Houston Cougars

A quick look at the South Region

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Best first round game- Houston vs UAB

Houston had big aspirations heading into the season.  Last year’s final four team was looking for a repeat performance in 2022.  Injuries to Tramon Mark and more importantly Marcus Sasser put a halt to the Cougars momentum.  Houston was still able to win the American Conference regular season and tournament title’s but they were not able to pick up a lot of trademark wins throughout the season.  They will matchup with the UAB Blazers high powered offense led by Jelly Walker.  The Blazers average 79 ppg and will look to run early and often. 

Houston will do all it can to dictate the pace, if they fall behind early they don’t have the firepower to overcome a deficit.  Kelvin Sampsons squad are in for a fight.

Sleeper- Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines pre-season hype may have been overblown but the talent they possess is real.  All-American Hunter Dickinson leads a team that entered the season in the top ten and owns wins over Purdue, at Iowa and at Ohio State.  The Wolverines seem to lose focus on the defensive end, but if they can find a way to lock in they have the offensive stars to make a run.  

They have a great big man, a senior guad and NBA level talent in Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate.  

Final- Tennessee vs. Arizona

The Volunteers got screwed in the seeding. They likely should have earned themselves a 2nd seed after winning the SEC tournament.  Despite that they find themselves in a good spot to make it to the Elite Eight.  Potential Sweet Sixteen matchups are the injured Buckeyes, an overrated mid-major Loyola and an underwhelming Villanova squad.  The Vols can shut you down on the defensive end and have gotten great guard play from Santiago Vescovi, Kennedy Chandleer and Zakai Ziegler. 

If the Vols continue their hot streak they will likely take on the extremely talented Arizona Wildcats.  The Cats are loaded, they are a top five offense with multiple bigs that can control the glass.  Christian Kokolo can dominate a game without the ball by controlling the paint, he allows the guards to play with a controlled chaos that is tough to guard. They also have a stud in Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona has everything but experience.  Sometimes talent is all you need, they have proven that all year.

Winner- Arizona

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 10

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Liberty Flames at Mississippi Rebels -10  Total: 67.5

The Liberty Flames will get their chance to take on one of the big boys when they face off against the Ole Miss Rebels.  

The Flames defense will have their hands full with future pro and potentially top overall draft pick, QB Matt Coral.  Coral will not have his full allotment of receivers but the Rebels will still be able to produce offense on the ground against a Liberty defense that gave up over 200 yards on the ground to both North Texas and UMass.  Corral actually leads the Rebels in rush yards this year with 519 to go along with ten rushing touchdowns, his ability to scramble will be tough for the Liberty defense to contain.  Henry Parrish Jr and Snoop Conner are both explosive out of the backfield, each average over 5 yards per carry. As a team Ole Miss averages over 6 yards per play on offense ranking them in the top ten in all of football.

Liberty will have a chance because they have a dynamic QB in Malik Willis.  Like Coral, Willis leads his team in rush yards, 684 yards while completing 66% of his passes.  The Liberty offense should have their way with a subpar Ole Miss defense.  The Rebels give up 429 yards of offense per game, most notably they give up a ton on the ground. Their inability to stop the run will force the defense to get worn down, Ole Miss ranks 107th in defense time on field.  This will be a huge factor in Liberty cashing in on offense. 

These two squads will both be fired up for this game and we will see a great matchup of the two most athletic and talented QB’s in all of college football. Both defenses will give up large chunks of yards and both defenses will not be able to keep the other out of the endzone.  The total has been set to low for this one.  I am on the over and lean Liberty with the late cover.

Pick: Over 67.5, Flames +10 

San Jose State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack  -10

Nevada has scored 49, 55, 34 and 51 while going 4-0 at home this season.  They have one of the most potent offenses through the air in all of college football, averaging 384 yards per game.  QB Carson Strong is coming off of a huge game against UNLV, throwing for 417 yards and four touchdowns.  Strong has built up a resume fit for a top NFL prospect, throwing for a total of 2,883 yards and a 24:5 TD to interception ratio.  Nevada in total averages 37.63 points per game, ranking 15th in the nation. This is a team that has built everything around the offensive side of the ball. 

