NFL Picks ATS Week 12

Didn’t have time to Podcast my picks this week so here they are.  Picks will be bolded. Season Record 87-67.

Chicago Bears -3 at Detroit Lions

Trubisky injury worries me.  The Kerryon Johnson injury worries me even more for Detroit.  The Lions were finally establishing a run game, they will now have to focus on the passing game which will be tough against the Bears pass rush.  Mack dominates and so do the Bears.

Washington Redskins +7.5 at Dallas Cowboys

The Redskins were not going to win this game because of Alex Smith.  Colt McCoy knows Jay Gruden’s system and the Redskins are to tough to get blown out be an offense that at times does not seem to understand that Zeke is the man. May even look at the ML.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints -13

Saints are the hottest team in the league, getting a dream matchup versus a struggling Falcons defense.  Kamara and Ingram will feast on turkey day.  13 points is a lot but this Saints team is continually trying to make a statement that they are the best in the NFC and a demolition on national TV is the perfect time to do it.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills

The Jaguars have to win this game and they have to crush a lesser team.  The Jags showed in the first half last week what this team was supposed to look like.  They will not have Big Ben on the other side to pull off a late comeback.  The Bills are tough but they don’t have the offense to put up anything against Jacksonville.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals -3

Bengals are desperate for a win.  They will not allow a rookie QB to beat them two weeks in row.  Bengals come out and dominate.  I like what the Browns have been doing with Nick Chubb and the reemergence of Duke Johnson but the Bengals are still a better team and they should prevail at home by at least a touchdown.

New England Patriots -10.5 at New York Jets

Jets may not have Darnold and they just got destroyed by the Buffalo Bills.  The Pats are also off a buy.  Should be fully healthy.  Thats all that needs to be said on this one.

New York Giants +7 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants have killed me this season.  The Eagles though enter this game with basically a practice squad secondary.  Look for Barkley and Beckham to dominate the Eagles secondary.  I have little hope for Eli to be dominate but this team is to strong offensively to ignore.  The Eagles can win this game but I think seven points is to much in a division game.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

The Buc’s need to move on from Jameis but for now they are rollin with him.  The 49ers have a lot of heart and play hard but this Buccaneers team has to many weapons for the 49ers to hold them down.  The 49ers will not be able to keep up.  Bet Bucs and collect your money.

Seattle Seahawks +3 at Carolina Panthers

This game should be very fun to watch.  Two underrated QB’s in Cam Newton and Russell Wilson will battled for their playoff lives.  The Panthers have been a thorn in my side while making these picks while Seattle has been a great pick for me all year.  Seattle is underrated and will prove it on Sunday.  I like Seattle to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens -12

The Ravens enter this game with a question mark at QB.  Either Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco will lead them to the promise land though.  The Raiders showed life last week but that was against a Cardinals team that didn’t have much to play for.  The Ravens need this win and will get it by 14 easily.

Arizona Cardinals +13.5 at Los Angeles Chargers

I know the Cardinals lost to the Raiders last week but they have done a much better job of utilizing their best weapon David Johnson since Byron Leftwich took over play calling duties. The Cardinals will run the ball and keep Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon on the sideline.  Chargers will pull out the victory but a late touchdown in garbage time will kill the cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos

Steelers are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning 7 straight games. The Broncos love to cover spreads, just ask the Rams and the Chargers.  The Steelers though don’t need much to put up a lot of points.  Steelers with utilize their great offensive talent to jump out to an early lead.

Pittsburgh has been getting great pressure on the opposing QB’s leading the league in sacks right now. Case Keenum is going to have a long day.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts -10

The announcement that Ryan Tannahill will play immediately took half a point off this spread.  That won’t make a difference against a Colts team that has figured out how to block for their star QB Anrew Luck.  After the beating the Colts gave the Dolphins, I don’t see any way that Miami sticks with them.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings -3

Its really hard to bet on Kirk Cousins over Aaron Rodgers.  It is however easy to bet against Mike McCarthy.  Two teams that both need wins, I am going with the home team. That is literally the only thing I can say about this game.

