NCAAF Picks ATS Week 10

Liberty Flames at Mississippi Rebels -10  Total: 67.5

The Liberty Flames will get their chance to take on one of the big boys when they face off against the Ole Miss Rebels.  

The Flames defense will have their hands full with future pro and potentially top overall draft pick, QB Matt Coral.  Coral will not have his full allotment of receivers but the Rebels will still be able to produce offense on the ground against a Liberty defense that gave up over 200 yards on the ground to both North Texas and UMass.  Corral actually leads the Rebels in rush yards this year with 519 to go along with ten rushing touchdowns, his ability to scramble will be tough for the Liberty defense to contain.  Henry Parrish Jr and Snoop Conner are both explosive out of the backfield, each average over 5 yards per carry. As a team Ole Miss averages over 6 yards per play on offense ranking them in the top ten in all of football.

Liberty will have a chance because they have a dynamic QB in Malik Willis.  Like Coral, Willis leads his team in rush yards, 684 yards while completing 66% of his passes.  The Liberty offense should have their way with a subpar Ole Miss defense.  The Rebels give up 429 yards of offense per game, most notably they give up a ton on the ground. Their inability to stop the run will force the defense to get worn down, Ole Miss ranks 107th in defense time on field.  This will be a huge factor in Liberty cashing in on offense. 

These two squads will both be fired up for this game and we will see a great matchup of the two most athletic and talented QB’s in all of college football. Both defenses will give up large chunks of yards and both defenses will not be able to keep the other out of the endzone.  The total has been set to low for this one.  I am on the over and lean Liberty with the late cover.

Pick: Over 67.5, Flames +10 

San Jose State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack  -10

Nevada has scored 49, 55, 34 and 51 while going 4-0 at home this season.  They have one of the most potent offenses through the air in all of college football, averaging 384 yards per game.  QB Carson Strong is coming off of a huge game against UNLV, throwing for 417 yards and four touchdowns.  Strong has built up a resume fit for a top NFL prospect, throwing for a total of 2,883 yards and a 24:5 TD to interception ratio.  Nevada in total averages 37.63 points per game, ranking 15th in the nation. This is a team that has built everything around the offensive side of the ball. 

The Nevada defense is not great, but they are able to force teams to play their way by jumping on them early with the high powered pass attack.  San Jose State does not have the offense to keep up with the Wolf Pack.  Nevada will be able to score, if they limit turnovers and control the field position the Spartans will not be able to keep up with the pace. 

San Jose State is just 1-5 ATS on the road in their last six. Nevada is 4-1 ATS in their last five. The Wolf Pack have to jump out early and when they do they will get the crowd into the game and that will lead to an easy victory and cover.

Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack -10

Houston Cougars at USF Bulls +13

The Houston Cougars have won seven games in a row after upsetting the SMU Mustangs 44-37.  Houston QB Clayton Tune has completed 69% of his passes for 1,883 yards and 16 touchdowns.  Houston is 5-3 ATS and an impressive 3-0 ATS on the road this season.  

USF had some issues holding onto the ball last week against Eastern Carolina.  QB Katravis Marsh threw three picks in their 29-14 loss.  The Bulls have lost four of their last five games.  USF has given up 31.88 points per game (105th in nation), their two wins came against Temple and Florida AM.  The defense is pretty bad, the offense isnt much better.  USF QB Timmy McClain has only completed 56% of his passes, they lean on the run game to produce offense.  Houston has been top ten against the run on the season, they are going to force the Bulls to beat them through the air.  They are not built to do that.   

The Cougars are one of the hottest teams in the country. Their offense is playing at an elite level.  Getting a matchup with a terrible USF team is a great way for Clayton Tune and company to show their dominance. This game will never be close.  Number should be way higher. 

Pick: Houston Cougars -13 

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