Author: italksportsandthatsit

NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Rounds

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Atlanta Falcons -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Atlanta Falcons proved last week that experience does play a factor in the playoffs. This week they head into Philly with a chance to take down the NFC’s top seed.  Betting lines opened favoring the the 6th seeded Falcons.

The main reason the Falcons will be favored this weekend is the Quarterback position.  The evolution of the Quarterback position puts the Eagles at a disadvantage. Over the past half-decade the NFL has seen deliberate, slow-twitch pocket passers virtually disappear from the landscape. Over the last two weeks of the regular season Nick Foles showed no confidence in his pre-snap decision making.  The evolution of the play extending Quarterback has changed the way the game is played.  While Foles is a serviceable backup his inability to adjust at the line and extend plays has caused a change in the offense for Philly.  The Eagles have been unable to adjust their style of play from the Carson Wentz style to the Nick Foles style. With the emergence of the Falcons Dieon Jones and the tanacity of pass rusher Vic Beasley Nick Foles will be forced to make quick decisions that will not pay off.

Matt Ryan’s confidence has grown over the last three weeks of play, the reigning MVP will head into Saturday’s matchup on his hottest streak of the season.  Multiple offensive weapons will be at Ryan’s disposal which will spread a suspect Eagles secondary very thin.  The best chance the Eagles defense will have will be to put as much pressure as possible on Ryan.  Dynamic backfield playmakers Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will give Ryan the ability to bootleg and make short passing plays, eventually leading to openings downfield.

 James Caldwell: Falcons    Matt Boeding: Falcons (Take Falcons to cover)

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots -13.5

Tennessee shocked the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card round setting up a matchup with the #1 seeded New England Patriots.  The Titans enter this game with all the momentum in the world, Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariotta showed up in the second half last week while the defense shut down rookie of the year candidate Kareem Hunt.  The problem that faces the Titans on Saturday is the Patriots have a bit of a different playoff history then the losers in Kansas City.

While Tom Brady gets most of the credit for the Patriots success, the defense has been playing very well, they have allowed a stingy 11.8 PPG over the last 5 home games. While the Patriots lack depth on the defensive front, the secondary has played at an elite level. Matt Patricia has schemed his way around the pass rushing depth masterfully.  The biggest factor in this game will be Pro Bowl Tightend Rob Gronkowski.  The Titans were being dominated by Travis Kelce last week giving up 66yards and a touchdown before Kelce left the game with a concussion.

The Titans strength is stopping the run, but Tom Brady has shown throughout his career the ability to make the right adjustments, even if the Titans find a way to get pressure New England has multiple playmakers that an be matchup problems.

James Caldwell: Patriots (Titans Cover)  Matt Boeding: Patriots (Pats Cover)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5

Sunday features the two most intriguing games of the weekend.  The first will see the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field.  The Steelers will have revenge on their mind as they were embarrassed by the Jacksonville at home 30-9 in week five. Steelers Coach Mike Tomlin stated the team has “evolved” since the beatdown.

The Steelers evolution will have to based around stopping the run as Jacksonville will look to run early and often.  Leonard Fournette torched the Steelers defense for over 160 yards and two touchdowns in their early season showdown.  The Steelers will continue to be without defensive leader Ryan Shazier which will impact he middle for Pittsburgh.  Look for Pittsburgh to do everything they can to clog up the running lanes and force Blake Bortles to beat them through the air. Bortles has dynamic young receivers on the outside but he has not shown the ability to takeover the game.

The Steelers will have to protect their franchise Quarterback on Sunday.  Antonio Brown’s calf injury will slow him no matter what he is telling people.  Big Ben will have to be given time to find his dynamic playmakers.  Le’Veon Bell is the key to success for this game, if he goes for 100 on the ground the Steelers will roll. Take into account that it will be very cold on Sunday in Pittsburgh.  Florida teams traditionally don’t play well in those type of conditions.

