November 14 NCAAF Picks ATS

Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

I rolled with Minnesota last week against Illinois with a similar line.  The Illinis have serious problems stopping the run and they will have to deal with some similar problems on Saturday versus the improving Rutgers Scarlet Knights. 

Illinois will once again be without their starting QB Brandon Peters.  Backup Coran Taylor looked overmatched against a very subpar Minnesota defense.  He will have to face a Rutgers defense that will bring a lot of pressure on the QB.  Rutgers has had two straight games where they have given up a lot of offense but those two teams were Ohio State and Indiana.  The top two offensive teams in the Big Ten this year. 

Rutgers looked great in week one versus Michigan State.  They followed it up with two losses but were able to put up points in both of those games.  The Rutgers ability to score will be the difference in the matchup.  With Brandon Peters still unable to play the Illini offense will not be able to keep up again.  

Pick: Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -10.5 at Troy Trojans

The undefeated Chanticleers enter this game looking to continue their dominance over the conference.  Their run game behind Torrance Marable has been the key factor in controlling the game and dominating opposing defenses.  Coastal Carolina has been efficient with the ball on offense, turning it over just 1.3 per game.  The run game has been heavy and effective allowing QB Grayson McCall to control the pocket.  He has thrown just 1 interception in 6 games and been sacked just three times total.  

Troy is coming off of a loss to Georgia Southern where they gave up 326 yards on the ground.  Troy’s defensive strength comes from their secondary which is bad news for them as the Coastal Carolina offense is very run oriented.  Marable and McCall both have the ability to move the ball on the ground which will open up plays downfield.  The run game will control the ball and the clock.  

The Chanticleers rank 11th in the nation in time of possession.  They will control the ball and the game.  Coastal Carolina is getting great value, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the road.  Still not enough respect being given for Coastal Carolina,  they wll win by 17. 

Pick: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -10.5

Texas State Bobcats at Georgia Southern Eagles -10

Texas State is 1-8 with a bad defense.  By bad I mean, very bad.  The Bobcats have given up 35 ppg and 475 ypg.  They will have to face off with a Georgia Southern team that is coming in with two straight wins. The Eagles are 3-1 ATS at home this season with covers over South Alabama and Troy.  

Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts doesn’t throw much but he dominates the ground game as the second leading rusher on the Eagles with 474 yards and 3 TD’s.  Georgia Southern have rode the run effectively all season and will have their way with Texas State who is giving up 190 per game on the ground. 

The Georgia Southern defense will be able to get tons of pressure on Texas State QB Tyler Vitt. The Texas State line has given up a staggering 22 sacks on the season.  The pressure will be to much for Vitt and company to overcome and they have to score to keep up with the powerful Eagles offense.  

Pick: Georgia Southern Eagles -10

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-5

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