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Three Keys to Cardinals Success in 2021

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Kwang Hyun Kim 

There was a lot of attention paid to re-signing Adam Wainwright and the arbitration hearing of Jack Flaherty.  The veteran and the ace will both play a huge role in the formation of the rotation but the key pitcher of the entire staff could be the second year lefty from Korea Kwang Hyun Kim.

Kim’s first season in the MLB was fantastic by traditional standards.  He had a 1.62 ERA in eight games pitched (seven starts), finishing with a record of 3-0.  ERA is a deceiving number, you look at any ERA under two and assume that he was an effective starter but in reality Kim had issues in 2020.  His ERA is likely a product of his ability to strand base runners.  He stranded 86% of baserunners in 2020, he was one of seven players to do that all season.  Through just seven starts, that number can be maintained.  How will that play out over the longivity of a 162 game season.

The Cardinals have a lot of options for the rotation, but after Jack Flaherty and Wainwright there lies a lot of strictly potential.  Unfortunately potential doesn’t lead to victories.  The options of Miles Mikolas (missed most of 2020), the unpredictable Carlos Martinez, the often injured and unproven Alex Reyes, the starter turned reliever turned starter Jon Gant, and the stable Daniel Ponce de Leon all are going to have a chance to compete for a spot but they all bring uncertainty.  For St. Louis to be a real contender for a championship they will need stability somewhere in the rotation.  Kim is a veteran  of professional baseball, he features some nasty stuff that can be effective against major league hitters, but his consistency will be a question and his continued ability to pitch around trouble.  There was luck involved in Kim’s success last year.  That same luck may not be there this year. 

Kim’s performance will dictate the entire staff.  

Tommy Edman taking the leadoff spot.

On opening day the Cardinals will not have Kolten Wong on their roster for the first time since the 2015 season.  His dazzling defense will be missed but it could be his steady play at the plate over the last few seasons that will leave a gap that even his backhand couldn’t plug up.  Wong took over the leadoff spot in 2019, leading to the best offensive season of his career with a .361 OBP, 25 steals and 11 homers.  2020 was not a stellar offensive season for Wong but he still was able to amass a .350 OBP, which was good enough for third on the team behind slugger Paul Goldschmidt and veteran Brad Miller.

The Cardinals have to find an answer for the top of the order.  Guys like Dylan Carlson and potentially Matt Carpenter could fit the mold.  Carlson fits better in the #2 slot in the lineup, allowing the young hitter to get fastballs being protected by Goldschmidt and the newly acquired Nolan Arenado. Carpenter, entering the age 35 season, has seen nothing but regression. 2020 saw Carpenter have his lowest WRC+ (83), his OBP was decent at .325 but he also had his strikeout rate jump to 28%.  Carpenter’s bat speed has dropped at an alarming level ccausing his hard hit percentage to be at just 35%.   His time at the top of the order is over.  

Edman has the versatility to stay in the lineup.  He can play all over the field and can switch hit, making him a great matchup for any starter.  Edman will get the first shot at the leadoff spot and if he can bring the same offensive output he brought in 2019 the Cardinals offense will be impossible to stop.

Tyler O’Neill living up to the hype. 

The time has come for Tyler O’Neil.  Is he a boom or a bust? He won a gold glove last year, so that would be a positive.  He has hit 140 career homers in the minor leagues over seven seasons.  That is Crash Davis level power at the minor level.  It’s time for the organization to find out what they have in the burly bomber.  

The Cardinals committed to the youth in the outfield movement.  Moving Dexter Fowler, made Harrison Bader the oldest projected starter at 26 years old.  Top prospect Dylan Carlson will move into the biggest role on the team, projecting to play multiple spots in the outfield as well as be primed in the middle of the order.  The aformentioned Bader will man centerfield and play gold glove level outfield, anything from the plate will be a plus but not much can be expected.  The Cardinal’s will need O’Neill to live up to his early career promise.  The strikeouts will be there but the power has to show up. 

St. Louis showed it’s commitment to a new approach in the outfield, they have to have the confidence to stick with O’Neill and allow him to get comfortable at the plate.  Let him go through early growing pains to figure out his swing.  He will reward the Cardinals with the power and protection needed for your big bats.  Oh, he is also the fastest player in baseball.  Let this guy loose. 

NCAAB Play of the day: Detroit Titans at Northern Kentucky Norse

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The Horizon League tournament is continuing Tuesday night with a matchup of one of my favorite teams the Detroit Titans versus the Northern Kentucky Norse.  

