SEC Football

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 9

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Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans +4

Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football. Under second year coach Mel Tucker the Spartans have thrived on both sides of the ball.  The Spartans have Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker in the backfield.  Walker has run for 997 yards and 9 touchdowns on the season. The Spartan offense will lean on the run, but they also have a solid passing game behind QB Payton Thorne.  Thorne has thrown for fifteen touchdowns and just four interceptions.  The Michigan front is tough but they will be forced to stack the box to stop the run, which will allow for man coverage for Thorne to pick apart.  Thorne has two different receivers, Jayden Reed and Josh Nailor, both have 27 catches and both are going to be big problems for the Michigan defense.

Michigan has the exact same strategy on offense.  They will lean on the run in order to set up the pass. The Wolverines have two runners, Blake Corum and Hassan Hankins both have run for over 600 yards on the season. The Michigan State defense has been very good against the run.  The Spartans are holding opposing Big Ten teams to just 3.3 yards per carry.  If Michigan cannot establish the run they will have to rely on Cade McNamara for the first time this season.  McNamara is averaging just 21 throws per game and has only thrown two balls over 40 yards. 

Both teams average 200 yards on the ground, both average 30+ points per game.  Both have solid defenses, giving up just 18 ppg (Michigan) and 14 ppg (Michigan State).  The difference will be the QB play. Payton Thorne has the ability to take over the game, Cade McNamara has not shown that same ability.  Jim Harbaugh has not won the big game in his career at Michigan, this one is the biggest game of 2021.  The Spartans are not the team of 2020, their explosive offense will set them apart on Saturday, as well as their advantage at home.  I love the Spartans at +4, but it’s worth it to go after the ML.

Pick: Michigan State Spartans ML +160 or +4 for safety net

Arkansas State Red Wolves at South Alabama Jaguars -9

South Alabama QB Jake Bently has led the Jaguar offense all year.  Bently has thrown for 1,825 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season.  The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS at home this season.  The offense will be able to put up points against a putrid defense, but their key advantage will be on the defensive side of the ball. South Alabama is top 5 in the country against the pass.  Bently and company will be able to put up points at will and their defense matches up perfectly with the Red Wolves biggest strength.

Arkansas State has lost 6 in a row, including all three of their road contests.  The Red Wolves have been a powerhouse through the air this season (348 yards per game).  Most of their air yards have come due to the inability to stop the opposing offense.  The Arkansas State defense ranks dead last in the country against the run and dead last in rush offense. The Red Wolves inability will make it tough for QB James Blackmon to run the offense that they want.  

South Alabama is coming off of a bad loss to UL Monroe, they will be motivated in front of their home crowd to make a statement.  The defense will be the difference in a high scoring affair.  The Jaguars will take a few punches but they ultimately will take the lead and run with it. 

Pick: South Alabama Jaguars -9

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs 

Kentucky is coming off of a miracle cover over powerhouse Georgia two weeks ago. They got a week off and now will go on the road to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  The Wildcats are 2-0 ATS on the road, both against SEC opponents.  In contrast the Bulldogs are just 1-3 ATS at home.  

The Bulldogs are good offensively.  QB Will Rogers has completed 73% of his passes, helping his team to average 423 yards of offense per game (50th in nation).  Rogers has had his struggles during the season, throwing seven interceptions and getting sacked 20 times.  Mississippi State will have to try and limit the Kentucky pass rush. The Wildcats are very good at applying pressure at 6.78% sack percentage while only giving up 17 ppg on the season. 

Kentucky will not have a walk in the park on offense.  The Bulldogs shut down the run, allowing just 98 yards per game. The matchup of the Miss State defense against star RB Chris Rodriguez should make for an interesting matchup.  Rodriguez has rushed for 775 yards, adding 5 touchdowns as the cornerstone of the Kentucky offense.  Kentucky QB Will Levis will give him some room to run, his dink and dunk game should allow them to move the ball downfield and wear down the defense.  

This game is going to be a gritty matchup between two teams that rely a lot on their defense.  The Bulldogs have had a problem protecting the QB and that will be exasporated on Saturday.  Kentucky will get pressure on Will Rogers which will lead to turnovers and Wildcat touchdowns.  

