NCAAB Play of the day: Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats

The Sooners are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games, including victories over Alabama, Texas, Kansas and West Virginia.  With a litany of big victories under their belt they came out flat in their last matchup against Iowa State, sneaking by the Cyclones by only ten points and failing to cover the spread.  I expect Lon Kruger’s bunch will come out to set the tone early on the road against the cellar dweller Kansas State.  They will look to make quick work of a team that historically they have not had a lot of success against.  

Oklahoma is not an offensive juggernaut, when they do score, they do it efficiently, ranking 31st in offensive efficiency.  Austin Reaves, De’Vion Harmon and Brady Manek all average double figures and should be able to have their way with a less than stellar Kansas State defense that gives up 72 ppg and 46% shooting.  In their first matchup of the year Oklahoma handled Kansas State winning 76-50 on January 19th.  They were able to cover the spread while only shooting 11/21 from the free throw line.  It was their top 20 ranked defense that shined forcing 23 Wildcat turnovers.

Kansas State has no offensive identity, because they don’t score.  They average just 61 ppg with an effective field goal percentage of 47.6 on the season ranking them near the bottom. They don’t shoot three well (29%) and they can’t make anything from the free throw line (65%), their leading scorer is Nijuel Pack who averages 12 per game, he didn’t play in their first matchup with the Sooners but he will have a tough task of going against Reaves and Harmon, they will lock him down and stop any kind of K-State offensive push.  The Wildcats don’t have any kind of home court advantage either, they are 3-12 ATS at Bramlage Coliseum.

Oklahoma is better in every facet of the game and will show it on Tuesday night. 10.5 points on the road is a lot but the Sooners have a defense that will hold K-State under 60 and Lon Kruger will take advantage of multiple mis-matches.  

 Play of the day: Oklahoma Sooners -10.5

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct 10

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Liberty Flames -19

The Liberty Flames offense is overwhelming.  They average 81 plays per game, which is top 15 in all of college football. Dual threat quarterback Mailk Willis had the offense moving in their week one upset of Western Kentucky.  The Auburn transfer rushed for 168 yards and 3 touchdowns in against the Hilltoppers leading to a victory as 14.5 point dogs.  

The Flames followed up their upset victory with two more wins over Nortern Alabama and FIU. Both games missed the cover but the momentum of the victories should have them ready to take care of business against the lowly Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. ULM gives up rushing yards in bunches ranking 127th in college football against the run.  Willis should be able to control the game with his ability to run and his sneaky passing attack.  

Liberty is a veteran team that has won seven consecutive games at home dating back to last year and they will not look past ULM.  ULM is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home. 

Pick: Liberty -19

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -2.5 

Two teams that have underperformed to start the season meet in a rivalry game that will have a lot less impact on the college football playoff than most would have thought at the beginning of the season.   These two teams are both in need of a win and a statement game.  

Sooner redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler has been a roller coaster in his first three starts throwing for 290, 387, and 300.  He has had a problem with turnovers in the clutch with four picks against Big 12 opponents.  The pressure will be on in his first go round in the Red River Showdown.  His matchup with the Texas Longhorns will be favorable. Texas is coming off back to back games giving up 56 and 33 to Texas Tech and TCU respectively.  

Texas will have senior Sam Ehlinger running the offense looking for a big win in his final showdown with Oklahoma. The Texas offense is averaging 518 yards and 51 points per game.  Oklahoma has not shown the ability to stop anyone this season and a veteran team that is desperete for a win will be a problem.  

Both teams have great offenses, they will show them off this weekend.  I look for Ehlinger to make the big play down the stretch to win but I am more comfortable with taking the over. 

Pick: Over 72 (lean Texas ML)

LSU Tigers -14 at Missouri Tigers 

This game was supposed to be played at Baton Rouge, due to hurricane Delta this game was moved to Columbia, Missouri.  The move caused a line change from -20 to -14.  Missouri is 1-9 ATS in their last ten games.  They have given up 35 and 38 respectively over their last two games.  Matching up with an LSU offense that isn’t the same national title contending group but they are still no walk in the park. 

Missouri found some offense once they inserted Connor Bazelak into the lineup over TCU transfer Shawn Robinson. They will have to be on their game early because if they let LSU grab a lead they still haven’t figured out how to turn yardage into touchdowns.   

Missouri’s inability to get stops on third down crushed them last week against Tennessee.  If they can’t get off the field their defense will wear down. LSU QB Myles Brennan has thrown for 330 or over in each game along with seven touchdowns   If he finds it early and grabs a lead they will coast the rest of the way. 

