College Football Championship Weekend Picks ATS

Pac 12 – Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes -6.5

Does anyone remember when Utah was beat by USC?  That was all the way back on September 20th. The Utes have become a top ten team both offensively and defensively.  Utah QB Tyler Huntley has developed into a huge threat averaging 11.1 yards per attempt which has ranks him 3rd nationally. 

Oregon has to find a way to make stops as their defense vanished against better talent giving up big points to Washington, Washington State and Arizona State.  Oregon will have problems dealing with Huntley and Utah runningback Zack Moss.  

Justin Herbert will be running for his life against the Utah pass rush most notably Bradlee Anae. The Ducks have a verteran QB and a coach that has played these big games before.  I like Utah to win and Oregon to cover on a garbage time TD.

Pick: Utah wins, Oregon covers +6.5

Big 12 – Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners -9

To have a chance at the College Football Playoff both of these teams would need some help.  The Sooners have the best chance based on their placement at the moment. The Sooners have escaped multiple games over the last month and they have to come out and have a dominant performance on Saturday.  

Baylor came out and took care of business the last two weeks dominating Kansas and beating in state rival Texas. The Bears big play ability is scary for the leaky Oklahoma defense. Baylor is top twenty in the nation in yards per play averaging 6.56. Baylor will put up points, it’s whether or not they can force turnovers.  If Baylor is able to force mistakes from the Sooners they have a chance.

Oklahoma will have the services of CeeDee Lamb in the game, something they didn’t have in their prior matchup. That makes a dangerous offense even more explosive.  The Bear’s have only given up a shocking seven touchdowns this season. Those numbers will increase by a lot on Saturday. 

AAC – Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Memphis Tigers -10

I feel like I have seen this before.  Oh it was last week. Memphis was able to topple the Bearcats by ten in their first matchup.  Memphis was able to win but it was Cincinnati was able to cover the 14 point spread. 

The Bearcats may have a wrinkle in their scheme come Saturday as quarterback Demond Ridder may be able to suit up.  While he doesn’t have the arm strength of last Saturday’s starter freshman Ben Bryant, Ridder does bring a much more athleticism.  I look for Cincinnati to utilize both QB’s if available. That means Memphis is not going to see the same game plan they saw the week before. 

If Ridder plays I like the chances for Cincinnati, their defense has what it takes to win this game.

Pick: Cincinnati Upsets Memphis

SEC – Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers -7

THIS IS YOUR MAIN EVENT OF THE EVENING!!! It’s hard for me not to imagine someone saying that as these two teams take the field Saturday.  The entire landscape of the College Football Playoff could be changed by the outcome of this game.   

Joe Burrow has burst onto the scene throwing himself right in the middle of Heisman talk as well as a bright NFL future.  LSU has scored 36 points in all but one game this year. I can list off the Burrow’s statistics but they are pretty easy for anyone to find.  He will outplay the steady Jake Fromm on Saturday, with the help of a strong running game and the red hot Clyde Edwards-Helaire.  

Georgia will be the toughest test defensively for LSU.  The Bulldogs are just behind Clemson with 10.4 points per game this season.  As good as they are they will not be able to contain LSU for a full 60 minutes.  LSU and Georgia have played four similar foes this season with LSU putting up 183 points compared to Georgia’s 94.  This game could be interesting but I see LSU with too much firepower to handle. 

Pick: LSU wins, Georgia Covers

ACC – Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers -28.5

Is Virginia good? Not really.  Beating their rival Virginia Tech got them the chance to play spoiler for Clemson Tigers.  That means they get a chance to play tune up for the only ACC team worth anything this season.  Looking past just the stats Virginia has really only been great at times this season at home and with this being on a neutral site any advantage for Virginia is gone. 

Clemson is better on both sides of the ball. They win and cover with ease.

Pick: Clemson -28.5

Big 10 – Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers +17

There is only one way I see Wisconsin actually winning this game…..sorry  really thought I had something. Wisconsin hasn’t beat Ohio State since 2010. Wisconsin is one dimensional, they will need to use the run game to control the pace and keep the #1 ranked offense in the country off the field.   Ohio State will have all the motivation in the world to pour it on and insure themselves a shot at the #1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.  