James Caldwell: Steelers       Matt Boeding: Steelers (Steelers cover)

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings -5

Their may be no two teams in this league that have changed more from what they were week one then the Saints and Vikings.  Adrian Peterson was pouting on the sideline, Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook had use of both of their knees and Case Keenum was a perennial backup. Fast-forward to the playoffs and now Keenum has a legitimate MVP case, Alvin Kamara is a lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year and the biggest shock of all, the Saints pass defense is competent.

Sam Bradford torched the Saints for 346 yards in week one.  Case Keenum hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since week 3.  The Vikings will have to run the ball effectively to open up the passing game for Keenum.  The Saints have been much improved defense but over the last two weeks they have been giving up a lot of yards to a terrible Tampa Bay team and an at the time struggling Carolina team.  Keenum has shown he has the ability to make the throws down the stretch.

Drew Brees is a hall of famer, Kamara and Ingram are dynamic.  Most of the money is going to go towards the better QB. I love Drew Brees but the Minnesota defense makes the difference.  I see a close game here.

James Caldwell: Vikings     Matt Boeding: Saints   (Saints Cover)

Who Can Close? Cards Free Agent Options

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The St. Louis Cardinals entered the offseason with a few glaring holes.  The need that caught most fans attention is the lack of the middle of the order bat.  Cardinals management took an obsessive approach in filling that hole, eventually landing slugger Marcel Ozuna from the Marlins.  Cardinals fans have turned their complaints to a new place, the bullpen, more prominently the closer position.  Relievers have become a commodity in the MLB garnering contracts that just a few years ago would have been laughable.  If we assume that the Cardinals don’t use one of their current relievers as a closer what options are left on the open market?….and what will it cost?

With the biggest free agent reliever on the market signing 3year/52million dollar contract with the Colorado Rockies, many believe the market is set.  What direction should the Cardinals go in?  Let’s rank the options.

3. Tyler Clippard, 32, Career Saves 61

Tyler Clippard is coming off of arguably his worst season in the major leagues, most probably don’t even realize he was actually on the World Series Champion Astros roster at the close of the MLB season.

Clippard is not your prototypical closer, he doesn’t throw 100 every pitch he relies on deception, movement and a plus changeup in order to get outs.  Clippard has performed well as a closer, 2012 with the Nationals Clippard posted 32 saves for a team that walked into the playoffs. While Clippard has not been able to repeat those numbers he does bring an intriguing element to his game, he is a fly ball pitchers.  50% of Clippard outs are recorded through the air.  The Cardinals have one of the most athletic outfields in baseball entering the 2018 season.  With the addition of gold glover Marcell Ozuna in the outfield and the further development of Tommy Pham to center field Clippard can have more confidence in pounding the strike zone.  The spacious Busch Stadium outfield can also give Clippard the confidence to pound the strike zone.

While Clippard isn’t the sexy pick for closer, his veteran presence can be a nice stop gap to help young relievers like John Brebbia and Tyler Lyons develop more confidence to one day take the job.

 

2. Greg Holland, 32, Career Save 189

Greg Holland is going to be a closer somewhere in 2018. Holland established himself as a true star pitching in the confines of Coors Field finishing the season with an astounding 41 saves.

Holland’s negatives are the fact their is a health risk.  Missing the entire 2016 season and parts of the 2017 really hurt Holland’s value leading into 2018 free agency.  His experience and ability are unquestionable, but the injury risk and high cost that Holland will command may turn off the Cardinals.  Their is also the lingering question of why Holland’s former team would decide to shell out the money to Wade Davis when they have the connection to Holland.

Statistics are always in Hollands favor but the fact that he sits atop of the current available reliever pull could demand multiple years and a lot of money.  While the Cardinals have stated that money is not a problem a projected $15million a year for a guy with a recent injury history could be to much of a gamble for an organization that tends to be cautious in these situations.

1. Addison Reed, 28, Career Saves 125

Addison Reed entered the 2018 free agent market as an after thought as his Reed role changed mid-way through the season after being dealt to the Boston Red Sox.  Before he was Craig Kimbrel’s setup man, Addison Reed was recording saves for a pretty pathetic Mets team. One of the best things about Reed is his low walk rate. His career walk rate is 2.3 per nine innings, and over the last two years it’s even better, 1.6 per nine innings, to go along with a 9.8 per nine strikeout rate. His WHIP of 0.996 over the last two seasons (total of 153⅔ innings over 157 appearances) is outstanding.

