NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 7

4-5 record last week was not ideal coming off a winning week, but it wasn’t a complete disaster.  This week seems like it has some trap games but I’m looking at a few games that are hard to ignore. Record last two weeks sits at 8-7

Central Florida -5 at Memphis

This game is going to be fun.  Two teams that don’t seem to worry to much about defense.  This game seems like it will be a trap for most sports bettors.  UCF has been leaky to say the least against the run, they now welcome the nations top underrated runningback in Darrell Henderson. Henderson, the nation’s leading rusher with 934 yards and averaging close to 12 yards per carry.

Memphis holds a great home field advantage in this AAC matchup.  The world is waiting for UCF to fall and this game is a target for most people.  I can see a lot of people taking the upset in this one, but I don’t see it.  Memphis will be hyped up and ready to play, look for them to jump out to an early lead and then watch them give it away.  UCF will stack the box to slow down Henderson.  You slow down Henderson you beat Memphis. Just ask Tulane.

Over the last three games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, the Florida defense has allowed no touchdown passes and came up with four picks.

PicksCentral Florida -5

Florida -7 at Vanderbilt

Does anyone remember when Florida dropped its season opener against Kentucky? If you say yes you are a liar.  Wins over LSU and Mississippi State have put the Gators back in the top 25, making them a serious threat again in the SEC.

The Gators secondary has been great, over the last three games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, the Florida defense has allowed no touchdown passes and came up with four picks.  Vandy has to throw to win.  Florida will run the ball and control the clock, while their defense shuts down Vandy.

PicksFlorida -7

Rutgers at Maryland -24.5

I am going to keep this one simple.  Rutgers was blown out by Illinois and Kansas and this isn’t basketball.  Rutgers is not a good team and they are going to Maryland.  Maryland takes the lead early and continues to pound it down the Scarlet Knights throat.

This is homecoming and Maryland is way better the Rutgers.  I tend to stay away from big spreads but this one is impossible to ignore.

PicksMaryland -24.5

Michigan State at Penn State -13.5

Michigan State has been bad against the pass. Opponents are averaging a ridiculous 305.2 yards per game through the air (122nd overall). Penn State QB Trace McSorley will look to pick apart the Spartans secondary.  Michigan State will stop the run as they have done most of the season but the dual threat McSorley will force them to play back and he will use his legs to move the ball.

Penn State is to good offensively for Michigan State to stop them, plus the Nittany Lions are at home.  Two touchdowns seems like a lot in a matchup of solid programs but Penn State being at home and James Franklin’s tendency to never take his foot off the gas seems like a car crash for Michigan State.

PicksPenn State -13.5

Other Picks

Western Michigan -14.5

Nebraska +4.5

Texas -14

Mizzou +28

Miami -6.5

Texas A&M -2.5

Colorado +7.5

 

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