NCAAF Picks ATS Nov 7

Boston College Golden Eagles -14 at Syracuse Orange

I was a big advocate of fading Kansas early this season.  My fade attention has now turned to the Syracuse Orange.  I loved Wake Forest last week and that paid off in a major way, I am looking at a similar story in this matchup.  This is the second week in a row that people are overvaluing the Orange’s showing against Clemson.  

Syracuse has given up a lot of points this year (33.29 per game).  The biggest problem has been a complete inability to stop the run.  The Orange give up 222 yards per game on the ground.   While Boston College no longer has AJ Dillon in the backfield they still have the ability to gain yards on the ground against the Cuse defense.  Boston College QB Paul Jurkovec has passed for 1,875 yards with 14 touchdowns.  He will have a chance to throw down field after BC establishes the run.  

Boston College is coming off of a tough loss to Clemson but they will have the chance to re-establish themselves against a putrid defense on Saturday.  This game should be closer to a 17 point spread.  The Golden Eagles are too strong on offense for Syracuse to keep this one close.  Give me BC.  #fadeCuse

Pick: Boston College -14

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats -3.5

We are currently in a world wher Northwestern football is favored in a Big Ten football game.  The Wildcats are the most improved team in the conference, beginning the season 2-0 with wins against Maryland and at Iowa.  The Maryland victory looks even better after the Terps ran all over Minnesota last week.  The key to the Northwestern success was through the running game. They feature two very talented runners in Isaiah Browser and Drake Anderson. Browser is coming off of running for 82 yards against Iowa while Anderson was held in check in week two, he showed his explosive ability in week one going for 100 yards on just ten carries.

Nebraska started strong against powerhouse Ohio State in their first game, eventually the talent of the Buckeyes was too much as they fell 52-17.  Nebraska will need more from QB Adrian Martinez through the air.  He threw for just 105 yards versus Ohio State, he did lead the team in rushing with 85 yards and a touchdown.  Martinez will have trouble relying on his legs as the Wildcats have some of the top linebackers in the conference that will sure to have their eyes on him as he trys to leave the pocket. 

Northwestern will be able to control the ball with the run game and contain Adrian Martinez.  This game will be close but eventually the Wildcats will take control and run away with the victory, literally. 

Pick: Northwestern -3.5

North Carolina Tarheels -10.5 at Duke Blue Devils

North Carolina is coming off of a loss to Virginia.  Their second loss in the ACC since finding themselves in uncharted waters,  top ten in college football.  Mac Brown’s squad has squandered any chance of an ACC title or being legit competition for the big boys of the conference.  They have a chance on Saturday to take out some of their frustration on rival Duke.  

Duke’s problem will be stopping UNC QB Sam Howell.  One of the best in the country, Howell is coming off of a game where he threw for 400 yards and four touchdowns.  Duke has been middle of the pack against the pass most of the season but they have given up points to good offenses.  Behind Howell UNC should be able to get an early lead due to the fact that Duke gives up yards in chunks.  They are giving up 7.4 yards per attempt this season.  

With Carolina jumping out to an early lead they will force the Blue Devils to throw the ball to make up the advantage.  Duke QB Chase Brice is capable but has had a serious issue with turnovers.  Brice has thrown 11 interceptions while being sacked 22 times.  Duke’s only chance will be to hold down the talented Tarheel offense,  a task that seems unlikely.  

Pick: North Carolina -10.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 7-4

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 10

Season Record: 21-22

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio State Buckeyes -18

Nebraska is in rebuild mood under first year Head Coach Scott Frost.  This team will not always stink, but this season they do.  They are going to be running into an angry buzzsaw on Saturday when they face the Ohio State Buckeyes

Defensively, Nebraska allows an average of 272 passing yards per game, which is the 20th-most in college football and could be an issue against the likes of Dwayne Haskins. Despite the loss to Purdue two weeks ago Haskins was still good throwing for 470 yards against Purdue.  This will be an offensive onslaught from the Buckeyes early and late.  Ohio State wants to make a statement after their upset loss to Purdue and have had a whole week to sit a stew over the loss.  This will be ugly.

PicksOhio State -18.5

Georgia Bulldogs -9 at Kentucky Wildcats

The Georgia Bulldogs have won eight straight meetings with the Kentucky Wildcats by an average of 20 point per game.  Wildcat fans should be proud of the way their team has played this season.  Pulling off the victory at Mizzou in the final seconds has kept their teams SEC title dreams alive.  Beating Mizzou is great but this is the Georgia Bulldogs.  A team that fell just short of a National Title and knows they have work to do after suffering an embarrassing loss two weeks ago to LSU.

Any chance to a Georgia let down was wiped away two weeks ago.  The Bulldogs will be gas on the pedal full adrenaline the entire night.  Sophomore QB Jake Fromm will limit the turnovers and keep the ball in their hands.  Georgia will stack the line to make sure Benny Snell will not be a factor.  Bulldogs not only need to win but need to win convincingly.

PicksGeorgia -9

Memphis Tigers-13 at East Carolina Pirates

This one is simple to me.  I began this article when the line was a -13 fro Memphis, I have seen it go as low as -11 on some sights.  This almost seems to easy, Memphis will have the best player on the field in Darrell Henderson.  UCF ran wild on the East Carolina defense, look for Memphis to ride Henderson early and often.

East Carolina will get a few big plays in but they won’t be able to keep up with the Memphis offense.

PicksMemphis Tigers -13

Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies +2

The return of AJ Dillon has made a huge difference for the Boston College Eagles. But they have a matchup against a team that will have the tools needed to defeat them on Saturday beginning with Virginia Tech QB Ryan Willis.

Boston College’s two losses came on the road against teams that throw a bit. The Hokie O line might not be amazing, but it should be able to give Willis just enough time to operate.

The Eagles will need to create turnovers to win and that is not easy to do against Virginia Tech.  The home field advantage will play a large role in this one.

PicksVirginia Tech Hokies  +2

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves -15

I always like to pick a game no one is going to watch in case I am losing.  Arkansas State can score, I have covered two games I have bet on with them.  I’m gonna let it ride.

PicksArkansas State Red Wolves -15

Other Picks:

Florida State +9

Penn State Michigan over 53

Charlotte +22