NCAAF Pick ATS Week 8

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Liberty Flames -10

Libety is 5-0 for the first time since 2008. Their offense has been impressive averaging 34 ppg.  The running attack has been carrying the load, averaging 269 yard per game.  The difficulty of the Flames is they consistently varry up their looks.  They have a four-headed monster Joshua Mack (359 yards 6.1 AVG, 1TD), Shedro Louis (310 yards, 9.4 AVG, 3 TDs), Peyton Pickett (293 yards, 5.0 AVG, 3 TD), quarterback Malik Willis who has a team-best 398 yards and five touchdowns.  The run game will be a huge factor against Southern Mississippi, they give up 5.7 yards per attempt this season.  

Southern Mississippi has been living through the air.  69% of their offensive plays have come by way of the pass.  Liberty is 4th in the nation in stopping the big pass play, holding opposing teams to just 5.5 yards per attempt.  

Liberty has not played a great schedule but they have a lot of momentum after stomping Syracuse last week.  This is a great matchup for the Flames and they should be able to do whatever they want on offense. 

Pick: Liberty Flames -10

Houston Cougars -14 at Navy Midshipmen

Houston got run over by Zach Wilson and BYU last week giving up yards by the plenty.  Navy has tons of momentum coming off of a win over East Carolina last week, their third in a row.  Navy has seen a carousel at QB but it hasn’t stopped the offensive game plan for Navy.  They want to run the ball and that is what they have been doing.  They have averaged 191 rush yards per game.  They will have Tyger Goslin at QB which means they will continue to pound the run game on Houston looking to control the clock. 

Houston has a dynamic offense led by QB Clayton Tune.  They were able to go shot for shot with BYU until the 4th quarter.  It will be vital for Houston to take advantage of their time with the ball as they will struggle to stop the run game.  Houston likely pulls this one out because of Clayton Tune but they will not have an easy go on the road.  Houston wins, but 14 is too many points. 

Pick: Navy Midshipmen +14

Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 at SMU Mustangs 

SMU is 5-0, featuring one of the most powerful offenses in college football.  The Mustangs rank ninth in the nation in scoring (40.9 per game).  They have done that against mediocre defenese to say the least.  They will now get one of the best defenses in the country coming off of a week off due to Covid-19 issues.  

While SMU is unbeaten they have not faced the competition they will face on Saturday.  Cincinnati has held teams to just 306 yards per game good for 12th in the nation.  SMU’s Shane Buechele has been on fire but he will be without his top target Reggie Roberson.  Without Roberson, SMU could have trouble doing the things that they want to do. Their 406 passing yards per game has allowed them to overcome defensive issues. No Roberson will hurt the game plan. 

Cincinnati will try to limit the decisions for Ridder by running the ball against the subpar defense of  SMU.  They give up 170 yards per game on the ground.  The Bearcats have been great with 121 carries for 534 yards and 7 touchdowns.  

The rested Cincy defense and the run game will be enough to take down SMU on the road.  May as well take the points to be safe.    

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 

Overall Season Picks Record: 4-2

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct.14

Navy Midshipmen -2 at East Carolina Pirates

East Carolina has given up a lot og yards on the ground.  The Pirates rank 126th in the nation against the run.  The bread and butter of the Navy offense is on the ground.  Navy’s ability to run will allow them to control the clock and keep the high powered East Carolina offense off the field. 

Navy has had great success over their conference going 5-0 ATS in their last five games.  East Carolina is just 1-9 straight up in their last ten. Navy’s run game will be too much to handle, they win this one easily due to their ball control.  

Pick: Navy -2

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Both teams are coming off of great offensive showings last week.  Georgia Tech put up 46 points versus the Louisville Cardinals, while Clemson continued their dominance putting up 41 against Virginia and 42 against Miami. These two teams have the ability to run and control the clock but they still move quickly and pick up yards in chunks.  Clemson ranks 10th in yards per play while Georgia Tech surprisingly ranks 28th.  

Clemson is a 27 point favorite in this game and they will likely be emptying the bench in the 4th quarter.  They will be able to coast at the end which will provide the opportunity for the Yellow Jackets to put up some points late in the game.  This one should be a scoring factory.  Lots of points and a blow out.

