NCAA Football Week Two Picks ATS

Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes -16.5, Total: 55.5

I am one of the many that stopped watching the Buckeyes opening contest against Florida Atlantic after they jumped out to a 28-0 first quarter lead.  The cover seemed like a forgone conclusion, unfortunately for Ohio State backers the Buckeyes were not able to hold the cover putting a stop to the offense

Justin Fields looked like the real deal accounting for five touchdowns in his first start, he will have a stiffer challenge coming versus a Cincinnati frontline that made life miserable for UCLA.  Former Ohio State player, now Head Coach of Cincinnati Luke Fickell will have a veteran team that will not be intimidated by the name on the jersey.  Fickell has a tough defense that will be able to stop the run early and make a game of it.  

16.5 seems like the right gap due to the immense level of talent on Ohio State but the Bearcats bring a stout defense as well as a sharp veteran passer in Desmond Ridder.  This game will be a dog fight early, but Ohio States overall talent will win out.  I like Cincinnati to cover by my favorite play is the under. 

 Under 55.5, Cincinnati +16.5

Syracuse Orange at Maryland Terrapins -2, Total: 57.5

Syracuse’s offense seemed out of sync against the lowly Liberty Flames.  Putting up just 24 points against the Flames defense.  Syracuse’s new starting quarterback Tommy DeVito struggle on the road. He didn’t hit half of his passes, couldn’t do much down the field, and ended up throwing two picks. Syracuse will have a tough challenge against the stout Maryland defensive front. Maryland is coming off of domination of Howard winning 79-0 in week one while racking up eight sacks. 

Maryland will be able to keep the Syracuse defensive front at bay with their rushing attack.  The Terps were dominate on the ground with 317 rushing yards.  This game will be a struggle to find out which offense can find its flow first.  With Maryland at home and the early struggles of DeVito Syracuse can be in for a tough game. 

Pick: Maryland -2, Under 57.5

West Virginia Mountaineers at Missouri Tigers, -14, Total: 62.5

The Missouri Tigers shockingly took a loss as 17-point favorites against Wyoming.  Mizzou couldn’t hold onto the ball in their defeat with three fumbles, losing two of them.  

The Tigers defense was also a huge problem giving up over 297 yards on the ground. 

The Tigers were still solid on offense with Kelly Bryant throwing for over 400 yards and two touchdowns. Mizzou was the dark horse to win the SEC East but now will have to go back to the drawing board.  A matchup with the rebuilding West Virginia Moutaineers at home should be just what the doctor ordered.  West Virginia is coming off of a narrow victory versus respectable FCS James Madison.  Mizzou should be able to run their offense efficiently against the Mountaineers defense.  Look for the Tigers to jump out to a lead early and then step on the neck of their Big 12 foe.  

Pick: Mizzou -14, Over 62.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers -4 at Colorado Buffaloes, Total: 64.5

This line has made an interesting move.  Opening at -7 in favor of the Cornhuskers has moved all the way down to -4.  This is most likely due to the subpar performance from Nebraska in week one versus South Alabama.  There is a reason that teams schedule a lower level team early in the season, they can work out the kinks in the offense.  The Nebraska defense took a nice step forward as the game went on causing five turnovers and sacking the QB four times.  

Colorado was impressive against the powerful offense of Colorado State in week one, with a 21-point victory. First year head coach Mel Tucker was quick to point out the flaws from the Colorado defense though as they gave up 505 total yards along with 27 first downs.  The Buff’s will have a step up in competition versus Nebraska.  Scott Frost’s offense will find a way to turn it around in this matchup.  With the line continuing to fall you can get the Cornhuskers at a value.  

Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers -4, WAY OVER

NCAA Picks ATS 1.25.19

Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins -9

Illinois can force a lot of turnovers.  Problem is their defense has no other real positives, opposing teams that can hold onto the ball shoot 47% from the field and 36% from behind the arc. They are going to look to push the pace on Saturday to stop the strength of the Maryland frontcourt

Maryland has the size downlow with NBA prospect Bruno Fernando, Illinois has no one on their roster that will be able to handle him. The Illini do have two 7’0 centers on the fringes of their rotation, but in the top seven, Giorgi Bezhanishvili is the only one who could be considered a “big man”, he will be no match for the bruising Fernando on Saturday. As long as point guard Anthony Cowan can continue his solid big ten play the Terrapins should roll to victory at home tomorrow.

