NCAA Basketball

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes: Slower pace favors the Badgers

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A classic matchup of Big Ten rivals will take place in Columbus Thrusday night when the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes.  Both teams find themselves towards the bottom the Big Ten and both are desperate for a win 

Wisconsin enters on a three game losing streak, shockingly failing to cover the spread in their last ten games.  The decline of the Badgers began when star forward Tyler Wahl suffered an injury; losses to Northwestern and Maryland without Wahl showed that the Badgers have depth issues behind their starting lineup. Wahl returned to the lineup last Saturday versus Illinois but was only able to play 19 minutes in the loss.  To pull off the upset Wisconsin has to find a way to make some shots, as a team they are shooting just 42% from inside the arc, relying heavily on the three point shot. Ohio State defends the three well, but does have a tendency to give open looks in their losses.  The return of Wahl should force more double teams in the post opening up shots for Chucky Hepburn and company from the outside.

Ohio State will have the best player on the court in Brice Sensabaugh, he leads an offense that is 3rd in the Big Ten in scoring, averaging 76 ppg.  The Buckeyes have thrived in high scoring games, if they are allowed to run their offense at their pace they control the ball.  Wins over teams like Iowa, Cincinnati and Texas Tech were all games in the 80’s were they could run their offense without resistance.  Sensabaugh controls the offense, but he also has a steady post presence in Zed Key.  Key should be able to control the post against a Wisconsin team that is terrible on the glass.  

Ohio State has the superior offense but they will be forced into a grind it out affair with a Wisconsin team that is not going to allow Sensabaugh to control the pace.  The Badgers slow pace will keep this a low scoring affair. The Badgers are due for some positive regression. The return of a healthy Tyler Wahl will help the offense return to form.  Ohio State has statistically defended the three well but they do tend to allow open shots.  If Wisconsin hits a few shots it will open up the middle for Wahl and company to work inside.  This number is too high for a conference game with a fully healthy Badger team.  I am rollng with Wisconsin.

Pick: Wisconsin +7

Providence vs. Xavier: Rebounding makes the difference

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Providence Friars at Xavier Musketeers

The battle for the top of the Big East is taking place Wednesday night when the Providnece Friars head to Ohip to take on the Xavier Musketeers.

Providence has won three straight taking down Depaul, Butler and most recently a fully healthy Villanova squad.  Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins has led the way averaging 16 points and 9 rebounds per game. The Friars rely on controlling the glass to generate a lot of their offense, they rank 7th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and top 15 in the nation in rebounds per game. Their guards crash the glass as well as any big men in the country, Devin Carter especially is a problem for opposing defenses with his ability and athleticism on the offensive glass.  Look for Jared Bynum to punish the poor 3pt defense of the Muskteers, they rank 297th in the country in 3pt defense.

Xavier suffered its first loss in over a month being dominated on the road against Creighton.  The game was not the biggest loss for the Musketeers, Senior forward Zach Freemantle will miss four weeks with a foot injury.  The loss of Freemantle will be a big problem for the Muskateers who will have to deal with a very good rebounding Friars team. Xavier will look to push the pace with Colby Jones and Souley Boum.  They will push the pace and look to jump on the Friars early to take advantage of one of the best home courts in all of college basketball. 

This game is going to be a shootout between two very efficient offenses.  Xavier will have the home court advantage which should help them in dictating the pace.  I think the loss of Freemantle is a big deal, losing your leading rebounder against a team like Providence that crashes the glass as well as anyone in the country is going to make it hard for the Muskateers to execute their game plan.  Providence has a huge advantage in this one without Freemantle, I think that allows them to take this game.  I’m taking Friars to cover and this goes over the total because of both teams’ great offensive skill sets.

Pick: Over 152, Xavier +3.5

Sweet Sixteen Bets

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St. Peter’s Peacocks vs. Purdue Boilermakers

The Peacocks are a great story.  They beat Kentucky, they beat Murray State but they will not beat Purdue.  The Boilermakers are loaded including star guard Jaden Ivey,7’ 4” Zach Edey, forward Trevion Williams and underrated role players Eric Hunter, Mason Gillis and Stefan Stefanovic.  The Peacocks will not have an answer for the size of Edey, even if the Peacocks star KC NDefo is able to slow down Jaden Ivey they won’t be able to stop the post game of the Boilermakers.

