Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh Panthers -14.5, Total 66

The Virginia defense stinks. If you take away their shutout of Duke they haven’t given up less than 28 points on the season, that includes beatdowns from North Carolina, Wake Forest and BYU.  In those three games they gave up an average of 54 points per game.They will face a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging 36 ppg (4th nationally) and led by future NFL first rounder Kenny Pickett.

The Cavaliers season has been a roller coaster.  Starting the season 2-2 before reeling off four straight wins over Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke and Miami. Their momentum was abruptly stopped when they got run over by BYU. That game came with an extra kick inthe gut as star QB Brennan Armstrong sustained an injury that forced him to miss the Notre Dame game.  Without Armstrong the highly vaunted Cavalier offense could not move the ball scoring just 3 points behind backup Jay Woolfok. There are reports that Armstrong should be back for this game, if he is the Virginia offense should be able to move the ball.

The Pittsburgh defense has struggled over the last three weeks, giving up 23,29 and 38 over the last three weeks.  Their early season games against Tennesee and Western Michigan showed the vulnerabilities in the defense.  With the potential return of Armstrong, the Pittsburgh defense will have to deal with a dual threat QB that can expsoe them.  Armstrong is third in college football with 3,557 yards and added 7 rushing touchdowns.  

I am playing under the assumption that Armstrong will be on the field.  If that is the case I am taking the points with Virginia and I am hammering the over. This game will be a shoutout between two extremely talented QB’s against lackluster defenses. 

Pick: Virginia +14.5, over 66