Big Ten Football

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 9

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Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans +4

Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football. Under second year coach Mel Tucker the Spartans have thrived on both sides of the ball.  The Spartans have Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker in the backfield.  Walker has run for 997 yards and 9 touchdowns on the season. The Spartan offense will lean on the run, but they also have a solid passing game behind QB Payton Thorne.  Thorne has thrown for fifteen touchdowns and just four interceptions.  The Michigan front is tough but they will be forced to stack the box to stop the run, which will allow for man coverage for Thorne to pick apart.  Thorne has two different receivers, Jayden Reed and Josh Nailor, both have 27 catches and both are going to be big problems for the Michigan defense.

Michigan has the exact same strategy on offense.  They will lean on the run in order to set up the pass. The Wolverines have two runners, Blake Corum and Hassan Hankins both have run for over 600 yards on the season. The Michigan State defense has been very good against the run.  The Spartans are holding opposing Big Ten teams to just 3.3 yards per carry.  If Michigan cannot establish the run they will have to rely on Cade McNamara for the first time this season.  McNamara is averaging just 21 throws per game and has only thrown two balls over 40 yards. 

Both teams average 200 yards on the ground, both average 30+ points per game.  Both have solid defenses, giving up just 18 ppg (Michigan) and 14 ppg (Michigan State).  The difference will be the QB play. Payton Thorne has the ability to take over the game, Cade McNamara has not shown that same ability.  Jim Harbaugh has not won the big game in his career at Michigan, this one is the biggest game of 2021.  The Spartans are not the team of 2020, their explosive offense will set them apart on Saturday, as well as their advantage at home.  I love the Spartans at +4, but it’s worth it to go after the ML.

Pick: Michigan State Spartans ML +160 or +4 for safety net

Arkansas State Red Wolves at South Alabama Jaguars -9

South Alabama QB Jake Bently has led the Jaguar offense all year.  Bently has thrown for 1,825 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season.  The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS at home this season.  The offense will be able to put up points against a putrid defense, but their key advantage will be on the defensive side of the ball. South Alabama is top 5 in the country against the pass.  Bently and company will be able to put up points at will and their defense matches up perfectly with the Red Wolves biggest strength.

Arkansas State has lost 6 in a row, including all three of their road contests.  The Red Wolves have been a powerhouse through the air this season (348 yards per game).  Most of their air yards have come due to the inability to stop the opposing offense.  The Arkansas State defense ranks dead last in the country against the run and dead last in rush offense. The Red Wolves inability will make it tough for QB James Blackmon to run the offense that they want.  

South Alabama is coming off of a bad loss to UL Monroe, they will be motivated in front of their home crowd to make a statement.  The defense will be the difference in a high scoring affair.  The Jaguars will take a few punches but they ultimately will take the lead and run with it. 

Pick: South Alabama Jaguars -9

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs 

Kentucky is coming off of a miracle cover over powerhouse Georgia two weeks ago. They got a week off and now will go on the road to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  The Wildcats are 2-0 ATS on the road, both against SEC opponents.  In contrast the Bulldogs are just 1-3 ATS at home.  

The Bulldogs are good offensively.  QB Will Rogers has completed 73% of his passes, helping his team to average 423 yards of offense per game (50th in nation).  Rogers has had his struggles during the season, throwing seven interceptions and getting sacked 20 times.  Mississippi State will have to try and limit the Kentucky pass rush. The Wildcats are very good at applying pressure at 6.78% sack percentage while only giving up 17 ppg on the season. 

Kentucky will not have a walk in the park on offense.  The Bulldogs shut down the run, allowing just 98 yards per game. The matchup of the Miss State defense against star RB Chris Rodriguez should make for an interesting matchup.  Rodriguez has rushed for 775 yards, adding 5 touchdowns as the cornerstone of the Kentucky offense.  Kentucky QB Will Levis will give him some room to run, his dink and dunk game should allow them to move the ball downfield and wear down the defense.  

This game is going to be a gritty matchup between two teams that rely a lot on their defense.  The Bulldogs have had a problem protecting the QB and that will be exasporated on Saturday.  Kentucky will get pressure on Will Rogers which will lead to turnovers and Wildcat touchdowns.  

Pick: Kentucky ML -105

NCAAF Picks Week 8

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North Carolina State Wolfpack at Miami Hurricanes +3

The season has not been going well for the Miami Hurricanes.  Devastating losses to UVA and UNC over the last two weeks have them currently sitting at 2-4 and little to know hope of doing anything of note this season.  Miami lost starting QB D’eriq King for the season and added starting RB Cameron Harris to the DL last week. The depleted offense has QB Tyler Van Dyke at the helm.  He has thrown for just 52% with 5 TDs and 3 interceptions. The Hurricanes are running into a red hot defense coming off a beatdown on the road against Boston College. NC State has given up just 14.33 ppg, and just 315 yards per game on the season.  