Reed will enter 2018 in his age 28 season with very little recent injury history.  A pitcher in his prime playing for a contending team is the right mixture to equal success for the Cardinals and Addison Reed.  The Cardinals can get a quality reliever that is ready to close now for $8million per season. Picking up Reed could be the move that solidifies the Redbirds bullpen for years to come at an extremely affordable rate.

 

Honorable Mention:

Huston Street: Career Saves 304

Too old and to Injury prone.  Worth a look if its cheap.

 

 

The Chiefs are Losers

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While writing this I first want to say that I respect Chiefs fans, they are loyal.  Arrowhead is one of the coolest places in the world to watch a football game and the fanbase knows how to tailgate.  But it’s that time of the year again where the inevitable has happened, it is time for the fanbase to realize that the Chiefs are losers.

Over the last 23 years the Chiefs have lost an astounding 10 of 11 playoff games, the single victory coming against a Houston Texans team the was playing their practice squad offense due to massive injury issues.  This team has become infamous for breaking down in the most crucial moments.

Saturday, the Chiefs entered the second half of a home playoff game with commanding 21-3 lead  against a lackluster Titans team.  As I watched along side multiple Chiefs fans whom had already begun preparation for next weeks playoff party, I couldn’t help myself but to quietly laugh, knowing what was to come over the next two quarters.  The game was not over, the game is never over when it is crunch time for a team that seems to live for disappointment.  Slowly as the trainwreck was taking place in front of me I saw a familiar look on the fans faces.  Their once bright dream of a playoff run was fading away and in the back of their heads they knew if was going to happen. When the clock finally struck 0 and the game ended their wasn’t shock in the room, their was just a realization that their team had done it again.  Their was no anger their was acceptance.  When a fanbase has acceptance of a meltdown, it has accepted that they are losers.

Alex Smith played well, the defense was sound for most of the game, the coaching staff made the right calls. When you look at a game as a fan you try and find the reason that your team has lost.  What could have been done to avoid this defeat.  Questions loomed: How can a player catch his own pass for a touchdown?  What if Travis Kelce doesn’t get concussed?  What if the sack of Marcus Mariota is called a fumble?  What Demarco Murray doesn’t get hurt and Derrick Henry is watching this game from the sideline?  If any one of these questions had a different answer maybe the Chiefs somehow win, but thats not the world we live in.  We live in a world where the Kansas City Chiefs are losers.

We head into an off-season where the Kansas City Chiefs have to figure out how to lost their stigma of just good enough to be in the playoffs.  Historic franchises have found ways to reverse what seems to be a curse, the Red Sox and Cubs found a way to reverse their curses and bring home World Series titles with the prophet that is Theo Epstein.  The Cleveland Cavaliers found a king to break their curse.  Is their a mythical way for the Chiefs to overcome what has become a curse.  The stench of losing is one that can take years to wash away.  The first step is to understand that their is a stench.

I have gotten used to hearing Chiefs fans say their is always next year…Do you really believe that?

No….you really don’t.

Wild Card Playoff Preview

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Playoff time has snuck up on all of us, Matt Boeding and James Caldwell have broken down their picks for what should be a fun wildcard weekend.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams -9

The Los Angeles Rams will make their first appearance in the playoffs since 2005.  The new kids on the block will face off with the defending NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons in a match up that looks like the most intriguing of the weekend.

The Rams are rightfully the heavy favorites coming into this matchup, they have the most high powered offense in the league, potentially the best runningback, best defensive player and they are at home…sort of.  The Rams are young all over the field, including the sideline, they have not felt the pressure that a playoff game can bring.  It will be up to the Rams to set the tempo of the game,  McVay will want to score early and often to set the tone for the game. If the Rams jump out early, they can just hand the ball off to Todd Gurley and let him finish the game. Of the Falcons six losses five of them have come when the opposing teams runningback surpasses 100 yards

The Falcons come into this game with less pressure then they have felt all year.  No one expects the Falcons to beat the offensive juggarnaut that the Rams have become.  Quietly Atlanta has made it into the playoffs with a defense that is ranked in the top ten in yards per game this season.  That being said they have still been giving up the big play as they only rank  15th in PPG allowed.  The defense will have to find a way to slow down Todd Gurley and force Jared Goff to make the difference.  Offensively the Falcons will need Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to be Matt Ryan and Julio Jones of 2016.  The Falcons have to put the pressure on the Rams by making plays on 3rd down.  Don’t let a young team gain confidence.