I would love to see Wisconsin make this a game, but they had their chance week nine when the weather fit their game plan.  Wisconsin has a puncher’s chance at best.  

Pick: Ohio State -17

NCAAB Picks ATS for Thanksgiving Season Record 25-13-1

NC State Wolfpack vs. Memphis Tigers

A matchup between two teams that are hanging out next to each other on the Kenpom ratings with the Wolfpack at 41 followed directly by the Tigers at 42.  

Memphis has won three straight since losing prized big man James Wiseman, they have done it by working the ball inside. Precious Achiuwa and DJ Jefferies carried the load against Ole Miss putting in 25 each.  Achiuwa and Jefferies will have a premier matchup as the Wolfpack have had their issues guarding the interior, allowing lesser competition to dominate them. 

NC State is lead by a great player in guard Markell Johnson.  Johnson is going to have to deal with some serious pressure from the Memphis defense which will force turnover which will lead to easy points that the Wolfpack won’t be able to make up for. 

Pick: Memphis Tigers ML

Davidson Wildcats vs Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquettes lone loss on the season came at the hands of Wisconsin who was able to control the pace of the game.  Davidson this season has not been able to hold down the pace of anyone, ranking near the bottom of division one in defensive efficiency.  Davidson just gave up 81 and 92 on back to back games against Wake Forest and Nevada, two teams that don’t bring the potential firepower that Marquette will.  

This game will come down to the easy factor of controlling the glass.  Marquette has a clear advantage lead be Theo John on the inside. This one could be close but the Golden Eagles have clear advantages. 

Pick: Marquette -3

NCAAF Picks

Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinal Total: 62.5

Both defenses are not good, ranking 83rd(Syracuse) and 103rd(Louisville) overall. These teams are going to be looking to move the ball and move it quickly.  

Syracuse seemed to find its offensive groove last week against Duke running for 286 yards dominating the Blue Devils and reminding us of what we thought the Orange could be.  The Orange have actually run 80 plays per game during the season which ranks them in the top five nationally. Syracuse has not been able to throw the ball the way that they had hoped but they should be able to move the ball against the Cardinals defense.

Louisville has become an offensive juggernaut over the last three weeks scoring 28, 27 and 34 over the last three weeks against better defensive units then Syracuse.  The Cardinal quarterback Micale Cunningham has averaged 12 yard per pass since the beatdown at the hands of Clemson four weeks ago.  

This game may not be flashy, but I see a lot of turnovers causing great field position that will lead to scores. These teams aren’t playing for much which should benefit the offenses. 

Pick: Over 62.5 

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats +14

The Golden Gophers chance at the College Football Playoff is over.  PJ Fleck will not let that bother his team heading into a matchup with the offensively challenged Northwestern Wildcats. 

Minnesota has the 14th ranked total defense in the country.  Northwestern had problems running away from the UMass Minuteman until the second half.  For those who don’t know UMass is arguably the worst team in all of college football.  

The Wildcats will come out fired up in the first half being its final home game of the season.  They could keep things close…in the first quarter. The Golden Gophers running game will take over and Minnesota will coast to an easy victory.

 Pick: Minnesota Golden Gophers -14

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5 Total: 57

The Nittany Lions hold their fate in their hands.  If they are able to beat Ohio State on Saturday they will completely change the current landscape of the College Football Playoff. While that is nice to think about they have one big hurdle to jump. That hurdle is the dominant Ohio State Buckeyes who have shown no mercy to any team at any point during the season. 

Some will say that Penn State was exposed over the last two weeks.  While they haven’t played their best football they had tough matchups in a ramped up Minnesota team and an underrated Indiana team.  The Nittany Lions will come out focused and ready for a battle. But it won’t matter. Penn State Quarterback Sean Clifford has struggled over his last five games and he will have to deal with the built up frustration of Chase Young returning from a ridiculous two game suspension.  

This game will come down to whether or not Ohio State is able to establish JK Dobbins and the run game allowing for Justin Fields to open up and do Justin Fields things.  The problem for Penn State will be the Buckeyes have to many weapons to hold down. They have better talent and are coached better than Minnesota. Penn State should be able to put up some points but I don’t see them having much of a chance to stop Ohio State.  

