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NBA DFS Picks- December 27

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Unlike most in the DFS world I really enjoy a smaller slate. Five gamers allow you go play a stars and scrubs lineup and have a great chance to win. You can highlight a few players you want to watch. Here are the picks for tonights slate.

PG: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors ($8,900)

I am drawn to a Warriors stack after the embarasment from Christmas night. The Blazers have been underwhelming to say the least and have a serious issues guarding the three. Damian Lillard on the other end seems like a solid play but I am going heavy Warriors tonight.

SG: Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers ($5,800)

No Lebron, this becomes Ingrams team again whether the fans want it or not.

SF: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors ($9,300)

I reference my Steph Curry reasoning.

PF: Noah Vonleh, New York Knicks ($5,600)

Vonleh seems to be the only matchup the Knicks have against Giannis. He has played like the player people thought he would be coming out of Indiana. Vonleh also just put up 36 points on Christmas day against the same Bucks team he is playing tonight. Low cost for a solid matchup.

C: Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Lakers ($5,400)

This pick could change depending on the health of Javale McGee, no matter what Zubac has been very impressive when given time to play. Centers versus Kings are also always a solid play.

G: Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers ($5,500)

Ball is a similar play to Zubac. With Rondo out he will be the primary point guard. Again PG’s versus Kings is also a solid play on most nights.

F: Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics ($4,700)

Not gonna lie this one is a wildcard pick against a poor Houston defense. Hayward has been streaky all season, but brings multiple potential options for points. Hayward has been consistent with 25 minutes per game and could have a couple of nice matchups in this one.

UTL: Nemanja Bjelica, Sacramento Kings ($4,800)

Bjelica is a solid player and the Kings will need to use their bench playing back to back games.

I will look to make changes based on injuries. Also may look to stack more Kings/Lakers players. Want to stick with Durant and Curry as my star plays.

DFS Picks November 19 2018

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November 19 2018- DFS Draftkings pick.

Big slates are always fun.  Tonights slate is very interesting with a lot of different injuries impacting starting lineups.

PG: DeAron Fox, Sacramento Kings ($6,100)

Fox at $6,100 is to cheap.  OKC is without Westbrook and with Tony Ferguson.  Both teams will look to play at a quick pace.

SG: Tyreke Evans, Indiana Pacers ($4,100)

Victor Oladipo is out tonight.  That means the Pacers will need some production from from the guards, Evans brings the most upside.  Look at his usage rate to jump tonight.

SF: Tobias Harris, Los Angeles Clippers ($7,800)

Harris gives you a little bit of everything at a great price. Atlanta is a team that gives up points in bunches.  Who is going to stop Harris?  Answer… no one.

PF: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans ($11,600)

Davis has put up over 60 DK points in five straight games.  San Antonio is without Davis Bertans, Pau Gasol and any rim protection at all.  Davis is pricy but worth the cost.

C: Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers ($4,700)

Turner will get a lot of chances to score tonight without Oladipo.  Same argument for Evans with Oladpio out Turner’s usage rate jumps up.

G: Colin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,100)

Sexton is a gamble but with three straight games playing over 30 minutes and putting up over 30 points Sexton is a plug and play guy at an affordable price.  As long as Cleveland continues to play their young players there is upside to Sexton.

F: TJ Warren, Phoenix Suns ($6,400)

TJ Warren scores and scores in bunches start him and watch him go.

UTL: Monte Morris, Denver Nuggets ($4,100)

Morris is inexpensive and has been playing starters minutes, end of story.

Good luck tonight!

 

 

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 9

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Last week went pretty well going 5-3 with my picks.  Cincinnati blew the game against Temple and Mizzou actually showed up against Memphis.  But 5-3 brings me back to .500.  Let’s look into this week’s games.

Wisconsin Badgers -4.5 at Northwestern Wildcats

The Badgers entered the season looking for a National Championship.  Those dreams died at the hands of the BYU Cougars.  They continued to get buried against surging Michigan two weeks ago.  The bounce back came last week against the Illini and it will continue Saturday against Northwestern.

The Wildcats are as one-dimensional averaging just 2.9 yards per carry.  Sure the Wisconsin secondary is not great but they are well coached and will be able to shut down the one strength of Northwestern.

