NCAAF Picks ATS Week 7

October 15, 2021 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks Total 53.5

The Razorbacks have become one of the most exciting teams in college football this season. The rebuild of the hogs has been one of the best stories of the college football season. They can get another statement win on Saturday when they take on the vulnerable Auburn Tigers coming off of a tough loss to Georgia last week.

KJ Jefferson has been awesome for the Hogs, he totaled 6 touchdowns against Ole Miss. Jefferson and the Arkansas offense have been dominant against anyone not named Georgia. Arkansas will be able to score points at home behind their run game. This offense has been able to find holes in most defenses with aggressive play calling. The Razorbacks entered this season with literally zero expectations, so they can go all out in every game.

Auburn has averaged 35 points per game this season. Most of those points were accrued against shotty defenses. They were able to put together two 60+ point performances against Alabama St and Akron. The Tigers have two monsters at RB in Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter, both have run for over 450 yards this season. Hunter is the big play back, while Bigsby is the consistent power runner that will break down a defense. They got to face off with an Arkansas defense that gave up 100 yards on the ground to two separate Ole Miss RBs. Bo Nix finally had his consecutive passes without an interception streak ended against Georgia’s top ranked defense.

Arkansas gave up 89 points in their last two games, which included 600 yards last week. Auburn may prefer to slow down the pace but they will have too many chances for explosive runs from Tank Bigsby. The Razorbacks will be able to provide enough offense to keep them in the game. This won’t be the shootout that last week’s Ole Miss- Arkansas game was but it will be feisty and high scoring, Auburn will prevail by just outscoring an Arkansas team that doesn’t have the defensive players to stop the run. The Razorbacks are also 3-0 to the over in their home games this season. They can score enough to make this interesting at least.

Pick: Over 53.5, Auburn ML

BYU Cougars at Baylor Bears -6.5

The BYU Cougars were on track to make an outside run at the the college football playoff until they were tripped up at the hands of the Boise State Broncos. The Cougars were uncharacteristically loose with the ball, turning it over four times at home. This was QB Jaren Hall’s first game back after sitting out the previous two games, throwing for 300 yards and a touchdown. Boise State was able to bottle up the scrambling ability of Hall, holding him to negative yardage. Hall will need to be able to utilize his scrambling ability to keep the Bears defense off balance. If the Baylor linebackers are forced to shadow Hall, it should open up running lanes for the Cougars stud running back Tyler Allegier. Allegier is 6th in college football running for 642 yards on the season.

Baylor has been a bit of a surprise to start the season. Their most recent blowout victory over West Virginia brought their record to 5-1 overall, 4-2 ATS. The Bears win with offense, averaging 38 ppg and averaging 450 yards per game. QB Gerry Bohannon was electric against the Mountaineers, throwing for 336 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Bears have been great at home going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Bears have the ability to put points up on you in a hurry, if they can hold downt he run game of BYU they should have success on the defensive end.

The Baylor Bears have Texas, TCU and Oklahoma coming up over the three weeks following this matchup. It would not be shocking to think they will be distracted in an obvious look ahead spot. The Bears should have enough to win this game but they will not be able to run all over a stingy BYU defense that has already shut down Pac 12 powerhouses Arizona State and Utah. BYU will try to run the ball to grind down the clock and not allow the Baylor offense to be on the field. Baylor is at home and brings more offense to the table but the Cougars should be able to stick around in this one. I’m rolling with the Cougars, if they don’t turn the ball over they are a handful to deal with.

Pick: BYU Cougars +6.5

Utah State Aggies at UNLV Rebels

Utah State kicked off their season with a trio of victories over Washington State, Air Force and North Dakota. Their momentum was immediately stopped when they ran into the class of the Mountain West in losses to both Boise State and BYU. They will travel to face off against a UNLV team that has been playing better but has been unable to get over the hump in their historic losing streak.

The Aggies have a vaunted passing game, averaging 303 yards through the air (15th in nation). Their uptempo offense has been a problem for opposing defenses, they have averaged 495 total yards per game. QB Logan Bonner has thrown for 1,235 yards, while his top target Deven Thompkins has put up 639 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Aggies also have a strong ground game averaging 175 yards per game. Utah State has a favorable matchup along with a whole week to prepare. They have taken advantage of lesser competition all season and should be able to do it again on Saturday.

