Rutgers Scarlett Knights

November 14 NCAAF Picks ATS

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Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

I rolled with Minnesota last week against Illinois with a similar line.  The Illinis have serious problems stopping the run and they will have to deal with some similar problems on Saturday versus the improving Rutgers Scarlet Knights. 

Illinois will once again be without their starting QB Brandon Peters.  Backup Coran Taylor looked overmatched against a very subpar Minnesota defense.  He will have to face a Rutgers defense that will bring a lot of pressure on the QB.  Rutgers has had two straight games where they have given up a lot of offense but those two teams were Ohio State and Indiana.  The top two offensive teams in the Big Ten this year. 

Rutgers looked great in week one versus Michigan State.  They followed it up with two losses but were able to put up points in both of those games.  The Rutgers ability to score will be the difference in the matchup.  With Brandon Peters still unable to play the Illini offense will not be able to keep up again.  

Pick: Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -10.5 at Troy Trojans

The undefeated Chanticleers enter this game looking to continue their dominance over the conference.  Their run game behind Torrance Marable has been the key factor in controlling the game and dominating opposing defenses.  Coastal Carolina has been efficient with the ball on offense, turning it over just 1.3 per game.  The run game has been heavy and effective allowing QB Grayson McCall to control the pocket.  He has thrown just 1 interception in 6 games and been sacked just three times total.  

Troy is coming off of a loss to Georgia Southern where they gave up 326 yards on the ground.  Troy’s defensive strength comes from their secondary which is bad news for them as the Coastal Carolina offense is very run oriented.  Marable and McCall both have the ability to move the ball on the ground which will open up plays downfield.  The run game will control the ball and the clock.  

The Chanticleers rank 11th in the nation in time of possession.  They will control the ball and the game.  Coastal Carolina is getting great value, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the road.  Still not enough respect being given for Coastal Carolina,  they wll win by 17. 

Pick: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -10.5

Texas State Bobcats at Georgia Southern Eagles -10

Texas State is 1-8 with a bad defense.  By bad I mean, very bad.  The Bobcats have given up 35 ppg and 475 ypg.  They will have to face off with a Georgia Southern team that is coming in with two straight wins. The Eagles are 3-1 ATS at home this season with covers over South Alabama and Troy.  

Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts doesn’t throw much but he dominates the ground game as the second leading rusher on the Eagles with 474 yards and 3 TD’s.  Georgia Southern have rode the run effectively all season and will have their way with Texas State who is giving up 190 per game on the ground. 

The Georgia Southern defense will be able to get tons of pressure on Texas State QB Tyler Vitt. The Texas State line has given up a staggering 22 sacks on the season.  The pressure will be to much for Vitt and company to overcome and they have to score to keep up with the powerful Eagles offense.  

Pick: Georgia Southern Eagles -10

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-5

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 7

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4-5 record last week was not ideal coming off a winning week, but it wasn’t a complete disaster.  This week seems like it has some trap games but I’m looking at a few games that are hard to ignore. Record last two weeks sits at 8-7

Central Florida -5 at Memphis

This game is going to be fun.  Two teams that don’t seem to worry to much about defense.  This game seems like it will be a trap for most sports bettors.  UCF has been leaky to say the least against the run, they now welcome the nations top underrated runningback in Darrell Henderson. Henderson, the nation’s leading rusher with 934 yards and averaging close to 12 yards per carry.

Memphis holds a great home field advantage in this AAC matchup.  The world is waiting for UCF to fall and this game is a target for most people.  I can see a lot of people taking the upset in this one, but I don’t see it.  Memphis will be hyped up and ready to play, look for them to jump out to an early lead and then watch them give it away.  UCF will stack the box to slow down Henderson.  You slow down Henderson you beat Memphis. Just ask Tulane.

Over the last three games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, the Florida defense has allowed no touchdown passes and came up with four picks.

PicksCentral Florida -5

Florida -7 at Vanderbilt

Does anyone remember when Florida dropped its season opener against Kentucky? If you say yes you are a liar.  Wins over LSU and Mississippi State have put the Gators back in the top 25, making them a serious threat again in the SEC.

The Gators secondary has been great, over the last three games against Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, the Florida defense has allowed no touchdown passes and came up with four picks.  Vandy has to throw to win.  Florida will run the ball and control the clock, while their defense shuts down Vandy.

PicksFlorida -7

Rutgers at Maryland -24.5

I am going to keep this one simple.  Rutgers was blown out by Illinois and Kansas and this isn’t basketball.  Rutgers is not a good team and they are going to Maryland.  Maryland takes the lead early and continues to pound it down the Scarlet Knights throat.

This is homecoming and Maryland is way better the Rutgers.  I tend to stay away from big spreads but this one is impossible to ignore.

PicksMaryland -24.5

Michigan State at Penn State -13.5

Michigan State has been bad against the pass. Opponents are averaging a ridiculous 305.2 yards per game through the air (122nd overall). Penn State QB Trace McSorley will look to pick apart the Spartans secondary.  Michigan State will stop the run as they have done most of the season but the dual threat McSorley will force them to play back and he will use his legs to move the ball.

Penn State is to good offensively for Michigan State to stop them, plus the Nittany Lions are at home.  Two touchdowns seems like a lot in a matchup of solid programs but Penn State being at home and James Franklin’s tendency to never take his foot off the gas seems like a car crash for Michigan State.

PicksPenn State -13.5

Other Picks

Western Michigan -14.5

Nebraska +4.5

Texas -14

Mizzou +28

Miami -6.5

Texas A&M -2.5

Colorado +7.5