Liberty Flames

NCAAF Picks ATS Nov. 21

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Cincinnati Bearcats -6 at Central Florida Knights

The Bearcats are on the warpath after the destruction of East Carolina on Friday night.  The offense has been the story for Cincy, scoring at least 38 points in their last four games. QB Desmond Ridder has been  His development throwing the ball has finally caught up with his athleticism on the ground.  His balance is seen as he has passed for 886 yards while rushing for 398.  Ridder along with Bearcats RB Gerrid Doaks have been a two headed monster on the ground.  The Central Florida defense has a problem defending the run, giving up 189 yards per game. As a team Central Florida is giving up 447 yards per game. 

For the Knights to have a chance they have to be great on offense behind QB Dillon Gabriel.  He leads a team that is #1 in the nation in total yardage per game at 619.  Gabriel will likely have nightmares of his last matchup against Cincinnati where the Bearcats picked him off three times leading to Central Florida’s first loss in 19 games.  This will be the toughest defense the Knights have played all season. Cincinnati ranks top 10 in most defensive categories and have already shut down three prevalent American Conference offenses, Houston, SMU and Memphis.  This should be a good game but the Bearcats defense will force turnovers and allow them to cover in the end.  

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats -6

Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack

The Liberty Flames will travel to Raleigh North Carolina to take on the NC State Wolfpack in a game that will see two high powered offenses create fireworks.  The Flames have been one of the biggest surprises in college football with an 8-0 record and a win over Virginia Tech.  The Flames have won on the back of QB Malik Willis, who is coming off of a huge game against Western Carolina, throwing for 309 yards, 3TDS and adding two rushing TDs.  The Flames have had no issue putting up points this season averaging 39 per game (17th in the nation). 

North Carolina State has had an up and down season.  They sit at 5-3 after a 38-22 destruction of Florida State.  NC State has put up points as well this season averaging 33 per game versus much stiffer consistent talent then Liberty.  The Wolfpack are lead by QB Bailey Hockmann coming off of 265 yards and 3TD’s against the Seminoles.  He will be the best passer that Liberty has seen this year and will be trouble for a defense that has surprised many this year.  

Both of the teams will move fast and put up points in a hurry.  This game will be fun and profitable for over bettors. 

Pick: Over 67

Michigan State Spartans vs. Maryland Terrapins -6

Michigan State has been on an early roller coaster ride this season.  Reaching a high point in a victory over rival Michigan two weeks ago, they immediately plunged against Indiana getting shut out 24-0.  The Spartans have a real problem at QB.  Rocky Lombardi may be color blind as he continues to throw the ball to the wrong jersey.  With an amazing seven interceptions in just four games got him pulled late against Indiana.  He will not have to face a Maryland defense that forced three turnovers two weeks ago against Penn State.  

The Spartans will have to run the ball on Saturday to control the clock and keep Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa off the field.  Tua’s brother has begun to make a name for himself dissecting Big Ten defenses after his disastrous debut.  Tulia is hitting 72% of passes for a total of 676 yards and six touchdowns since the loss to Northwestern.  The Spartans will be able to plug on the run game but slowing down Tulia will not be likely.  

Michigan State will not be able to keep up with the Maryland offense which will ultimately be their downfall.  Spartans are rebuilding and they get a rested and fresh Maryland team that has found a great flow offensively.  

Pick: Maryland -6

Overall Season Picks Record: 9-7

NCAAF Picks ATS Oct 10

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Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Liberty Flames -19

The Liberty Flames offense is overwhelming.  They average 81 plays per game, which is top 15 in all of college football. Dual threat quarterback Mailk Willis had the offense moving in their week one upset of Western Kentucky.  The Auburn transfer rushed for 168 yards and 3 touchdowns in against the Hilltoppers leading to a victory as 14.5 point dogs.  

The Flames followed up their upset victory with two more wins over Nortern Alabama and FIU. Both games missed the cover but the momentum of the victories should have them ready to take care of business against the lowly Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. ULM gives up rushing yards in bunches ranking 127th in college football against the run.  Willis should be able to control the game with his ability to run and his sneaky passing attack.  

Liberty is a veteran team that has won seven consecutive games at home dating back to last year and they will not look past ULM.  ULM is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home. 

Pick: Liberty -19

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners -2.5 

Two teams that have underperformed to start the season meet in a rivalry game that will have a lot less impact on the college football playoff than most would have thought at the beginning of the season.   These two teams are both in need of a win and a statement game.  

Sooner redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler has been a roller coaster in his first three starts throwing for 290, 387, and 300.  He has had a problem with turnovers in the clutch with four picks against Big 12 opponents.  The pressure will be on in his first go round in the Red River Showdown.  His matchup with the Texas Longhorns will be favorable. Texas is coming off back to back games giving up 56 and 33 to Texas Tech and TCU respectively.  

Texas will have senior Sam Ehlinger running the offense looking for a big win in his final showdown with Oklahoma. The Texas offense is averaging 518 yards and 51 points per game.  Oklahoma has not shown the ability to stop anyone this season and a veteran team that is desperete for a win will be a problem.  

Both teams have great offenses, they will show them off this weekend.  I look for Ehlinger to make the big play down the stretch to win but I am more comfortable with taking the over. 

Pick: Over 72 (lean Texas ML)

LSU Tigers -14 at Missouri Tigers 

This game was supposed to be played at Baton Rouge, due to hurricane Delta this game was moved to Columbia, Missouri.  The move caused a line change from -20 to -14.  Missouri is 1-9 ATS in their last ten games.  They have given up 35 and 38 respectively over their last two games.  Matching up with an LSU offense that isn’t the same national title contending group but they are still no walk in the park. 

Missouri found some offense once they inserted Connor Bazelak into the lineup over TCU transfer Shawn Robinson. They will have to be on their game early because if they let LSU grab a lead they still haven’t figured out how to turn yardage into touchdowns.   

Missouri’s inability to get stops on third down crushed them last week against Tennessee.  If they can’t get off the field their defense will wear down. LSU QB Myles Brennan has thrown for 330 or over in each game along with seven touchdowns   If he finds it early and grabs a lead they will coast the rest of the way. 

Pick: LSU -14