Pick: LSU -14

NCAAF Picks ATS

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs +18

Alabama just lost. That means someone is going to have to take a beating.  Mississippi State has had problems all year against talented quarterbacks allowing four straight to compete 71% of their passes.  The Bulldogs don’t have the defensive front to pressure Tua Taguvailoa at all.  If Tua is allowed to sit in the pocket, the secondary will be getting their sprints in before next weeks practice. having to chase down the Crimson Tide receivers as they enter the end zone over and over again. I see Jerry Juedy going for 200 yards on Saturday.

This will be the most focused team in the country this weekend.  The Mississippi Bulldogs are in the wrong place at the wrong time.  Shocking to me that this went from -21 to -18 .

 Pick Alabama -18

Massachusetts Minutemen at Northwestern Wildcats Total: 56.5

Northwestern can’t score. Averaging a shocking 11 points per game this season as well as the least efficient passing game in college football. Northwestern has only put up a total of 38 points over their last five games in total.  Obviously their inefficiencies were  against much stiffer competition, but I still can’t see a possible way that Northwestern puts up over 40 points in this game.  

A took a shot on Vandy/Florida game last week, assuming Florida would dominate but keep Vanderbilt off the board.  The difference here is I just can’t imagine Northwestern being able to put up the kind of points that they need to hit the over. 

Pick: Under 56.5

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears Total 67.5

Jalen Hurts has been better than his predecessors Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.  Seriously, look at the statistics 869 rushing yards and 24 throwing touchdowns.  Hurts has been everything Oklahoma could possibly want.  The problem will not be on the offense Saturday, the Sooners defense has shown an inability to stop competitive teams.  Iowa State  and Kansas State both put up 40 points against the Sooners offense. The Baylor Bears have been solid on offense this year ranking 26thin the nation in scoring, averaging 35.3 point per game this season.  

Baylor has hit the over at three of their four home games in this season and they should be able to move the ball enough put points on the board.  The Bears will put up a fight at home but the Oklahoma offense will be impossible to stop.  This game should be a shootout, this total is way to low.  Give me the over.

Pick: Over 67.5

Other Picks:

Florida -7

Memphis -10.5

West Virginia/Kansas State Under 47.5

NCAAF Football Picks ATS Week 9

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats +23.5

The Wildcats bring in the perfect matchup for a cover.  Kansas State has been the best in the Big12 at defending the pass, giving up just 152.5 yards pe game, 5thbest in the entire country. That is what Oklahoma is all about.  While I don’t see Kansas State completely shutting down the pass game, I do see them forcing Oklahoma to run the ball more than they would like which can slow up the attack.

Kansas State will look to do what they do best and possess the ball.  They will look to run and run often with work horse runningback James Gilbert. The longer they can keep Jalen Hurts off the field the better chance they have to survive.  

Oklahoma wins, but Kansas State gives them a tough game. 

Pick: Kansas State +23.5

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

This was supposed to be a matchup of undefeated powerhouses.  Wisconsin may have been looking too far ahead as they became the biggest upset of 2019, losing to Illinois on a last second field goal.  The Badgers turned the ball over three times against the Illini, which helped blow  20-7 second half lead. 

Ohio State has done everything possible to show that they are the cream of the crop in college football, dominating every game. The competition hasn’t been great, that all changes on Saturday.  Despite their loss Wisconsin still sees themselves as the top of the food chain in the Big10. The Badgers have to come out and establish Jonathon Taylor early and often. Wisconsin is averaging 38 minutes of possession per game. They will work to grind out the Buckeyes and force them to play from behind, something they have not done at all this season.  

Wisconsin is the biggest test for the Buckeyes this season, Ohio State QB Justin Fields has not seen a defense that can bring the pressure the way Wisconsin can.  Buckeyes win but they are tested.

Pick: Wisconsin +14.5

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans +6.5

Michigan State’s offense has disappeared since their shocking loss to Arizona State.  The Spartans have averaged a paltry 5.7 points per game over their last three.  Michigan State has not shown the ability to play up to the higher level of competition. Ohio State and Wisconsin beat the hell out of the Sparty, and they will have similar trouble coming their way on Saturday.

Sophomore QB Sean Clifford has been superb with a 56% completion percentage, helping the Nitany Lions get out to a 7-0 start.  Despite the 7-0 start Penn State has had trouble covering against ranked opponents, failing to cover against Michigan and Iowa.   They have a terrible history versus Michigan State, going 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six matchups.  

