NCAA Football Week Ten Picks ATS

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Golden Eagles -2.5

Boston College has been undervalued for the last few weeks (Excluding their matchup with Clemson). Florida State is dealing with inner turmoil after firing Willie Taggert mid-week.  Clemson was the only team that was successful in stacking the box to stop AJ Dillon.  Florida State will stack the box on Saturday but that won’t stop the 230-pound Junior running back.

Florida State has been bad on the road 0-3 while not covering the spread in any of those games. The Boston College running game will be able to wear down the Seminole defense which should allow for a dominate victory for the Golden Eagles. 

Boston College will be celebrating Senior day and Florida State has to many questions to trust them to cover this small spread.

Pick: Boston College Golden Eagles -2.5

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans -Total 45.5

This game is simple. Michigan State has hit he under in 13 of their last 16 games.  Illinois has hit the under in 4 of their last 5 games.  

Illinois has a mediocre offense.  They now face a defense that has dominated lesser competition.  Illinois has taken advantage of other teams’ mistakes, scoring 105 points off of turnovers this season.  Michigan State will not turn the ball over, look for them to run the ball and dominate the field.  Without the reliance on turnovers the Illinois offense doesn’t bring enough to the table on Saturday.  Boring game, easy under.

Pick: Under 45.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Tech Hokies +2

Virginia Tech is 1-4 against the spread at home.  That’s right they are terrible at home. They get a matchup with a Wake Forest team that comes in underrated once again this week.

The Virginia Tech secondary is getting loaded, allowing 340 yards or more in three of the last four games. Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman is coming off of one of his most impressive victories of the season, dominating NC State last week.  This is bad matchup for the Hokies as they don’t have the secondary to matchup.  Newman has a repeat dominant performance, one that will assure him the spot of ACC Offensive player of the year. 

I’m taking Wake and not worrying about it. 

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2

Other Picks:

LSU +6

Kentucky -1

Penn State -7

Georgia -16.5

NCAAF- Picks ATS

Switching to primarily NCAAF picks worked pretty well last week going 4-2.  This week has some good lines, so let’s make some picks.

Oklahoma -7 vs. Texas

The game of the weekend no matter what their records, is the Red River Showdown. Oklahoma is coming off a dominant victory over lesser competition in the Baylor Bears.  Now they look to establish themselves as a true contender against the most improved team since week 1 the Texas Longhorns.

I am immediately drawn to the QB matchup.  Kyler Murray vs Sam Ehlinger. Sam Ehlinger has a passer rating of just 139.7 entering Week 6 – seventh in the Big 12 and nearly 100 points lower than Murray’s 231.6. Despite his issue the Oklahoma secondary has not been a steal trap, allowing 252 yards per game.  This looks like strong matchup for Ehlinger. But I have watched Ehlinger and don’t believe he will be able to match with Murray and what this Oklahoma offense brings to the table.

Texas is a popular pick to cover here coming off three straight impressive victories against USC, TCU and K-State. They will most likely have the homefield advantage despite this being a “neutral site” game.  But I am not buying Ehlinger in this situation.

PicksOklahoma -7

Iowa State at Oklahoma State -9

The Cowboys pulled of the cover late last week against the pesky Kansas Jayhawks so let’s ride the cover train. This is going to be a simple breakdown.  I love going with a team that has a high level offense against a team that can have serious problems scoring. The Cyclones are averaging just 17 points per game.  The offense will need more then that on Saturday.

Justice Hill will close it out by dominating the second half.

PicksOK State -9

Notre Dame -6.5 at Virginia Tech

Notre Dame has looked like a different team since Ian Book took over in week 4.  Book has completed an astounding 74% of his passes since entering as the Irish QB. Virginia Tech has been a dumpster fire versus that pass this season ranking 123rd in the nation.

Blacksburg will be a tough atmosphere to play but the Irish are accustomed to tough environments.  The Irish also have a defense that will reek havoc for the Hokies.  Virginia tech will give them a scare but I think in the end Book will lead Notre Dame to a comfortable victory on the road.

PicksNotre Dame -6.5

Syracuse at Pittsburgh -3.5

The Orange could be physically battered after a tough matchup with Clemson last week. While they may be physically tired the Panthers pride may have taken the beating of a lifetime getting steamrolled by the “Defending National Champs” UCF.

Syracuse still has their sights set on an ACC title.  They showed the nation that their defense can play at a high level to go along with a offense that has put up over 30 in 4 of 5 games and 23 against a stout Clemson defense.  Dino Babers is my hero, he loves to cover.  Being at home will help Pittsburgh but they are at the bottom of the ACC in both defense and offense for a reason.

PicksSyracuse -3.5

Utah at Stanford -5

The Cardinal were blown out last week versus Notre Dame.  But let’s remember that was their second straight tough road game.  They return home to play a team that has seemed to find a way to lose in conference the last two weeks. The potential that Heisman Runner Up Bryce Love doesn’t play is not as scary as it would have been a year ago. Being less reliant on the run game may be a good thing for the Stanford offense.

This comes down to defense, ability and homefield advantage.  The Cardinal may not impress on Saturday but they should do enough to cover.

Picks Stanford -5

 

No time to write up the rest.  Not official picks yet, just leans that may change on Saturday morning.

Mizzou +1

Memphis

Boston College +6

Navy -3

Memphis -35.5

Auburn -4

Wake Forest +20