James Caldwell: Falcons           Matt Boeding: Rams   (Bet Falcons +9)

Tennessee Titans at  Kansas City Chiefs -9

The Tennessee Titans enter wildcard weekend as the most perplexing team in recent memory.  A preseason pick by many to win their division, they have been underwhelming at times but somehow made the playoffs despite giving up more points then scoring this season.  The Titans defense has played the run solid all year only allowing three 100-yard rushers the entire season.  Stopping the run against an Andy Reid offense gives the Titans some hope to pull off the upset.  The Titans also feature a line that has 4 guys with over 7 sacks.  The Titans want to keep this low scoring, if they do they have a chance to pull off the upset at Arrowhead.

The Chiefs come in with a four game win streak.  With mid-season struggles behind them the Chiefs have rediscovered how to win.  Alex Smith will have his work cut out for him as the Titans stingy run defense will force him to make plays. Travis Kelce  and Tyreek Hill will be a huge factor for the Titans, short dump off passes to these two playmakers will make the difference, they will ned to turn 5 yard routes to 12 yard gains.

The Titans offense doesn’t scare anyone unless your are scared of inconsistency. The Chiefs homefield advantage will also be a huge factor for another young team.  While we think the spread is a bit much, this seems like a route.

James Caldwell: Chiefs       Matt Boeding: Chiefs     (Bet Titans +9)

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -9

The 2017 season started about as different as you humanly possible for these two teams.  The Jaguars were the up and coming team that was going to make that next big step, while the Bills were “tanking the season”.  As the season played out these predictions were right on one end and ridiculous on the other.

The Jaguars enter this game as 9 point favorites and in the eyes of most that may have been to low.  The Bills can’t stop the run and the Jaguars would prefer Blake Bortles only throws the ball during warmups .  The Jaguars are 6th in the league in rushing at home while the Bills front is ranked at the bottom half of the league run prevention.  Play calls will most likely be 2-1 in favor of the run.

LeSean McCoy is a game time decision for the Bills, without McCoy this entire offense has to change itself.  McCoy’s ability to not only run but help the passing game with his bootleg ability.  Tyrod Taylor’s ability to scramble will be a huge asset against “Sacksonville” but with out the threat of McCoy containing Taylor should become much easier.

James Caldwell: Jaguars   Matt Boeding: Jaguars .  (Bet Jags -9)

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints -7

The third matchup is suppose to be the difference maker, unless one team has dominated the other both matchups.  That’s the case Sunday when the Panthers travel to New Orleans

The Panthers are a team that gives you no confidence, do we give them a chance? Ofcourse, you have to give a guy like Cam Newton a chance, is he shows up on Sunday the Panthers can turn from wild card to Superbowl contender.  Problem is when you have to say “if he shows up” you have a problem.   Carolina ranks 31st in yards over the last three games in a season where they actually beat the Patriots and the Vikings. This team is to confusing to trust, but then you see they are first in the league against the run you have to wonder ….”What if they can shut down Kamara and Ingram?”.

The Saints have Drew Brees whom is the opposite of Cam Newton, you know he is coming ready to play.  The Panthers tend to play alot of zone defenses that I look for Drew Brees to pick apart.  If Brees can make plays in the zone it will open up lanes for his two dynamic backs.  While I like the Saints offense, the defense will have guys spying Newton all game while rookie Marshon Lattimore will be best friends with only real wide receiver option Devin Funchess all game.  Greg Olsen has shown flashes of his pro bowl ability but still seems to logged with rust after missing most of the season with a broken foot.  New Orleans just has more weapons then a confusing Carolina team

James Caldwell: Saints      Matt Boeding: Saints   (Panthers cover +7)

SEC basketballs new power conference?