Parlay Pick: Ohio State ATS and Over

Other Picks:

Mizzou -4

NCAA Football Picks ATS- Nov. 2

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Wake Forest Demon Deacons -7.5

NC State just allowed Boston College to run all over them.  They get the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday, one of the best offenses in the country.  Wake enters 5thin the country in total offense averaging 523.9 yards per game. 

NC State will start a freshman QB Devin Leary on the road in a situation where they will need to score points.  In Wake’s only loss of the season it took 62 points from Louisville.  It’s hard to believe that NC State will be able to keep up with Wake’s offense.

The Wolfpack have been horrible on the road this season going 0-3 while not covering the spread in any of those games.  Wake’s normal starting QB Jamie Newman is questionable for this game but the offense should still roll. 

Pick Wake Forest -7.5

UNLV Running Rebels at Colorado State Rams -8.5 

Colorado State has turned their season around with two straight victories over Fresno State and New Mexico.  The Rams have done it on the defensive end, stopping teams on third down at a high rate. UNLV has been one of the worst team in the country on third down.  

This is UNLV’s running game versus Colorado State’s passing game.  This should be an exciting and ugly football game with a lot of mistakes. Colorado State is going to build off of their two straight victories, the Rams will destroy the Running Rebels by double digits. 

Pick: Colorado State -8.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers Total: 58

Nebraska should have Adrian Martinez back for this game.  The Cornhuskers broke out offensively against Indiana after three straight tough matchups. The Purdue pass defense can be picked apart, Martinez should be able to dominate this matchup with short to medium passes. A recharged Nebraska offense should be able to take serious advantage of the Boilmakers

Purdue QB Jack Plummer had a bad game against Illinois in tough weather conditions. Plummer was able to throw for over 700 yards in his previous two games versus Maryland and Iowa. Nebraska brings a solid pass rush but has not performed well against good or even mediocre QB play.  This game has a lot of points coming.  

Pick: Over 58

Other Picks:

Florida +6

MLB DFS Breakdown: Sept 17

Pitcher Spotlight- Marco Gonzalez, Seattle Mariners

Marco Gonzalez will be a popular play at his low cost of $6.3K.  There are multiple factors for that.  His low cost will allow you to pay up for secondary pitching options or collect the top bats on the slate.  

Gonzalez’s matchup is a juicy one in Pittsburgh versus a Pirates lineup that will not have two of its key hitters in Starling Marte and Josh Bell. Without the key cogs in the middle of the order completely changes the look of the Pittsburgh lineup.  Placing Erik Gonzalez and Melky Cabrera in their places.  Marco is a cost play versus a watered-down lineup, but his upside is ideal in this situation.

Top Stacks- Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians

Focus: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks will be an under owned potential stack.  The matchup with Caleb Smith is a solid one for the righties.  Smith has given up a .250 ISO versus righties on the season as well as over a +1.30 road ERA.  The focus of the lineup build should be the affordable pieces Christian Walker and Adam Jones at just $3.6K. Add on the perspective power/speed of Ketel Marte at $5.2K and you have a solid mini stack.  

Focus: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland will matchup with Spencer Turnbull but seems to be priced as if they are matching up with a stronger starter.  Mathew Boyd was the original starter for Detroit, DraftKings did not seem to price the change correctly. Getting Franmil Reyes and Roberto Perez for a combined $7.K are bargains if that allow you to complete the three-man stack along with the high-priced Francisco Lindor. 

Sneaky Stack: Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a chance to break the slate against Chandler Shepherd, former Red Sox farm hand that spent his 2019 getting blistered in AAA.  Shepherd has an 8.55xFIP before being cast to Baltimore.  The Toronto hitters are all affordable outside of Bo Bichette and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Combining the power potential of Vlad Jr. and Randall Grichuck seems like the most ideal point per dollar plays. 

P: Marco Gonzalez, Seattle Mariners, $6,300

P: Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs, $11,200

C: Roberto Perez, Cleveland Indians, $3,600

1B: Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,600

2B: Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,200

3B: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays, $3,900

SS: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians, $4,800

OF: Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians, $3,500

OF: Adam Jones, Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,600

OF: Randall Grichuck, Toronto Blue Jays, $4,300

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 3

Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5 at Indiana Hoosiers Total 60

The Buckeyes trampled the Cincinnati Bearcats last week 42-0. Justin Fields and company rolled through a Bearcat’s squad that was able to out muscle the UCLA offense the week before. Ohio State’s offense will always make the headlines while their defense got little recognition for pitching a shutout.  