Pick: Over 64

North Carolina Tarheels -13.5 at Florida State Seminoles

Living in a world of North Carolina being a double digit favorite on the road against Florida State is the world we live in right now.  The Tarheels come into this matchup looking to continue to establish themselves as a serious contender in the ACC.  The Seminoles are just looking to salvage a bit of credibility as they continue to rebuild.  

Florida State replaced James Blackmon at QB with versatile sophomore Jordan Travis.  He showed signs of life from the Seminole offense, outscoring powerhouse Notre Dame in the first quarter until reality took over and Notre Dame blew them out the rest of the way. Travis though will likely not be able to play on Saturday which means they have to go back to Blackmon which has been less than successful. 

Florida State gave up 353 rushing yards to Notre Dame last week and now have to go up against the two headed monster Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.  Combined they have rushed for almost 700 yards and eight touchdowns.  The Tarheels need to not only win this game but do it in convincing fashion.  They will roll over the Seminoles by three touchdowns. 

Picks: North Carolina -13.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 2-1

College Football Championship Weekend Picks ATS

Pac 12 – Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes -6.5

Does anyone remember when Utah was beat by USC?  That was all the way back on September 20th. The Utes have become a top ten team both offensively and defensively.  Utah QB Tyler Huntley has developed into a huge threat averaging 11.1 yards per attempt which has ranks him 3rd nationally. 

Oregon has to find a way to make stops as their defense vanished against better talent giving up big points to Washington, Washington State and Arizona State.  Oregon will have problems dealing with Huntley and Utah runningback Zack Moss.  

Justin Herbert will be running for his life against the Utah pass rush most notably Bradlee Anae. The Ducks have a verteran QB and a coach that has played these big games before.  I like Utah to win and Oregon to cover on a garbage time TD.

Pick: Utah wins, Oregon covers +6.5

Big 12 – Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners -9

To have a chance at the College Football Playoff both of these teams would need some help.  The Sooners have the best chance based on their placement at the moment. The Sooners have escaped multiple games over the last month and they have to come out and have a dominant performance on Saturday.  

Baylor came out and took care of business the last two weeks dominating Kansas and beating in state rival Texas. The Bears big play ability is scary for the leaky Oklahoma defense. Baylor is top twenty in the nation in yards per play averaging 6.56. Baylor will put up points, it’s whether or not they can force turnovers.  If Baylor is able to force mistakes from the Sooners they have a chance.

Oklahoma will have the services of CeeDee Lamb in the game, something they didn’t have in their prior matchup. That makes a dangerous offense even more explosive.  The Bear’s have only given up a shocking seven touchdowns this season. Those numbers will increase by a lot on Saturday. 

AAC – Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Memphis Tigers -10

I feel like I have seen this before.  Oh it was last week. Memphis was able to topple the Bearcats by ten in their first matchup.  Memphis was able to win but it was Cincinnati was able to cover the 14 point spread. 

The Bearcats may have a wrinkle in their scheme come Saturday as quarterback Demond Ridder may be able to suit up.  While he doesn’t have the arm strength of last Saturday’s starter freshman Ben Bryant, Ridder does bring a much more athleticism.  I look for Cincinnati to utilize both QB’s if available. That means Memphis is not going to see the same game plan they saw the week before. 

If Ridder plays I like the chances for Cincinnati, their defense has what it takes to win this game.

Pick: Cincinnati Upsets Memphis

SEC – Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers -7

THIS IS YOUR MAIN EVENT OF THE EVENING!!! It’s hard for me not to imagine someone saying that as these two teams take the field Saturday.  The entire landscape of the College Football Playoff could be changed by the outcome of this game.   

Joe Burrow has burst onto the scene throwing himself right in the middle of Heisman talk as well as a bright NFL future.  LSU has scored 36 points in all but one game this year. I can list off the Burrow’s statistics but they are pretty easy for anyone to find.  He will outplay the steady Jake Fromm on Saturday, with the help of a strong running game and the red hot Clyde Edwards-Helaire.  

Georgia will be the toughest test defensively for LSU.  The Bulldogs are just behind Clemson with 10.4 points per game this season.  As good as they are they will not be able to contain LSU for a full 60 minutes.  LSU and Georgia have played four similar foes this season with LSU putting up 183 points compared to Georgia’s 94.  This game could be interesting but I see LSU with too much firepower to handle. 