The St. Peters offense has been playing above their level over the last two games, but ultimately they are a below average offense and they foul a lot on the defensive end.  We know after Sunday that Purdue knows how to get to the line. They will do that a lot and they will dominate the interior.  This fun is over for St. Peters, Purdue will win by twenty.

Pick: Purdue Boilermakers  -12.5

Michigan Wolverines vs. Villanova Wildcats

Michigan was left for dead after their 4-3 start.  If it wasn’t for their victories within conference the Wolverines may be playing in the NIT. Nevertheless the Wolverines find themselves in the Sweet 16 led by their All-American Hunter Dickinson. His 27 points and 11 rebounds led the charge in the upset versus Tennessee in the second round, his ability to control the paint while being able to shoot the three when needed makes him a matchup nightmare. 

Villanova has the experience needed to go all the way.  Collin Gillespie and company have been efficient on offense in week one of the tournament and should be able to take advantage of the inconsistent defense of Michigan. The Wolverines rank 170th in effective field goal percentage during the regular season, the Wildcat offense will try to slow them down and take advantage of open shots.  

Michigan has top ten talent all through the roster. They have picked up their intensity on the defensive end especially holding down three point shooters.  The Wolverines size will be a problem for Nova, they will not be able to get inside and that will cause them problems trying to connect from deep.  Nova needs the three to drop consistently because Michigan will be able to control the boards with Dickinson and Freshman Moussa Diabete. The length and advantage on the glass will allow Michigan to keep this close.  I would still take the points but I can see them pulling out the outright upset.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines +5

Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats

Elite defense vs. elite offense.  Quick pace vs slow pace.  The matchup between Houstona and Arizona is a complete mismatch of styles. 

 The Houston Cougars will look to grind it out and limit possessions. They have the 338th ranked tempo in all of college basketball.  Despite their slow pace they are still a very efficient offense, ranking 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Houston is able to put themselves in great position to get the shot they want or at the very least grind down a defense which they take advantage of on the offensive glass.  Houston is merciless on the glass, snagging offensive rebounds on 37% of possessions. This is going to be a problem for Arizona, coming off of a game where TCU was able to dominate the glass and put a scare into the #1 seed in the South.  

Arizona found a way to get by TCU, whether it was a bad call or not the Wildcats still found a way to win behind their star Bennidict Mathurin and Cristain Koloko.  The Wildcats are deep, they have multiple weapons that come off the bench and produce, if they can get the ball moving they will be able to wear out Houston. The key will be to make sure they clean up the defensive glass. When they get the ball they need to let Mathurin loose 

The Houston defense has not  given up over 68 points just once in their last ten games. They have not had to put up the numbers on the offensive end to keep up with teams. They rely too much on dominating the offensive glass.  Arizona has the length and athletes to neutralize Houston’s biggest asset. 

Pick: Arizona ML

Bid Stealers- Teams that can break the bubble

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ACC: Virginia Tech Hokies

The ACC is having a down year.  With likely only Duke being a complete lock for the tournament, every win is important.  Virginia Tech is currently 10-8 in conference and an unimpressive 18-11 overall.  Of those 18 victories none of them are quad 1 wins. The best win of the season was at home against Notre Dame.  

Virginia Tech will enter the ACC tournament, playing for their tournament lives.  With the ACC not having the depth of previous seasons, the Hokies could play their way into the tournament.  Tech features one of the best defensive teams in the country, they rank 17th in the country in points against giving up just 61 ppg.  They are loaded with veteran players, starting three seniors and two juniors and a coach who knows how to win big games in Mike Young.  Virginia Tech is not an offensive juggernaut, they are however very efficient on the offensive end.  They are 22nd in the nation in shooting efficiency, they are led by Kevin Aluma, a Senior that can score from the inside or mid range.  Along with Aluma, they feature some sharp shooting guards Storm Murphy and Hunter Catoor.

Virginia Tech as a team shooting 39% from deep and play hard nosed defense.  Their record doesn’t show how good they are, they could easily make a run in the ACC tournament knocking another bubble team out of the big dance.

Big East: St. John’s Red Storm

The Big East was extremely underrated heading into the season.  Most thought it was just Villanova or nobody, instead the Big East has been a breeding ground for tournament sleepers. Mike Anderson’s fast paced offensive attack could help the St. John’s Red Storm find themselves playing deep into March. 