In come the Indiana Hoosiers who had a scare versus Ball State (34-24) in week one and followed it up with a dismantling of Eastern Illinois (52-0).  It has been a complete team effort with two quarterbacks combining for five touchdowns and to five different receivers.  Their rushing attack is led by Stevie Scott’s 109 yards over the first two games.  

Ohio State has a 24-0-1 record against Indiana over their last 25 meetings.  They have also went 5-1 in their last six road games in September. 17.5 seems like a large number of the road against a Big Ten team but I see Indiana having trouble moving the ball against the stout Ohio State defense.  

Pick: Ohio State -17.5, Under 60

USC Trojans -4.5 at BYU Cougars, Total 55.5

USC is entering this game fresh off a beatdown of Stanford, (45-20) putting them in the top 25.  Freshman Kedon Slovis came out of nowhere to lead an offensive explosion.  USC has a clear advantage in talent all over the field including a very young and talented defense, the Trojans top eight tacklers are all underclassman.  While the inexperience hurt them last year, it is paying off early in 2019.  

While USC has the talent, BYU is coming off of an inspiring victory of their own against Tennessee.  The Cougars faced two power five schools in their first two games, holding both Tennesee and Utah to just 30% conversions on third down.  BYU has the ability to deflate the freshman QB who will be facing his first road test. This smells like a trap for USC.

Pick: BYU +4.5

Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights -9.5 

Stanford just blew a 17-3 lead versus a freshman quarterback in a division game.  They now get to face a UCF team that seems to have a never-ending chip on their shoulder. Stanford is limping on the offensive end and they will need every bit of it against UCF.  Stanford QB Davis Mills has only thrown for 318 total yards over their first two games, if they fall down early, they don’t have the offense to overcome.  

The Cardinal are giving up 351 yards per game over their first two as well as 7 touchdowns.  Those two teams don’t bring the same fire power as the Knights.  UCF should win this by two touchdowns.

Pick: UCF -9.5

Oklahoma Sooners -23.5 at UCLA Bruins

UCLA can’t score, even in a Chip Kelly system.  Oklahoma scores like they are playing intramural flag football with no refs.  Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley seem to have a great repartee in this offense which could lead to bigger things for Hurts in the long run. UCLA has name recognition and that’s about it right now.  This game is to easy, not much more analyses needed. 

Sooners roll by four touchdowns

Pick: Oklahoma -23.5

Other Picks:

Florida/Kentucky Under 47.5

Colorado State +10

Maryland -7 

NCAA Football Week Two Picks ATS

Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes -16.5, Total: 55.5

I am one of the many that stopped watching the Buckeyes opening contest against Florida Atlantic after they jumped out to a 28-0 first quarter lead.  The cover seemed like a forgone conclusion, unfortunately for Ohio State backers the Buckeyes were not able to hold the cover putting a stop to the offense

Justin Fields looked like the real deal accounting for five touchdowns in his first start, he will have a stiffer challenge coming versus a Cincinnati frontline that made life miserable for UCLA.  Former Ohio State player, now Head Coach of Cincinnati Luke Fickell will have a veteran team that will not be intimidated by the name on the jersey.  Fickell has a tough defense that will be able to stop the run early and make a game of it.  

16.5 seems like the right gap due to the immense level of talent on Ohio State but the Bearcats bring a stout defense as well as a sharp veteran passer in Desmond Ridder.  This game will be a dog fight early, but Ohio States overall talent will win out.  I like Cincinnati to cover by my favorite play is the under. 

 Under 55.5, Cincinnati +16.5

Syracuse Orange at Maryland Terrapins -2, Total: 57.5

Syracuse’s offense seemed out of sync against the lowly Liberty Flames.  Putting up just 24 points against the Flames defense.  Syracuse’s new starting quarterback Tommy DeVito struggle on the road. He didn’t hit half of his passes, couldn’t do much down the field, and ended up throwing two picks. Syracuse will have a tough challenge against the stout Maryland defensive front. Maryland is coming off of domination of Howard winning 79-0 in week one while racking up eight sacks. 