UNLV has lost 11 straight games. Their most recent loss to UTSA they were torched through the air by Frank Harris for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Rebels will have to find a way to get pressure on Logan Bonner. Bonner has had problems with turnovers over the last two weeks. If UNLV is able to force takeaways they can stay in the game. The Rebels have only forced 6 takeaways through their first five games and will have to be prepared for the fast paced Aggies that are averaging 80 plays per game this season.

UNLV has to run the ball and control the clock, they do not have a defense that can match up with Utah State. It’s simple, if Utah State holds onto the ball, they should be able to score at will. Aggies will win in a route.

Pick: Utah State Aggies -6

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct.14

October 14, 2020 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Navy Midshipmen -2 at East Carolina Pirates

East Carolina has given up a lot og yards on the ground. The Pirates rank 126th in the nation against the run. The bread and butter of the Navy offense is on the ground. Navy’s ability to run will allow them to control the clock and keep the high powered East Carolina offense off the field.

Navy has had great success over their conference going 5-0 ATS in their last five games. East Carolina is just 1-9 straight up in their last ten. Navy’s run game will be too much to handle, they win this one easily due to their ball control.

Pick: Navy -2

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Both teams are coming off of great offensive showings last week. Georgia Tech put up 46 points versus the Louisville Cardinals, while Clemson continued their dominance putting up 41 against Virginia and 42 against Miami. These two teams have the ability to run and control the clock but they still move quickly and pick up yards in chunks. Clemson ranks 10th in yards per play while Georgia Tech surprisingly ranks 28th.

Clemson is a 27 point favorite in this game and they will likely be emptying the bench in the 4th quarter. They will be able to coast at the end which will provide the opportunity for the Yellow Jackets to put up some points late in the game. This one should be a scoring factory. Lots of points and a blow out.

Pick: Over 64

North Carolina Tarheels -13.5 at Florida State Seminoles

Living in a world of North Carolina being a double digit favorite on the road against Florida State is the world we live in right now. The Tarheels come into this matchup looking to continue to establish themselves as a serious contender in the ACC. The Seminoles are just looking to salvage a bit of credibility as they continue to rebuild.

Florida State replaced James Blackmon at QB with versatile sophomore Jordan Travis. He showed signs of life from the Seminole offense, outscoring powerhouse Notre Dame in the first quarter until reality took over and Notre Dame blew them out the rest of the way. Travis though will likely not be able to play on Saturday which means they have to go back to Blackmon which has been less than successful.

Florida State gave up 353 rushing yards to Notre Dame last week and now have to go up against the two headed monster Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. Combined they have rushed for almost 700 yards and eight touchdowns. The Tarheels need to not only win this game but do it in convincing fashion. They will roll over the Seminoles by three touchdowns.

Picks: North Carolina -13.5

Overall Season Picks Record: 2-1

NCAA Football Picks ATS- Nov. 2

November 2, 2019 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Wake Forest Demon Deacons -7.5

NC State just allowed Boston College to run all over them. They get the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday, one of the best offenses in the country. Wake enters 5^thin the country in total offense averaging 523.9 yards per game.

NC State will start a freshman QB Devin Leary on the road in a situation where they will need to score points. In Wake’s only loss of the season it took 62 points from Louisville. It’s hard to believe that NC State will be able to keep up with Wake’s offense.

The Wolfpack have been horrible on the road this season going 0-3 while not covering the spread in any of those games. Wake’s normal starting QB Jamie Newman is questionable for this game but the offense should still roll.

Pick Wake Forest -7.5

UNLV Running Rebels at Colorado State Rams -8.5

Colorado State has turned their season around with two straight victories over Fresno State and New Mexico. The Rams have done it on the defensive end, stopping teams on third down at a high rate. UNLV has been one of the worst team in the country on third down.

This is UNLV’s running game versus Colorado State’s passing game. This should be an exciting and ugly football game with a lot of mistakes. Colorado State is going to build off of their two straight victories, the Rams will destroy the Running Rebels by double digits.

