CBB Picks ATS 2.23.19

Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers

Tennessee was primed to make a statement last week in Lexington. They had control of the SEC and could bury the “mighty” Kentucky Wildcats.  Instead they saw an end to their 20-game winning streak and found themselves just one game up the aforementioned Wildcats and their opponents on Saturday the LSU Tigers.

This is a matchup of offensive teams both ranking in the top ten in scoring in all of college basketball.  The difference on Saturday will be the ability of either team to establish themselves on the defensive end.  In LSU’s loss to Florida on Wednesday night the Tigers were unable to adjust to a Florida that tried to slow down the pace. If Tennessee is able to establish a slower pace and dominate the ball control LSU will not be able to adjust.

We have seen the Volunteers win scrappy games when they have to.   I like Jordan Bone holding Tremont Waters in check and the Volunteers to prevail on the road.  I’m not going to worry about last week or the Rick Barnes curse.  Give me the Volunteers in a huge SEC game.

Pick: Tennessee -1

Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

Every week I look at Maryland and see a potential second weekend team.  It could be my love for the traditional big that you really only see in college basketball.  Bruno Fernando is a throwback to the basketball I watched as a kid.  Throw it to the big man and impose your will.  The sophomore center enjoyed his matchup in Columbus putting up 13 point and 15 rebounds.  He will be on the attack early against Ohio State’s Kaleb Wesson whom was no match in the first meeting.  If Wesson gets into foul trouble the deficiencies of Ohio State’s depth will show.

Neither team will bring a potent offensive attack, but if Maryland is able to avoid a sluggish start that they are known for they should be able to coast to an easy victory at home.  They also have to find a way to cut down on their turnovers.  If they play smart and feed Fernando early it will open up looks for the slick shooting freshman guard Aaron Wiggins whom has hit 9 of 18 from behind the arc over the teams last 3 games. 

Maryland is 3-0 ATS in their last three home games.  Give me Maryland to cover. Take care of the ball!

Pick: Maryland -6.5

Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange

We all know Duke without Zion Williamson is going to cause some problems.  What is being ignored is that a healthy Tre Jones is back in the lineup for the Blue Devils.  In the first matchup his injury forced the Blue Devils to run the point with RJ Barrett and company.  With Jones as the helm Barrett will be free to work inside the Syracuse zone.  His ability to create at the top of the key will be a huge factor.  I assume Coach K will utilize one of his big’s in Zion’s spot, while that may be the game plan to start don’t be surprised to see a lot of sharp shooting sophomore Alex O’Connell. 

Syracuse shot lights out in the first matchup, Frank Howard will have the defense of Tre Jones hounding him all night which will lead to more turnovers not allowing the Orange to set their press.  Duke has the superior athletes even without Zion.  If utilized correctly they should cover the spread.

Pick: Duke -4.5

Other games I like:

Illinois/Penn State Under 145.5

MO State/ Indiana State Under 131.5

Purdue -5

Marquette -3

Texas +3.5

Kansas State -10.5

SLU +6.5

I Talk Sports Picks- NCAAF

After a few tough weeks of NFL I have decided to separate my NCAA picks.  Last week I went 7-2 with a lot of late picks cashing, including Michigan State, Stanford and Wisconsin.  Here are the five picks I that jumped out to me first.

Syracuse at Clemson -25

Syracuse enters this matchup at 4-0 for the first time since 1991.  Matching up with the beasts of the ACC the Clemson Tigers on Saturday will be a true test to see where the program is.  While Clemson deals with the semi-distraction of the transferring Kelly Bryant they can’t look past this he Orange. The Orange are trying to prove that last year’s win over Clemson wasn’t a fluke and that they’re a legitimate ACC contender. A win this Saturday would most certainly do that and potentially land them in the Top 25 for Week 6.

You can be bold here and take Syracuse to upset Clemson, but I am not that bold.  I do think this spread is a bit large for this matchup.  Syracuse is good and they should keep this close.

PicksSyracuse +25

Indiana -16.5 at Rutgers

Rutgers got blown out by Kansas.   That’s Kansas Football.  With basically no passing game.  After a nice start to the season against Texas State Scarlet Knight quarterbacks have combined to complete just 44% of their passes with no touchdowns, five interceptions, and absolutely nothing happening down the field.

This is more about how bad Rutgers is then how good Indiana is.  Don’t worry about where the number goes right now you have to fade Rutgers no matter what.