Pick: LSU wins, Georgia Covers

ACC – Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers -28.5

Is Virginia good? Not really.  Beating their rival Virginia Tech got them the chance to play spoiler for Clemson Tigers.  That means they get a chance to play tune up for the only ACC team worth anything this season.  Looking past just the stats Virginia has really only been great at times this season at home and with this being on a neutral site any advantage for Virginia is gone. 

Clemson is better on both sides of the ball. They win and cover with ease.

Pick: Clemson -28.5

Big 10 – Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers +17

There is only one way I see Wisconsin actually winning this game…..sorry  really thought I had something. Wisconsin hasn’t beat Ohio State since 2010. Wisconsin is one dimensional, they will need to use the run game to control the pace and keep the #1 ranked offense in the country off the field.   Ohio State will have all the motivation in the world to pour it on and insure themselves a shot at the #1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.  

I would love to see Wisconsin make this a game, but they had their chance week nine when the weather fit their game plan.  Wisconsin has a puncher’s chance at best.  

Pick: Ohio State -17

NCAAF Picks

Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinal Total: 62.5

Both defenses are not good, ranking 83rd(Syracuse) and 103rd(Louisville) overall. These teams are going to be looking to move the ball and move it quickly.  

Syracuse seemed to find its offensive groove last week against Duke running for 286 yards dominating the Blue Devils and reminding us of what we thought the Orange could be.  The Orange have actually run 80 plays per game during the season which ranks them in the top five nationally. Syracuse has not been able to throw the ball the way that they had hoped but they should be able to move the ball against the Cardinals defense.

Louisville has become an offensive juggernaut over the last three weeks scoring 28, 27 and 34 over the last three weeks against better defensive units then Syracuse.  The Cardinal quarterback Micale Cunningham has averaged 12 yard per pass since the beatdown at the hands of Clemson four weeks ago.  

This game may not be flashy, but I see a lot of turnovers causing great field position that will lead to scores. These teams aren’t playing for much which should benefit the offenses. 

Pick: Over 62.5 

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats +14

The Golden Gophers chance at the College Football Playoff is over.  PJ Fleck will not let that bother his team heading into a matchup with the offensively challenged Northwestern Wildcats. 

Minnesota has the 14th ranked total defense in the country.  Northwestern had problems running away from the UMass Minuteman until the second half.  For those who don’t know UMass is arguably the worst team in all of college football.  

The Wildcats will come out fired up in the first half being its final home game of the season.  They could keep things close…in the first quarter. The Golden Gophers running game will take over and Minnesota will coast to an easy victory.

 Pick: Minnesota Golden Gophers -14

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5 Total: 57

The Nittany Lions hold their fate in their hands.  If they are able to beat Ohio State on Saturday they will completely change the current landscape of the College Football Playoff. While that is nice to think about they have one big hurdle to jump. That hurdle is the dominant Ohio State Buckeyes who have shown no mercy to any team at any point during the season. 

Some will say that Penn State was exposed over the last two weeks.  While they haven’t played their best football they had tough matchups in a ramped up Minnesota team and an underrated Indiana team.  The Nittany Lions will come out focused and ready for a battle. But it won’t matter. Penn State Quarterback Sean Clifford has struggled over his last five games and he will have to deal with the built up frustration of Chase Young returning from a ridiculous two game suspension.  

This game will come down to whether or not Ohio State is able to establish JK Dobbins and the run game allowing for Justin Fields to open up and do Justin Fields things.  The problem for Penn State will be the Buckeyes have to many weapons to hold down. They have better talent and are coached better than Minnesota. Penn State should be able to put up some points but I don’t see them having much of a chance to stop Ohio State.  

Parlay Pick: Ohio State ATS and Over

Other Picks:

Mizzou -4

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 10

Season Record: 21-22

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio State Buckeyes -18

Nebraska is in rebuild mood under first year Head Coach Scott Frost.  This team will not always stink, but this season they do.  They are going to be running into an angry buzzsaw on Saturday when they face the Ohio State Buckeyes

Defensively, Nebraska allows an average of 272 passing yards per game, which is the 20th-most in college football and could be an issue against the likes of Dwayne Haskins. Despite the loss to Purdue two weeks ago Haskins was still good throwing for 470 yards against Purdue.  This will be an offensive onslaught from the Buckeyes early and late.  Ohio State wants to make a statement after their upset loss to Purdue and have had a whole week to sit a stew over the loss.  This will be ugly.

