NCAAF Picks ATS

NCAAF Picks ATS, Week 9

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Temple Owls at Tulane Green Wave

The total for this game has taken a tumble from 64 to 59.5.  The drop of this magnitude is something I am going to jump on. 

These two teams have not stopped anyone. Tulane is coming off of giving up over 600 yards to UCF.  Temple is coming off of giving up 31 second half points to Memphis.   While they both played offensive oriented teams the lack of defense from both of these teams will transition to their next matchup.  

Temple was able to counter the Memphis offense with gaining some yard of their own behind QB  Anthony Russo.  The Owls gained 489 yards and got 30 first downs. Russo will have an advantage against a Tulane offense that has given up over 400 yards a game through the air. 

Tulane will rely on their running game averaging 232 yards per game (9th in the country).  Stephon Huderson leads Tulane with 397 rushing yards along with 3 TDs while Cameron Carroll has a team-high 7 touchdowns to go along with 341 rushing yards.

Temple is averaging 34 points, Tulane is averaging 36 points.  Add those together and you get 70 points per game. These two teams are a combined 5-1-1 to the over this season and it will continue on Saturday.  

Pick: Over 59.5

Oklahoma Sooners -14 at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oklahoma is coming off of two straight ATS covers against Texas and TCU.  They will continue to run their way through the Texas teams on Saturday versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The Sooners have not only won their last two but they also covered both of those games.  Matching up with Texas Tech  should allow for fireworks for Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler. 

Texas Tech is coming off of a game where they gave up 438 yards against a subpar West Virginia offense.  They will face a major step up in offensive competition.   The Red Raiders have given up tons of yards through the air.  The secondary has given up over 300 yards in three of five games this year and should be the fourth this weekend.  

This comes down to the fact that Texas Tech will not be able to get enough pressure on Rattler to force turnovers.  The Oklahoma defense made an appearance last week holding TCU to just 14 points.  Texas Tech will have no chance to keep up with the pace of the Sooners. 

Pick: Oklahoma Sooners  -14

Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11 at Syracuse Orange

Wake Forest is coming off of an upset win over Virignia Tech where they were eleven pount underdogs.  The win is their third straight.  They have won by causing turnovers, 10 in total over their last three victories.  Wake is at a +10 turnover margin in their victories. 

Syracuse is coming off of a “moral” victory by covering the spread against the vaunted Clemson Tigers.  Their performance against Clemson has given the market a false idea taht Syracuse is better than they really are.  Syracuse lost starting QB Tommy Devito early in the season against Duke.  Senior Rex Culpepper has not been good completing just 43% of his passes since taking over as the starter.  The lack of passing attack has killed the run game. Syracuse is only averaging 91 yard per game on the season.  

Much like the Demon Deacons, Syracuse has been turning opposing teams over (2.8 per game). Wake’s QB Sam Hartman has not thrown an interception this season.  He is considered a game manager that will not look to throw the ball down field.  In this matchup he won’t need to.  He will rely on the two-headed running monster.  Sophomore Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 449 yards and eight touchdowns on 90 attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Junior Christian Beal-Smith has added 71 carries for 385 yards and four scores, picking up 5.4 yards per attempt.

Syracuse has had a tough schedule.  They sit at the bottom of college football giving up nearly 500 total yards.  The run game will dominate and Sam Hartman will do enough to keep the defense honest.  This matchup reminds me of the Orange’s matchup with Liberty earlier this year.  Wake Forest will control the ball with the run game

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11

Overall Season Picks Record: 6-3

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 3

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Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5 at Indiana Hoosiers Total 60

The Buckeyes trampled the Cincinnati Bearcats last week 42-0. Justin Fields and company rolled through a Bearcat’s squad that was able to out muscle the UCLA offense the week before. Ohio State’s offense will always make the headlines while their defense got little recognition for pitching a shutout.  

In come the Indiana Hoosiers who had a scare versus Ball State (34-24) in week one and followed it up with a dismantling of Eastern Illinois (52-0).  It has been a complete team effort with two quarterbacks combining for five touchdowns and to five different receivers.  Their rushing attack is led by Stevie Scott’s 109 yards over the first two games.  

Ohio State has a 24-0-1 record against Indiana over their last 25 meetings.  They have also went 5-1 in their last six road games in September. 17.5 seems like a large number of the road against a Big Ten team but I see Indiana having trouble moving the ball against the stout Ohio State defense.  

Pick: Ohio State -17.5, Under 60

USC Trojans -4.5 at BYU Cougars, Total 55.5

USC is entering this game fresh off a beatdown of Stanford, (45-20) putting them in the top 25.  Freshman Kedon Slovis came out of nowhere to lead an offensive explosion.  USC has a clear advantage in talent all over the field including a very young and talented defense, the Trojans top eight tacklers are all underclassman.  While the inexperience hurt them last year, it is paying off early in 2019.  

While USC has the talent, BYU is coming off of an inspiring victory of their own against Tennessee.  The Cougars faced two power five schools in their first two games, holding both Tennesee and Utah to just 30% conversions on third down.  BYU has the ability to deflate the freshman QB who will be facing his first road test. This smells like a trap for USC.

Pick: BYU +4.5

Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights -9.5 

Stanford just blew a 17-3 lead versus a freshman quarterback in a division game.  They now get to face a UCF team that seems to have a never-ending chip on their shoulder. Stanford is limping on the offensive end and they will need every bit of it against UCF.  Stanford QB Davis Mills has only thrown for 318 total yards over their first two games, if they fall down early, they don’t have the offense to overcome.  

The Cardinal are giving up 351 yards per game over their first two as well as 7 touchdowns.  Those two teams don’t bring the same fire power as the Knights.  UCF should win this by two touchdowns.

Pick: UCF -9.5

Oklahoma Sooners -23.5 at UCLA Bruins

UCLA can’t score, even in a Chip Kelly system.  Oklahoma scores like they are playing intramural flag football with no refs.  Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley seem to have a great repartee in this offense which could lead to bigger things for Hurts in the long run. UCLA has name recognition and that’s about it right now.  This game is to easy, not much more analyses needed. 

Sooners roll by four touchdowns

Pick: Oklahoma -23.5

Other Picks:

Florida/Kentucky Under 47.5

Colorado State +10

Maryland -7