The Red Storm play at a pace that is hard to match.  Led by Julian Champagnie who is averaging 23 ppg in Big East play, St. Johns can score with any team in the conference.  They have already proven they can score against great defensive competition, putting up 84 against Seton Hall, 86 against Xavier and 94 against Butler. They lead the conference averaging 84 ppg, with a healthy Posh Alexander running the show the Red Storm can beat you in multiple ways. If they can carry their offense into the tournament they are going to be a problem for the opposition and anyone sitting on the bubble.  

A-10: SLU Billikens

The Atlantic 10 will likely get at least two teams in the tourney.  Davidson is a near lock, but VCU, Dayton and St Bonaventrue are knocking on the door, very quietly.  With Davidson being a near lock, them losing in the A-10 tournament could be the downfall for a bubble squad needing the extra spot.  In steps the St. Louis Billikens, Travis Ford’s Bills lost their best player before the season even tipped off but they still have put together a solid resume that while not tournament worthy shows that they can be very dangerous in a single elimination tournament.  Much like the Red Storm SLU has set themselves a part on the offensive end, averaging a conference best 77 ppg.  PG, Yuri Collins has become a conference player of the year candidate and likely will be a pre-season player of the year candidate in his junior  year.  Collins is an assist machine, averaging 8 per game on the season, he leads an offense that has multiple tools to thrash opposing defenses. 

St. Louis had some bad losses, but played well against power house Auburn and beat Boston College and MTN West standout Boise State.  The Bills are not great on defense but it isnt a liability.  They rank middle of the pack in most categories and have a great rim protector in Francis Okoro controlling the paint.  The Bills offense and ability to protect the rim without fouling will put them in great position to potentially win the A-10 tournament that outside of Davidson has not been elite teams. 

CBB Play of the Day: Feb 17 2022

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Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos

I love the Mountain West.  Every night is unpredictable.  Any team can lose to anyone.  Most recently New Mexico pulled off the upset over Wyoming, who at the time was the top of the conference.  That same New Mexico team will host the preseason favorite Colorado State Rams . 

New Mexico has been elite against the spread this season with a 15-6-2 record, 9-2-2 at home.  The Lobos are led by their trio of guards, Jamal Mashburn Jr, Jaelen House and KJ Jenkins, all average double digits, they combined for 48 points in the first matchup at Colorado State..  The Lobos like to move fast, ranking 17th in tempo nationally.  They utilize their three dynamic guards to keep opposing defenses on their heels.  They will look to force Colorado State to play their game.  

Colorado St.  does a lot right.  They are an efficient offenseinside and outside.  They do however have a problem adjusting to the flow of the game when things are not going their way.  The speed of the Lobos will make it tough for Colorado State to get into a rhythm.  In their first meeting back in January the Lobos lost by six, mostly due to the fact that the Rams shot 24 more free throws than the opposition.  The New Mexico home court advantage should help to balance out the attempts at the charity stripe.  

New Mexico is great at home and they should be able to keep this one close.  The outright upset will be tough but they have NBA level guards that will be a tough matchup for Colorado State.  The Lobos don’t have an answer for David Roddy, he will be a problem, but New Mexico at home getting this many points is too hard to pass up.

Pick: New Mexico +7

CBB Play of the Day Feb. 16, 2022

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Jacksonville has quietly been the best ATS team in college hoops, they are currently  17-4 ATS on the season including covering  six straight games in conference. Jacksonville is coming off of a huge victory of ASUN leader Liberty, putting them right into contention for the top of the conference.  The Dolphins dominate on the defensive end giving up just 59 ppg, allowing teams to shoot just 47% on the season. When Jacksonville needs offense they turn to Kevion Nolan, the redshirt junior that averages 14 ppg.  

The Hatters have not had a great season, they are at the bottom of the ASUN with a 11-14 overall record, they are however 4-1 ATS in their last five.  The question will be, how does Stetson score against the Jacksonville defense?  The Hatters 70 ppg on the season, while shooting just 42.4% from the field.  They are the 304th ranked team in offensive efficiency, in their previous matchup with Jacksonville the Hatters were only able to put up 50 points, losing by 7.  Jacksonville covered the four point spread in that game and should be able to do the same in their second meeting.  

Both of these teams can struggle to score. Jacksonville has a major advantage on the boards and they are much better at shooting the three, if this game is close down the stretch they also have an advantage from the charity stripe.  Stetson is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country (Jacksonville isn’t much better).  In the end it will be the team with the better upside on the offensive end that wins this game and that is the Dolphins.