Maryland will be able to keep the Syracuse defensive front at bay with their rushing attack.  The Terps were dominate on the ground with 317 rushing yards.  This game will be a struggle to find out which offense can find its flow first.  With Maryland at home and the early struggles of DeVito Syracuse can be in for a tough game. 

Pick: Maryland -2, Under 57.5

West Virginia Mountaineers at Missouri Tigers, -14, Total: 62.5

The Missouri Tigers shockingly took a loss as 17-point favorites against Wyoming.  Mizzou couldn’t hold onto the ball in their defeat with three fumbles, losing two of them.  

The Tigers defense was also a huge problem giving up over 297 yards on the ground. 

The Tigers were still solid on offense with Kelly Bryant throwing for over 400 yards and two touchdowns. Mizzou was the dark horse to win the SEC East but now will have to go back to the drawing board.  A matchup with the rebuilding West Virginia Moutaineers at home should be just what the doctor ordered.  West Virginia is coming off of a narrow victory versus respectable FCS James Madison.  Mizzou should be able to run their offense efficiently against the Mountaineers defense.  Look for the Tigers to jump out to a lead early and then step on the neck of their Big 12 foe.  

Pick: Mizzou -14, Over 62.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers -4 at Colorado Buffaloes, Total: 64.5

This line has made an interesting move.  Opening at -7 in favor of the Cornhuskers has moved all the way down to -4.  This is most likely due to the subpar performance from Nebraska in week one versus South Alabama.  There is a reason that teams schedule a lower level team early in the season, they can work out the kinks in the offense.  The Nebraska defense took a nice step forward as the game went on causing five turnovers and sacking the QB four times.  

Colorado was impressive against the powerful offense of Colorado State in week one, with a 21-point victory. First year head coach Mel Tucker was quick to point out the flaws from the Colorado defense though as they gave up 505 total yards along with 27 first downs.  The Buff’s will have a step up in competition versus Nebraska.  Scott Frost’s offense will find a way to turn it around in this matchup.  With the line continuing to fall you can get the Cornhuskers at a value.  

Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers -4, WAY OVER

MLB DFS August 9 Attack Edwin

Pitcher Spotlight- Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs

Darvish in a pitcher friendly ballpark at one point would have been a scary concept.  This Yu Darvish has turned his season around, putting up twenty points in 4 of 5 of his last five games.  His most recent start against Cincinnati Darvish went six innings, struck out seven, giving up just two hits.  

The Reds have a watered-down lineup after moving Yasiel Puig and Scooter Gennett.  They have officially entered into a rebuild mood around their pitching.  Sporting a top three rotation that can be one of the tops in the league entering 2020 is not going to help their offense.  They sport a 23.5% strikeout rate over their last 10 games.  Darvish has a great matchup and his cost is just outside of the top on the slate leaving you wiggle room for upper level hitters. 

Potential Stacks- Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres, Houston Astros

It’s hard to ignore the Kansas City Royals.  They have multiple low-priced power options that can help you fill up your lineups.  They get a matchup with the infamous Edwin Jackson. Jackson enters this matchup giving up a little over three homers per game during his time with the Toronto Blue Jays.  Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier and Alex Gordon are all plays that make sense for a middle of the order stack.  Keeping my eye on Ryan O’Hearn at just 2.8K can be a great value for someone trying to play Walker Buehler.  

It’s simple, Edwin Jackson is a powderkeg and the low cost of the Kansas City Bats makes a lot of sense. 

Potential one off plays-

Justin Upton- Los Angeles Angels

Most will look to Mike Trout in the Angels matchup with Brian Johnson.  I would prefer the cost of Justin Upton who will most likely be batting cleanup holds a career .365 wOBA against lefties. Johnson only strikes out 16% of batters.  Upton at 3.8K is a value with monstorous upside. 

Xander Bogaerts- Boston Red Sox

Bogaerts is not cheap so this as a one off has to be well planned out.  Angels starter Jaime Barria gives up a lot of hard contact, 43.4% to right handed hitters.  Xander excels at home with a .680 slugging percentage in Fenway.

Aaron Judge- New York Yankees

Aaron Judge is way to cheap. He’s struggling right now but with his potential power against Sean Reid-Foley, worth the shot.