Pick: Kentucky ML -105

NCAAF Week 6 Picks ATS

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East Carolina Pirates at Central Florida Knights -10

Two teams heading in different directions meet this weekend when the East Carolina Pirates, coming off of 3 straight wins, take on the Central Florida Knights, coming off of 2 straight losses.  

Central Florida brings name value to this game, which is why they are getting ten points against a powerful offensive unit.  The Pirates are averaging 30 ppg this season behind fourth year QB Holten Ahlers and freshman RB Keenan Mitchell.  The latter has been a force on the ground, averaging 9.4 yards per carry on the season, coming off a dominant effort against Tulane.  Mitchell went for 222 yards and two touchdowns against Tulane.  The ECU offense will have an advantage against the Knights.  UCF will not be able to stop the ground game and as long as they hold onto the ball they will be able to score at will.

UCF will have to deal with the loss of QB Dillon Gabriel.  In his place is Mikey Keene, who has been solid this season but does not bring the resume of Gabriel.  UCF will have to take advantage of the ECU’s poor pass defense, that is giving up 320 yards through the air. They will have to throw because it looks like leading rushers Isaiah Bowser could possibly miss the game.  

Both of these teams share the same problem, they seem to ignore the defensive side of the ball.  The Knights are not the contenders of a few seasons ago, they will have trouble pulling away from East Carolina, this is a one score game and potentially an upset pick. 

Pick: East Carolina Pirates +10, over 67

Michigan State Spartans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights Total 50

Michigan State has exploded up the CFB rankings with a hot start to the season. With victories over Northwestern, Nebraska, Western Kentucky and Miami the Spartans have found themselves ranked #11 in the country. They also take care of business, covering the spread in 3 of 4 games.  The Spartans have been a top notch offensive team all season, they have averaged 37 points per game.  RB Kenneth Walker has been an unstoppable force, he leads the nation in rushing yards with 680 and top five in TD’s with 8.  Rutgers will have to stack the box to slow him down,  but all they will be able to do is slow him down rather than stop him. If they do stack the box, QB Payton Thorne will pick them apart efficiently.  Thorne has 11 TDs and just one interception on the season.  He will get a lot of man to man coverage that his talented receivers will be able to exploit.  

Michigan State’s secondary has been troubling.  Last week the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers lit them up and it was the same story against Miami and Northwestern.  They have given up an average of 300 yards through the air this season.  Rutgers is a run first team but QB Noah Vedral has the ability to throw the deep ball and will test the secondary.  Rutgers has been dominated by superior talent but they should be able to put the points up on the board to keep it competetive at home.  

Michigan State has hit the over in 3 of 5 games and will be able to move the ball for explosive plays consistently on the ground. Rutgers will just need to get in the end zone twice against Michigan State, I see this as a route for the Spartans in the second half leading to a nice higher scoring victory.

Pick: Over 50

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies are coming off of two straight SEC losses, one on the road to a revamped Arkansas team and at home against Mississippi State. They will welcome in the Alabama Crimson Tide who reminded us who is the top dog in the conference and in all of college football by putting a beating on Ole Miss last week 42-21. 

Texas A&M has not only lost their last two games, but they have looked abysmal on offense.  In both losses they totaled less than 300 yards of total offense and still have a lot of questions at the QB position.  The Aggies have more turnovers than touchdowns this year. A team that can’t hold on to the football will now get to face the SEC’s top turnover margin team.  Bama will be able to get constant pressure on QB Zac Calzada and force him into long yardage situations, the worst nightmare for A&M.  

Since their close call to Florida three weeks ago the Crimson Tide have been as impressive as can be.  They held Heisman hopeful Matt Corral to just 213 yards and one touchdown.  They ran all over Ole Miss, gaining over 200 yards on the ground.  Alabama RB’s are dealing with some injuries but should be good to go on Saturday.  The Crimson Tide will have to deal with a tough Aggie defense but they are still going to be able to put up the points necessary to pull away in the end.  The A&M offense does not have the ability to put up the points to make this one interesting. Let’s not ignore the fact that Aggie Head Coach Jimbo Fisher has given Saban’s squad some nice bulletin board material with some comments in the Houston Chronicle.  The dogs will not be called off and Crimson Tide will make another SEC statement.

Pick: Alabama -18