Pick: Jacksonville Dolphins -2

CBB Play of Day- Feb 4

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Western Carolina Catamounts at VMI Keydets

VMI has been one of the better offenses in college basketball all season. They average 76 ppg, they are 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in effective field goal percentage (55%), 24th in 3-pt percentage 37%.  They are a well oiled machine on the offensive end.  Their offense has gotten them victories over Southern League power houses Furman and Wofford.  They traveled to ACC power Wake Forest, got a cover and challenged a very good Demon Deacon team. The Keydets like to play fast and they have three players that average double digits led by big man Jake Stevens, averaging 18 per game. 

Western Carolina ended their five game losing streak in their last game versus ETSU.  The Catamounts rely on shooting the three to create their offense.  They are #2 in the country in 3PA per game but they are outside of the top 250 in 3-point percentage. There will not be many second chances for the Catamounts as VMI is very good at cleaning up the glass on the defensive end.  If they are not hitting their shots their offense will not be able to keep up with a VMI team that will be able to do whatever they want. 

Both of these teams are terrible on the defensive end.  The difference is, VMI is an elite level team on the offensive end.  The Catamounts will not have an answer for the uptempo attack VMI is going to bring to them. Statistically Western Carolinais one of the worst defenses in the country.  They are going up against one of the best offenses in the country. While it’s hard to trust the defense of VMI, I am going to bank on the offense being too much to handle on the road.  

Pick: VMI -11

Betting every Sweet 16 Game

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Oregon State Beavers vs Loyola-Chicago Ramblers -6.5, 125.5

Oregon State lost to Portland this year.  This was not the Trailblazers, it was the team that went 0-11 in the West Coast Conference.  They now find themselves in the sweet 16 facing off against the Missouri Valley Conference champs, the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers.  

The fact that they busted brackets is not the only thing these two teams have in common.  They both play extremely tight defense and move the ball at their own pace, which is slow.  This game has first to 60 wins written all over it.  The Ramblers were able to run whatever they wanted on offense against the Illini, that won’t be the case on Saturday.  The Beavers have imposed their will on everyone since the start of the Pac12 tournament. 

The Beavers can rely on Ethan Thompson to get points and they have a solid point guard that will keep them in the game down the stretch, oh and they are the 2nd  best free throw shooting team left in the tournament (that is huge).  The Rambler’s are better on the offensive end which should get them the win, but the Beavers are too hot, they keep this close. 

Pick: Oregon State +6.5, Under 125.5

Villanova Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears -6.5, 141

I am not going to pretend that I didn’t pick North Texas to upset Villanova. I thought the loss of Colin Gillispie was going to be a problem against the defense of North Texas, Nova came out like they were playing NBA Jam on fire mode. They have been solid from deep all year, shooting 35%, if they can continue to hit shots they can keep it competitive.  Their offense running through Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is not going to be the problem, their effective field goal percentage against being outside of the top 200 is going to be the black sharpie on their bracket.  

The Baylor Bears showed us the team we all enjoyed before their covid pause.  The three headed monster Jared Butler, Macio Teague and Davion Mitchell will be tough for Villanova to cover.  Also there is this guy that had his coming out party in the round of 32, his name is Mathew Mayer.  Mayer had 17 points against Wisconsin, at 6-9, shooting 45 percent from three, he is showing the world why he is a darkhorse NBA prospect.  Also his hair is awesome. It’s intimidating.

Nova had some nice performances against Winthrop and North Texas, but let’s be real here Winthrop and North Texas were double digit seeds for a reason.  Baylor has too much speed and will pressure the ball and cause turnovers.  With no Gillispie I can’t see Villanova controlling anything in this one. 

Pick: Baylor Bears -6.5

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. Arkansas Razorbacks -11.5, 159

Cinderella stories are great, but stories have endings.  This ending may come on Saturday but damn it should be pretty entertaining. The Golden Eagles can bring it on the offensive end, they are one of the fastests teams in the country ranking 52 in tempo, they are 12th in 3pt percentage and 80th in offensive efficiency. 

These two teams have met before and they were able to combine for 162 points, that was with a sluggish start from Arkansas.  Both of these teams want to play fast, this one will be uptempo and efficient on the offensive end.  Two NBA prospects in Moses Moody and Max Abmas will match up in a game that will be fun to watch.  This one is going to be closer than most think.  The Razorbacks have gotten off to a few slow starts so far in the tournament, if they do that again against the Golden Eagles they can find it tough to come back due to the firepower they will have against them. 