Pick: Colorado State -8.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers Total: 58

Nebraska should have Adrian Martinez back for this game. The Cornhuskers broke out offensively against Indiana after three straight tough matchups. The Purdue pass defense can be picked apart, Martinez should be able to dominate this matchup with short to medium passes. A recharged Nebraska offense should be able to take serious advantage of the Boilmakers

Purdue QB Jack Plummer had a bad game against Illinois in tough weather conditions. Plummer was able to throw for over 700 yards in his previous two games versus Maryland and Iowa. Nebraska brings a solid pass rush but has not performed well against good or even mediocre QB play. This game has a lot of points coming.

Pick: Over 58

Other Picks:

Florida +6

NCAA Picks ATS Week 5

September 27, 2019 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers -24.5, Total 46.5

Northwestern blows. The chalk bet of last weekend was Northwestern +7 against Michigan State. That bet didn’t work out for most and never made sense in the first place. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in college football, they are now going to be greeted with a dominant Wisconsin defense.

Northwestern has had no success on any part of their offensive end. They especially have had issues with their passing game only connecting on 48% of their passes with just one touchdown to go along with six interceptions. Wisconsin has the #1 pas efficiency defense in the nation. That means that the Wildcats are going to have to try and run the ball. That game plan will not be very effective as the Badgers have given up a total of 20 yards per game this season.

Wisconsin is at home versus a team that can’t score. This should be a cake walk.

Pick: Wisconsin -24.5

Rutgers Scarlett Knights at Michigan Wolverines -28

Michigan is coming off of one of their most embarrassing losses in the Jim Harbaugh era. Getting embarrassed at the hands of Wisconsin last week has left a bad taste in the mouth of all Michigan players. Rutgers will now have the aggression of that loss taken out of them on Saturday.

I understand that Dylan McCaffery is most likely out and Shea Patterson is very beat up, leaving the quarterback play as a question mark. They seemed to figure it out at the end of the game after it was all but wrapped up. The Wolverines are at home, they are not facing the offensive and defensive lines of Wisconsin. This is Rutgers.

Again, this is Rutgers. Michigan has to dominate this game to work their way back into relevance. Look for pain.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -28

Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -11

Notre Dame is coming off of a valiant effort against Georgia. They now get a quietly interesting showdown with the Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavaliers have a dominant defensive front. They lead the ACC in tackles for a loss and lead the nation in sacks. They have yet to give up 100 rushing yards in any of their four games this season.

Virginia has been a tough out ATS against top teams. The Cavaliers have gone 13-3 ATS over their last sixteen games versus teams with winning records. The Irish have to feel a let done after the loss to Georgia and will come out sluggish. The Virginia front will be a tough challenge for Norte Dame, while their offense lead by Bryce Perkins has enough to keep them in the game. Notre Dame wins, but it won’t be easy.

Pick: Virginia +11

Other Picks:

Texas Tech +27.5

USC/Washington over 61

NCAA Football Week Two Picks ATS

September 4, 2019September 4, 2019 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes -16.5, Total: 55.5

I am one of the many that stopped watching the Buckeyes opening contest against Florida Atlantic after they jumped out to a 28-0 first quarter lead. The cover seemed like a forgone conclusion, unfortunately for Ohio State backers the Buckeyes were not able to hold the cover putting a stop to the offense

Justin Fields looked like the real deal accounting for five touchdowns in his first start, he will have a stiffer challenge coming versus a Cincinnati frontline that made life miserable for UCLA. Former Ohio State player, now Head Coach of Cincinnati Luke Fickell will have a veteran team that will not be intimidated by the name on the jersey. Fickell has a tough defense that will be able to stop the run early and make a game of it.

16.5 seems like the right gap due to the immense level of talent on Ohio State but the Bearcats bring a stout defense as well as a sharp veteran passer in Desmond Ridder. This game will be a dog fight early, but Ohio States overall talent will win out. I like Cincinnati to cover by my favorite play is the under.