Alex Hornibrook will come up big against a weak Northwestern pass rush.  Look for Hornibrook to play above is usual level allowing RB Jonathon Taylor to run wild.

PicksWisconsin -4.5

Vanderbilt Commodores at Arkansas Razorbacks, 53.5

Vandy being favored at Arkansas shows the decline of the Razorbacks program. Arkansas will enter this game giving up 34, 24, 65, and 37 points against SEC teams.  While the Commodores are not an offensive juggernaut they should be able to move the ball.  This game is more about two teams that don’t play very good defense in the SEC.

This game could be garbage or it could be a scoring marathon.  I am betting on scoring.

PicksOver 53.5

Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers -7

I have gone back and forth on Missouri all season.  I don’t believe Drew Lock is as good as people think especially in big games, but he has his moments. His moment will come this weekend against the Kentucky Wildcats.

Kentucky has not shut down a good offense.  There wins have come against a struggling Mississippi State, a so-so South Carolina and a dreadful Vanderbilt team. They will need to put up points in Columbia.  Even if I don’t believe in Lock long-term the talent is still there.

The Missouri defense’s biggest weakness is their pass defense.  Kentucky QB Terry Wilson has yet to throw for more than 151 yards during their 6-1 start. Benny Snell will get his but they will fall behind early on the road and won’t be able to get themselves out of trouble.

PicksMissouri -7

Texas Longhorns -3.5 at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Texas is on the rise.  Since their lose to Maryland in week one they have taken no prisoners.  Wins over Oklahoma, TCU and USC have helped put them right in the National Championship conversation.  Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is very questionable for this game, with bigger matchups coming up for Texas I can see them taking a conservative approach with him in this game.

Junior, Shane Buechele will most likely get the start.  Buechele may not have the skills of Ehlinger but he did get starts for Texas during his freshman season, so the moment should not be too big for the Junior.

The Longhorns have owned Oklahoma State in Stillwater, winning 8 of 9 game against them.  The Longhorns need this game more then the Cowboys, it will show on Saturday.

PicksTexas -3.5

 

Other Picks:

Virginia -9

Oklahoma -24.5

South Florida +7.5

What I learned from week 2

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Texans may not be very good.

Division matchups are always tough.  The Houston Texans were suppose to be the clear favorites of the AFC South due to the return of DeShaun Watson but things don’t work out how they should in the NFL.  Heading into Tennessee Houston’s dominant defensive line had to be licking the chops at the chance to go against the backup Blaine Gabbert and an injury riddled Titans offensive line.

This was a chance for Houston to make a statement in the division….but they lost.  The undermanned Titans were able to use trickery and game management to pull off the win.  Houston had its bright spots with the return of Will Fuller to the lineup going for 117 yards and a touchdown.  But in the end the Texans went to 0-2.  This will be a lose that can make a huge impact later on in the year.

The Browns will never change.

The Cleveland Browns were suppose to be on their way out of the cellar of the NFL.  An emerging defense, signing veterans Jarvis Landry, Carlos Hyde and Tyrod Taylor to go along with young stars like David Njoku and Antonio Callaway.  A coaching staff that consisted of Todd Haley and Greg Williams to mask the issues of Hue Jackson.

They had a chance to pull off two victories against New Orleans and Pittsburgh but the football gods refuse to allow them to take the next step in their development.  This team has improved but they have to get over the stigma of being losers.

I may be wrong about Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL over the first two weeks.  Throwing for 10 touchdowns, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers. Two teams that most believed would be playoff bound coming into the season.  Mahomes has utilized the assets around him better then previous QB Alex Smith could have ever done.

Mahomes arm strength has allowed players like Sammy Watkins and Tyreke Hill to have freedom going down the field.  It has opened up the middle for Travis Kelce making this team a dangerous offensive force.

I believed that Mahomes was not ready to make an immediate impact, I figured that he would take some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL.  I was wrong.

The Jags are the real deal.

If I told you the Jaguars would bet the New England Patriots last season you would have to assume that it was the defense that controlled the game.  While they were good it was the play of Blake Bortles that carried the Jaguars to their first regular season win versus the big boys of the AFC the New England Patriots.