Tennesee Titans at Houston Texans Pick’em

Titans don’t know who their starting QB will be on Monday night.  Don’t really care, Houston will win at home.

Thanks for reading and Good Luck

NBA Trade Candidates

The Washington Wizards have announced that everyone is on the market.  John Wall stands out to most as the big-ticket pick up but I see it differently.  Bradley Beal seems like the better fit for most teams.  He will bring shooting, defense and he is not as big a jerk as John Wall.  Where would he be the best fit? He has a big salary but can be worth the risk for a team looking to compete.

Unlikely but intriguing: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are on the cusp of being great.  Eric Bledsoe has stepped up in a leadership role to go along with Giannis and Khris Middleton.  Adding a guard the caliber of Bradley Beal would put them over the top.  Beal would give them a guard that they can rely upon to handle the scoring load if Giannis is off the court.  A lineup featuring multiple All- Stars would be too much to handle.

Bucks give up: Malcom Brogdon, Tony Snell, future first rounder this trade is unlikely because Washington would want more young talent but its worth a shot.

Makes sense: Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are in desperate need for a second star.  That star could be Bradley Beal, along side Kemba Walker they could have debatably the best backcourt in the NBA. Beal would be a much better fit along side Kemba when compared to Wall. He’s a better shooter and just generally more active when not controlling possessions. Micheal Jordan wants to make a contender out of Charlotte, refusing to move Kemba Walker.  This move could be a way to help Kemba stay at the end of the season.

Hornets give up: Malik Monk, MKG, 2019 first-rounder.  Monk would be a nice center piece for a team trying to rebuild as well as a 2019 first rounder.

Makes too much sense: Detroit Pistons

The Pistons made a splash last season adding Blake Griffin to play along side team cornerstone Andre Drummond.  This season they should make another bold move by adding Bradley Beal to the mix.  Detroit has had an ever turning ferris wheel of two guards flow through their rotation, names like Reggie Bullock, Langston Galloway, Ish Smith, Glen Robinson, and Luke Kennard have all had time playing the role of starter. These are not the cream of the crop for a team looking to contend.

Detroit currently ranks 29th in the league in three point % at just 31.6% on the season.  In todays shooter friendly NBA that is going to hold you back.  Adding Beal will force the defense to the outside and limit the double teams on the the two star bigs Griffin and Drummond.

Pistons give up: 2019 first round pick, Reggie Bullock,Stanley Johnson, and take on the full contract.

Should do it: Los Angeles Lakers

You should always place shooters around Lebron James.  Adding Bradley Beal would not only give you a shooter but a player that can be perfect as your third star after the summer. Los Angeles will likely be looking to add a big contract in the summer, many have looked at Klay Thompson as an additional piece to the puzzle, but maybe the piece could be Bradley Beal.  He is a similar player skill wise, (Klay is probably better) and you can get him for a cheap price of bench players.

The Lakers are looking to contend next year, why not make your moves now.

Lakers give up: Josh Hart, KCP, 2019 first round pick

 

 

DFS Picks November 19 2018

November 19 2018- DFS Draftkings pick.

Big slates are always fun.  Tonights slate is very interesting with a lot of different injuries impacting starting lineups.

PG: DeAron Fox, Sacramento Kings ($6,100)

Fox at $6,100 is to cheap.  OKC is without Westbrook and with Tony Ferguson.  Both teams will look to play at a quick pace.

SG: Tyreke Evans, Indiana Pacers ($4,100)

Victor Oladipo is out tonight.  That means the Pacers will need some production from from the guards, Evans brings the most upside.  Look at his usage rate to jump tonight.

SF: Tobias Harris, Los Angeles Clippers ($7,800)

Harris gives you a little bit of everything at a great price. Atlanta is a team that gives up points in bunches.  Who is going to stop Harris?  Answer… no one.

PF: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans ($11,600)

Davis has put up over 60 DK points in five straight games.  San Antonio is without Davis Bertans, Pau Gasol and any rim protection at all.  Davis is pricy but worth the cost.

