NCAAF Football Picks ATS Week 9

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats +23.5

The Wildcats bring in the perfect matchup for a cover.  Kansas State has been the best in the Big12 at defending the pass, giving up just 152.5 yards pe game, 5thbest in the entire country. That is what Oklahoma is all about.  While I don’t see Kansas State completely shutting down the pass game, I do see them forcing Oklahoma to run the ball more than they would like which can slow up the attack.

Kansas State will look to do what they do best and possess the ball.  They will look to run and run often with work horse runningback James Gilbert. The longer they can keep Jalen Hurts off the field the better chance they have to survive.  

Oklahoma wins, but Kansas State gives them a tough game. 

Pick: Kansas State +23.5

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

This was supposed to be a matchup of undefeated powerhouses.  Wisconsin may have been looking too far ahead as they became the biggest upset of 2019, losing to Illinois on a last second field goal.  The Badgers turned the ball over three times against the Illini, which helped blow  20-7 second half lead. 

Ohio State has done everything possible to show that they are the cream of the crop in college football, dominating every game. The competition hasn’t been great, that all changes on Saturday.  Despite their loss Wisconsin still sees themselves as the top of the food chain in the Big10. The Badgers have to come out and establish Jonathon Taylor early and often. Wisconsin is averaging 38 minutes of possession per game. They will work to grind out the Buckeyes and force them to play from behind, something they have not done at all this season.  

Wisconsin is the biggest test for the Buckeyes this season, Ohio State QB Justin Fields has not seen a defense that can bring the pressure the way Wisconsin can.  Buckeyes win but they are tested.

Pick: Wisconsin +14.5

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans +6.5

Michigan State’s offense has disappeared since their shocking loss to Arizona State.  The Spartans have averaged a paltry 5.7 points per game over their last three.  Michigan State has not shown the ability to play up to the higher level of competition. Ohio State and Wisconsin beat the hell out of the Sparty, and they will have similar trouble coming their way on Saturday.

Sophomore QB Sean Clifford has been superb with a 56% completion percentage, helping the Nitany Lions get out to a 7-0 start.  Despite the 7-0 start Penn State has had trouble covering against ranked opponents, failing to cover against Michigan and Iowa.   They have a terrible history versus Michigan State, going 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six matchups.  

Penn State’s history is not what I am worried about.  Looking past Michigan State is the only thing that I am worried about.  This matchup is not as highly regarded as it would be if Michigan State hadn’t been embarrassed by Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Penn State has to stay focused and overcome the recent history of these two teams.  Penn State’s offense is just too strong for Michigan State’s defense to handle.  Penn State will grab a lead early and that will be to much for the Spartans to overcome. 

Pick: Penn State -6.5

Other Games:

Texas -1

App State -27

Marshall/ Western Kentucky over 44.5

NCAAF Picks Oct 19

Houston Cougars at UConn Huskies +22

The Huskies are fade worthy every single week.  This week is no different.  The Houston Cougars saw themselves potentially on the verge of pulling off an upset of a top 25 team until they gave up 17 points and the lead to Cincinnati in the 4thquarter.

Heading into a matchup with UConn, Cougar’s QB Clayton Tune should be able to find his grove pretty easily (if healthy).  Houston was able to move the ball pretty well versus a stout Cincinnati defense until their collapse.  If Tune is healthy, he should be able to dominate on the offensive end. 

UConn playing at home which should give them a bump, but this is still UConn.  Money is coming in on the Huskies which has already dropped this by a half a point.  I just believe the Cougars will play with a fire after their tough loss last week. They jump out early and run the score up. 

Pick: Houston Cougars -22

Oregon State Beavers at California Golden Bears Total: 51.5

California is coming off a much-needed bye week, previously losing a tough 17-7 game versus Pac12 powerhouse Oregon.  The Bears are still without Quarterback Chase Garbers, they will again look to Devon Modster to carry the Golden Bears offense.  California’s defense will have to be the star on Saturday, Oregon State QB Jake Lutton has been lighting up the sky with 1400 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one interception on the season.

California has gone 4-0 in unders at home and 10-1 on unders in their last 11 conference games.   I expect California to win this game at home, that means it will have to be a low scoring affair.  Cal doesn’t have the offense to compete with Oregon State, but their defense at home is too good.  Cal wins 26- 18.

Pick: Under 51.5

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers -3

Virginia is looking to get their groove back after two straight losses versus Notre Dame and Miami, relinquishing their lead in the ACC Coastal Division.  What’s been the problem?  The offensive line’s inability to handle the pass rush.  That should not be the same problem heading into their matchup with the Duke Blue Devils.  

Duke has been red hot offensively against the weaker opponents on the schedule, Middle Tennessee, North Carolina A&T, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  Losing rather easily to the Alabama and Pittsburgh. Duke was not able to throw the ball well in their two losses.  They will have to be able to throw against Virginia, who ranks 11thin the country against the run.  

This is the time to buy low on Virginia.  Only a three-point spread at home against a team that has not shown the ability to handle real competition.  The concerns about injuries in the secondary for Virginia will have people worried about the recency bias of Duke’s offense.  Virginia will have the use of #1 wide receiver Hasise Dubois, which means they will be at full force on the offensive end.  

Three points at home for the top of the ACC Coastal Division.  Give me the Cavaliers all day.  

Pick: Virginia -3

Other Games I’m leaning

Florida -5

Temple +9