It’s time to stop looking at the Jaguars as an emerging team and realize that they are the class of the AFC.  They are no longer looking to just reach the playoffs, they are expected the reach the playoffs.

 

 

MLB DFS Lineup- Sept 18

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Haven’t posted a DFS Lineup in awhile, but I like a few matchups tonight that I think can be exploited.  May make a few changes once official Lineups come out.  All prices are based off of Draftkings.

P: Jake Odorizzi vs Detroit  ($8,000)

P: Joey Lucchessi vs San Francisco ($7,600)

C: Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays ($3,600)

1B: Ji-Man Choi, Tampa Bay Rays ($4,500)

2B: Joey Wendle, Tampa Bay Rays ($4,200)

3B: Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds ($4,400)

SS: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians ($5,500)

OF: Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee Brewers ($4,500)

OF: Kiki Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers ($3,900)

OF: Billy Mckinney, Toronto Blue Jays ($3,700)

I like the matchup of Lucchessi vs a depleted Giants lineup.  He has had success against them along with some serious strikeout potential.  Teaming him up with Jake Odorizzi could be great low level cost pitchers allowing you to grab some bigger bats.

The bigger bats I went with wer Francisco Lindor, Lorenzo Cain and Ji Man Choi.  Choi has been crushing the ball especially vs righties this season.  The Rays should be a popular stack playing in Texas and facing the explodable Yovanni Gallardo.

Good luck!

Time to sell. Is that a bad thing?

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The Cardinals stepped into the second half taking a glass is half full approach.  By moving on from Mike Matheny all their problems would magically dissapear.  The bullpen would pitch better, Ozuna and Fowler would start hitting, the defense would play error free.  After just six games they realized that not only was the glass half empty but it has been thrown to the ground and shattered.

Sitting five games back in the Wild Card is an illusion of potential for a team that has lost its way.  While they only sit five games back they have to jump two teams in their own division just to make case for the second spot. It is time to open their eyes and see that this is a team that has to find a new direction.  I wrote a piece earlier in the month talking about the potential of trading “ace” Carlos Martinez in hopes to have a return that can set them up for future success.  While it is unlikely that they move on from Martinez they have to see that it is time move the pieces that are not going to be a part of the future.   Players like Jedd Gyroko, Jose Martinez, Kolten Wong,  Tommy Pham and Bud Norris have to be put on the trade block.  Each one of these players have friendly contracts and assets that can intrigue true contending teams.

Players like Jedd, Jose and Kolten may not bring you high valued prospects in return, but  they can allow the team to open up spots for young talent. Players that are ready in the minors like Patrick Wisdom and Tyler O’Neil need to be called up and put into bench roles while Yairo Munoz and Harrison Bader should be given the chance to play everyday to see what they can bring to the table on a day to day basis.  The players that can bring you the most value on the market like Bud Norris and Tommy Pham should be moved in order to restock your system with top 15 potential players.

So why not move your hottest hitter Matt Carpenter or your bad contract Dexter Fowler or your “big” offseason pickup Marcell Ozuna?

Carpenter is the player you have to build around, moving him full time to first base is your best option and can bring you stability to work around for your infield.

Fowler’s contract will most surely be impossible to move.  The reality is that you have to put him on the bench and try and find a suitor in the offseason that will help you take on some of his salary (Very Unlikely).

Ozuna is injured.  He has little to no value at the moment unless you want to sell low.  Shut him down and let him go fix his shoulder injury.  If you would like to move him next season before he becomes a free agent then look into it then.  He has to much potential as a great trade piece when he is fully healthy.

It’s hard for a front office to admit that the season is a bust.  I am not admitting that it is a bust yet, but what the organization is putting on the field is not one that can make it to the playoffs let alone compete in an extremely competitive 2018 National League Central.  Let the young kids come up and see what kind of impact they bring.  Being a seller at the deadline does not admit defeat it can show a better understanding of your personal.  This team needs a change, they need fresh faces beyond Mike Shildt.  Let the young guys play and see if it can turn things around.  Use Poncdeleon, Gomber and eventually Dakota Hudson in the bullpen if their is not a spot in the rotation.  Let Bader get as many at bats as he can and see if he changes your team dynamic.  Cardinals fans may not like the idea of “selling” but they will have to understand that sometimes selling just means admitting your mistakes.   Everyone can accept that.