C: Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers ($4,700)

Turner will get a lot of chances to score tonight without Oladipo.  Same argument for Evans with Oladpio out Turner’s usage rate jumps up.

G: Colin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,100)

Sexton is a gamble but with three straight games playing over 30 minutes and putting up over 30 points Sexton is a plug and play guy at an affordable price.  As long as Cleveland continues to play their young players there is upside to Sexton.

F: TJ Warren, Phoenix Suns ($6,400)

TJ Warren scores and scores in bunches start him and watch him go.

UTL: Monte Morris, Denver Nuggets ($4,100)

Morris is inexpensive and has been playing starters minutes, end of story.

Good luck tonight!

 

 

NCAA Picks ATS Week 12

Season Record: 28-29

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines -28

The Wolverines are on fire.  The Hoosiers kind of stink.  Still 28 points seems like way to much here.  Jim Harbaugh will have a problem keeping his team focused with a rivalry game coming up next week against Ohio State.

Running the ball will not be an option against this stout Michigan defense. Hoosier QB Peyton Ramsey will have to stay accurate, a 67% passer for the season will need to be that accurate to keep his team in the game. Indiana will have to take whats given and continue to move the ball down field, the Hoosiers are solid on third down and will have to continue that on Saturday.

Michigan will most likely grab an early lead, which could be beneficial for Indiana bettors, both teams have much more to play for next week.  Michigan winning by 30 won’t be whats on their mind.  The Wolverines will take a lead early and play smart to avoid injuries.  I like Michigan to win but four touchdowns is too much for me.

PicksIndiana Hoosiers +28

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders  at Kentucky Wildcats -16

MTSU has won six of their past seven games.  While they are not a power five team they still bring in a hot streak that can’t be ignored. Sitting at 5-2 ATS over their last seven games the Blue Raiders are a promising choice for this weekend.

The Wildcats became a basketball school again after last weeks beat down by Tennessee. They are not a strong offensive team scoring 14, 14, 15, 17, and 7 in their October games.  16 points for a team that can’t score is too much. Kentucky will most likely win an ugly game but don’t be shocked to look up Saturday morning and see an early deficit for the Wildcats.

PicksMiddle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +16

Syracuse Orange vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (Neutral Site)

The Irish are in the drivers seat for the College Football playoff.  The decline of USC has left a matchup with the surprising Syracuse Orange as the biggest threat to their chances.

The Fighting Irish have been unstoppable since placing Ian Book into the starting role, despite a rib injury that forced him out against Florida State Head Coach Brian Kelly believes Book will be ready to go.  The Notre Dame offense should be in full force heading into Yankee Stadium, that could me trouble for the Orange.

This game smells like a blowout for the Fighting Irish.  Veteran QB Eric Dungey and Head Coach Dino Babers don’t do anything but cover though.  The Orange have the experience and leadership to keep this close.  This is their second four game win streak of the year, that last streak was ended by the Clemson Tigers, another College Playoff team, the Orange won’t win but double digits is to much for this team.

PicksSyracuse Orange +10

NC State Wolfpack -17 at Louisville Cardinals

This is a straight fading a bad team situation here.  The Louisville Cardinals are just not good.  They have finally solved their coaching situation but will that really make a difference for this season.  Can they magically become a credible team? No.

NC State just got demolished by Wake Forest on primetime.  They are coming for blood.  Louisville is a disaster on both lines and they will get shredded by Ryan Finley if they can’t get pressure.  Look for the NC State passing game to have a field day.  Lousiville may have a direction now but they are already looking to next year.  Bet NC State and take a nap during the game.

PicksNC State Wolfpack -17

UConn Huskies at East Carolina Pirates

I know everyone is excited about this matchup of titans! 1-9 UConn vs 2-7 East Carolina is not a sexy game for college football fans looking to watch games with any meaning.  For football fans that like offense, this one should be fun.

East Carolina has lost 5 straight after starting the season 2-2.  They have played Memphis and Tulane tough over their last two week and were in need for a bit of a break. Their break comes this weekend whent they play a hapless Uconn team that has allowed everyone to steam roll them all season.  East Carolina will throw and throw and throw until they are up by 20.  Then they will throw some more.  East Carolina is not a great team, but they roll in this one.

