban Meyer won’t take his foot off the gas in this one.

Ohio State -13.5

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 7

October 12, 2018October 12, 2018 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

4-5 record last week was not ideal coming off a winning week, but it wasn’t a complete disaster. This week seems like it has some trap games but I’m looking at a few games that are hard to ignore. Record last two weeks sits at 8-7

Central Florida -5 at Memphis

This game is going to be fun. Two teams that don’t seem to worry to much about defense. This game seems like it will be a trap for most sports bettors. UCF has been leaky to say the least against the run, they now welcome the nations top underrated runningback in Darrell Henderson. Henderson, the nation’s leading rusher with 934 yards and averaging close to 12 yards per carry.

Memphis holds a great home field advantage in this AAC matchup. The world is waiting for UCF to fall and this game is a target for most people. I can see a lot of people taking the upset in this one, but I don’t see it. Memphis will be hyped up and ready to play, look for them to jump out to an early lead and then watch them give it away. UCF will stack the box to slow down Henderson. You slow down Henderson you beat Memphis. Just ask Tulane.

Over the last three games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, the Florida defense has allowed no touchdown passes and came up with four picks.

Central Florida -5

Florida -7 at Vanderbilt

Does anyone remember when Florida dropped its season opener against Kentucky? If you say yes you are a liar. Wins over LSU and Mississippi State have put the Gators back in the top 25, making them a serious threat again in the SEC.

The Gators secondary has been great, over the last three games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, the Florida defense has allowed no touchdown passes and came up with four picks. Vandy has to throw to win. Florida will run the ball and control the clock, while their defense shuts down Vandy.

Florida -7

Rutgers at Maryland -24.5

I am going to keep this one simple. Rutgers was blown out by Illinois and Kansas and this isn’t basketball. Rutgers is not a good team and they are going to Maryland. Maryland takes the lead early and continues to pound it down the Scarlet Knights throat.

This is homecoming and Maryland is way better the Rutgers. I tend to stay away from big spreads but this one is impossible to ignore.

Maryland -24.5

Michigan State at Penn State -13.5

Michigan State has been bad against the pass. Opponents are averaging a ridiculous 305.2 yards per game through the air (122nd overall). Penn State QB Trace McSorley will look to pick apart the Spartans secondary. Michigan State will stop the run as they have done most of the season but the dual threat McSorley will force them to play back and he will use his legs to move the ball.

Penn State is to good offensively for Michigan State to stop them, plus the Nittany Lions are at home. Two touchdowns seems like a lot in a matchup of solid programs but Penn State being at home and James Franklin’s tendency to never take his foot off the gas seems like a car crash for Michigan State.

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