Good Job Astros

Lost in the madness of the NCAA tournament this weekend was the front office of the Houston Astros extending American League MVP, Jose Altuve to an astounding 7-year 163.5M deal.

Altuve, 27, has now been cemented as the cornerstone of a franchise that took home it’s first ever world series title in 2017.  The Astros continue to make moves that will make them a powerhouse in the American League for the next 5 years. Fans of Houston were subjected to abysmal baseball, during a during a 3 year stretch 2011-2013 the Astros would lose over 100 games before they were able to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

As the team began to develop so did the 5 foot star in the making.  Altuve is more then just the numbers, he is the leader of a team with a young core and a bright future.  His extension will lock up not only a great player but a leader of the organization. This contract could very well change the way that baseball evaluates its talent. Veteran DH of the Detroit Tigers Victor Martinez, teammate of Altuve onVenezuelan national team,  commented on the signing. “I hope teams learn a lesson about evaluating players, It’s not how tall you are. It’s your talent. It’s your heart.”

Altuve’s statistics got him the money, his leadership got him the years.  This is a move for the future, it is a move that shows Houston’s commitment to winning.  The Astros head into 2018 to defending their title, their front office has already won.

NL Central Outfield Rankings

The NL Central has been one of the most continuously active divisions in an offseason that has been mostly dull.  As we begin spring training we have to decide which teams stand out from the rest in each category.  We are going to begin with the outfield, additions and subtractions have set a few teams apart from the others.  Let’s get to ranking!

5. Cincinnati Reds, 2017 combined WAR: 5

Projected Starters: Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Billy Hamilton

Fourth Outfielder: Jesse Winker

The Cincinnati Reds currently sit last in our rankings due mainly to the fact that they are unsure of the future os speedster Billy Hamilton. Jesse Winker proved that he is ready for the big leagues but with Hamilton still in the fold manager Bryan Price may be forced into a platoon situation.

Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler combined for 61 homeruns in 2017, both however showed that they can be boom or bust a large percentage of the time.  Schebler and Duvall both hit just above .230BA and hovered around .301 OBP.  While they have been tasked with driving in runs the lack of production from speedster Billy Hamilton left them with few options to drive in.

The Reds have a solid future to grow on in the outfield but right now it is full of unproven potential.  Great American Ballpark will help them provide the power but outside of that and Duvall/ Hamilton’s solid defense, there is much to like about this outfield core.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates, 2017 Combined WAR: 3.3

Projected Starters: Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier

Fourth Outfielder: Jordan Luplow or Daniel Nava?

It wasn’t long ago that the Pittsburgh Pirates sat on top of this list.  Andrew McCutchen claimed that they the best young outfield in the game.  Now he sits in a San Francisco dugout wondering what could have been.

The Pirates still have two potentially dynamic players in Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, but with Polanco’s injury history and lack of true star production you have to question whether his ability will ever match expectations.  Polanco still has never hit above .258 in three full major league seasons.   Marte entered 2017 as the potential breakout star of baseball senior circuit, a gold glover with the ability to one day be a 30/30 man in the majors with a strong .350OBP.  Sadly a early season steroid suspension put a hole in a season that looked to have big time promise.  Marte has now taken on the role of team leader and star as he shifts to centerfield for 2018, can he pick up for the lose of McCutchen not only on the field but also the locker room?

The Pirates also have to determine whether Adam Frazier, infielder by trade, is the answer in left field.  Frazier provides stability but pretty much no power for a team that will be looking to replace 28HR from its lineup.  The Pirates just added veteran Daniel Nava to it’s roster to compete for the position but, let’s be honest, Daniel Nava is what he is and that is not a consistent MLB starter.

Rookie Austin Meadows is still developing, but as of right now, the Pirates have to options in the outfield and the rest is a coin flip.  Marte and Polanco’s ability though allows them to stay ahead of the Reds for last place.

 

3. Chicago Cubs, 2017 Combined WAR: 5.4

Projected Starters: Jason Heyward, Albert Amora, Kyle Schwarber

Fourth Outfielder: Ian Happ

The Chicago Cubs have a lot of potential players that could spend a lot of time patrolling the outfield in the friendly confines.  But I see Ben Zobrist as more of an infield option at second base.  That leaves us with a few question marks with serious potential.

While I am sure the Cubs regret the amount of money spent on Jason Heward, they will never admit it because you still get the best defensive outfielder in baseball.  While Heyward has been great defensively his offensive output has been subpar over the last two seasons and there is no reason to think it will improve.

Luckily for the Cubbies Albert Amora showed flashes of brilliance in 2017, defensively he has the talent to play center and he bat has begun to show signs of life, his .338OBP and .298BA lead all cubs outfielders in 2017, with another year of experience under his belt he can only improve.