PicksEast Carolina Pirates -17

Other Picks:

USC -3

OK State +5

Iowa -14.5

Boston College -1.5

 

NBA Trade Candidates- Where should Terry Rozier go?

Jimmy Butler is finally out of Minnesota, as he heads to the Sixers to create perhaps the biggest 3 the NBA has seen since Lebron and Bosh took their talents to South Beach what is going to happen to the other big names on the trade market. Terry Rozier has been rumored to be on the move as the Celtics don’t seem to have a place for him . Kyrie is cemented as the starter, as he enters free agency the Celtics will be forced to open up the check book, Marcus Smart just signed a 4-year, $52 million contract.  With no money for Rozier they Celtics and Danny Ainge will look to try get what he can for the talented point guard.

Unlikely but intriguing: Indiana Pacers

The Celtics wouldn’t likely be in the business of making a fellow Eastern Conference contender better but if the shoe fits sometimes you have to put it on.  The Pacers have a lot of young talent a well as role players they could move in order to make this work.  If the Pacers were to send Cory Joseph and either Thaddeus Young or Dom Sabonis to the Celtics for Rozier both teams would win.

The Celtics would have veteran backup that doesn’t need to play big minutes in Joseph and provide better depth in the front court.  Both Young and Sabonis would be able to fill a need that the Celtics have, which is established depth behind Al Horford.

The Pacers would be able to pair Oladipo with Rozier and create a dynamic guard tandom that can play on both end of the floor.  This deal would be great for both parties but unlikely with both of them contending.

Makes Sense: Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic are pretty set on big men.  Mo Bamba, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Johnathon Isaac are the cornerstones of the organization.  With a litany of bigs to build around the Magic have a need for points and leadership at the guard position. DJ Augustin has been a solid NBA player for a number of years but is simply a ball control point guard that will limit mistakes but not make the big plays.  Rozier would walk into Orlando and immediately be the best guard on the roster.  He can initiate offense at a high level and be a perfect fit to work along side Aaron Gordon.

Rozier could be in attack mode the entire game, fitting the perfect style of new Head Coach Steve Clifford.  The Magic have young pieces as well as vets that could intrigue Ainge to make a move.

Makes to much sense: Phoenix Suns

The Suns have been in rebuild mode since Steve Nash parted ways with the organization. Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton are the pieces to build around, adding a hard noised defender with the ability to run a proficient offense could be just the ticket that the Suns need.  Booker has been working the point a lot during the 2018 season which is not ideal for a shotmaker of his caliber.

Bringing in Rozier would give them two guards that can compete every night forcing opposing defenses to utilize their best defender on one while the other can be freed up. Rozier running the pick-and-roll with the explosive Deandre Ayton would also be an exciting form of offense for Phoenix, were they to acquire the Celtic guard.

The Suns are not afraid to take on big contracts so signing Rozier long term wouldn’t be a problem for the rebuilding franchise. A piece like Trevor Ariza could be intriguing to move.  Ariza on the Celtics could can add toughness on both ends of the floor as well.  Win/win for both teams.

Should do it: San Antonio Spurs

Losing Dejounte Murray was a big deal to begin the season. The third year guard was set to take the place of long time great Tony Parker. A torn ACL ended his season and put the Spurs guard options behind DeMar DeRozan very limited. Young guards Derrick White and Bryn Forbes have filled the role admirably but are not difference makers.  Both would be served better playing a bench role or spot start during rest days.

The Spurs are not a team that likes to make changes in season.  Adding a player like Rozier along with the veterans and rising stars can make a huge impact on a team that has played above expectations so far.  Rozier is a grinder that would be worth a flyer for the right cost.

Rozier is a star in the making if given the chance.  With the leadership in place for San Antonio the transition from Boston to San Antonio would be seamless.  This move would put the Spurs in a better place, making them a legit playoff contender.