There will be points.  After the sluggish affair we will see between Loyola and Oregon State. We will need this.

Pick: Over 159, Oral Roberts +11.5

Syracuse Orange vs. Houston Cougars -6, 140

The Houston Cougars slipped by Rutgers while Syracuse did what Syracuse does, win in March.  The Cougars could not have gotten a better matchup, they are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, averaging an offensive rebound 39% of the time.  The zone defense is susceptible to the offensive rebound.  

The Syracuse Orange have gotten hot at the right time.  The coach’s kid, Buddy Boeheim has led the way averaging 26 ppg over the last six games.  He has had help from Illinois transfer Alan Griffin who is averaging 13 ppg and Quincy Guerrier averaging 13.9.

Their hot shooting has created an illusion that they have a chance to move on to the elite 8.  Their history and their zone gimmick will be exposed by a Houston team that specializes in shooting down opposing shooters.  The Cougars are the best in college basketball against opposing team shooting percentages.  The defense and rebounding that Houston brings to the table is going to overcome an overrated Orange team. 

Pick: Houston Cougars -6

Florida State Seminoles vs Michigan Wolverines -3, 144

The Seminoles and the Wolverines are seem to be the only teams that got the memo of how brackets are supposed to play out.  Both have played to their expectations, Michigan even doing it without their star Isaiah Livers.  The Wolverines will need to slow the pace to and work inside Hunter Dickinson on offense while pressuring the Seminoles ball handlers on defense.  

Florida State has one big weakness, they can be loose with the ball ranking 251st in the nation in turnover percentage.  Michigan’s defense is not one that causes a lot of turnovers, they thrive more on playing man to many and have Dickinson inside to be their to clean up any messes.  

With Isiah Livers I would be all over Michigan covering this spread, without him I can’t see how the Wolverines consistently score against a very good Florida State defensive unit.  The Seminoles have more options on offense and should get this win.  

Pick: Florida State ML, Under 144

Creighton Bluejays vs Gonzaga Bulldogs -13, 158

The Bluejays got a herculaneum effort from their star Marcus Zagarowski in their win over Ohio in the round of 32.  Creighton controlled the game from start to finish, something that they would like to do against the juggernaut Gonzaga Bulldogs.  The problem for Creighton will face is that Gonzaga has the ability to play at any tempo.  They can slow you down by feeding Drew Timme in the post or speed you up by letting Jalen Suggs run the break, and of course there is Cory Kispert to deal with. The Zags are second in the nation in scoring and first in the nation in field goal percentage. 

Creighton has problems with teams that can score in the paint.  Go watch their two losses to Georgetown this season and you can see they have no answer for interior scoring.  Drew Timme is going to force a double team which will leave one of the litany of talented scorers with no coverage for easy buckets.  Creighton will keep in close early, but their defense in the paint and struggles at the free throw line will allow the nation’s only undefeated team to stay that way and cover the number. 

Pick: Gonzaga -13

Oregon Ducks vs USC Trojans -2.5, 139.5

This game seems familiar.  We have seen it play out a few times over the years.  This season they met one time and it was a buttkicking by the USC Trojans 72-58.  The usual suspect was not the lead contributor, Evan Mobley played a subpar game by his standards, scoring just 11 points.  The Trojans were led by guards Tahj Eddy (24pts) and Drew Peterson (15 points, 11 rebounds).  They will need similar contributions in order to take down an Oregon team that flashed some of its potential explosiveness against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the second round.  

The Ducks have the talent to compete with a skilled USC team that showed some of their dominance in a route of Kansas.  Chris Duarte is a stud that should be on NBA radar as the draft approaches, his shot making ability will have to be on par as USC has a clear advantage in the paint.  The USC defense has to control the pace. Iowa allowed Oregon to move quickly  and not allow the defense to get set.  USC has to control the glass, if they do they control this game.  

Pick: USC -2.5 

UCLA Bruins vs. Alabama Crimson Tide – 6, 145.5

If this game was going on two weeks ago the Crimson Tide would be close to a double digit favorite against the Bruins.  The Pac12 convinced bookmakers that they are to be taken seriously with four teams competing in the sweet sixteen.  The Bruins thrive on controlling the pace and making it a grind.  They rarely turn the ball over and have made the most of their offensive possessions in their three games so far in the tournament.  