Under 55.5, Cincinnati +16.5

Syracuse Orange at Maryland Terrapins -2, Total: 57.5

Syracuse’s offense seemed out of sync against the lowly Liberty Flames. Putting up just 24 points against the Flames defense. Syracuse’s new starting quarterback Tommy DeVito struggle on the road. He didn’t hit half of his passes, couldn’t do much down the field, and ended up throwing two picks. Syracuse will have a tough challenge against the stout Maryland defensive front. Maryland is coming off of domination of Howard winning 79-0 in week one while racking up eight sacks.

Maryland will be able to keep the Syracuse defensive front at bay with their rushing attack. The Terps were dominate on the ground with 317 rushing yards. This game will be a struggle to find out which offense can find its flow first. With Maryland at home and the early struggles of DeVito Syracuse can be in for a tough game.

Pick: Maryland -2, Under 57.5

West Virginia Mountaineers at Missouri Tigers, -14, Total: 62.5

The Missouri Tigers shockingly took a loss as 17-point favorites against Wyoming. Mizzou couldn’t hold onto the ball in their defeat with three fumbles, losing two of them.

The Tigers defense was also a huge problem giving up over 297 yards on the ground.

The Tigers were still solid on offense with Kelly Bryant throwing for over 400 yards and two touchdowns. Mizzou was the dark horse to win the SEC East but now will have to go back to the drawing board. A matchup with the rebuilding West Virginia Moutaineers at home should be just what the doctor ordered. West Virginia is coming off of a narrow victory versus respectable FCS James Madison. Mizzou should be able to run their offense efficiently against the Mountaineers defense. Look for the Tigers to jump out to a lead early and then step on the neck of their Big 12 foe.

Pick: Mizzou -14, Over 62.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers -4 at Colorado Buffaloes, Total: 64.5

This line has made an interesting move. Opening at -7 in favor of the Cornhuskers has moved all the way down to -4. This is most likely due to the subpar performance from Nebraska in week one versus South Alabama. There is a reason that teams schedule a lower level team early in the season, they can work out the kinks in the offense. The Nebraska defense took a nice step forward as the game went on causing five turnovers and sacking the QB four times.

Colorado was impressive against the powerful offense of Colorado State in week one, with a 21-point victory. First year head coach Mel Tucker was quick to point out the flaws from the Colorado defense though as they gave up 505 total yards along with 27 first downs. The Buff’s will have a step up in competition versus Nebraska. Scott Frost’s offense will find a way to turn it around in this matchup. With the line continuing to fall you can get the Cornhuskers at a value.

Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers -4, WAY OVER

NCAA Picks ATS Week 12

November 16, 2018 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Season Record: 28-29

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines -28

The Wolverines are on fire. The Hoosiers kind of stink. Still 28 points seems like way to much here. Jim Harbaugh will have a problem keeping his team focused with a rivalry game coming up next week against Ohio State.

Running the ball will not be an option against this stout Michigan defense. Hoosier QB Peyton Ramsey will have to stay accurate, a 67% passer for the season will need to be that accurate to keep his team in the game. Indiana will have to take whats given and continue to move the ball down field, the Hoosiers are solid on third down and will have to continue that on Saturday.

Michigan will most likely grab an early lead, which could be beneficial for Indiana bettors, both teams have much more to play for next week. Michigan winning by 30 won’t be whats on their mind. The Wolverines will take a lead early and play smart to avoid injuries. I like Michigan to win but four touchdowns is too much for me.

Indiana Hoosiers +28

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Kentucky Wildcats -16

MTSU has won six of their past seven games. While they are not a power five team they still bring in a hot streak that can’t be ignored. Sitting at 5-2 ATS over their last seven games the Blue Raiders are a promising choice for this weekend.

The Wildcats became a basketball school again after last weeks beat down by Tennessee. They are not a strong offensive team scoring 14, 14, 15, 17, and 7 in their October games. 16 points for a team that can’t score is too much. Kentucky will most likely win an ugly game but don’t be shocked to look up Saturday morning and see an early deficit for the Wildcats.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +16

Syracuse Orange vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish -10 (Neutral Site)

The Irish are in the drivers seat for the College Football playoff. The decline of USC has left a matchup with the surprising Syracuse Orange as the biggest threat to their chances.