 

 

NCAAF Week 11 Pick ATS

Season Record: 25-25

Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers -17

The Missouri Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the year dominating the Florida Gators last week.  This week they get the Vanderbilt Commodores whom create rather different matchup.

The Commodores can keep up with the Missouri offense, Kyle Shurmur brings a bigger threat in the passing game then the dismal effort shown by Felipe Franks last week. The Commodores can also run the ball effectively, running  for a season-high – against FBS teams – 250 yards with four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas a few weeks ago, led by a 176-yard day from Ke’Shawn Vaughn.

This is just to many points to for a Missouri team that loves to let down its fans.  I see Mizzou winning this game but 17 points seems like to much.

PicksVanderbilt Commodores +17

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers -1.5

Indiana has lost four straight games including a rather embarrassing effort against Minnesota. The Indiana defense has given up over 150 yards rushing in each of its at four games.  When the Terrapin can run the ball, they can win.

The Terrapins also have the ability to cause turmoil on the defensive end. With a suspect Indiana passing game going against a strong secondary, I see turnovers for the Hoosiers.

PicksMaryland Terrapins +1.5

Ohio State -4 at Michigan State

If you just went off of analyst opinions you would think the Ohio State Buckeyes are at .500 or worse.  The Buckeyes sit at 8-1, still technically in the running for a shot at the College Football Playoff.  A win over a strong conference foe could be just the ticket to get them back on track.

Overshardowed by the negatives has been the terrific season by Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins. He set the OSU single-season record for completions against Nebraska and can break the single-season yardage mark with 278 against MSU. The Spartans, usually known for their stingy defense actuallly rank 98th in the country in pass defense.

Haskins will be to much for Michigan State, the Spartans will not be able to produce enoiugh on the offensive end to compete.  Ohio States defense is bad but they don’t have to be great this weekend to cover.

PicksOhio State -4

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils -13.5

I don’t try to have many trends in my College Football bets.  Mainly I just look at the lines I like and go with it.  But I have seemed to find a nice niche in fading the UCLA Bruins. Last weeks Oregon game was easy money and I look to see the same outcome this week.

Two teams going in two different directions.  It’s been a tale of two diffrerent coaches, while Chip Kelly has disappointed in his first season, Herm Edwards has already exceeded expectations.  Arizona State has more weapons and have been tough at home.  Look for the Sun Devils to roll.

PicksArizona State -13.5

 

Other Picks:

Kentucky -5.5

Purdue -11.5

Ole Miss/ Texas A&M Under 67

Game One of the NCAA Basketball Season

The NCAA Basketball season is back! November basketball doesn’t mean much in the long landscape of college basketball.  Teams that struggle on the first night mostly can regroup  when crunch time hits in February and March but as a sports community we are always quick to judgement so let’s judge away.

The Good- The ACC

As a Duke fan I try and keep my ACC biasis in check most of the time but this league is just to good to ignore.

Syracuse and Virginia will most likely be the most boring teams in basketball but their defensive ability will smother teams of all leavels.  Combined they both gave up just 76 points.

North Carolina avenged their loss to Wofford last year (they also covered -10.5).  Wofford is veteran team that gave them all they wanted.  North Carolina has a very underrated freshma class to compliment Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson.  This team is good.

We will get to the biggest statement win at the end of this article, don’t ignore the domination that Florida State showed last night. Florida is a solid team out of the revamped “basketball” conference the SEC.  Florida was never in that game.

The ACC showed how dominate they could be last night,  even Pittsburgh won!

The Bad- The Atlantic 10

The A-10 was set for some regression in 2018-19. Rhode Island lost their big stars and their coach.  St. Bonaventure lost a litany of starters, VCU has not been able to return to  since Shaka Smart moved on to Texas and the SLU Billikens are still transitioning into relevance under Travis Ford but opening night for this league did not go well.

George Mason, took a loss at home to the Ivy League’s Pennsylvania Quakers, traditionally not a terrible loss but for a team many saw as a top three contender in the Atlantic 10 this was very surprising.