Detroit is on a 11-2 run over their last 13 games after a dreadful start to the season.  The offense has been the story for the Titans, they are averaging 76 ppg on the season. They have put up at least 80 points in 6 of their last 7 games.  They are led by arguably the best guard in the Horizon League in Antoine Davis.  Davis put on a show inthe first round of the Horizon tournament scoring 46 points against Robert Morris.  He leads an offensive that has an effective field goal percentage of 54.7% and as a team they are one of the top free throw shooting teams in college basketball shooting an astounding 80% from the line.  

Northern Kentucky has an efficient offense of their own, ranking 139th in the nation in offensive efficiency.  The Norse are strong on the inside averaging 54% from inside the arc and average a 34% offensive rebound rate.  Their advantage on the inside will allow them to score against a mediocre Detroit defense.  The Norse feature guards Trevon Faulkner and and Marquiss Walker, both have the ability to penetrate the defense and get easy buckets. 

This game features two teams that are efficient on the offensive end while lacking the ability to get consistent stops on defense. The Detroit offense will set the tone behind Antoine Davis and try and get this game to a more uptempo pace. This being a conference tournament game means we will likely see a lot of fouling at the end which plays in perfectly for the over.  Detroits ability to his outside shots and put away teams on the free throw line should lead to a victory and a higher scoring matchup. I am leaning towards Detroit at -1.5 but my favorite play is the over.

Play of the day: Over 146 (Like Detroit -1.5)

NCAAB Play of the day: Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats

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The Sooners are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games, including victories over Alabama, Texas, Kansas and West Virginia.  With a litany of big victories under their belt they came out flat in their last matchup against Iowa State, sneaking by the Cyclones by only ten points and failing to cover the spread.  I expect Lon Kruger’s bunch will come out to set the tone early on the road against the cellar dweller Kansas State.  They will look to make quick work of a team that historically they have not had a lot of success against.  

Oklahoma is not an offensive juggernaut, when they do score, they do it efficiently, ranking 31st in offensive efficiency.  Austin Reaves, De’Vion Harmon and Brady Manek all average double figures and should be able to have their way with a less than stellar Kansas State defense that gives up 72 ppg and 46% shooting.  In their first matchup of the year Oklahoma handled Kansas State winning 76-50 on January 19th.  They were able to cover the spread while only shooting 11/21 from the free throw line.  It was their top 20 ranked defense that shined forcing 23 Wildcat turnovers.

Kansas State has no offensive identity, because they don’t score.  They average just 61 ppg with an effective field goal percentage of 47.6 on the season ranking them near the bottom. They don’t shoot three well (29%) and they can’t make anything from the free throw line (65%), their leading scorer is Nijuel Pack who averages 12 per game, he didn’t play in their first matchup with the Sooners but he will have a tough task of going against Reaves and Harmon, they will lock him down and stop any kind of K-State offensive push.  The Wildcats don’t have any kind of home court advantage either, they are 3-12 ATS at Bramlage Coliseum.

Oklahoma is better in every facet of the game and will show it on Tuesday night. 10.5 points on the road is a lot but the Sooners have a defense that will hold K-State under 60 and Lon Kruger will take advantage of multiple mis-matches.  

 Play of the day: Oklahoma Sooners -10.5

NCAAB Play of the day: Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Iowa Hawkeyes

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A Big10 matchup with two teams going in the opposite directions will meet on Wednesday night when the Rutgers Scarlet Knights take on the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Scarlet Knights have won four straight games and now find themselves back in the top 25.  Rutgers is a strong defensive team, ranking 17th in Kenpom in defensive efficiency. The return of big man Cliff Omoruyi has added to the depth in the middle, along with starter Myles Johnson they should be able to make trouble for Iowa star Luka Garza.  On the offensive end Rutgers has a litany of talent that makes them unpredictable at times.  Ron Harper Jr. leads the team in scoring averaging 16 ppg.  He is one of four that average double digits along with Montez Mathis, Jacob Young and Gio Baker. They really spread out the scoring and it showed in their first matchup with the Hawkeyes with five players scoring 13 points or moreAs a team the Rutgers offense averages 68 ppg but they are extremely efficient in getting those points.  They are a top 50 team in offensive efficiency.  