The Crimson Tide will look to impose their will and highlight their elite athletes. John Petty, Jordan Shackelford, Herb Jones, Javon Quinerly can all take over a game.  Their weapons were on full display in their domination of the Maryland Terrapins.  Bama put up 96 points against a defense that was only giving up 65 points per game.  They don’t just do it on offense, they can disrupt the flow of the game on the defensive end.

Pick: Alabama -6, Under 145.5

NCAA Tournament: West Regional Breakdown

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Top Four Seeds

  1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
  2. Iowa Hawkeyes
  3. Kansas Jayhawks
  4. Virginia Cavaliers

“Gonzaga hasn’t been tested in weeks.” That’s the take everyone loves to bring up when they talk about the Gonzaga Bulldogs.  The difference between this team and the ones of the past is Jalen Suggs.  The Zags have not had an NBA level talent like him on the roster in the last ten years.  Suggs, along with Kispert, Timme and the rest of the roster are primed for domination and I think they have the matchups to make a long run very possible.  This team was able to beat Kansas, Iowa, Virginia and West Virginia before beginning their dominant run in the West Coast Conference.  This team has only gotten better and will show it on a run to the final four. 

The 2nd seeded Iowa Hawkeyes have their sights set on a run led by Luka Garza, the biggest issue for Iowa will be on the defensive front and that will be exposed in the second round when they have the potential of meeting up with Chris Duarte and the Oregon Ducks.  Oregon will not have an answer for Garza but Oregon brings a real challenge at every other position.  Can Fran McCafferey get his guys ready for upper level offensive units?  He hasn’t proven to do it yet.

The Kansas Jayhawks may have the biggest question mark of the entire bracket.  They are dealing with a recent Covid stoppage that affected their chances to win the Big12 tournament.  The Jayhawks appeared to have found their groove towards the end of  the conference campaign, winning against powerhouse Baylor.   They followed it up with a lackluster performance against UTEP in a randomly scheduled game.  Kansas has the talent to make easy work of Eastern Washington but then they run into the USC Trojans barring an upset and that will be a problem for the Jayhawks.  The length of the Trojans will be trouble for Kansas, they will have to find a way to stop dominant big man Evan Mobley and that is a question that they will not have an answer for.  

Virginia is dealing with a similar issue that Kansas is dealing with.  Coming off of a COVID pause and a season that did not turn out the way they had hoped, the Cavaliers enter a matchup with one of the hottest teams in the country the Ohio Bobcats.  The Bobcats ran through the MAC tournament stomping Buffalo in the final.  The Bobcats have one of the best players in the country in Jason Preston.  Preston has the ability to break down any defense including the vaunted Virginia packline defense.  

First Round Upsets

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos over Creighton Bluejays

The Gauchos come from a conference that doesn’t get much hype unless you are a late night degenerate gambler much like myself.  They however are playing some of the best basketball in the country and could bring some problems to the Creighton Bluejays.  The Gauchos are 56th in the nation in effective shooting percentage as well as one of the most consistent offensive units in basketball.  They are meeting a similar offensive unit led by Marcus Zagarowski.  The Bluejays are similar to the Gauchos with one of the most effective shooting percentages in college hoops. 

The Bluejays were exposed by Georgetown in the Big East final, they have a problem on the boards and a problem at the free throw line. Creighton gives up nine offensive boards per game ranking 242nd in the nation and they are 329th in free throw percentage.  Both of these factors will give you problems in the tournament.

Ohio Bobcats over Virginia Cavaliers

I already explained this.  Jason Preston will be a problem for every team in the tournament if he is healthy.  This is not the same Cavalier team that won the tournament in 2019.

Teams that can make a run- USC Trojans

The Trojans come out of the not so vaunted Pac 12 so some of their ability is getting overlooked.  Everyone has heard of Evan Mobley, likely a top five pick in the NBA draft.  He alone is good enough to get them at least one victory in the NCAA tournament.  If you look at the draw that USC got they should have a few favorable matchups.  They likely will match up with the Kansas Jayhawks that will have problems dealing with the length that USC brings to the table.  The Trojans have the ability to shut down any offense and Kansas will have trouble doing anything.  