George Washington continued its irrelavane after a dismal 2017-18 seaosn falling at home to American East’s Stony Brook Seawolves.  A game that saw George Washington blow an earyl 22-0 lead! George Washington is not good but this was a game that they were suppose to cruise to a win.

The Temple Owls were able to pull out a victory over La Salle but they did not look impressive to say the least struggling to keep the lead against a very unimpressive Lasalle squad.

Finally conference preseason favorite the SLU Billikens won but showed their potential issues in a ten point victory of Southeast Missouri State.  The Billikens could not find any shooting stroke making just 4-25 three point shots.  In today’s game lack of shooting will come back to haunt them.

Davidson and Rhode Island looked good beating two lesser teams but overall this was not a night to remember for the respected Atlanic 10 Conference.  Luckily for them they were over shadowed by a few games that had a bit more media draw.

THE SEC also had a pretty rough night.  Cough, Kentucky, Cough, Florida.

The Zion

There is a belief that Zion is the Holy Land and it truly exists.  Duke’s Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish, RJ Barrett and Tre Jones are the Zion of college basketball. The domination of the number two ranked Kentucky Wildcats was the tip of the iceberg of what this team can be.

While the four freshman bring the flash, role players Jack White, Marques Bolden, Alex O’Connell and Javin Delaurier complemented them perfectly on Tuesday night.  Talks of this team going undefeated are premature in the loaded ACC.  Games against defensive minded Syracuse and Virginia will give the Blue Devils trouble this season, but they established themselves as the true contenders, potentially the favorites to win it all.  There is a lot of basketball to play anything can happen over these next few months but as you watched the destruction of an extremely talented Kentucky team you could almost hear a collective groan from the rest of the college basketball world.

Fantasy Football- Players we hate

The NFL season is half way over, which means that fantasy playoffs are right around the corner.  If you are a playoff team you probably avoided these players. Let’s list off the top five players we hate (that we drafted).

This list is based on guys that have been playing but not producing.  If they are injured I give them a pass.  If they are LeVeon Bell I refuse to speak his name out loud in public.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry was suppose to have his coming out party in the playoffs last year.  Damn was I wrong.  The Titans left DeMarco Murray walk in the off season, which meant that Henry would be the guy right?? Nope Dion Lewis has taken over the bulk of the carries in the backfield.  Henry is averaging a staggering 3.3 yards per carry so far in 2018.

Henry also gives you nothing on the receiving end with eight catches the entire season! Henry is trending in the direction of fellow Alabama alumni Trent Richardson, I would look for him to be moved in the off season unless things change drastically. I hate you Derrick Henry!

LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

McCoy has had a great fantasy career, but currently I have the same amount of Touchdowns as he does this season.  It’s zero in case that wasn’t clear.  I know the Buffalo offense is a joke.  Nathan Peterman is the equivalent of a dumpster fire while on the field, but McCoy is still only averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season.  Chris Ivory has become more relevant out of the backfield.   I really don’t need to say much more than that.  I may not have drafted you in any leagues LeSean but I hate you for those who did.

Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins, Kenny Stills, WR, Miami Dolphins

Drake has had his moments this season, especially when I have had to face him.  But overall he has been a bust this season.  The ageless Frank Gore has taken away carries from the 2017-18 fantasy surprise.  Miami has had their issues at Quarterback, starting Brock Osweiler (not sure that’s how you spell it but who cares).  The QB situation has caused problems for the Dolphins but they should still be able to utilize Drake out of the backfield in passing situations but for some reason they refuse to do it consistently.

I added Kenny Stills to this list because I am tired of hearing about his potential.  Stills disappears in games to the point where he literally gets no targets.

Kenyan and Kenny I hate you both equally.

Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Nelson had a great start to the season then the return of Alshon Jeffery made him basically disappear. Agholor had 8 Touchdowns last year, half way through the season he is sitting at one.  He has been so bad that literally the Eagles went out and found a replacement for him at the deadline, adding Golden Tate.

Has Agholor forgotten how to run a route?  Has Carson Wentz forgotten that he is on the team.  Why do you suck now Nelson?  I hate you!