Iowa has not lived up to the preseason potential.  The offense is still elite, ranking 3rd in the nation in scoring, averaging 87 ppg.  Iowa did a lot of that damage against some of the lesser competition in college basketball.  They have had an issue with some of the more athletic teams in college basketball.  Indiana gave them trouble on the defensive end, doubling down on Garza as much as they could and forcing it out of his hands.  The potential return of CJ Fredrick could help with the outlet passes that can lead to points.  Iowa will find points but their problems on defense are impossible to ignore.  They are currently giving up 74 points per game on the season ranking 279th in the nation.  

Iowa is the superior team on offense, but they have an issue with turnovers and consistency.  Garza put up 25 in their first matchup shooting 9 for 11.  Rutgers played that game without Cliff Omoruyi, his addition will create more havoc for Garza.  Keegan Murray stepped up in their last matchup, he is the only player on Iowa that can match the athleticism of Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights will keep this game close.  Seven points in this matchup is too much for two teams that are going in opposite directions. 

Play of the day: Rutgers Scarlet Knights +7

NCAAB Play of the Day: St. John’s Red Storm at Butler Bulldogs

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The St. John’s Red Storm are the talk of the Big East.  Winners of six straight, including victories over UConn, Villanova, Marquette and most recently Providence.  They have also been the talk of the betting community, covering the spread in eight straight games.  The Red Storm are a hurricane, moving fast and causing devastation on the offensive end.  They are the 12th fastest team in the nation according to Kenpom and they are very efficient, ranking 41st in the nation in offensive efficiency.   Their offensive is highlighted by super freshman guard Posh Alexander, he leads the team in assists with 4.4 a game.  He has also picked up his scoring output over the last five games, averaging 17.4 ppg.  Alexander’s runningmate and the team’s leading scoring Julain Champagnie (18.6 ppg), is a matchup nightmare for any team in the Big East.  Champagnie is 6’8” and shoots 43% from three. 

The Butler Bulldogs have had a rough season.  They lost guard Aaron Thompson early in the season, which set them back to start the season.   Even with Thompson the Butler offense seems lost.  As a team they only average 63 ppg (331st in the nation).  The Bulldogs ended a three game losing streak on Saturday when they took down Depaul at home.  Butler cannot find consistent points from anywhere, they are horrible in the paint and even worse from the free throw line. Jaire Bolden leads Butler in scoring with 12.1 ppg, he is coming off of his worst game of the season, scoring just 3 points in their win over Depaul.  In order to keep up with the fast paced Red Storm, Bolden will have to be better. 

The Bulldogs at home in the past would have been an easy cover spot, but this team is having problems on the offensive end that is hard to ignore.  For Butler to win they will have to slow the pace of the game. They also have to defend the three, something they have not done well all season.  Butler gives up 37% shooting from deep, that is a strength for St. Johns who shoots the ball at 36% (71st in the nation).  These two teams met once this year with St. John’s taking the victory at home 69-57.  The Bulldogs were able to play their pace in that game but turned the ball over 16 times.  The game plan for St. Johns will be simple, move fast and force Butler to score.  If you grab a lead early on the Bulldogs they do not have the firepower to come back.  Take the Red Storm.  

Play of the day: St. John’s ML

NCAAB Play of the day: Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

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Big Ten basketball is about as unpredictable as any conference on any night.  On Monday night we get a matchup between the rising Ohio State Buckeyes and the upset minded Maryland Terrapins. 

The Terps are literally a box of chocolates, never knowing what you are going to get.  They feature wins over Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota, all are great individual wins in a season where they are just 10-9 overall.  Maryland has a lot of talent, they are led by Junior guard Eric Ayala who is coming off of his best game of the year putting up 23 points in their loss to Penn State Friday night. The Terps were not impressive in their their loss Penn State, they only put up 50 points in a matchup with a weaker defensive unit in the Nittany Lions.  They will have to find more points if they want keep up with one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are on a roll. The Buckeyes have established themselves as the top of the food chain in the loaded Big Ten winning 7 of 8 and sitting just behind Illinois and Michigan for the top overall record in the conference.  The Buckeyes have a dynamic connection between EJ Liddell and Duane Washington, either one has the ability to take over a game at any moment. The offense has been on a tear scoring at least 74 points per game in four straight, if they are able to reach 70 that could be well out of the range for the Terps as they live up to their namesake with one of the slowest paces in the Big Ten. 

The Buckeyes are able to run their offense through EJ Liddell in the post.  Maryland won’t have a big that can hang with him,  they will be forced to pack the defense in, allowing the Ohio State motion offense to work around the athletic Maryland wings.  Ohio State has been efficient on offense ranking top five in the country in offensive efficiency.  Maryland’s experience and athletes will keep this one tight but Ohio State is awesome from the free throw line and should lock this one down in the end.  