If they get by Kansas a potential matchup with Iowa is a juicy spot for all college basketball lovers.  Luka Garza vs Evan Mobley is a matchup that can headline any basketball slate. Mobley and company are an achilles heel for the Hawkeyes.  USC has problems at the free throw line which could end up costing them but Tahj Eddy and Ethan Anderson both shoot over 39% from deep which will open up the middle for the unstoppable force Evan Mobley.  

West Regional Bracket Winner- Gonzaga Bulldogs

NCAA Tournament- South Regional Breakdown

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Top Seeds-

  1. Baylor
  2. Ohio State
  3. Arkansas
  4. Purdue

The South Regional is led by the Baylor Bears.  After their long covid pause there seems to be a bit of hesitation in their abilities to get back to the team they were at the beginning of the season.  The loss to Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State along with their struggle to put away lowly Kansas State leaves a lot of question marks on a team that could easily make a run to the championship.  

The Ohio State Buckeyes seemed to come from nowhere to the Big Ten Championship game.  They have prolific scorers in guard Duane Washington and forward EJ Liddell.  It is their role players that can step up at any moment and make an impact on the game.  CJ Walker, Seth Towns and Justin Sueing are all players that can make plays when asked upon.  The Buckeyes have victories over Illinois, Iowa and Michigan this season.  They have been tested all season and have players they can lean on down the stretch of a close game.  

Arkansas was and still is one of the hottest teams in all of college basketball.  Until running into LSU on Saturday they were winners of 13 straight games.  They have an absolutely elite offense led by Moses Moody and Desi Sills.  Their matchup with Colgate should be a cake walk for the Razorbacks (don’t listen to anyone that says different), but they could have gotten a rough matchup if Texas Tech finds its way past Utah State.  Arkansas arguably has the best offense in the entire bracket, but they will have matchups with teams that will slow them down and that is going to be trouble for Eric Musselman and company.

Purdue worked their way into a #4 seed on the back of their star Trevion Williams.  Williams has revitalized the post game in college basketball.  The Boilmakers has a solid resume, finishing 13-6 in the vaunted Big 10, there loan bad loss being against  a depleted Miami team early in the season.  Purdue is a dark horse in this bracket, but they will be tested in the first round by a feisty North Texas team. 

Potential First Round Upsets 

13. North Texas over 4. Purdue

Purdue could be a sleeper to come out of this bracket but I think they will have their hands full with North Texas.  The Mean Green are a stout defensive unit, they give up 60 ppg this season and hold opposing teams to an effective shooting percentage of 45.7%, ranking 20th in the nation.  North Texas has been challenged this year playing West Virginia, Arkansas and Loyola-Chicago this year.  

Purdue has Trevion Williams, he will be a problem for North Texas, but these two team play similar styles.  Purdue can’t look past the Conference USA champions, I think they will and they will pay for it. 

11. Utah State over 6. Texas Tech

Utah State was a surprise to make the tournament. Most thought the Mountain West would be a one bid league, but the Aggies deserve to be there and they will show that in their first round matchup against Texas Tech.  Utah State is a very solid rebounding team that has a stud in the middle named Neemias Queta.  Queta and Justin Bean are tough as they come on the boards and their grind it out style will be a tough matchup for the Red Raiders.  This Utah State team has two victories over San Diego State this season, a team that brings a similar toughness that Texas Tech brings to the table.  Mac McClung and company have more overall talent but they can have trouble putting together consistent offensive success.  Watch out for the Aggies.

Sleeper team to make a run- North Carolina Tarheels

North Carolina enters the 2021 tournament with very little expected of them.  A late surge in the season locked them into a spot, but they do feature the talent to make a solid run.  Their first round matchup with the Wisconsin Badgers doesn’t look as intimidating as it once did early in the season as the Badgers seem to not be able to win a big game despite all the veteran leadership.  They would then likley get a matchup with the Baylor Bears. Baylor’s three point shooting and defense seems like a surefire victory but the Bears will lack the size to handle the Tarheels in the interior. 

Carolina’s biggest problem has been lack of consistent guard play and outside shooting, RJ Davis and Leaky Black have found a groove of late that could mean trouble for opposing teams in the South Regional.  There is NBA level talent on the Tarheel roster, along with a coach that has been there before.  They will be tested right off the bat but they can pass that test without needing to study much.  (Hope you got the joke there)

Pick to win the South- Ohio State Buckeyes over Baylor Bears