The Fighting Irish have been unstoppable since placing Ian Book into the starting role, despite a rib injury that forced him out against Florida State Head Coach Brian Kelly believes Book will be ready to go. The Notre Dame offense should be in full force heading into Yankee Stadium, that could me trouble for the Orange.

This game smells like a blowout for the Fighting Irish. Veteran QB Eric Dungey and Head Coach Dino Babers don’t do anything but cover though. The Orange have the experience and leadership to keep this close. This is their second four game win streak of the year, that last streak was ended by the Clemson Tigers, another College Playoff team, the Orange won’t win but double digits is to much for this team.

Syracuse Orange +10

NC State Wolfpack -17 at Louisville Cardinals

This is a straight fading a bad team situation here. The Louisville Cardinals are just not good. They have finally solved their coaching situation but will that really make a difference for this season. Can they magically become a credible team? No.

NC State just got demolished by Wake Forest on primetime. They are coming for blood. Louisville is a disaster on both lines and they will get shredded by Ryan Finley if they can’t get pressure. Look for the NC State passing game to have a field day. Lousiville may have a direction now but they are already looking to next year. Bet NC State and take a nap during the game.

NC State Wolfpack -17

UConn Huskies at East Carolina Pirates

I know everyone is excited about this matchup of titans! 1-9 UConn vs 2-7 East Carolina is not a sexy game for college football fans looking to watch games with any meaning. For football fans that like offense, this one should be fun.

East Carolina has lost 5 straight after starting the season 2-2. They have played Memphis and Tulane tough over their last two week and were in need for a bit of a break. Their break comes this weekend whent they play a hapless Uconn team that has allowed everyone to steam roll them all season. East Carolina will throw and throw and throw until they are up by 20. Then they will throw some more. East Carolina is not a great team, but they roll in this one.

East Carolina Pirates -17

Other Picks:

USC -3

OK State +5

Iowa -14.5

Boston College -1.5

NCAAF Week 11 Pick ATS

November 9, 2018November 9, 2018 / italksportsandthatsit / Leave a comment

Season Record: 25-25

Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers -17

The Missouri Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the year dominating the Florida Gators last week. This week they get the Vanderbilt Commodores whom create rather different matchup.

The Commodores can keep up with the Missouri offense, Kyle Shurmur brings a bigger threat in the passing game then the dismal effort shown by Felipe Franks last week. The Commodores can also run the ball effectively, running for a season-high – against FBS teams – 250 yards with four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas a few weeks ago, led by a 176-yard day from Ke’Shawn Vaughn.

This is just to many points to for a Missouri team that loves to let down its fans. I see Mizzou winning this game but 17 points seems like to much.

Vanderbilt Commodores +17

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers -1.5

Indiana has lost four straight games including a rather embarrassing effort against Minnesota. The Indiana defense has given up over 150 yards rushing in each of its at four games. When the Terrapin can run the ball, they can win.

The Terrapins also have the ability to cause turmoil on the defensive end. With a suspect Indiana passing game going against a strong secondary, I see turnovers for the Hoosiers.

Maryland Terrapins +1.5

Ohio State -4 at Michigan State

If you just went off of analyst opinions you would think the Ohio State Buckeyes are at .500 or worse. The Buckeyes sit at 8-1, still technically in the running for a shot at the College Football Playoff. A win over a strong conference foe could be just the ticket to get them back on track.

Overshardowed by the negatives has been the terrific season by Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins. He set the OSU single-season record for completions against Nebraska and can break the single-season yardage mark with 278 against MSU. The Spartans, usually known for their stingy defense actuallly rank 98th in the country in pass defense.

Haskins will be to much for Michigan State, the Spartans will not be able to produce enoiugh on the offensive end to compete. Ohio States defense is bad but they don’t have to be great this weekend to cover.

Ohio State -4

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils -13.5

I don’t try to have many trends in my College Football bets. Mainly I just look at the lines I like and go with it. But I have seemed to find a nice niche in fading the UCLA Bruins. Last weeks Oregon game was easy money and I look to see the same outcome this week.

Two teams going in two different directions. It’s been a tale of two diffrerent coaches, while Chip Kelly has disappointed in his first season, Herm Edwards has already exceeded expectations. Arizona State has more weapons and have been tough at home. Look for the Sun Devils to roll.

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