Play of the day: Ohio State -3.5

NCAAB Play of the day: George Mason Patriots vs Dayton Flyers

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The Dayton Flyers and George Mason Patriots will face Friday night both trying to rebound from conference losses.  The Flyers were upset on the road against Duquesne while George Mason got rolled by conference powerhouse St. Bonaventure.  These two teams will be meeting for the second time this season, the Flyers winning and covering in their first matchup. 

Dayton could not find their offensive flow in their last game shooting just 40% as a team.  They are one of the better teams offensively in the country shooting 47% on the season ranking them 40th in the country.  They are led by guards Jalen Crutcher and Ibi Watson, both were able to put up 42 total points in their last matchup with the Patriots. The emergence of forward Mustapha Amzil has helped deal with the losses of Chase Johnson and Rodney Chatman. The Flyers offense is efficient with 2-point and 3-point field goal percentages ranking in the top 20. 

George Mason has not been effective consistently on the offensive end .  They are led by guard Jordan Miller, averagin 15ppg on the season and was the lone bright spot in their loss to the Bonnies.  The biggest problem for George Mason has been their inability to take freebies at the free throw line.  They rank at the bottom of the nation from the free throw line.  The Patriots seem to run their offense better on the road, their record of 6-1 to the over on the road is both baffling and intriguing for the fanbase and the  betting community. 

Dayton’s offense is almost elite level ranking 28th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, they are also great from the free throw line shooting 74% from the line.  While their offense is great their defense is far from effective. George Mason shouldn’t have problems running their offense.  With the talent on the Flyers offensive end and their struggles on defense I am rolling with the over 131.  These two teams hit the over in their first matchup and the overall total dropped by 5 points.  I would like to go with the Flyers covering the -6 spread but they have had a lot of problems closing out teams in the second half.  This total is too low, so that seems like the better play. 

Play of the day: George Mason/Dayton Over 131

Rockies Rebuild

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The Rockies trading away Nolan Arenado was not surprising.  They are beginning a rebuild around one of the best young shortstops in the game in Trevor Story and to be able to afford his impending free agency, moving on from $215 million seems like a no brainer.  What was really surprising is the reported return for the 5-time All-Star.  The Rockies did not get any of the top 7 prospects in the Cardinals system.  They got one major league ready player in Austin Gomber but injuries and inconsistencies have made him a question mark at best as to what he will be in the future.  Still the Rockies did add more prospect depth to their system and freed up a lot of money, they still have a lot of work to do to raise their farm system ranking (currently 27th).  If they are committed to full rebuild they have a few players that could bring them value.  I am going to rank the best value they have excluding Trevor Story.  

5. Ian Desmond, 35, OF

Three years ago Ian Desmond wouldn’t have been worth the paper his contract was written on. Desmond sat out the 2020 season and is building off of a solid 2019.  Desmond has versatility and an affordable contract for $8 million in 2021.  He has a club option for 2022 which can be exercised if he has a productive season.  Desmond has versatility and power that teams are looking for.  He won’t bring in the top prospect for any organization but his 20 homers over the last two active seasons still gives him value.  He can get a few nice pieces at the lower level, with the current situation the Rockies are in they need a lot of depth.  

4. Kyle Freeland, LHP

Kyle Freeland looked like a pitcher that the Rockies were going to build around after a stellar 2018 season.  The former first round draft pick stumbled hard in 2019 and was up and down in 2020.  Freeland is still just 27-years-old and has arbitration for the next two years.  

Freeland has had trouble getting out right-handed hitters, giving up big power numbers to the opposite side of the plate.  A large portion of those fingers were given up at Coors Field.  Take Freeland out of Coors and he could return to his 2018 form.  If he is anything close to that he can be a great addition for a playoff team looking for a fourth starter with years of potential.  

3. Scott Oberg, RHP

Scott Oberg dealt with some serious injuries in the 2020 season, which forced him to miss the entire year.  The 30-year-old right hander began a throwing program in November and should be ready to go for 2021. Oberg’s last two active seasons he was a high level reliever in a place that is not friendly for pitchers.  Oberg had two straight seasons with elite level ERA+ with 193 (2018) and 230 (2019).  Oberg will be a commodity if healthy at the trade deadline.  If he comes back from his injury and shows the ability that he has he can be a great trade deadline piece for a team that needs bullpen help.   

