NCAA Football Week Ten Picks ATS

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Golden Eagles -2.5

Boston College has been undervalued for the last few weeks (Excluding their matchup with Clemson). Florida State is dealing with inner turmoil after firing Willie Taggert mid-week.  Clemson was the only team that was successful in stacking the box to stop AJ Dillon.  Florida State will stack the box on Saturday but that won’t stop the 230-pound Junior running back.

Florida State has been bad on the road 0-3 while not covering the spread in any of those games. The Boston College running game will be able to wear down the Seminole defense which should allow for a dominate victory for the Golden Eagles. 

Boston College will be celebrating Senior day and Florida State has to many questions to trust them to cover this small spread.

Pick: Boston College Golden Eagles -2.5

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans -Total 45.5

This game is simple. Michigan State has hit he under in 13 of their last 16 games.  Illinois has hit the under in 4 of their last 5 games.  

Illinois has a mediocre offense.  They now face a defense that has dominated lesser competition.  Illinois has taken advantage of other teams’ mistakes, scoring 105 points off of turnovers this season.  Michigan State will not turn the ball over, look for them to run the ball and dominate the field.  Without the reliance on turnovers the Illinois offense doesn’t bring enough to the table on Saturday.  Boring game, easy under.

Pick: Under 45.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Tech Hokies +2

Virginia Tech is 1-4 against the spread at home.  That’s right they are terrible at home. They get a matchup with a Wake Forest team that comes in underrated once again this week.

The Virginia Tech secondary is getting loaded, allowing 340 yards or more in three of the last four games. Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman is coming off of one of his most impressive victories of the season, dominating NC State last week.  This is bad matchup for the Hokies as they don’t have the secondary to matchup.  Newman has a repeat dominant performance, one that will assure him the spot of ACC Offensive player of the year. 

I’m taking Wake and not worrying about it. 

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2

Other Picks:

LSU +6

Kentucky -1

Penn State -7

Georgia -16.5

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 7

4-5 record last week was not ideal coming off a winning week, but it wasn’t a complete disaster.  This week seems like it has some trap games but I’m looking at a few games that are hard to ignore. Record last two weeks sits at 8-7

Central Florida -5 at Memphis

This game is going to be fun.  Two teams that don’t seem to worry to much about defense.  This game seems like it will be a trap for most sports bettors.  UCF has been leaky to say the least against the run, they now welcome the nations top underrated runningback in Darrell Henderson. Henderson, the nation’s leading rusher with 934 yards and averaging close to 12 yards per carry.

Memphis holds a great home field advantage in this AAC matchup.  The world is waiting for UCF to fall and this game is a target for most people.  I can see a lot of people taking the upset in this one, but I don’t see it.  Memphis will be hyped up and ready to play, look for them to jump out to an early lead and then watch them give it away.  UCF will stack the box to slow down Henderson.  You slow down Henderson you beat Memphis. Just ask Tulane.

Over the last three games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, the Florida defense has allowed no touchdown passes and came up with four picks.

PicksCentral Florida -5

Florida -7 at Vanderbilt

Does anyone remember when Florida dropped its season opener against Kentucky? If you say yes you are a liar.  Wins over LSU and Mississippi State have put the Gators back in the top 25, making them a serious threat again in the SEC.

The Gators secondary has been great, over the last three games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, the Florida defense has allowed no touchdown passes and came up with four picks.  Vandy has to throw to win.  Florida will run the ball and control the clock, while their defense shuts down Vandy.

PicksFlorida -7

Rutgers at Maryland -24.5

I am going to keep this one simple.  Rutgers was blown out by Illinois and Kansas and this isn’t basketball.  Rutgers is not a good team and they are going to Maryland.  Maryland takes the lead early and continues to pound it down the Scarlet Knights throat.

This is homecoming and Maryland is way better the Rutgers.  I tend to stay away from big spreads but this one is impossible to ignore.

PicksMaryland -24.5

Michigan State at Penn State -13.5

Michigan State has been bad against the pass. Opponents are averaging a ridiculous 305.2 yards per game through the air (122nd overall). Penn State QB Trace McSorley will look to pick apart the Spartans secondary.  Michigan State will stop the run as they have done most of the season but the dual threat McSorley will force them to play back and he will use his legs to move the ball.

Penn State is to good offensively for Michigan State to stop them, plus the Nittany Lions are at home.  Two touchdowns seems like a lot in a matchup of solid programs but Penn State being at home and James Franklin’s tendency to never take his foot off the gas seems like a car crash for Michigan State.

PicksPenn State -13.5

Other Picks

Western Michigan -14.5

Nebraska +4.5

Texas -14

Mizzou +28

Miami -6.5

Texas A&M -2.5

Colorado +7.5