PicksOhio State -18.5

Georgia Bulldogs -9 at Kentucky Wildcats

The Georgia Bulldogs have won eight straight meetings with the Kentucky Wildcats by an average of 20 point per game.  Wildcat fans should be proud of the way their team has played this season.  Pulling off the victory at Mizzou in the final seconds has kept their teams SEC title dreams alive.  Beating Mizzou is great but this is the Georgia Bulldogs.  A team that fell just short of a National Title and knows they have work to do after suffering an embarrassing loss two weeks ago to LSU.

Any chance to a Georgia let down was wiped away two weeks ago.  The Bulldogs will be gas on the pedal full adrenaline the entire night.  Sophomore QB Jake Fromm will limit the turnovers and keep the ball in their hands.  Georgia will stack the line to make sure Benny Snell will not be a factor.  Bulldogs not only need to win but need to win convincingly.

PicksGeorgia -9

Memphis Tigers-13 at East Carolina Pirates

This one is simple to me.  I began this article when the line was a -13 fro Memphis, I have seen it go as low as -11 on some sights.  This almost seems to easy, Memphis will have the best player on the field in Darrell Henderson.  UCF ran wild on the East Carolina defense, look for Memphis to ride Henderson early and often.

East Carolina will get a few big plays in but they won’t be able to keep up with the Memphis offense.

PicksMemphis Tigers -13

Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies +2

The return of AJ Dillon has made a huge difference for the Boston College Eagles. But they have a matchup against a team that will have the tools needed to defeat them on Saturday beginning with Virginia Tech QB Ryan Willis.

Boston College’s two losses came on the road against teams that throw a bit. The Hokie O line might not be amazing, but it should be able to give Willis just enough time to operate.

The Eagles will need to create turnovers to win and that is not easy to do against Virginia Tech.  The home field advantage will play a large role in this one.

PicksVirginia Tech Hokies  +2

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves -15

I always like to pick a game no one is going to watch in case I am losing.  Arkansas State can score, I have covered two games I have bet on with them.  I’m gonna let it ride.

PicksArkansas State Red Wolves -15

Other Picks:

Florida State +9

Penn State Michigan over 53

Charlotte +22

I Talk Sports Picks- NCAAF

After a few tough weeks of NFL I have decided to separate my NCAA picks.  Last week I went 7-2 with a lot of late picks cashing, including Michigan State, Stanford and Wisconsin.  Here are the five picks I that jumped out to me first.

Syracuse at Clemson -25

Syracuse enters this matchup at 4-0 for the first time since 1991.  Matching up with the beasts of the ACC the Clemson Tigers on Saturday will be a true test to see where the program is.  While Clemson deals with the semi-distraction of the transferring Kelly Bryant they can’t look past this he Orange. The Orange are trying to prove that last year’s win over Clemson wasn’t a fluke and that they’re a legitimate ACC contender. A win this Saturday would most certainly do that and potentially land them in the Top 25 for Week 6.

You can be bold here and take Syracuse to upset Clemson, but I am not that bold.  I do think this spread is a bit large for this matchup.  Syracuse is good and they should keep this close.

PicksSyracuse +25

Indiana -16.5 at Rutgers

Rutgers got blown out by Kansas.   That’s Kansas Football.  With basically no passing game.  After a nice start to the season against Texas State Scarlet Knight quarterbacks have combined to complete just 44% of their passes with no touchdowns, five interceptions, and absolutely nothing happening down the field.

This is more about how bad Rutgers is then how good Indiana is.  Don’t worry about where the number goes right now you have to fade Rutgers no matter what.

PicksIndiana -16.5

Oklahoma State -17 at Kansas

I have picked on Kansas all year.  It finally paid off versus Baylor.  This weekend it will pay off again as the Cowboys come to town.  This is a simple case of to much offense for Kansas to stay afloat in this one. Oklahoma State quarterback Taylor Cornelius has thrown for 1,229 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Justice Hill leads the Cowboys in rushing with 388 yards and five touchdowns. The leading receiver is Tylan Wallace with 442 yards and two touchdowns. Tyron Johnson has 206 receiving.

This is the best offense Kansas has seen and they will have no answers for it.  Oklahoma State literally doubles total yardage both rushing and receiving on a game to game basis.  OK State takes over early and never looks back.