2. Charlie Blackmon, OF 

Charlie Blackmon has been a part of trade rumors for multiple seasons. Blackmon has two years left on his current contract with $44 million due.  His player option for the next two seasons makes him a gamble for most teams, which will reduce the cost on the market for the 34-year-old.  

Blackmon is still an effective player at the plate.  He is matchup proof, having no problem with lefties, crushing 14 homers against them in 2019.  His numbers away from Coors Field are always a question mark, but his OPS in away games is still above league average and his ability to play multiple OF spots also makes him an asset.   

1. German Marquez, RHP

German Marquez is a 25-year-old starter with three years left on his current contract.  He has 41 wins over the last four years.  Marquez has great swing and miss stuff that will translate to any team and any park.  Over the last three seasons Marquez has featured an xFIP of 3.83 or below. His contract has two years left on it with a third year club option, any organization that makes a move for him will get him in his prime years for his second contract.  

Marquez is an asset, he has the most potential of anyone on the Rockies pitching staff.  Teams like the Twins, Yankees, Braves and Rays are all loaded in the farm system and could really use more starting pitching help.  

NCAAB Play of the Day: Gonzaga Bulldogs at Pacific Tigers

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Sometimes the obvious is boring or misleading.  You see a line that is too good to be true and think, no I should stay away.  Fight the urge to be different on Thursday night when the #1 team in the nation the Gonzaga Bulldogs go on the road to face off against the Pacific Tigers.  The Zag’s put a beating on Pacific in their first matchup winning by 46 points in their first matchup of the year. We should see something similar in their second meeting.  

The Zags have won 5 of 6 by 22 points most recently beating and covering versus Pepperdine.  The Zags have so much depth that even if this game gets out of hand early the bench is still strong enough to dominate a terrible Pacific team.  The only chance Pacific has is to slow down the pace and force Gonzaga to defend and not run their offense.  The Tigers are slow ranking 272nd the nation in tempo, the problem is they don’t take advantage of their slow pace with an effective field goal percentage of 44.3%.  They don’t score nearly enough to truly compete. 

Laying 23 points on the road in a conference game is always a scary situation but Mark Few will have his guys ready to go and they will jump out early.  Pacific has no answer for Corey Kispert, Drew Timme or Jalen Suggs.  At each position there is a matchup nightmare.  Take the first half and the game spread.  I am playing the game spread for my play of the day because Pacific can’t score and the Zags can score at an insane rate.  

Play of the day: Gonzaga Bulldogs -23.5 

NCAAB Play of the Day: Seton Hall Pirates at Providence Friars

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A matchup between two of the most confusing teams in college basketball will take place on Wednesday night with the Seton Hall Pirates face off against the Providence Friars.  This Big East showdown could be a potential eliminator for a shot at a birth in the NCAA tournament.  

Seton Hall is coming off of one of the toughest stretches of any team in the country.  Playing Villanova, Creighton and Villanova over their current three game losing streak.  The Pirates have been a predictable team when it comes to SU wins and losses.  They have beaten the teams they should and lost to the teams they should.  With no marquee wins on their resume they cannot afford another let down to a mid-tier Big East foe.  They have done most of their damage offensively this season by penetrating the paint and making things happen.  Currently they rank in the top 25 in offensive efficiency and effective shooting percentage.  They get to the foul line a lot and shoot at a high percentage.  

Providence is coming off of a loss to Georgetown, where they blew a ten point second half lead.  The Friars lean on the two man show of guard David Duke and center Nat Watson, both average double digits and take over a large amount of the usage rate on the offense.  In the first matchup with Seton Hall they were able to combine for 41 points and 21 rebounds.  The Friars are a strange statistical team, they rank 199th in effective field goal percentage, yet they rank top 50 in adjusted offense according to Kenpom.  They have the ability to put the ball in the hoop but they will be without a key component in point guard Jerad Bynum who sliced up the Seton Hall defense last time they played scoring 9 points and adding 8 assists. 

Providence was able to defeat Seton Hall in their first matchup of the year because they shot 9-18 from three and the Friars had Jerad Bynum.  Seton Hall has issues defending the three but without Bynum the Friars won’t be able to penetrate the defense as easiliy which should allow the Pirates guards to stay home on the shooters.  Seton Hall is in need of a win and they will lean on their star Sandro Mamukelishvli.  This game has a -1.5 spread,  I would lean going with the spread but I figure why not just go ML to be safe.  

Play of the day: Seton Hall ML (-130)