Grizzlies All-Star Reliever set for new role

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In the summer of 2017 Micheal Elwood was in Kansas enjoying a Country Stampede concert.   No longer thinking about continuing his baseball career after a Gateway Grizzlies Manager Phil Warren said that there was no room on the roster for him. “I figured that was the end,” said Elwood. He had accepted that maybe his time as a baseball player was over.  Then right as Chase Rice took the stage Elwood received a phone call  from Normal Cornbelters Manager Brooks Carey.  Carey was calling Elwood to offer him a spot on the Cornbelters roster based on his tryout with Gateway. His time as a baseball player was not over yet.

Micheal Elwood, 25,  spent his college career pitching for Canisius College located in Buffalo, New York.  Originally a shortstop/first baseman made the transition to full time pitcher his sophomore year.  “I was pitching in a summer game in Buffalo and after the game a few scouts came up to me and said every pitch I threw was over 90 MPH. I was shocked.”   The transformation into full time pitcher had become official.  He began to focus on pitching, having his most successful season during his senior campaign finishing with 5-4 record, and a 4.26 ERA having thrown in 57 innings throughout the year.

Elwood struggled through is first Frontier League season finishing with a a 7.12 ERA while appearing in 13 games for the Cornbelters.  Despite the rough start Elwood received an invite back to spring training for the 2017 season. Making the 13 hour trip from his home in Texas to Bloomington, Il ready to make his mark in the Frontier league, another call came from Brooks Carey.  Carey informed Elwood that he had been traded to the Gateway Grizzlies the original team that he had tried out for.  Elwood turned his car around and began to head to Sauget, Illinois.

Elwood made an immediate impact with the Gateway Grizzlies  becoming a force out of the bullpen. Working 32 innings across 21 appearances  with a team-leading three wins against zero loses holding a 3.09 ERA in the first half of the season earning him a spot in the Frontier League All- Star game as one of three Gateway Grizzlies representatives. Elwood continued to impress finishing the season with a 3.05 ERA over 42 appearances.

Entering the 2018 season the Gateway Grizzlies had to fill the void left by departing veteran pitchers, JaVuan West, Will Landsheft, and Vince Molesky.  Starting pitching became a need.  Elwood was given the chance to fill one of the holes in the rotation.  “I realized that I can be most helpful to the organization as a starter. I have a knuckleball that I can use more as a starter.” said Elwood when asked about his new role. “We have so many strong arms at the end of the bullpen and the front of the rotation hopefully I can give us six or seven strong every night.”

Elwood will be entering his third season in the Frontier League, for the first time going into the season with a defined role and high expectations.  “We have five guys in the rotation that have been in pro ball for a long time. I learn from them everyday. I think we have all of the pieces to have a championship team.”

Elwood’s new role has will be tested for the first time Wed. May 16th at the Washington Wild Things.  If all goes to plan he will be making his first home start for Gateway will be their next home stand May 22-24 against the Lake Erie Crushers.

 

Grizzlies Pitching Depth for 2018

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The Gateway Grizzlies added two pitchers to their spring training roster to add more depth to veteran Manager Phil Warren’s pitching staff.  LHP Keelan Smithers and RHP Kevin Simmons will join the team as they head into spring training.

Keelan Smithers, 23, an imposing figure at 6′ 5″ 230lbs. Smithers spent his college years in the Ivy League as a member of the Princeton Tigers.  The big lefty made 34 appearances, 29 starts, garnering 7 wins with a 5.84 ERA over his four year tenure.

Kevin Simmons, 24, played his college ball at Wallace Community College (Dothan, Alabama).  2014 16th round draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks spent two years in their system going 3-5 with a 3.95 ERA. Simmons brings Frontier League experience pitching for the Joliet Slammers during the 2016 season.  In 34 appearances out of the bullpen Simmons went 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA.

Smithers and Simmons will join a pitching staff looking to improve on a 5.11 team ERA during the 2017 season .

The Grizzlies will begin their spring training schedule Tuesday April 1st against the Southern Illinois Miners in Marion.

For the Grizzlies full schedule go to Gatewaygrizzlies.com.