The numbers back up Maryland as they are 5-0 ATS last five after a loss. Grab this game before the number goes up for Maryland.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Oklahoma Sooners -10

Oklahoma has been great ATS after a win.  The Sooners are 11-1-1 over their last 13 after a victory. They will get a Vanderbilt team that has been reeling since the loss of Darius Garland. Losers of six straight games, squandering a chance to have a historic win against #1 Tennessee. The Vanderbilt team won’t be able to work off what could have been a very big and needed emotional boost.  

Sooners are 7-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming to Kansas State. Oklahoma rides the momentum from their win over Oklahoma State to get the triumph here.

Marquette Golden Eagles -2 at Xavier Musketeers

The Marquette Golden Eagles have won six straight games, finding themselves just one half game behind the Villanova Wildcats for first place in the Big East. Star Marcus Howard has been the catalyst all season along with Sam Hauser. Hauser in particular has emerged as the #2 scoring option averaging 15 ppg this season.  The key to the game though will be sophomore Theo John. The emergence of the 6-foot-9 sophomore center has given the Golden Eagles a jolt defensively that has made them a better team. Marquette is holding opponents to 68.9 points per game on 40.1 percent shooting, noticeable improvements on last season’s numbers of 78.5 and 47.9, respectively.

The Xavier Musketeers have not had the season they hoped for after last year’s Sweet Sixteen team. Xavier absorbed a 70-52 beating in Milwaukee on Jan. 6, shooting just 31.5 percent while making 1 of 14 from 3-point range. Revenge will be on the mind of the Musketeers who are 0-3 currently against top 25 teams this season.  Naji Marshall one of the top scorers for Xavier all season is questionable with a shoulder injury.  His absence will change this line before the morning.  Either way Marquette is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games as the favorite.

Dictating the pace of this game will be important.  Xavier will want a grind it out inside game while Marquette is going to look to go up pace and find room for Howard to work. I like Marquette to win and cover.

Other Picks:

LSU -4.5

Bama +3.5

SLU -2.5

Under Texas/ Georgia

Under Texas AM/ Kansas State

Over Marshall/Southern Miss

NCAAF Week 11 Pick ATS

Season Record: 25-25

Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers -17

The Missouri Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the year dominating the Florida Gators last week.  This week they get the Vanderbilt Commodores whom create rather different matchup.

The Commodores can keep up with the Missouri offense, Kyle Shurmur brings a bigger threat in the passing game then the dismal effort shown by Felipe Franks last week. The Commodores can also run the ball effectively, running  for a season-high – against FBS teams – 250 yards with four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas a few weeks ago, led by a 176-yard day from Ke’Shawn Vaughn.

This is just to many points to for a Missouri team that loves to let down its fans.  I see Mizzou winning this game but 17 points seems like to much.

PicksVanderbilt Commodores +17

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers -1.5

Indiana has lost four straight games including a rather embarrassing effort against Minnesota. The Indiana defense has given up over 150 yards rushing in each of its at four games.  When the Terrapin can run the ball, they can win.

The Terrapins also have the ability to cause turmoil on the defensive end. With a suspect Indiana passing game going against a strong secondary, I see turnovers for the Hoosiers.

PicksMaryland Terrapins +1.5

Ohio State -4 at Michigan State

If you just went off of analyst opinions you would think the Ohio State Buckeyes are at .500 or worse.  The Buckeyes sit at 8-1, still technically in the running for a shot at the College Football Playoff.  A win over a strong conference foe could be just the ticket to get them back on track.

Overshardowed by the negatives has been the terrific season by Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins. He set the OSU single-season record for completions against Nebraska and can break the single-season yardage mark with 278 against MSU. The Spartans, usually known for their stingy defense actuallly rank 98th in the country in pass defense.

Haskins will be to much for Michigan State, the Spartans will not be able to produce enoiugh on the offensive end to compete.  Ohio States defense is bad but they don’t have to be great this weekend to cover.

PicksOhio State -4

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils -13.5

I don’t try to have many trends in my College Football bets.  Mainly I just look at the lines I like and go with it.  But I have seemed to find a nice niche in fading the UCLA Bruins. Last weeks Oregon game was easy money and I look to see the same outcome this week.