Kyle Schwarber will be the greatest mystery of the bunch.  While Schwarber supplies the power that fans and GM’s drool over, he has not developed as a complete hitter.  Being sent down last season seemed to do him some good but the Cubs need an improvement from the .211BA.  Schwarber’s limitations defensively will force Joe Maddon to sit him in big situations of games as well as limit his overall usage.  Reports say that Schwarber has come into spring training in great shape, but does that really magically turn him into a viable outfielder?

Ian Happ is good, if the Cubs can find AB’s for him he will hit 30 homers, but who do they sit to make room?

2. Milwaukee Brewers, 2017 Combined WAR: 13.7

Projected Starters: Chritian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun

Fourth Outfielder: Domingo Santana

It’s hard to argue with the depth of the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers.  The additions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain vaulted them right into the stratosphere of athletic/dynamic outfields.Yelich and Cain immediately provide upgrades in the lineup as well as defensively.  The Biggest question about this new look outfield is who is what Ryan Braun is going to show up in 2018

Braun featured career lows in every statistical category in 2017 outside of his injury riddled 2013 season.  Braun will have less pressure as the big names come into the fold but for the Brewers to overcome the arch rival Cubs they will need some form of the former MVP.

Another question that comes is what to do with Domingo Santana. Santana smashed 30 dingers for the Brew Crew in 2017 and now he has to relegated to a bench role.  Finding holes in the Brewers outfield depth was tough but, Cain has only played two full seasons in the majors without any injury issues and Braun seems to be a shell of his former self.  They are dynamic and talented but there are a lot of questions that still have no answers.

1. St. Louis Cardinals, 2017 Combined WAR: 14.3

Projected Starters: Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna

Fourth Outfielder: Jose Martinez

The Cardinals entered the 2017 offseason with a goal to add a power bat.  They were successful and now Marcell Ozuna will play in the most talented outfield in the NL Central.

The biggest question about the Cardinals outfield is whether or not Tommy Pham’s monster season was a fluke or not.  The fact is that Tommy Pham has his on every level in professional baseball.  If not for his injury history then he would have been in the majors a long time ago.

Now you may ask, What if he does get hurt again?  The Cardinals feature a stable of young talented outfielders ready to step in on a moments notice.  Guys like Jose Martinez and Harrison Bader have come to the majors and made an impact.

The pickup of Ozuna gave the Cardinals the flexibility in the lineup and defensively, what gets lost in Ozuna’s gaudy power numbers is his defensive ability.  The pickup of Ozuna allowed the Cardinals to move Pham to center and Fowler to right.  Each of these players made MLB’s top 10 outfielders by position and they are set to dominate the league.  The Cardinals have their flaws but the outfield is not one of them.

 

 

San Francisco (Giant)s Mistakes?

The San Francisco Giants decided to lit a flame to reignite the major league baseball hot stove by acquiring former National League MVP Andrew McCutchen.  McCutchen joins Evan Longoria in a new look middle of the Giants lineup.  The Giants have thrown down the gauntlet in potentially the most stacked division the Major League Baseball’s senior circuit.  While the moves are attention grabbing, does it really put the giants in a place to contend?

McCutchen joins a lineup that has found it a struggle to find offense in the outfield.  With the addition of the 5 time all-star the Giants will be able to move injury machine Hunter Pence into left field solving a problem that has plagued the team for years.  The new problem moves to center field as normal Denard Span was part of the Longoria deal. Early projections show Gorkys Hernandez as the potential starting center fielder, the Giants could shock us all by potentially moving defensive gem Brandon Belt to the outfield and play Buster Posey over at first.  Posey’s move to first is inevitable due to his growing concussions issues as well as the overall wear and tear of playing the position. A move of Belt to the outfield would shift the aging McCutchen to one of the biggest and funkiest center fields in Major League Baseball.

While the outfield has questions the Giants infield has could rival any team defensively. The acquisition of Even Longoria made a strength even stronger, the 2017 Gold Glover joins fellow 2017 Gold Glover Brandon Crawford and defensive standout Joe Panik.  While the move for Longoria shocked most in the baseball world, it was justified when the Giants made the second move to pick up McCutchen.  The Giants are telling their fanbase that they are all in for the 2018 season…at least they have forced themselves all in.

The Giants traded away their most promising prospect Christian Arroyo in order to pick up Longoria. While Longoria is still a viable player moving your top infield prospect to get him was questions by many baseball writers. Giants general manager Bobby Evans and executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean have addressed this, but to summarize, the Giants wanted to improve upon the production they received from third base last season. San Francisco’s third basemen finished last in the Majors in batting average (.216), OPS (.568), home runs (nine) and RBIs (51) in 2017. Despite Longoria’s dip in production in ’17, Giants management believes he has enough left to provide respectable offense for at least a couple of years.  A couple of years may be all the Giants have left as their current farm system ranks in the bottom five and their is no one on the way.  A team that has a lot of older players seems to not have a plan if those players breakdown.