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As we enter 2018 a change in college basketball is upon us, the SEC has become a basketball conference.  A conference that has long been the staple of football championships is quickly changing into hoops dominance.  In the latest college basketball poll we saw 4 SEC teams in the top 25, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M currently sit in the hierarchy of college basketball.  I intend to wake you up to the idea that at years end we could see a new dominate conference.

While their may only be 4 teams in the top 25 the depth of this conference will soon be seen by all. Mississippi State and Auburn currently sit at 13-1 while teams like Georgia, Alabama and last years tournament darling South Carolina continue to rise up the polls. Perennial power basketball conferences like the ACC, Big 12 and Big 10 will have their dominate team, but none can match the depth of the SEC.

John Calipari’s arrival in Lexington put a hold on the top of the division for the last three years but we are beginning to see a changing of the guard.  Missouri Basketball went out and hired famed recruiter/Head Coach Cuonzo Martin whom immediately made an impact by recruiting prosepect Michael Porter Jr. Porter Jr’s unfortunate injury has caused Missouri to have regression in his first year but the rest of the league is aware of his ability to bring talent in.  Alabama made a similar statement bringing in for NBA Star Avery Johnson in to revitalize a program that hasn’t seen much success, Johnson’s hire brought in prized recruit Colin Sexton whom could by years end be the best point guard in college basketball.  Despite the controversy, Bruce Pearl has begun to turn around the Auburn program a team projected to win only 4 games in the SEC took down ranked Tennessee on Tuesday night in Knoxville.

The depth of the SEC is real, while former powerhouse conferences the ACC, Big12 and Big10 are top heavy the SEC has multiple teams that can can make an impact come tournament time.  As we watch the conference play unfold in 2018 we will see the growth of these programs, it is not far fetched to potentially see 8-10 SEC teams enter March Madness, all with the potential to make a run.  While we can fight the idea of the SEC being a new power conference these teams are not going anywhere and the conference as a whole is now a force to be dealt with for many years to come.

Weekly Picks December 29 2017

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Picks

 It’s Bowl season and playoff football time.  Sports is at its peak over the next few weeks, let’s end the year the right way, we went 3-2 last week.  This week we are feeling good about winning you some money. Matt Boeding and I have increased our record to an impressive 25-20-2, we may not always be right, but we have been very right lately.

 *all spread from sportsbook.com

NFL

Washington Redskins -3 at New York Giants , over/under 39.5

The Giants have become the “Jersey Shore” of the NFL.  Every time we think the drama can’t get better they find a way to prove us wrong.  Whether its coaching issues are inner team arguments this team is a joke and they would most likely prefer to lose this game to help get a higher draft pick.

Unlike the Giants the Redskins actually have a little to play for.  Sitting at 7-8 they are looking at a middle level draft pick no matter what.  Jay Gruden wants to end the season on a positive note and QB Kirk Cousins is somehow still playing for a contract. Cousins will come out throwing as the Giants continued drama has caused a loss of another defensive back.  Look for huge day from Cousins, I will be starting him in my Draft Kings lineups as well.

We see Redskins by at least 20….I wonder where these two teams starting QB’s will be playing at this time next year.

PicksRedskins -3

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons -4, over/under 45

The Panthers head into Atlanta for a showdown with the Falcons, arguable the most important game during Week 17.  Falcons win they lock up a playoff spot, Carolina wins they have a chance of overtaking the Saints for the division title.

Atlanta missed a huge opportunity last week falling to the Saints.  Matt Ryan will have to live up to his nickname as the Falcons will need to play with confidence.  It will be up to Ryan to take control of this game as the Panthers pass defense has gotten shredded over the last few weeks allowing 282 yards per game over the last 3 games.

The Panthers roll into Atlanta locking up a playoff spot last week.  This is a team that historically plays better in December, they also are beginning to understand how they need to play to be successful.  Cam Newton has confidence, that is scary for the NFL.  The Panthers are also beginning to get healthier as Greg Olsen is beginning to return to form.

