New York Mets

Why the Mets stunk in 2021

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It’s always hard to admit when you are wrong. It happens and this season it happened to me when I predicted that the New York Mets were going to win the NL East.  After watching a three game sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals at home I realized that the New York Mets straight up stink.

On April 1st the New York Mets signed superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor to a ten-year deal.  The addition of Lindor to go along with Pete Alonso will be cornerstones of the offensive side of the ball.  The Mets organization has shown that they will do anything to get to the top of the NL East.  They continue to make moves to try and fill in their vacant spots by adding big names in the offseason.  They opened the season as one of the hottest teams in baseball, taking control of the division up until the midway point of the season.  New York went on a tailspin that they still have not gotten out of.  

Travel Issues

Teams have troubles on the road in every sport.  The best teams usually can be a few games over .500 or at the very least at .500.  If you want to compete for a playoff spot you have to be able to play on the road and the Mets are not able to do that.  Currently they are 29-44 on the road this season. In retrospect of how that has affected them in the playoff hunt, they are 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves who are 7 games above .500 on the road.  The difference has been the reason that they have fallen behind in the division and out of contention.

No replacements for Degrom

There is no way to replace the best pitcher in baseball. The goal of any team should be to improve the full pitching staff.  You have to find a way to mask the loss rather than look for one person to step into the role.  The Mets did their best, adding Rich Hill, Brad Hand and Trevor Williams to the pitching staff.  Unfortunately the Mets rotation saw second half regression from pitchers that they thought they could depend on.  

Tajuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco, and Tylor Megill were all supposed to be relied upon to help the Mets deal with the injury to their ace.  They all were unable to fill the hole left by the best pitcher in the game and it ultimately caved in their chances at the playoffs.

Walker over his last 15 starts is 1-8 with an ERA over 6.  Post All-Star break Walker has not won a single game.  

Carlos Carrasco was the second piece picked up in the Lindor trade.  Carrasco was not just a throw-in, in 2017 he led the league in wins and sports an impressive career ERA of just 3.82.  When healthy Carrasco was a formidable piece to any rotation.  The Met’s unfortunately did not get a healthy Carrasco, limited to just 10 starts in 2021, he has not been the pitcher of 2017 and 2018, currently he sports an unimpressive 5.82 ERA in just 44 innings.  

Tylor Megill began his 2021 season looking like a diamond in the rough for the Mets.  In July Megill was lights out, pitching 26 innings and giving up just 3 runs in his 5 starts.  Since July Megill seemed to lose his control, sporting an ERA of 7.66 over his last 5 starts.  

You can’t protect Alonso

The Mets have one of the most exciting players in baseball.  Alonso has had a solid season hitting 33 dingers and knocking in 89 runs.  The addition of Francisco Lindor was supposed to help be a table setter for the powerful Alonso, but injuries and inconsistencies at the plate hurt the entire Mets lineup.  Lindor has not been the $300 million spark plug that the Mets were hoping they got.  

Lindor has not been the only problem, an injury to Michael Conforto got him off to a slow start and lineup mainstays Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith and JD Davis are all currently hitting well below their projected numbers.  The Mets as a team are slugging just .325, which ranks in the bottom five of the entire league. 

The Met’s did a great job in addressing this problem at the deadline by acquiring Javy Baez, despite my personal opinion of his abilities, Baez has put up more than solid numbers during his time with the organization.  His slash line of .301/.381/.565 is outstanding but his acquisition was too late for an offense that needed that spark from the start of the season. 

Low Expectations, High Reward Players

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There are stars in baseball and there are roles players. Very few teams can win a division, let alone a championship without multiple pieces doing their part. The Dodgers last season were a team that was made up of stars like Mookie Betts and Clayton Kershaw. They had tons of talent but they would not have been able to win a championship without super utility player Chris Taylor or journeymen turned stars Max Muncy and Justin Turner. Some players have long careers and take a while to find themselves. Some were highly touted prospects that just took a little longer than most expected. This season there are a few players that have stood out to me as potential game changers to already strong rosters.

Christian Arroyo- Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox were looking for some offensive help in the offseason. They added power bat Hunter Renfroe and super utility men Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez.  The off the radar addition of Christain Arroyo has paid off as much if not more then any of them. 

Arroyo was moved to the lead off position to fill the gap left by the struggling Enrique Hernandez.  He has done nothing but produce since the move going 9 for 24. The former Giants first round pick has set the table for the big bats in the lineup, forcing opposing pitchers to challenge Rafael Devers and Xander Bogearts.  