PicksIndiana -16.5

Oklahoma State -17 at Kansas

I have picked on Kansas all year.  It finally paid off versus Baylor.  This weekend it will pay off again as the Cowboys come to town.  This is a simple case of to much offense for Kansas to stay afloat in this one. Oklahoma State quarterback Taylor Cornelius has thrown for 1,229 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Justice Hill leads the Cowboys in rushing with 388 yards and five touchdowns. The leading receiver is Tylan Wallace with 442 yards and two touchdowns. Tyron Johnson has 206 receiving.

This is the best offense Kansas has seen and they will have no answers for it.  Oklahoma State literally doubles total yardage both rushing and receiving on a game to game basis.  OK State takes over early and never looks back.

PicksOklahoma State -17

Arkansas vs Texas A&M -21 (Neutral Site)

Arkansas has been down right embarrassing to start the season scoring just 47 points over their last 3 games while giving up 112 to opposing offenses.  They now get a matchup with a Texas A&M team that has been averaging 300 passing yards and 250 rushing yards a game.   The Aggies have also covered in its last five games.

This will be a chance to Texas A&M to run up a score on a team that looks to have all but given up any chance of winning this season.

PicksTexas A&M -21

Pittsburgh at Central Florida -13.5

In last weeks game against North Carolina, the Panthers defense stayed home and allowed 476 total yardage against a North Carolina squad that had been struggling and battling injuries.  They now face arguably the best offense in college football when they face the “National Champion” Central Florida Knights.

I am going to keep it simple here.  Central Florida at home steamrolls a struggling defense.  Mac Milton throws for 330yards and 4TD’s.

PicksCentral Florida -13.5

 

ACC Tourney Day 1 Predictions

The ACC Tournament begins today with three matchups that most people won’t give a second look to when passing it on their TV screens.  While the big boys of arguable the best conference in college basketball are waiting for their matchups to develop, we think there is not only some entertainment value today but also some betting value.  Let’s break it down.

12- Boston College (-3) vs. 13-Georgia Tech

This game stood out to me right away.  Two teams without much to play for.  Boston College opens as the early favorite in this one, gaining a point over night.  The fact is that while Boston College is the closer of the two teams to the bubble, neither will most likely make the tournament unless they win out.

My early lean was on Georgia Tech, the better defensive team, but as I dug deeper the numbers don’t seem to match my gut reaction. Boston College won the only matchup between the two teams in a game that took place in early February.  The three headed attacks of guards, Ky Bowman, Jordan Chatman and surprising leading ACC scorer Jerome Robison all put up 17+ points.  At 6-foot-6 Robison causes real mismatches for Georgia Tech, his ability to score as well as facility should allow the Eagles to score at will.

If Georgia Tech cannot make the stops needed on defense, they will be forced to rely on what was one of the worst offenses in the nation.  The Yellow Jackets are riding a modest two game win streak into this matchup, but I think the dynamic guard play of Jerome Robison and leadership of Ky Bowman is to much for Georgia Tech.

Boston College -3

10- Notre Dame (-17) vs. 15-Pittsburgh

There really isn’t much to say about this matchup.  Notre Dame is a dangerous team with Bonzie Colson back and Pittsburgh’s team and fanbase want to forget this season ever happened.

Pittsburgh has not won a game in the ACC, their is no reason to think they will win this one.  The Fighting Irish are favored by 17,  normally in an ACC game I would say that is to much but in this one I am taking it.

Notre Dame -17

11- Syracuse (-5) vs 14-Wake Forest

It’s March that means three things, the weather is getting better, day light savings time and Syracuse being on the bubble.  The Orange enter a matchup with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons today in a must win situation.

Syracuse’s main issue today will be containing sharp shooter Byrant Crawford. Crawford has lit up the Syracuse press in both meetings this year averaging 21.5PPG in the two previous meetings. If Wake Forest comes out firing in the first half the Orange will have to make an adjustment defensively.

Tyus Battle will have to carry the load offensively for the Orange as he did int he previus matchup with Wake Forest scoring 34 points.  Battle will must penetrate the Demon Deacon defense and make good decisions.  If Syracuse settles for 3-pointers they may find them selves in the NIT next week.

These two teams split the season series, both winning on their home courts. This tournament being in the Barclay’s Center should make it a pro-Syracuse crowd.  The Orange have a lot more to play for tonight an as we saw last night in the BYU vs. St. Mary’s game that can make a huge difference.

Syracuse -5