Two teams going in two different directions.  It’s been a tale of two diffrerent coaches, while Chip Kelly has disappointed in his first season, Herm Edwards has already exceeded expectations.  Arizona State has more weapons and have been tough at home.  Look for the Sun Devils to roll.

PicksArizona State -13.5

 

Other Picks:

Kentucky -5.5

Purdue -11.5

Ole Miss/ Texas A&M Under 67

NCAAF Picks- Week 8

Last week could have been a disaster, but a push and a big upset from LSU helped us save face a bit.  This week a lot of big favorites that will make it tough for most cappers.  Lets get into this weeks picks. Record 11-13.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers, 67

When you have a rough week you have to switch things up.  Instead of a pick against the spread I am going to start with an over. Purdue enters this game winning three straight while putting up a few nice totals 30, 42 and 36. Much of the turnaround can be attributed to the play of quarterback David Blough, who has averaged nearly 400 passing yards per game since winning the starting job in Week 3.While their competition was not of the highest caliber the Boilmakers have still shown that they have some offensive ability.

Ohio State is will put up points over their own on the ground with JK Dobbins. I look for the Buckeyes to jump out to a big lead in the first quarter and play loose on the defensive end leading to major points.

PicksOver 67

Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars -2.5

Oregon has established themselves as a force in the Pac 12 sitting at 5-1 with back to back wins over Washington and California.  They share the best record in the conference with their competition on Saturday the Washington State Cougars.

Washington State playing at home will look to jump out to an early lead and they have the ability to do so. The Cougars average the 11th-most first-half points vs FBS foes in the nation, having put up 22 points per contest before the break. Taking an early lead can be a killer for an Oregon team that has had some tough history against the Pac 12 on the road. The Ducks had scored just 24 combined points in their previous three Pac-12 road contests.

This game is a rivalry game but I am riding the hot betting streak.  Washington State is 6-0 this season against the spread.  The Cougars are at home that’s why I give them the tilt in this one.

PicksWashington State -2.5

Cincinnati Bearcats at Temple Owls -3.5

The Bearcats are 6-0 for the first time in six years as they head into a matchup with fellow AAC conference foe Temple Owls.  Cincinnati’s unbeaten streak will be at risk against their first real competition of the season.  Cincinnati has allowed 24 points in its three road games and is giving up 13.7 points on the season, ranking third among FBS squads.

Cincinnati also has multiple receiver threats, six different Bearcats have accumulated between 10-21 receptions with Josiah Deguara leading the team in both categories (21 catches, 296 yards).

PicksCincinnati Bearcats +3.5

Oklahoma Sooners at TCU Horned Frogs -8

Oklahoma enters this game coming off a bye followed by a bye week.  The Sooners have had ample time to prepare for a TCU team that 3 of 4 including a 17-14 surprise loss to Texas Tech.

The Sooners are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye week with an average winning margin of 19. A rested Kyler Murray will lead an unstoppable Oklahoma offense that despite the loss put up points against a highly ranked Texas defense.  Murray still has a heisman on his mind and I expect him to put himself right back in the discussion after a thrashing of the Horned Frogs.

Oklahoma is 17-0 SU in its last 17 road games with an average winning margin of 21.06.

PicksOklahoma -8

Memphis Tigers at Missouri Tigers -10

Mizzou has lost three straight after starting the season with three straight wins.  Mizzou has had issues holding down good offenses giving up an average of 39 points over the last four games.

The Memphis offense features the NCAA’s top runningback Darrell Henderson, averaging 10.3 yards per carry.  Look for Memphis to pound the defensive front of Missouri which will open up the passing game for Quarterback Brady White. While this will be Memphis’s first game against a true FBS team they had a nice warm up against an elite player in Mackenzie Milton.

Drew lock will show up like he always does and throw for 300 yards, but the loss of top receiver Emanual Hall will make pressure situations tougher for the Mizzou offense.  On paper Mizzou has more talent, home field advantage and an elite Quarterback, but they have not shown the ability to cover.  Look for Mizzou to win but ten points seems like to much.

PicksMemphis +10

 

Other Picks:

Michigan State/ Michigan over 40

Clemson -17.5

Alabama vs. Tennessee over 57