Taking a chance on a former top prospect is always something organizations like to do and Arroyo looks like he may become a late bloomer, he was ranked as high as #62 overall as recently as 2016.  His time with the Giants never panned out, he was moved in the blockbuster deal that brought Evan Longoria to San Franciscio. Never really catching on with the Rays, Arroyo became a journeyman that is finally finding a home, still just 26 years old he could still be an impact player in the league.  He currently boasts a .792 OPS and it is climbing as Red Sox manager Alex Cora has shown big time confidence in him.

Patrick Wisdom- Chicago Cubs

Patrick Wisdom was always that prospect in the St. Louis’ system that the fans were waiting to see make an impact.  That time never occurred in St. Louis, in fact it seemed like Wisdom was never going to cash in on the promise he showed when he smacked 31 homers in triple-A in 2017.  The Cardinals moved on from Wisdom, he ended up in Texas where he got a short opportunity before being sent on his way to the Chicago Cubs in the offseason. 

The Cubs likely had very little plan to utilize Wisdom, but injuries and poor play led to the chance for the 29 year old and he has taken full advantage of it in just ten games.  Wisdom has matched the record set by Reds Aristedes Aquino by hitting 8 homers in just ten games. Regression is obviously coming but the impact that Wisdom has made on the Cubs since being inserted into the lineup has led them to the top of the the NL Cental. 

Taijaun Walker- New York Mets

Much like the aforementioned Christain Arroyo, Taijuan Walker was a big deal coming up through the minors for the Seattle Mariners. Things never really worked out in Seattle, but Walker seemed to find himself once he was moved to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  In 2017 Walker was just 9-9 but was able to set career marks in nearly every statistic, ERA, xFIP, K/9 and BA against.  Walker dealt with a few injury riddled seasons in 2018 and 2019 but again showed his improvement once healthy in 2020.  

He entered the offseason is an afterthought, eventually signing with the Mets for a meager 3yr, $23 million dollar contract.  Walker has vaulted into the #2 spot in the Mets rotation and has helped them overcome a lackluster start from their offense.  Despite two different stints on the IL, Walker has still amassed 11 starts, 5 wins, 2.07 ERA, 2.83 FIP and a 1.8 WAR.  

Willy Adames- Milwaukee Brewers

Trading Willy Adames was a surprise to a lot of major league baseball.  Adames is still just 25 years old and is coming off of his best season in the bigs, helping lead the Rays to the AL pennant.  Adames’s time with the Rays was numbered with Wander Franco likely making his debut sooner rather than later but the Brewers may have found themselves a gem at a low cost.  

Adames has always brought a great glove with him but last season he peaked with a 124 WRC+, while knocking in 29 runs in a shortened season.  Adames had been struggling at the plate early in the season but since the move has lit a fire under a Brewers offense that needed all the help they could get.  In 15 games with the Brew Crew, Adames has driven in 11 runs.  He will never consistently hit over .300, but he will be productive against lefties and can provide stability at a position that the Brewers have had very little success getting production.  

Rich Hill- Tampa Bay Rays

Rich Hill is 41 years old.  He made his debut in 2005 for Chicago Cubs, since that day he has played for nine different teams all around the MLB and has been a mix of effective and embarrassing. The latter being as bad as anyone has seen in all of baseball. Since 2016, though Hill has found himself as a pitcher and when healthy he has been a staple in competetive rotations. Hill has pitched for the Athletics, Dodgers and Twins helping them all get to the playoffs.  

The Rays have a history of striking gold when no one expects and it looks like Hill is the latest achievement for the Tampa front office. He is currently 5-2 with a 3.09 ERA and has made 12 starts without finding himself on the disabled list.  What is amazing about Hill is that in an era that has multiple flamethrowers on every team Hill gets out by utilizing his spin rate and precision.  Since spin rate has been measured in 2015, Hill ranks at the top of most categories for two different pitches (fastball and curveball).  The Rays as a staff are elite, but they do lack a true #2 starter behind Tyler Glasnow, Hill may be the answer.

A Positive for Indians Fans

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Cleveland Indians fans have had to see arguably the brightest star in baseball leave their organization when they traded Francisco Lindor last week for a package of prospects.  The Indians are just five seasons from being in the World Series and now are looking at a complete rebuild.  The Indians have lost an all-star team worth of talent over the last five years.  Lindor is the top of the list that also includes Carlos Carrasco, Andrew Miller, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Santana, Mike Clevinger and Yandy Diaz.  Cleveland finds themselves behind Minnesota and Chicago in the central division and likely will not overtake them for a few years.  While the Indians have given up a lot of stars they have been able to build a young group of players as well as some financial flexibility to lock up their young talent.  