The pressure will prove to be to much Sunday for Matt Ryan.  Carolina will come out on fire. I think it will be close, with the Panthers getting 4 points I think they are a must play here.  I say they win outright.

PicksPanthers +4 

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions -6.5, Over/Under 43

Last week I wrote that Mathew Stafford and the Lions would dominate a Bengals team that looked like they mailed it in for the rest of they year…that did not go the way I had planned.  The Lions head home this week to take on a Packers team that looks similar to the last weeks Bengals.  The Packers without Aaron Rodgers have been exposed as a team with sub par talent up and down the roster.

Packers backup Brett Hundley has not looked completely hopeless on the road, throwing for over 240 yards in his last two road games.  Hundley looked  good in his first matchup against the Lions early in the season throwing for 245 yards while adding a rushing touchdown.

The Detroit Lions have had a very Detroit Lions season.  They get their fanbase excited then let them down a week later.  Losing to the Bengals last week should have been the last straw for a fanbase that is so hungry for winning.  Mathew Stafford and Jim Caldwell need this win.  I think the Lions finally have a runningback break 100 yards this weekend and Stafford ends the season with a win by at least a touchdown.

Lions….there are at least 5 good runningbacks in the upcoming draft, get Stafford a decent back please….oh and a pass rush would also be nice.

PicksLions -3.5

James’s “Why Not” Pick of the Week. Record: 4-5: I hate Hornibrook but love the Badgers.

The Miami Hurricanes will be taking on the Wisconsin Badgers Saturday in the Orange Bowl.  The Hurricanes were everyones darlings this year and seem primed to dominate this game, Wisconsin is very similar to the Notre Dame team that Miami waxed in front of the entire world earlier this year.

Wisconsin is not Notre Dame, they will play a boring brand of football and control the clock.  Wisconsin will not give Miami the chance to bring out the turnover chain.  My “Why Not” pick of the week is:

PicksWisconsin -5

Good luck on your bets this week and remember if you aren’t down a paycheck you can still bet.

What I learned from Week 16.

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Week 16 of the NFL Season is over and we are beginning to have a better look at what the playoffs are going to bring.  While their is tons of takeaways, three things stood out to me.

Todd Gurley is the MVP.

The NFL is no doubt a quarterback league. The chances of anyone but a QB winning MVP seems laughable at times, but its time to wake up.  We are in the age of the dynamic runningback.  Le’Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt, and David Johnson are just a few of the high caliber runningbacks that are beginning to take over the league, but the best is unquestionably Todd Gurley.

In just his 3rd season in the NFL Todd Gurley has positioned himself as the best in the game.  Sunday in Tennessee he put up numbers that you can barely achieve while playing Madden on rookie level.  The arguments against Gurley are legitimate, “Sean McVay is a brilliant offensive mind”, “Goff has made big strides to open up the running lanes”…bla, bla, bla.  Todd Gurley has been the difference in nearly every game this season and has been the driving force of this offense.  Why is it the quarterback that can open the lanes for the runningback and not the other way around.  Gurley will enter Week 17 with over 2,000 all purpose yards and 19 touchdowns.  He his who you have to game plan for, he is the the unstoppable force.  While we know most likely Tom Brady will take home another MVP, it is time to open our eyes to the talent that is Todd Gurley.

Just ask Jeff Fischer how good Gurley is and I am sure he will take credit for his great season and accept the MVP award for him.

The Eagles are screwed.

The Philadelphia Eagles are the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs, thats great. Nick Foles made his second start of the season last night for the injured Carson Wentz.  Eagles fans hoped to see the same Foles that torched the Giants defense for 4 TDs.  Sadly what they saw was the Nick Foles that I thought we would see.  While Foles has ability his lack of progression with the first team offense was very alarming. Every time the Eagles needed a play they got the Jeff Fischer St. Louis Foles and that is not a Foles that can win in the playoffs.

The Eagles Defense stepped up for the concerning offense but as the pressure and the Quarterback talent gets better I worry that this Eagles secondary cannot hold up.  Over the last two weeks we have seen and alarming amount of big plays down field.  Eventually the secondary will have to cover, if the Eagles can’t get a pass rush they are doomed.

