The Sooners are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games, including victories over Alabama, Texas, Kansas and West Virginia. With a litany of big victories under their belt they came out flat in their last matchup against Iowa State, sneaking by the Cyclones by only ten points and failing to cover the spread. I expect Lon Kruger’s bunch will come out to set the tone early on the road against the cellar dweller Kansas State. They will look to make quick work of a team that historically they have not had a lot of success against.
Oklahoma is not an offensive juggernaut, when they do score, they do it efficiently, ranking 31st in offensive efficiency. Austin Reaves, De’Vion Harmon and Brady Manek all average double figures and should be able to have their way with a less than stellar Kansas State defense that gives up 72 ppg and 46% shooting. In their first matchup of the year Oklahoma handled Kansas State winning 76-50 on January 19th. They were able to cover the spread while only shooting 11/21 from the free throw line. It was their top 20 ranked defense that shined forcing 23 Wildcat turnovers.
Kansas State has no offensive identity, because they don’t score. They average just 61 ppg with an effective field goal percentage of 47.6 on the season ranking them near the bottom. They don’t shoot three well (29%) and they can’t make anything from the free throw line (65%), their leading scorer is Nijuel Pack who averages 12 per game, he didn’t play in their first matchup with the Sooners but he will have a tough task of going against Reaves and Harmon, they will lock him down and stop any kind of K-State offensive push. The Wildcats don’t have any kind of home court advantage either, they are 3-12 ATS at Bramlage Coliseum.
Oklahoma is better in every facet of the game and will show it on Tuesday night. 10.5 points on the road is a lot but the Sooners have a defense that will hold K-State under 60 and Lon Kruger will take advantage of multiple mis-matches.
Play of the day: Oklahoma Sooners -10.5
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