PicksOklahoma State -17

Arkansas vs Texas A&M -21 (Neutral Site)

Arkansas has been down right embarrassing to start the season scoring just 47 points over their last 3 games while giving up 112 to opposing offenses.  They now get a matchup with a Texas A&M team that has been averaging 300 passing yards and 250 rushing yards a game.   The Aggies have also covered in its last five games.

This will be a chance to Texas A&M to run up a score on a team that looks to have all but given up any chance of winning this season.

PicksTexas A&M -21

Pittsburgh at Central Florida -13.5

In last weeks game against North Carolina, the Panthers defense stayed home and allowed 476 total yardage against a North Carolina squad that had been struggling and battling injuries.  They now face arguably the best offense in college football when they face the “National Champion” Central Florida Knights.

I am going to keep it simple here.  Central Florida at home steamrolls a struggling defense.  Mac Milton throws for 330yards and 4TD’s.

PicksCentral Florida -13.5

 

Weekly Picks- NFL, NCAAF

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at Cleveland Browns

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a major problem but the Browns are not that problem.  Despite the absence of LeVeon Bell the Pittsburgh Steelers should be in a great place to cover on Sunday.  The lose of bell has moved the line to 3.5.  The Browns are improved with Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and a healthy Josh Gordon should allow them to put points on the board but the Steelers still have a dominate offense that will be able to pull this one out by a touchdown.  I think the Browns will win at least 6-7 games this season and surprise a lot of teams, but the Steelers offense feels like they have something to prove on Sunday and the Cleveland defense will not be ready for James Conner and Big Ben.

The Steelers are 13-4 ATS vs Cleveland over their last 17 games.  Cleveland has not one a season opener since 2004.

PicksSteelers -3.5 (Like the over at 44)

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The return of Andrew Luck makes the Bengals and Colts makes this a much more interesting matchup then it would have been in 2017.  The Colts sitting at a 2.5 point favorite stills surprised us.  The Bengals may not be world beaters but they have veterans all through the offense and a defensive front that features studs Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson.

Luck hasn’t played in a year and that Colts line hasn’t gotten much better.  I can’t buy that Luck is ready to step in right away and look like the Pro Bowl player that he was right away.  Look for Luck to make some plays that reminds us of his greatness but he will have some first game jitters.

Picks Bengals -2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -9.5

In two games against the Buccaneers last season, the Saints averaged 30.5 points per game, Drew Brees averaged 254 pass yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, the running back corps averaged 121.5 rushing yards, and receivers caught 44 passes for 505 yards with three touchdowns. The Buccaneers have not made big improvements on the defensive end.  Why would they be able to stop the Saints in 2018??

Jameis Winston will be serving the first game of his 3 game suspension which means veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick will step in to try take down the great Drew Brees.  9.5 is a lot of points for the first game of the year, but when you have a veteran like Brees and dynamic players like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas the Saints should control the the game on offense and the ball hawking defense should cause plenty of turnovers i

PicksSaints -9.5

Air Force at Florida Atlantic University -9

FAU was embarrassed in their opener versus Kyler Murray and the Oklahoma Sooners in week one.  Air Force is not Oklahoma.  It’s time for people to jump back on the Lane Train in week 2.

Florida Atlantic will come out throwing the ball early, jumping ahead and not looking back.  Air Force dominated a Stoney Brook but Stoney Brook is does not have the talent level of Florida Atlantic.  Being at home and most likely going to be very motivated I like Florida Atlantic to turn the table and blow out Air Force.

PicksFlorida Atlantic -9

Arkansas -14 at Colorado State

The Colorado State defense stinks.  Giving up 45 and 43 to Hawaii and Colorado.  They now are staring at an incoming SEC team in Arkansas.  Arkansas threw for 343 yards in game one against Eastern Illinois.  Colorado State has given up a 373 yards per game in the first two games of the season.

Arkansas will score and they will score and they will score.  That was not a typo.  I see Arkansas putting up a lot of points and silencing any potential home field advantage.  I would take Arkansas by 21 if it went that high.

PicksArkansas -14

James “Why Not” Pick of the Week

PicksHouston Texans +6.5

The Patriots gave up a lot of yards in 2017.  The Texans will have back their second year QB Deshaun Watson who was putting up MVP like numbers before his injury.  Watson is good and his receivers are good.  The Patriots historically have come out of the gates sluggish until Belicheck figures everything out.  Look for a high scoring game where the better defense makes a big play.  Houston has the better defense.  Houston may not only cover but I could see them knocking of the AFC Champs.