The Nevada defense is not great, but they are able to force teams to play their way by jumping on them early with the high powered pass attack.  San Jose State does not have the offense to keep up with the Wolf Pack.  Nevada will be able to score, if they limit turnovers and control the field position the Spartans will not be able to keep up with the pace. 

San Jose State is just 1-5 ATS on the road in their last six. Nevada is 4-1 ATS in their last five. The Wolf Pack have to jump out early and when they do they will get the crowd into the game and that will lead to an easy victory and cover.

Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack -10

Houston Cougars at USF Bulls +13

The Houston Cougars have won seven games in a row after upsetting the SMU Mustangs 44-37.  Houston QB Clayton Tune has completed 69% of his passes for 1,883 yards and 16 touchdowns.  Houston is 5-3 ATS and an impressive 3-0 ATS on the road this season.  

USF had some issues holding onto the ball last week against Eastern Carolina.  QB Katravis Marsh threw three picks in their 29-14 loss.  The Bulls have lost four of their last five games.  USF has given up 31.88 points per game (105th in nation), their two wins came against Temple and Florida AM.  The defense is pretty bad, the offense isnt much better.  USF QB Timmy McClain has only completed 56% of his passes, they lean on the run game to produce offense.  Houston has been top ten against the run on the season, they are going to force the Bulls to beat them through the air.  They are not built to do that.   

The Cougars are one of the hottest teams in the country. Their offense is playing at an elite level.  Getting a matchup with a terrible USF team is a great way for Clayton Tune and company to show their dominance. This game will never be close.  Number should be way higher. 

Pick: Houston Cougars -13 

NCAAF Picks Oct 19

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Houston Cougars at UConn Huskies +22

The Huskies are fade worthy every single week.  This week is no different.  The Houston Cougars saw themselves potentially on the verge of pulling off an upset of a top 25 team until they gave up 17 points and the lead to Cincinnati in the 4thquarter.

Heading into a matchup with UConn, Cougar’s QB Clayton Tune should be able to find his grove pretty easily (if healthy).  Houston was able to move the ball pretty well versus a stout Cincinnati defense until their collapse.  If Tune is healthy, he should be able to dominate on the offensive end. 

UConn playing at home which should give them a bump, but this is still UConn.  Money is coming in on the Huskies which has already dropped this by a half a point.  I just believe the Cougars will play with a fire after their tough loss last week. They jump out early and run the score up. 

Pick: Houston Cougars -22

Oregon State Beavers at California Golden Bears Total: 51.5

California is coming off a much-needed bye week, previously losing a tough 17-7 game versus Pac12 powerhouse Oregon.  The Bears are still without Quarterback Chase Garbers, they will again look to Devon Modster to carry the Golden Bears offense.  California’s defense will have to be the star on Saturday, Oregon State QB Jake Lutton has been lighting up the sky with 1400 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one interception on the season.

California has gone 4-0 in unders at home and 10-1 on unders in their last 11 conference games.   I expect California to win this game at home, that means it will have to be a low scoring affair.  Cal doesn’t have the offense to compete with Oregon State, but their defense at home is too good.  Cal wins 26- 18.

Pick: Under 51.5

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers -3

Virginia is looking to get their groove back after two straight losses versus Notre Dame and Miami, relinquishing their lead in the ACC Coastal Division.  What’s been the problem?  The offensive line’s inability to handle the pass rush.  That should not be the same problem heading into their matchup with the Duke Blue Devils.  

Duke has been red hot offensively against the weaker opponents on the schedule, Middle Tennessee, North Carolina A&T, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  Losing rather easily to the Alabama and Pittsburgh. Duke was not able to throw the ball well in their two losses.  They will have to be able to throw against Virginia, who ranks 11thin the country against the run.  

This is the time to buy low on Virginia.  Only a three-point spread at home against a team that has not shown the ability to handle real competition.  The concerns about injuries in the secondary for Virginia will have people worried about the recency bias of Duke’s offense.  Virginia will have the use of #1 wide receiver Hasise Dubois, which means they will be at full force on the offensive end.  

Three points at home for the top of the ACC Coastal Division.  Give me the Cavaliers all day.  

Pick: Virginia -3

Other Games I’m leaning

Florida -5

Temple +9