NCAAF Picks ATS- Nov 28

Kent State Golden Flashes at Buffalo Bulls 

I am one of the very few that enjoys betting MAC games.  They are usually very unpredictable but in reality all gambling is unpredictable. We are going to be greeted with a great MAC matchup this weekend when Kent State goes to Buffalo.  The Bulls have been good to me this season putting up 49,42,42 in their first three games this season covering the spread and hitting the over in 2 of 3.  

Buffalo is led by a balanced offensive attack thanks to the emergence of Kyle Vantrease at QB.  They will obviously lean on the run game led by Jaret Patterson who came off of a record setting 301 yards rushing against Bowling Green.  Despite being a team that leans on the run the Bulls still move the ball at a fast rate.  They score quickly and that matches up nicely against a poor opposing defense that also moves quickly. 

Kent State will be able to match the pace of the Bulls to start the game.  They have an offense that is just as intimidating.  Putting up 62 and 69 in back to back games against bottom dwellers Bowling Green and Akron.  The Golden Flashes have an MAC elite QB in Dustin Crum coming off of 342 yards against Akron.  Crum is a solid talent but the offense is not what worries me about Kent State.  They will be able to put up points but it will be the fact that they have no answer for the explosiveness that Buffalo will bring.  Remember this Kent State defense just gave up 28 points to Akron.  This will be a fun game that likely hits the over in the 3rd quarter.  In the end Jarret Patterson puts it away late.  Rolling with the Bulls and the over. 

Pick: Over 67.5, Buffalo Bulls -7

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines

The matchup up of Penn State and Michigan would normally be a potential elimination game for the college football playoff.  This year it’s more like something that is an alternative on ESPNU.  While the records are not where these two programs would want them to be this is still a game that the fan bases can use for bragging rights in the Big Ten. 

The Wolverines made the switch last week at QB, removing Joe Milton for Cade McNamara.  The red shirt freshman McNamara immediately made an impact on the Wolverine offense, throwing for 4 TD’s and 260 yards.  He led them back against Rutgers, a loss that would be unacceptable to big blue.  Michigan will get to face a defense that has given up 180 points over their last five games.  Penn State’s issues on defense could open up some fun for the Wolverine’s new QB.  

Penn State will have to make up for their defensive issues by putting up points.  The main two themes for the Nittany Lions is turnovers and injuries.  Penn State loves to turn the ball over, they have a whopping 13 turnovers this season.  They will likely play this game without star tight end Pat Freiermuth which will limit the offensive pieces that QB Sean Clifford will trust.  

Both of these teams have a lot of questions without many answers.  Michigan seemed to find the spark they needed last week, Harbaugh may have found something in McNamara.  Penn State will be missing some key pieces on the offensive side and that will be the difference.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -2

LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies 

I hate unders about as much as I like gambling. This game with Myles Brennan would scream over to me, but he is still not there and I am perplexed at this being as high as it is.  The LSU offense has not been moving the ball at the same rate. Freshman QB TJ Finley is coming off of a nice game against Arkansas, throwing for 271 yards while not throwing a single interception.  The key to their victory though was the establishment of the run game.  LSU does not have the quick hitting powerful offense that they had last season and at the beginning of this season.  The way they win is by controlling the tempo on the ground.  

Texas A&M will enter this game looking to make a powerful statement by dominating the defending national champs.  In a similar fashion to LSU they want to control the tempo, they do that by playing slowly.  They rank 119th in team tempo this season, but lead the conference in time of possession.  They are also the top third down team in the conference. 

These teams are both going to play a slower style that should be won by the team with the more efficient offense.  That is Texas A&M.  They win, and it stays under.

Pick: Under 63

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-9

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