New England Patriots

AFC Playoffs Picks ATS

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Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

The Raiders dispatched Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers to earn the last playoff spot in the AFC. Their reward is a matchup with another stud QB Joe Burrow and the NFC North Champion Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals are ahead of schedule in their rebuild. The Bengals were road warriors this year, going 6-2 ATS and 5-3 overall on the road. One of those road wins was a 32-13 beating of the Raiders on November 21st. Joe Mixon dominated on the ground, running for 123 yards and two touchdowns. The time of possession was widely in favor of the Bengals at +15 minutes.

The Bengals are not a run first team but they are able to lean on Mixon in the right matchups. If they can establish the run again they can neutralize the biggest defensive asset of the Raiders, their pass rush. Joe Burrow has multiple weapons to take advantage of the Raiders stacking the box and should be able to pick apart the defense if he gets 1on 1 coverage on Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase.

Their defense may have a slight advantage but I don’t see how their offense can keep up with Joe and the boys. Vegas leads the NFL in penalty yards per game at 63 yards per game, while the Bengals are one of the more disciplined teams in football. This is a ten point game at least. Rolling with Joe, cigars for everyone.

Pick: Bengals -6

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

This game is simple. Can Buffalo stop the New England run game? They stop the run, they win the game. They don’t stop the run, they lose.

The Bills have the #1 overall defense in the NFL. They however possess the #13 overall defense against the run. The Patriots have shown the ability to run the ball in their two matchups with Buffalo, the infamous “wind” game was a ground dominate effort leading the a Patriots victory, in matchup two the Bills offense shined. Josh Allen led the Bills to a 33-21 victory in Foxboro, while giving up 103 yards and three tuddys to Damien Harris.

The Patriots have struggled down the stretch because of the regression of rookie Mac Jones. Over his last five he has thrown five interceptions. Belicheck will not allow the game to be on the shoulders of his rookie QB. He will limit the throws and pound the ball right down the middle of the Buffalo defense. Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will be available, which means fresh legs for the Patriots run game.

Josh Allen is a stud, but this is the third meeting this year, hard for me to believe the Patriots won’t be ready to limit his downfield throws.

This division matchup will be gritty, no matter what this will be decided by a field goal. I like the Patriots to keep this close and potentially win because Allen can’t get the ball in his hands enough.

Pick: Patriots +4

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

A lot of things went right to allow the Pittsburgh Steelers to get into the playoffs. The luck has run out. The Chiefs have found their groove at the right time and they get the best matchup they could possibly ask for with an over the hill relic of a hall of fame QB in Big Ben.

The Chiefs smacked the Steelers in the face just two weeks ago. They will do it again on Sunday, ending a historic career, finally. The Chiefs hold the advantage in nearly every category, including on the defensive end. The “vaunted” Steelers defense ended the season in the bottom ten in points against. Their inability to stop the run has allowed teams to control the clock and score at will. If they can’t get pressure on the QB they are basically just crash pads in the middle of the field. The Chiefs have averaged 35 points per game over their last four, the Steelers just don’t have the firepower to match them.

The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. They are red hot, fully healthy and playing at home. The Steelers would be a nice story but Big Ben hasn’t had a QBR over 35 in his last five games. If they fall behind its going to be tough to beat the Chiefs if your QB can’t throw it over 20 yards. Najee Harris will likely make a big play at some point and Dionte Johnson will break loose, but it won’t be enough. Double digits in the playoffs is never an easy cover but this one is a mismatch of organization going in different directions.

Pick: Chiefs -13

What I learned from week 4.

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Greatest Show on Surf.

The LA Rams were good last season.  This season they may be unstoppable.  Adding downfield threat Brandin Cooks has opened up the middle of the field for slot receiver Cooper Kupp as well as forcing teams to play Robert Woods one on one.  This team can throw, run and control the tempo.

This team has offensive talent throughout the roster.  The Vikings defense has not been the dominant force that it was in 2017 but they still were completely dominated an overmatched.  The only defense that can maybe slow them down would be the Jaguars but they won’t have to deal with them during the season.  Every player on this team is a must start in your fantasy lineup and its not even debatable.

Steelers will finish third in the AFC North.

The Steelers fell to 1-2-1 on Sunday night getting handled easily by division rival Baltimore.  The Steelers gave up 14 points right off the bat and never truly were able to overcome the deficit.  The Steelers defense is bad and it won’t get much relief for the next two weeks.  The Falcons come to town next week followed by a trip to Cincinnati.  Both of those games are tough matchups for a Steelers defense that has given up 26. 27, and 42 over the last three games.

It is realistic that the Steelers are going to be 1-4-1 before they get the relief of the Browns coming to Pittsburgh. The Steelers also need to make a decision on what to do with their disgruntled RB LeVeon Bell, it is causing a rift in the team.  They are in trouble and are very likely to not make the playoffs this season.

Patriots still own the Dolphins and the AFC East

Last week I wrote that I learned the Patriots may be in trouble.  They were beaten on the national stage by a team that had been dominated by Sam Darnold during the first week of the season.  Then the Patriots got exactly what they needed to turn themselves around a trip to Miami against their whipping boys the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins were a mirage of 3-0 that had people buying into the potential of them winning the division.  Bill Belichick and Tom Brady quickly reminded us that they are the class of the AFC East and they are an AP class while the Dolphins are trying to work their way out of entry level.  The Patriots will not have the returning Julian Edelman next week which will only make this team even more dangerous and it will open up the playbook for Gronk and Josh Gordon.  The Pats were also able to establish rookie Sonny Michel and the run game.  This team is dangerous and I quickly have learned that you never count out the Pats.  My bad.