In 2020 the Indians farm system vaulted up to rank #12 overall according to ESPN and Baseball America.  Cleveland has loaded itself with young talent.  Of the Indians top ten prospects seven of them are 20 or younger (8 assuming you remove Tristan Mckenzie).  Cleveland’s top prospect Nolan Jones should see MLB time this year.  #2 ranked prospect Tyler Freeman is still a few years away but the addition of two major league ready shortstops in the trade with the Mets.  The trade with the Mets allows the Indians to allow Freeman time to continue to develop.  The Indians also have their catcher of the future in Bo Naylor.  Naylor will play behind Robeto Perez in 2021, but his time will come very soon depending on the succes of the Indians leading into the trade deadline this summer.  Cleveland unloaded most of their salary in order to reload for the future and build their team from within similarly to the way they did it leading into the 2016 system.

Cleveland has built up a great amount of roster flexibility as they watch their prospects continue to grow.  Jose Ramirez currently is the highest paid Indian at $9 million per year.  Over the next two seasons Ramirez is owed $26 million over the next two years but has a team buyout option of just $2 million.   Ramirez is just 28 years old heading into 2021 and the decision on his future could strictly come down to where the Indians are in the development of Nolan Jones, who grades out as primarily a 3rd baseman.  The financial situation in Cleveland is ideal for Cy Young winner Shane Bieber to get locked down in the near future as he is just now becoming arbitration eligible.  Bieber along with fellow pitchers Adam Plutko, Tristan McKenzie, Zac Plesac, Aaron Civale, Cal Quantril and Logan Allen are the rotation pieces of right now and the future as they are all under the age of 30 and under team control for most of the foreseeable future.  

Cleveland fans will find it tough to see the bright side to trading away their best player.  Ultimately if you just look at the pieces you have to consider it a win for the New York Mets,  While the Mets got the best two players of the trade Cleveland was able to grab two highly rated prospects, most notably pitcher Josh Wolf who will find himself as a top ten prospect in the Indians system at some point in 2021.  They also got Isiah Greene, an outfielder they had been targeting since the draft last year.  Both players are projected to be future standouts in their system.  Along with the prospects the Indians were able to get major league ready talent in Ahmed Rosario and last year’s breakout player Andres Gimenez.  Neither are on the level of Lindor but they will be solid pieces for a rebuilding team.  Gimenez grades out as a future gold glover at the position and ranks in the top 93rd percentile in speed which can at least make hima  stolen base threat.  

The Indians are a small market team that has to work with what their financials allow.  There will be some tough years ahead of the tribe but their pitching staff should be a highlight for a while and their farm system continues to grow.  The prospects they have picked up in the trades of Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Francisco Lindor are guys that fit their needs. If could be a lot worse in Cleveland,  just ask the Pittsburgh Pirates.  

Worry or Not? Struggling MLB Teams

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Tampa Bay Rays 4-6 

Many people picked to win the American League pennant were the Tampa Bay Rays.  The stellar pitching staff along with a manager that knows how to manipulate the lineup to out think opposing clubs, they are a sabermetric dream of a squad.  All was looking good after taking three of four from the defending NL East Champs the Atlanta Braves. Then they took a trip to Baltimore.  The Orioles swept the hapless Rays holding their lineup to just eight runs over a three game stretch.  

Looking deeper into the numbers, if not for an explosion of offense (14 runs) in the fourth game of the season the Rays bats have been relatively silent.  As a team the Rays are hitting just .213 with an OPS under 700.  Individually other than Brandon Lowe (OPS 1.032) and Willy Adames (OPS .919) the rest of the lineup has underperformed.  

Charlie Morton and Blake Snell have been less than impressive in their combined starts.  Morton most notably losing a little zip on the fast ball.  The depth of the pitching staff has kept them relevant and will continue to keep them relevant.   Tyler Glasnow has stepped up and shown glimpses of number one starter potential. The bullpen still has ridiculous talent that can pick up the slack of a struggling top of the rotation. 

The Rays have to get more consistency up and down the lineup.  Jose Martinez has been given more at bats lately and has shown the ability that made him a target in the offseason for the Rays.  The key for the lineup though is finding more power.  Hunter Renfroe has blasted a few but they still need more feared power hitters in order to be a serious threat for the Yankees in the east and the rest of the American League. 

Verdict: Not worried

Texas Rangers 2-5

The Rangers intrigued me entering the 2020 season.  With wholesale changes made to the starting rotation they seemed to have fixed a problem in 2019.  With Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles and Corey Kluber at the top of the rotation along with a powerful offense the Rangers should be ready to take the next step from rebuilding club to potential playoff contender. That hasn’t been the case through the first seven games of the season.  

It has been the offense that has looked sluggish out of the gate.  In fact it doesn’t seem like they even left the gate.  Choo, Andrus, Frazier, Santana, Odor and Calhoun were all guys that were supposed to be carrying the load offensively and it has not happened. With Danny Santana now hitting the injured list this team is looking for a spark that just isn’t there.  