P: Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs, $9,200

P: Drew Smyly, Philadelphia Phillies, $5,800

C: Kyle Higashioka, New York Yankees, $3,500

1B: Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros, $5,000

2B: Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals, $4,500

3B: Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals, $4,400

SS: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox, $5,000

OF: Jorge Solar, Kansas City Royals, $4,600

OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees, $4,200

OF: Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals, $3,800

Five Most Disappointing Players of 2019- MLB

Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics

It was only a season ago when Khris Davis finished 8thin the AL MVP voting.  Mashing 48 homers Davis became the power bat in an emerging lineup.  The cog in a machine of a soon to be great offense in Oakland.  The specious Coliseum was no match for his raw power. The Athletics were so inspired by his season that they signed him to a two-year extension worth over $33 million. When they did this, I openly tweeted that Oakland just got a steal.  A young player that has been averaging 40 homers for multiple years for a discount as well as not having to go through the trouble of dealing with the problem of free agency.

The Athletics have overcome a slow start despite Davis’s slash line of .224/.290/.390.  Davis has been a complete disaster with a wRC+ 50 points behind his career average. The Athletics have been lucky to have Ramon Laureano become an offensive force.

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were not coming into this year looking to contend. Aaron Sanchez was supposed to be a player they could look upon to bring back some valuable pieces to help the rebuild along with their already existing young core.  Sanchez came out of the gates looking like a guy that would be moved to a contender in no time, starting out the year with a 3-1 record with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 15.3% walk rate, 2.32 ERA, 5.45 SIERA, and 0.3 fWAR in 31 innings. Then the wheels fell off Sanchez. Sanchez currently leads the league with 14 losses while sporting a 5.09 xFIP.  

Sanchez went from potential trade chip to a potential DFA in less than two months.  

Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets

Thor was supposed to help the Mets compete for an NL East crown in 2019, but that’s not the season Noah Syndergaard of the Mets have gotten.  Not to say Syndergaard has been terrible but a 4.33 ERA was not what the Mets were looking for.  They wanted to see steps in the right direction similarly to Jacob DeGrom. That has not been the case for Syndergaard.  Statistics are similar but the biggest problem for him has been batting average against with runners in scoring position. His xFIP has went up by an entire run in the 2019 season.  

Syndergaard has now been forced to deal with the rumors that he is available in trade scenarios.  The distraction has been a problem for the team along with the lack of direction for the team.

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

The Rockies were everyone’s darling team last season.  Kyle Freeland was the leader of a pitching staff that stepped up to make them a legitimate contender.  Freeland entered the season looking to repeat his dominance, that is not how the season has gone.  Freeland, 26, has found himself in the midst of a major regression 2-6 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 12 starts before being farmed out.

The minors haven’t seemed to help Freeland find what he was missing as the second half hasn’t changed much. With Freeland’s decline the Rockies have declined falling further out of contention as the summer goes on. Freeland’s most baffling number is the power he has given up.  Last year he posted an impressive .76 homeruns per nine.  That number has ballooned to a 2.09.  In a place like Colorado there is no wiggle room for mistakes and Freeland has been making a lot of them.  The Rockies are still within striking distance of a Wild Card Spot, they will need Freeland to step up and be some form of his 2018 self.

Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals believed that they had the perfect combination at the top of their lineup with Matt Carpenter, coming off of a career season in 2018, followed by newly acquired 

Paul Goldschmidt.  The plan was to have them bat one and two in front of power bat Marcel Ozuna.  Carpenter has looked lost at the plate for the entire season, his total WRC+ has dropped from a 138 in 2018 to an 86 in 2019.  His on-base percentage is down 50 points compared to last season.  Carpenter’s struggles attributed to the slow start of the Cardinals offense. 

Injuries have played a role in Carpenter’s struggles, but an overall lack of confidence seems to be the most telling signs.  His swing and miss rate has gone up as well as his pitch recognition.  The Cardinals have found a way to play through his struggles and still compete but a return to form of their 2018 MVP candidate would be huge for the stretch run.  It is not looking likely though as Carpenter’s most recent numbers in the minors have not shown that he is major league ready.  The Cardinal need his production to be a legit contender.