The Eagles have the first seed, maybe they can get through one game but I see an early exit coming.  If they loose at home it could get ugly.

Jimmy G is awesome

Bill Belichick knows how good Jimmy Garoppolo is.  Now the entire world is starting to see how good he is. On Sunday the 49ers put up 44 points against arguably the best defense in football.  He has not only put up solid numbers but you can see the effect he has on a team that at one point in the season was 1-10.

Not only is Garoppolo talented but he has great management and coaching behind him.  The 49ers still have some work to do improving a very weak roster, but it’s pretty nice to know that they have the Quarterback of the future.  If John Lynch is as smart as I think he is he will not hesitate to throw all the money he can at Garoppolo.  A year from now a second round pick for this guy is going to be a pretty funny joke.

 

Weekly Picks Dec. 23 2017: Christmas Eve Football is Awesome

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Merry Christmas to all and to all a good bet. Week 16 of the NFL season comes to us and we have tough decisions to make. This is a week of potential surprise as some teams are in the mood to play spoiler for potential playoff teams. Matt Boeding and I have increased our record to an impressive 22-18-2, we may not always be right, but we have been very right lately.

 *all spread from sportsbook.com

NFL

Minnesota Vikings -9 at Green Bay Packers , over/under 40

The Minnesota Vikings head into Lambeau Field on Sunday still in play for the #1 overall see in the NFC, that means bad news for the the Packers. Brett Hundley has been inconsistent  over his seven starts, surprisingly his numbers have been much worse at home averaging 131 passing yards with zero touchdowns and five picks.  The last time Hundley faced the high powered Vikings defense taking over for the injured Aaron Rodgers he was intercepted three times to go along with being sacked four times. We forsee a tough day for the Hundley…his favorite target Davante Adams will miss this game as well.  No Adams, no Aaron Rodgers and no chance to make this game competitive.

 

The Packers will show heart early in this one as the home crowd will surely be in a frenzy…potential revenge will be on the mind of the Packers who have the Vikings to thank for ending their season when Anthony Barr landed on Aaron Rodgers in week six. Heart is great but talent will win out.  We see the Vikings winning by at least  two touchdowns. Take Vikings and the under.

PicksVikings -9 (Parlay with the under)

Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 at New York Jets, over/under 42.5

The Chargers did a very Chargers thing last Saturday, lost with everything on the line.  Los Angeles is not technically out of the playoffs at this point but they have to win on Sunday.  Luckily they get a chance to face the Bryce Petty lead Jets.

The Jets spent an early part of the season as a great story, potentially a surprise playoff team.  Tough losses and a few injuries derailed the promising start and now they are just playing to see what draft pick they are going to get.  The Jets have a knack for for winning this game and covering as they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

If the Chargers have any pride in themselves they will take care of business in New York.  Phillip Rivers loves to make things interesting this time of year so you know they will pull this one out, we think they will win easily, at 6.5 all it takes is a touchdown victory.

PicksChargers -6.5

Detroit Lions -3.5 at Cincinati Bengals, Over/Under 44.5

This one is as simple as it gets.  The Bengals have already given up on the season and are looking for ways to ruin Marvin Lewis’s final run.  The Bengals have nothing to play for and a long list of injuries.  The Lions are still a potential playoff team with every advantage.  Matt Stafford don’t screw this up… this should be easy money.

PicksLions -3.5

James’s “Why Not” Pick of the Week. Record: 4-4: Miz vs Ill, people actually care about this one.

For my “Why Not” pick of the week I have decided to dip into the NCAA basketball field for the first time this year.  Today we will have the Bragging Rights game between the Mizzou Tigers and the Illinois Fighting Illini is taking place at Scottrade Center. What was once a heated rivalry has become lackluster over the past few seasons as both teams have been pretty much awful. The signing of Michael Porter immediately brought some interest in this game. Even though he is out this should be  a fun one to watch.  I think Mizzou has much more talent and should pull this one out.

Why Not pick of the week: Mizzou -5

Good luck on your bets this week and remember if you aren’t down a paycheck you can still bet.