With the expansion of the playoffs I had the Rangers pencilled in as one of the last spots but in a very crowded AL West they have a hell of a mountain to climb. 

Verdict: Very worried

New York Mets 3-7

New York was looking to compete even without Noah Syndergaard in 2020.  A revamped bullpen and a lineup featuring 2019 rookie of the year Pete Alonso looked like the beginning of what could be a very successful season.  

The lineup has generated a lot of production.  Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and JD Davis have all produced above the anticipated level.  As a team they have a .342 OBP, the problem hasn’t been getting people on base; it’s been driving them in. They are hitting just .228 with runners on and an OPS of .666.  The Met’s have multiple proven run producers that have been unable to come up with the big hits. 

The Mets have gotten great contributions from their rotation,  Offseason signing Michael Wachs and rookie David Peterson have both shown glimpses of what they can do in the regular season.  

Edwin Diaz’s continued struggles are very worrisome but the depth of the Mets bullpen should be able to bounce back.  The question of whether you believe that the bats will come around or  not.  I believe that the power they have up and down the lineup will eventually come through. 

Verdict: Not worried

Arizona Diamondbacks 3-7

I was one of the people that thought Arizona was going to be taking major steps in the right direction in 2020.  The addition of former All-Stars Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte to an already developing potential powerhouse seemed like a great fit.  Their start to the season has not shown the results.  

The bats have been silent. As a team they are hitting just .192 with a slugging percentage at just .265.  The struggles are throughout the lineup, other than Christian Walker, Starling Marte and Ketel Marte no player on the Diamondbacks has an OPS over .630.  

The complete lack of offense has not been helped out by the pitching staff.  The D-Backs have a team ERA 5.44, highlighted by the struggles of starters Luke Weaver and Robbie Ray.  Ray’s command most notably has led to crooked numbers on the scoreboard.  

The Diamondbacks have a lot of questions followed by very few answers. They will need Ketel Marte and Starling Marte to lead their offense until Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta and company can figure out a way to return to the form of 2019.  This team is in some serious trouble. 

Under Radar Free Agents

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Adam Jones

Adam Jones is coming off the worst season of his professional career.  A 0.2WAR by far the lowest of his career came while his team was putting together a historic season alongside him.  The Orioles finished the season at 47-115 an astounding 61 games behind the first place Red Sox.  Jones will enter the season at 33 years old, his best days offensively and defensively behind him. But is he really not worth a look in spring training by a contending team in need of some outfield help?

Jones hasn’t been the all-star he was from 2012-2015 but he still has brought production to the table over the last three seasons.  Jones has shown power over the last three season combining for a total of 70 homers and never hitting below .265 in those three seasons. Jones also brings in league average OPS at a career mark of .779.  He has been a leader in the Baltimore club house and is respected around baseball.  Never more notably then the leadership he brought to team USA in the world baseball classic.

While he is not the based sabermetric center fielder defensively, Jones still has the ability to play all three positions. 

Teams that should consider:

New York Mets- Lagares can’t hit and Broxton hasn’t shown anything in the majors yet.

Cleveland Indians- after losing so much this off season the Indians could use some more pop and another veteran bat to sell to the fans.  Leonys Martin is not the answer.

Josh Harrison

Josh Harrison is coming off a subpar season that was marred by injuries.  Playing in only 97 games in 2018 Harrison’s productivity was not where the Pirates wanted it to be, leading to a buyout of his contract.  Harrison now sits in the wasteland of free agents.

The 31-year old utility player brings plus defense to two different positions 2b and 3b. The 2017 All-Star can bring a dynamic player off the bench for multiple playoff contenders.  In an age of versatility being a great attribute Harrison would be a perfect fit on multiple teams. 

Teams that should consider:

New York Yankees- having a player whom can come in defensively for Miguel Andujar would be a perfect fit in the late innings. His speed can also be valuable in late inning situations.

Milwaukee Brewers- This one is a bit of a stretch but he would be an upgrade over Hernan Perez because of his experience and great club house demeanor.  He could replace the underrated Eric Sogard in a utility infield role.

Tony Sipp

I have been preaching the effectiveness of Tony Sipp all off season. Sipp had a 1.86 ERA in 38 innings last season with the Houston Astros. This included a home ERA of .90 in the hitter friendly Minute Maid Park.

Sipp was as good as it gets versus lefties in 2018 holding them to a slash line of .191/.263/.294. While Sipp hasn’t had as storied a career as the players a previously spoke of he is coming off of a great season and is currently ranked as the second best reliever still on the market behind Craig Kimbrel. 

Teams that should consider-

Anyone and everyone.  I lefty specialist is not easy to find.  Sipp would fill in that role for any contending team that is worried about the left side of their bullpen.  He is going to be cheap to.