The Giants are going to go into the 2018 season with a lot to be excited about.  Their pitching staff will have a full year of Madison Bumgarner back , assuming he stays off the dirt bike.  They have Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardjia, Mark Melancon, Sam Dyson, so many established major league players. The Giants just seemed to have forgotten that the Dodgers, D-Backs and Rockies are younger and better.  The Giants won’t lose 98 games in 2018 but this team has not improved themselves enough to beat the teams in their own division.  The will battle for a wild card spot but most likely be looking to unload some vets at the trade deadline.  They showed the fanbase they are trying, but I think a rebuild would have made more sense.

But it is an even year.

 

Who Can Close? Cards Free Agent Options

The St. Louis Cardinals entered the offseason with a few glaring holes.  The need that caught most fans attention is the lack of the middle of the order bat.  Cardinals management took an obsessive approach in filling that hole, eventually landing slugger Marcel Ozuna from the Marlins.  Cardinals fans have turned their complaints to a new place, the bullpen, more prominently the closer position.  Relievers have become a commodity in the MLB garnering contracts that just a few years ago would have been laughable.  If we assume that the Cardinals don’t use one of their current relievers as a closer what options are left on the open market?….and what will it cost?

With the biggest free agent reliever on the market signing 3year/52million dollar contract with the Colorado Rockies, many believe the market is set.  What direction should the Cardinals go in?  Let’s rank the options.

3. Tyler Clippard, 32, Career Saves 61

Tyler Clippard is coming off of arguably his worst season in the major leagues, most probably don’t even realize he was actually on the World Series Champion Astros roster at the close of the MLB season.

Clippard is not your prototypical closer, he doesn’t throw 100 every pitch he relies on deception, movement and a plus changeup in order to get outs.  Clippard has performed well as a closer, 2012 with the Nationals Clippard posted 32 saves for a team that walked into the playoffs. While Clippard has not been able to repeat those numbers he does bring an intriguing element to his game, he is a fly ball pitchers.  50% of Clippard outs are recorded through the air.  The Cardinals have one of the most athletic outfields in baseball entering the 2018 season.  With the addition of gold glover Marcell Ozuna in the outfield and the further development of Tommy Pham to center field Clippard can have more confidence in pounding the strike zone.  The spacious Busch Stadium outfield can also give Clippard the confidence to pound the strike zone.

While Clippard isn’t the sexy pick for closer, his veteran presence can be a nice stop gap to help young relievers like John Brebbia and Tyler Lyons develop more confidence to one day take the job.

 

2. Greg Holland, 32, Career Save 189

Greg Holland is going to be a closer somewhere in 2018. Holland established himself as a true star pitching in the confines of Coors Field finishing the season with an astounding 41 saves.

Holland’s negatives are the fact their is a health risk.  Missing the entire 2016 season and parts of the 2017 really hurt Holland’s value leading into 2018 free agency.  His experience and ability are unquestionable, but the injury risk and high cost that Holland will command may turn off the Cardinals.  Their is also the lingering question of why Holland’s former team would decide to shell out the money to Wade Davis when they have the connection to Holland.

Statistics are always in Hollands favor but the fact that he sits atop of the current available reliever pull could demand multiple years and a lot of money.  While the Cardinals have stated that money is not a problem a projected $15million a year for a guy with a recent injury history could be to much of a gamble for an organization that tends to be cautious in these situations.

1. Addison Reed, 28, Career Saves 125

Addison Reed entered the 2018 free agent market as an after thought as his Reed role changed mid-way through the season after being dealt to the Boston Red Sox.  Before he was Craig Kimbrel’s setup man, Addison Reed was recording saves for a pretty pathetic Mets team. One of the best things about Reed is his low walk rate. His career walk rate is 2.3 per nine innings, and over the last two years it’s even better, 1.6 per nine innings, to go along with a 9.8 per nine strikeout rate. His WHIP of 0.996 over the last two seasons (total of 153⅔ innings over 157 appearances) is outstanding.

Reed will enter 2018 in his age 28 season with very little recent injury history.  A pitcher in his prime playing for a contending team is the right mixture to equal success for the Cardinals and Addison Reed.  The Cardinals can get a quality reliever that is ready to close now for $8million per season. Picking up Reed could be the move that solidifies the Redbirds bullpen for years to come at an extremely affordable rate.

 

Honorable Mention:

Huston Street: Career Saves 304

Too old and to Injury prone.  Worth a look if its cheap.