NCAAF Football Picks ATS Week 9

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats +23.5

The Wildcats bring in the perfect matchup for a cover.  Kansas State has been the best in the Big12 at defending the pass, giving up just 152.5 yards pe game, 5thbest in the entire country. That is what Oklahoma is all about.  While I don’t see Kansas State completely shutting down the pass game, I do see them forcing Oklahoma to run the ball more than they would like which can slow up the attack.

Kansas State will look to do what they do best and possess the ball.  They will look to run and run often with work horse runningback James Gilbert. The longer they can keep Jalen Hurts off the field the better chance they have to survive.  

Oklahoma wins, but Kansas State gives them a tough game. 

Pick: Kansas State +23.5

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

This was supposed to be a matchup of undefeated powerhouses.  Wisconsin may have been looking too far ahead as they became the biggest upset of 2019, losing to Illinois on a last second field goal.  The Badgers turned the ball over three times against the Illini, which helped blow  20-7 second half lead. 

Ohio State has done everything possible to show that they are the cream of the crop in college football, dominating every game. The competition hasn’t been great, that all changes on Saturday.  Despite their loss Wisconsin still sees themselves as the top of the food chain in the Big10. The Badgers have to come out and establish Jonathon Taylor early and often. Wisconsin is averaging 38 minutes of possession per game. They will work to grind out the Buckeyes and force them to play from behind, something they have not done at all this season.  

Wisconsin is the biggest test for the Buckeyes this season, Ohio State QB Justin Fields has not seen a defense that can bring the pressure the way Wisconsin can.  Buckeyes win but they are tested.

Pick: Wisconsin +14.5

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans +6.5

Michigan State’s offense has disappeared since their shocking loss to Arizona State.  The Spartans have averaged a paltry 5.7 points per game over their last three.  Michigan State has not shown the ability to play up to the higher level of competition. Ohio State and Wisconsin beat the hell out of the Sparty, and they will have similar trouble coming their way on Saturday.

Sophomore QB Sean Clifford has been superb with a 56% completion percentage, helping the Nitany Lions get out to a 7-0 start.  Despite the 7-0 start Penn State has had trouble covering against ranked opponents, failing to cover against Michigan and Iowa.   They have a terrible history versus Michigan State, going 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six matchups.  

Penn State’s history is not what I am worried about.  Looking past Michigan State is the only thing that I am worried about.  This matchup is not as highly regarded as it would be if Michigan State hadn’t been embarrassed by Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Penn State has to stay focused and overcome the recent history of these two teams.  Penn State’s offense is just too strong for Michigan State’s defense to handle.  Penn State will grab a lead early and that will be to much for the Spartans to overcome. 

Pick: Penn State -6.5

Other Games:

Texas -1

App State -27

Marshall/ Western Kentucky over 44.5

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 9

Last week went pretty well going 5-3 with my picks.  Cincinnati blew the game against Temple and Mizzou actually showed up against Memphis.  But 5-3 brings me back to .500.  Let’s look into this week’s games.

Wisconsin Badgers -4.5 at Northwestern Wildcats

The Badgers entered the season looking for a National Championship.  Those dreams died at the hands of the BYU Cougars.  They continued to get buried against surging Michigan two weeks ago.  The bounce back came last week against the Illini and it will continue Saturday against Northwestern.

The Wildcats are as one-dimensional averaging just 2.9 yards per carry.  Sure the Wisconsin secondary is not great but they are well coached and will be able to shut down the one strength of Northwestern.

Alex Hornibrook will come up big against a weak Northwestern pass rush.  Look for Hornibrook to play above is usual level allowing RB Jonathon Taylor to run wild.

PicksWisconsin -4.5

Vanderbilt Commodores at Arkansas Razorbacks, 53.5

Vandy being favored at Arkansas shows the decline of the Razorbacks program. Arkansas will enter this game giving up 34, 24, 65, and 37 points against SEC teams.  While the Commodores are not an offensive juggernaut they should be able to move the ball.  This game is more about two teams that don’t play very good defense in the SEC.

This game could be garbage or it could be a scoring marathon.  I am betting on scoring.

PicksOver 53.5

Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers -7

I have gone back and forth on Missouri all season.  I don’t believe Drew Lock is as good as people think especially in big games, but he has his moments. His moment will come this weekend against the Kentucky Wildcats.

Kentucky has not shut down a good offense.  There wins have come against a struggling Mississippi State, a so-so South Carolina and a dreadful Vanderbilt team. They will need to put up points in Columbia.  Even if I don’t believe in Lock long-term the talent is still there.

The Missouri defense’s biggest weakness is their pass defense.  Kentucky QB Terry Wilson has yet to throw for more than 151 yards during their 6-1 start. Benny Snell will get his but they will fall behind early on the road and won’t be able to get themselves out of trouble.

PicksMissouri -7

Texas Longhorns -3.5 at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Texas is on the rise.  Since their lose to Maryland in week one they have taken no prisoners.  Wins over Oklahoma, TCU and USC have helped put them right in the National Championship conversation.  Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is very questionable for this game, with bigger matchups coming up for Texas I can see them taking a conservative approach with him in this game.

Junior, Shane Buechele will most likely get the start.  Buechele may not have the skills of Ehlinger but he did get starts for Texas during his freshman season, so the moment should not be too big for the Junior.

The Longhorns have owned Oklahoma State in Stillwater, winning 8 of 9 game against them.  The Longhorns need this game more then the Cowboys, it will show on Saturday.

PicksTexas -3.5

 

Other Picks:

Virginia -9

Oklahoma -24.5

South Florida +7.5