The NC State offense is led by QB Devin Leary’s 73% completion percentage, 15 TD to just 2 interceptions. The Wolfpack are just as effective on the ground as well as in the air. The two headed monsters of RB’s Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. have combined for almost 900 yards and four touchdowns.  Both rank in the top ten in the ACC for total yardage.  

NC State is 6-2 ATS in their last eight, they are looking to take control of the ACC and to do that, they have to take down the Hurricanes. They have a strong defense going against an undermanned Miami offense.  The Wolfpack will dominate, similarly to what they did against Boston College.   

Pick: NC State -3

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions -23

Penn State’s dream season hit a snag last two weeks ago against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They got a bye last week, allowing them to regroup and get ready for a matchup with Big Ten bottom dwelling Illinois Fighting Illini.  

The Penn State defense has been stout, holding opposing offenses to just 13.8 ppg. They hold down opposing offenses by limiting big plays.  They are top 5 in yards per play this season.  The Nittany Lions held Wisconsin to 10, Auburn to 20, Indiana to 0 and Iowa to just 23. The defense will be able to dominate, the Illinois offense that is averaging just 17 ppg.  

On offense Penn State will have a healthy Sean Clifford, their offense disappeared against Iowa once Clifford left the game. The passing game is ranked 23rd in the nation averaging 268 yards through the air.  Jahan Dotson has been a great target for the Nittany Lions, he has averaged 82.3 yards per game.  Penn State will have a lot of opportunities for big plays while they lean on the run game to establish the offense.  The Nittany Lions have two strong RB options with Keyvone Lee and Noah Cain.  

Illinois scored a combined 9 points in their last two Big Ten games and now face the best defense in the conference. The Fighting Illini will not be able to get anything going on offense, their defense should be able to keep them in it for a little while, eventually they will wear down and Penn State will dominate.  

Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions -23

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels Total: 76

The Rebels are down their two top receivers Johnathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders.  The absence of his main targets forced Ole Miss QB Matt Correal to utilize his legs more which led to more hits.  Correal is questionable for this game, if he is able to go he will likely not be on the same level as he usually is. If Correal is not at his full abilities the Rebels offense will rely on their SEC #1 ranked run game. But that may play right into the hands of their opponent. 

The LSU run game made an appearance last week in their upset over the Florida Gators. The Tigers should be able to move the ball on the ground against a 111th ranked Rebels run defense.  Tyrion Davis-Price is coming off of a dominant 287 yard performance.  If Davis-Price can continue to be effective on the ground, LSU will be able to manage the clock and turn this game into a battle of the trenches. 

Both teams have been miserable on defense. Still, ther combined totals against are under 75 and each teams combined total ppg on offense is under 75.  Ole Miss will have to run the ball more due to the injury to Correal, while LSU will want to run the ball to keep the opposing offense off the field.  If this game is turned into a battle of the rushing offenses, not only do I see an under hitting but a potential ML wager on LSU may be in play. 

Pick: Under 76

NCAAF Picks ATS- Nov 28

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Kent State Golden Flashes at Buffalo Bulls 

I am one of the very few that enjoys betting MAC games.  They are usually very unpredictable but in reality all gambling is unpredictable. We are going to be greeted with a great MAC matchup this weekend when Kent State goes to Buffalo.  The Bulls have been good to me this season putting up 49,42,42 in their first three games this season covering the spread and hitting the over in 2 of 3.  

Buffalo is led by a balanced offensive attack thanks to the emergence of Kyle Vantrease at QB.  They will obviously lean on the run game led by Jaret Patterson who came off of a record setting 301 yards rushing against Bowling Green.  Despite being a team that leans on the run the Bulls still move the ball at a fast rate.  They score quickly and that matches up nicely against a poor opposing defense that also moves quickly. 

Kent State will be able to match the pace of the Bulls to start the game.  They have an offense that is just as intimidating.  Putting up 62 and 69 in back to back games against bottom dwellers Bowling Green and Akron.  The Golden Flashes have an MAC elite QB in Dustin Crum coming off of 342 yards against Akron.  Crum is a solid talent but the offense is not what worries me about Kent State.  They will be able to put up points but it will be the fact that they have no answer for the explosiveness that Buffalo will bring.  Remember this Kent State defense just gave up 28 points to Akron.  This will be a fun game that likely hits the over in the 3rd quarter.  In the end Jarret Patterson puts it away late.  Rolling with the Bulls and the over. 

Pick: Over 67.5, Buffalo Bulls -7

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines

The matchup up of Penn State and Michigan would normally be a potential elimination game for the college football playoff.  This year it’s more like something that is an alternative on ESPNU.  While the records are not where these two programs would want them to be this is still a game that the fan bases can use for bragging rights in the Big Ten. 