Titans may be for real.

I have been a hater of the Tennessee Titans since the season started.  They don’t play the brand of football that grabs your attention.  But you cannot ignore what they have done over the last three weeks.  Wins over Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville put the Titans at 3-1, first place in the AFC South.  They have found themselves there despite inconsistent play on the offensive end.

Corey Davis and Marcus Mariota seemed to build a rapport with each other, Davis going for 9 catches 151 yards and a touchdown yesterday against a suspect Eagles secondary.  The Titans have found the mojo with their arial attack which can open up the run game for Derrick Henry.  With the victory over the Jags the Titans sit in the drivers seat for the division and could be a tough matchup for any AFC teams.

I Talk Sports Picks- NFL, NCAAF

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2-8 to start the season sucks but we have to tread on.  Late adds again helped us out but we can only document what we put on this page.  Eventually it all turns around and this week could be the week.

NFL

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings -17

17 points is a huge margin in the NFL.  Let’s look at the facts, LeSean McCoy has busted ribs, Rookie QB Josh Allen making his second start, Bills defense has players retiring in the first half.  This has beat down written all over it.

Minnesota was not happy with their performance in week two versus an injured Aaron Rodgers, they will come out hungry to make a statement at home.  We could see a few more Bills players retiring at halftime in this one.  While 17 points may be a lot, in this case that may be to low.

PicksVikings -17

Chicago Bears -6 at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have been the definition of awful through the first two games of the 2018-19 season. Scoring just 6 points over their first two games they now get a matchup with a stingy Chicago Bears defense.

Sam Bradford’s QB rating sits at a league worst 55.6 with his longest pass play so far being 15 yards to Larry Fitzgerald.  Star runningback David Johnson has been limited to 14 touches in their week two matchup which will never lead to a victory.  While the Bears don’t yet feature a top level offense with the still developing Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, they have begun to progress with a new go to receiver in Allen Robinson.  Look for the bears to establish Jordan Howard early and Khalil Mack to potentially injure Sam Bradford.  Opening up the door for Josh Rosen…a door that should be at the least unlocked.

PicksBears -6

New England Patriots -6.5 at Detroit Lions

Let’s start with the obvious.  Since 2000, New England is 21-6 against the spread following a double digit loss.  Tom Brady does not take losing well and Bll Belichick will not allow his former coordinator to look good against him. For what it’s worth, Belichick has faced former assistants who went on to be head coaches on 18 occasions and has posted a 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS record.

Even without the pickup of Josh Gordon I would think this is a huge advantage for the New England Patriots.  Gronk, White, Michel, Hogan and company should all have big days.  This should be a blow out.

PicksPatriots -6.5

NCAAF

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines -17.5

Nebraska took a humbling loss last Saturday to Sun Belt for Troy, the first time since 1957 that the Huskers have lost their first two games of a season. Many will look at these first two home losses and say the Huskers will be on a mission this weekend in Ann Arbor.  I see it a different way.

Nebraskas first two losses of the season came at home to lesser competition then the Wolverines.  It is Michigan that has something to prove in this game.  They are still look to make a statement on the national scene.  If Michigan can avoid turnovers while finally establishing the run they can dominate the game and take this home easily.  I may wait and see if the money begins to come in on Nebraska as I expect it will.

PicksMichigan -17.5

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Maryland Terrapins -1.5

I watched this line move from 3 to 1.5 over the last week. With two key injuries for the Golden Gophers, RB Rodney Smith and QB Zack Annexstad the offense should be partially neutralized.

The Terps are coming off a disaster of a game losing to Temple 35-14.  They return home to face a Minnesota team that has yet to face a real power five team.  Maryland’s offense has been rough early in the season but with the homefield advantage and a litany of injuries Maryland should be able to pull this one out.

PicksMaryland -1.5

Boston College Eagles -6.5 at Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue beat me last week putting up points against the horrid Mizzou defense sinking what looked like a sure thing. But they still took an L in a game where the momentum was in their favor. Boston College will feature AJ Dillon in the backfield spear heading a dominant running attack that has averaged 296 yards per game over their first 3.

Purdue is no doubt better then their record may show but after a few brutal losses and facing a team with a solid pass rush and runningback that will allow BC to utilize clock management this will be a tall task for Purdue.

PicksBoston College -6.5

 

James “Why Not” Pick of the Week 1-1 .

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers

Last week I road the Tannehill train to victory over the Jets.  The Dolphins being an underdog in that game never really made much sense but I will take the victory.  This week is a little tougher.  I wanted to go with a college game but none of them seemed to stand out.  So I went with a team that is hot.

The Cincinnati Bengals have started the season 2-0 with a couple of impressive victories, they head into Carolina to take on a beat up Panthers squad.  The Panthers will need to rely on their defense, forcing a turnover will be huge especially from Andy Dalton. When Dalton throws one interception in a game, the Bengals are 21-13-1 straight up and 17-14-4 against the spread. However, should Dalton throw two picks, that record dips to 10-16-1 SU and 8-16-3 ATS.  I don’t think the loss of Joe Mixon will play a huge factor as Gio Bernard is a veteran that knows the role he must play.

PicksBengals +3