Penn State’s history is not what I am worried about.  Looking past Michigan State is the only thing that I am worried about.  This matchup is not as highly regarded as it would be if Michigan State hadn’t been embarrassed by Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Penn State has to stay focused and overcome the recent history of these two teams.  Penn State’s offense is just too strong for Michigan State’s defense to handle.  Penn State will grab a lead early and that will be to much for the Spartans to overcome. 

Pick: Penn State -6.5

Other Games:

Texas -1

App State -27

Marshall/ Western Kentucky over 44.5

Championship Week Picks

Pac 12: Utah Utes vs. Washington Huskies -5

The Pac 12 may not be heading to the College Football Playoff but a champion must still be crowned and a participant in the Rose Bowl.

Washington hopes to build off the big victory over rival Washington State in their regular season finale. Washington will have the advantage at QB with Jake Browning, who threw for 2,692 yards and 16 touchdowns during the season.  He will lead an offense that will look to jump out early on Utah.

The Huskies defense was able to hold a powerful Washington State offense to 15 points. The Utes don’t possess the offense to compete with Washington.

PicksWashington -5.5

Big 12: Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -7.5

Let me set the scene.  Two hated rivals.  One looking to not only avenge their only loss but also give themselves a shot at the college football playoff.  The other with the chance to beat their rival twice and keep them out of the college football playoff. This game has ESPN 30 for 30 written all over it.

Kyler Murray has been as good as advertised all season.  He will keep that going against a stout Texas defense.  All season Murray has not been the problem.  The Oklahoma defense is going to the be issue in this game.  Texas QB Sam Ehlinger was impressive in their first matchup throwing for 314 yards and two touchdowns.  Texas is a tough matchup for the Sooners,  they are 6-0 ATS versus Oklahoma in their last six.  Oklahoma wins but its close.

PicksTexas +7.5

AAC: Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights -3.5

Mackenzie Milton’s injury season ending injury may be to much to overcome for the “National Champs”.  Memphis enters this game with thoughts of last years epic showdown in the AAC Championship game, losing by a touchdown in double overtime.  The Tigers are out for blood in this one, looking to end the UCF 24-game win streak and any hope for the Knights to make it into the College Football Playoff. 

Memphis will run the ball straight down the throats of the UCF defense, managing the clock and dominating the time of possession. Look for Memphis to stack the box and make unproven true freshman QB Darriel Mack Jr. make throws down field.  Even if Mack Jr. does play well it will still be a lot to overcome.  I like Memphis to cover the +5.5 and I may even look to the moneyline.

PicksMemphis +3.5

SEC: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs. Georgia Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have seen Tua in their nightmares for about a year now.  They will have a chance to face their fears on Saturday as they go into the SEC Championship.  

The betting public is going to look at Georgia’s loss to LSU and compare it to the domination Alabama showed against LSU.  I am looking at these two teams differently.  I see a Georgia team fighting for their life with a QB Jake Fromm that has no fear of Alabama. Georgia surrenders the 10th-fewest points per game at 17.2 and the 14th-fewest passing yards per game at 175.1. 

Alabama is a juggernaut of offense but their defense has shown holes this season. Georgia will come out and take an early lead and ride it until the 4th quarter where Tua makes the big plays necessary to overcome them.  This game is going to be a good one and a lot closer then the point spread is going to be. 

PicksGeorgia -13.5

ACC: Clemson Tigers -26.5 vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

I’m not wasting a lot of time on this one.  Pittsburgh is overmatched this one should be a beatdown of epic proportion.  Do I hope I am wrong? Yes.  But unlikely, Clemson rolls into the College Football Playoff. 

PicksClemson Tigers -26.5

Big 10: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

Ohio State opened some eyes last week in their beatdown of rival Michigan last week. The Buckeyes defense finally showed up in the win against Michigan, but they still have to prove that they can consistently play at a high level. As good as the defense looked it has been Dwayne Haskins that has been playing at a NFL level.  He was second only to Gardner Minshew in passing yards this season, had five more touchdown passes than runner-up Will Grier, and torched the FBS’ top defense from Michigan for 396 passing yards, six passing TDs and 62 points in The Game.

Northwestern enters this matchup as over achievers in a matchup that does fit their strengths.  The Wildcats are 79th ranked passing defense in the country giving up 238 yards per game on average.  

The Buckeyes not only need to win this game but they have to show that they are a dominant force.  Urban Meyer won’t take his foot off the gas in this one. 

PicksOhio State -13.5