The Wolverines made the switch last week at QB, removing Joe Milton for Cade McNamara.  The red shirt freshman McNamara immediately made an impact on the Wolverine offense, throwing for 4 TD’s and 260 yards.  He led them back against Rutgers, a loss that would be unacceptable to big blue.  Michigan will get to face a defense that has given up 180 points over their last five games.  Penn State’s issues on defense could open up some fun for the Wolverine’s new QB.  

Penn State will have to make up for their defensive issues by putting up points.  The main two themes for the Nittany Lions is turnovers and injuries.  Penn State loves to turn the ball over, they have a whopping 13 turnovers this season.  They will likely play this game without star tight end Pat Freiermuth which will limit the offensive pieces that QB Sean Clifford will trust.  

Both of these teams have a lot of questions without many answers.  Michigan seemed to find the spark they needed last week, Harbaugh may have found something in McNamara.  Penn State will be missing some key pieces on the offensive side and that will be the difference.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -2

LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies 

I hate unders about as much as I like gambling. This game with Myles Brennan would scream over to me, but he is still not there and I am perplexed at this being as high as it is.  The LSU offense has not been moving the ball at the same rate. Freshman QB TJ Finley is coming off of a nice game against Arkansas, throwing for 271 yards while not throwing a single interception.  The key to their victory though was the establishment of the run game.  LSU does not have the quick hitting powerful offense that they had last season and at the beginning of this season.  The way they win is by controlling the tempo on the ground.  

Texas A&M will enter this game looking to make a powerful statement by dominating the defending national champs.  In a similar fashion to LSU they want to control the tempo, they do that by playing slowly.  They rank 119th in team tempo this season, but lead the conference in time of possession.  They are also the top third down team in the conference. 

These teams are both going to play a slower style that should be won by the team with the more efficient offense.  That is Texas A&M.  They win, and it stays under.

Pick: Under 63

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-9

November 14 NCAAF Picks ATS

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Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

I rolled with Minnesota last week against Illinois with a similar line.  The Illinis have serious problems stopping the run and they will have to deal with some similar problems on Saturday versus the improving Rutgers Scarlet Knights. 

Illinois will once again be without their starting QB Brandon Peters.  Backup Coran Taylor looked overmatched against a very subpar Minnesota defense.  He will have to face a Rutgers defense that will bring a lot of pressure on the QB.  Rutgers has had two straight games where they have given up a lot of offense but those two teams were Ohio State and Indiana.  The top two offensive teams in the Big Ten this year. 

Rutgers looked great in week one versus Michigan State.  They followed it up with two losses but were able to put up points in both of those games.  The Rutgers ability to score will be the difference in the matchup.  With Brandon Peters still unable to play the Illini offense will not be able to keep up again.  

Pick: Rutgers Scarlet Knights -6.5

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -10.5 at Troy Trojans

The undefeated Chanticleers enter this game looking to continue their dominance over the conference.  Their run game behind Torrance Marable has been the key factor in controlling the game and dominating opposing defenses.  Coastal Carolina has been efficient with the ball on offense, turning it over just 1.3 per game.  The run game has been heavy and effective allowing QB Grayson McCall to control the pocket.  He has thrown just 1 interception in 6 games and been sacked just three times total.  

Troy is coming off of a loss to Georgia Southern where they gave up 326 yards on the ground.  Troy’s defensive strength comes from their secondary which is bad news for them as the Coastal Carolina offense is very run oriented.  Marable and McCall both have the ability to move the ball on the ground which will open up plays downfield.  The run game will control the ball and the clock.  

The Chanticleers rank 11th in the nation in time of possession.  They will control the ball and the game.  Coastal Carolina is getting great value, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the road.  Still not enough respect being given for Coastal Carolina,  they wll win by 17. 

Pick: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -10.5

Texas State Bobcats at Georgia Southern Eagles -10

Texas State is 1-8 with a bad defense.  By bad I mean, very bad.  The Bobcats have given up 35 ppg and 475 ypg.  They will have to face off with a Georgia Southern team that is coming in with two straight wins. The Eagles are 3-1 ATS at home this season with covers over South Alabama and Troy.  

Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts doesn’t throw much but he dominates the ground game as the second leading rusher on the Eagles with 474 yards and 3 TD’s.  Georgia Southern have rode the run effectively all season and will have their way with Texas State who is giving up 190 per game on the ground. 

The Georgia Southern defense will be able to get tons of pressure on Texas State QB Tyler Vitt. The Texas State line has given up a staggering 22 sacks on the season.  The pressure will be to much for Vitt and company to overcome and they have to score to keep up with the powerful Eagles offense.  

Pick: Georgia Southern Eagles -10

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-5