Mike Foltynewciz

Mike Foltynewciz, Pitcher, Atlanta Braves

Folty had a terrible start to his 2019 season. His first half of the season was a complete dumpster fire that was impossible to put out. Foltynewciz was coming off of an All-Star appearance in 2018 where he had a 4.0 WAR. He was supposed to be the ace of a potential playoff team but that’s not how it went for him.

Foltynewicz had a real problem with the long ball. His HR/FB rate increased by 7% in 2019, giving up 16 homers in the first half of the season. He was sent to the minors in order to figure out what was causing the regression. The send down was exactly what was needed for the potential ace. The second half of the season showed the pitcher that the Braves thought they would have in 2019. The second half of the season.

ERA

TBF

IBB

HBP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

1st Half

59.1

6.37

260

.275

.336

.554

2nd Half

57.2

2.65

231

.211

.270

.357

.269

The Braves added a few veteran starters in Felix Hernandez and Cole Hamels. The two veterans will help stabilize the rotation and give leadership to a young rotation. Foltynewciz will now have two players to turn to if things begin to go wrong. Look for a bounce back season from the fireballer.

Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Indians

The bar was set very high for Jose Ramirez. Two straight seasons finishing third in the MVP voting. Ramirez was an offensive beast in 2017 and 2018 finishing both seasons with a WRC+ of 146. Ramirez was putting himself in elite categories of offensive players in all of baseball. Then a slump of epic proportion took place actually beginning for him in late August of 2018 continuing into June 0f 2019.

Ramirez was having problems hitting fastballs.

Before August 18, 2018- BA .336

After August 18, 2018- BA. 190

Ramirez began facing more shifts.

Before August 18, 2020- Shift percentage 18%

After August 18, 2020- Shift percentage 60%

Ramirez BABIP plummeted.

Before August 18, 2018- .301

After August 18 208- .209

The slump to start the 2019 season put Ramirez in a hole that was tough to pull out of. He began to make adjustments that turned his season around. His slash line in the second half showed the player that was a preseason MVP candidate .327/.365/.729. The return of power for Ramirez was a huge factor in the turn around of his season. His .412 ISO and a .302 BABIP propelled him back to offensive relevancy. Heading into the 2020 season Ramirez has a chance to reestablish himself as a premier hitter in the league.

Justin Upton, OF, Los Angeles Angels

A knee injury plagued Upton’s 2019 season, only playing in only 63 games. Upton will have a chance to bounce back in 2020 if fully healthy. The Angels have loaded up talent around Upton with the addition of Anthony Rendon. Upton will be battin being Mike Trout and Rendon giving him ample opportunity to drive in runs, something that he has done throughout his career. When fully healthy Upton has the ability to be a premium level producer. His 2018 campaign was below his usual level of production but he still produced a wRC+ of 123 and hit thirty homers.

A fully healthy Justin Upton will be a force in the middle of a potentially explosive offense in Los Angeles.

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Atlanta Braves

Marcell was supposed to have a huge payday this offseason. Unfortunately he was a by product of the new analytical world. Ozuna’s ISO (.231) and OPS (.800) are both above league average but doesn’t warrant the nine digit contract he was looking for. The Braves took a chance on Ozuna signing him to a one-year “prove it” deal that has become popular among major league teams. Ozuna’s 2019 team was not horrible but he has elite skills that will thrive in the steamy summers in Atlanta.

Ozuna had a portion of bad luck in 2019 with a BABIP of just .257, the lowest of his career. Despite the low batting average he actually had the best hard hit percentage of his career at 48.4%. Ozuna has real power that will thrive in a more hitter friendly park in Atlanta. With the MLB season being delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic Ozuna will have a chance to heal up heading into the season and should be able to show the potential we all saw when he was traded to St. Louis in 2017.

Honorable Mention:

Cory Knebel, Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers

Yu Darvish, Pitcher, Chicago Cubs

Ian Happ, Utility, Chicago Cubs

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

Alex Wood, Pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers

With a nine game slate upon us in DFS I wanted to pass along my plays for tonight August 2nd 2018. All prices based on Draft Kings.

Pitcher- Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves ($10,500)

Most people will be drawn to known aces Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. But with matchups against much better offenses I wanted to go with a much lesser known All-Star pitcher. Mike Foltynewicz has established himself at the top of the rotation starter. Playing in New York against a team that has been underwhelming to say the least should give Foltynewicz a better matchup to get him on track post All Star break.

In two post All Star break starts thus far Foltynewicz has struggled playing much higher level offenses of the Nationals and the Dodgers. Mike’s last start against a much more inspired Mets team on June 12th he was able to score 21.5 DK points. While you are paying a steep price at $10,500 I believe you will see a big upside and can save yourself over $1,000 when compared to the two previously mentioned aces.

SS/3B- Tim Beckham, Baltimore Orioles ($3,800)

Former prized draft pick Tim Beckham recently made a list of top 20 draft busts over the last ten years. With star Manny Machado in LA Beckham will see an increased role with the Orioles and I believe increased production. This Orioles/Rangers game looks and feels very stackable. Beckham stands out to me due to his mid-level cost and power/speed potential. Beckham’s is 3/4 in his career versus Yovanni Gallardo, while that is a small sample size I really like the exit velocity of 95.8MPH in those at bats. Not only did he hit Yovanni, those balls were destroyed.

SS/3B- Johan Carmago, Atlanta Braves ($4,100)

Carmago has been a big part of my DFS lineups this year, especially against lefties. The Braves showed that they are committed to Carmago at third base for the rest of the season by not making a move at the trade deadline. The matchup tonight vs Jason Vargas intrigues me. Carmago has shown great power against lefties slugging a ridiculous 200 points higher as a right handed batter. Vargas has also been a dumpster fire the entire season, there is no reason to think that is going to change. With Draftkings prices as high as they are playing a guy with major power upside and a low price is a need.

OF- Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers ($4,900)

The resurrection of Shin-Soo Choo is in full force in 2018, until the last 15 games. A matchup with Andrew Cashner is always a way to break a slump . Choo hits 60 points higher against righties as well as 15 point higher at home. Choo will have his chances during this game projecting to bat second. This game will be one that many pick on with the highest projected run total on the slate. I expected Choo to be a cornerstone in my lineup. I see a potential home run from him tonight.

1B- Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays ($4,100)

First base has its obvious choices. Paul Goldschmidt should be popular tonight, Joey Votto actually has some great career numbers versus Max Scherzer, Justin Bour versus a struggling Nick Pivetta is also intriguing. I am looking at Justin Smoak against the pitcher formally known as King Felix. Smoak is 6 for 10 in his career against Felix with a 95.2MPH exit velocity. He hits Felix very hard and consistently. Even though Smoak has not had the season he had in 2017 he has still been consistent with his power holding a season long ISO of .223.

Smoak’s price tag will allow you to make moves on some of the beast of the night like Mookie Betts and JD Martinez.

Stacks

Rangers

Braves

Secondary Pitchers

Mike Montgomery- Cubs

Felix Hernandez- Mariners

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