Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Playoffs Picks ATS

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Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

The Raiders dispatched Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers to earn the last playoff spot in the AFC. Their reward is a matchup with another stud QB Joe Burrow and the NFC North Champion Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals are ahead of schedule in their rebuild. The Bengals were road warriors this year, going 6-2 ATS and 5-3 overall on the road. One of those road wins was a 32-13 beating of the Raiders on November 21st. Joe Mixon dominated on the ground, running for 123 yards and two touchdowns. The time of possession was widely in favor of the Bengals at +15 minutes.

The Bengals are not a run first team but they are able to lean on Mixon in the right matchups. If they can establish the run again they can neutralize the biggest defensive asset of the Raiders, their pass rush. Joe Burrow has multiple weapons to take advantage of the Raiders stacking the box and should be able to pick apart the defense if he gets 1on 1 coverage on Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase.

Their defense may have a slight advantage but I don’t see how their offense can keep up with Joe and the boys. Vegas leads the NFL in penalty yards per game at 63 yards per game, while the Bengals are one of the more disciplined teams in football. This is a ten point game at least. Rolling with Joe, cigars for everyone.

Pick: Bengals -6

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

This game is simple. Can Buffalo stop the New England run game? They stop the run, they win the game. They don’t stop the run, they lose.

The Bills have the #1 overall defense in the NFL. They however possess the #13 overall defense against the run. The Patriots have shown the ability to run the ball in their two matchups with Buffalo, the infamous “wind” game was a ground dominate effort leading the a Patriots victory, in matchup two the Bills offense shined. Josh Allen led the Bills to a 33-21 victory in Foxboro, while giving up 103 yards and three tuddys to Damien Harris.

The Patriots have struggled down the stretch because of the regression of rookie Mac Jones. Over his last five he has thrown five interceptions. Belicheck will not allow the game to be on the shoulders of his rookie QB. He will limit the throws and pound the ball right down the middle of the Buffalo defense. Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will be available, which means fresh legs for the Patriots run game.

Josh Allen is a stud, but this is the third meeting this year, hard for me to believe the Patriots won’t be ready to limit his downfield throws.

This division matchup will be gritty, no matter what this will be decided by a field goal. I like the Patriots to keep this close and potentially win because Allen can’t get the ball in his hands enough.

Pick: Patriots +4

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

A lot of things went right to allow the Pittsburgh Steelers to get into the playoffs. The luck has run out. The Chiefs have found their groove at the right time and they get the best matchup they could possibly ask for with an over the hill relic of a hall of fame QB in Big Ben.

The Chiefs smacked the Steelers in the face just two weeks ago. They will do it again on Sunday, ending a historic career, finally. The Chiefs hold the advantage in nearly every category, including on the defensive end. The “vaunted” Steelers defense ended the season in the bottom ten in points against. Their inability to stop the run has allowed teams to control the clock and score at will. If they can’t get pressure on the QB they are basically just crash pads in the middle of the field. The Chiefs have averaged 35 points per game over their last four, the Steelers just don’t have the firepower to match them.

The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. They are red hot, fully healthy and playing at home. The Steelers would be a nice story but Big Ben hasn’t had a QBR over 35 in his last five games. If they fall behind its going to be tough to beat the Chiefs if your QB can’t throw it over 20 yards. Najee Harris will likely make a big play at some point and Dionte Johnson will break loose, but it won’t be enough. Double digits in the playoffs is never an easy cover but this one is a mismatch of organization going in different directions.

Pick: Chiefs -13

My new favorite NFL team had a great draft.

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The death of the XFL was close to the near death of my fandom for professional football.  As a St. Louis native I have now seen two professional teams disappear from my city over the last five years.  I had totally bought into the Battlehawks.  I was screaming KaKaw along with my fellow St. Louisans and dreaming of the future of football in my city and it was taken away again.  Now on the hunt for a new team to support once again, I have found myself on the outskirts of the band wagon the Kansas City Chiefs have been pushing around my city.  While the Chiefs may be a Missouri team my inability to connect with a fanbase that is underrated in their obnoxiousness will forever keep me from enjoying their greatness.  I went into the 2020 draft looking for a team and I may have found it.  Maybe…..

The Draft

First Round Pick: WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama

Second Round Pick: WR KJ Hamler, Penn State

Third Round Pick: CB Michael Ojemudia, Iowa

Fourth Round Pick: TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri

The Broncos look like they have found their franchise quarterback in 2nd year quarterback Drew Lock.  Lock started the season on the bench waiting for the franchise to realize that Joe Flacco was no longer a viable NFL quarterback.  When Lock was finally given the chance he ran with it, cementing himself as the new starting quarterback of the present and future. In his five starts the Broncos went 4-1, throwing for 1,020 yards along with a 64% completion rate.  Immediately a chemistry between Lock and new #1 receiver Courtland Sutton developed.  The offense was lacking further exterior threats other than Sutton leading into the draft.  They were able to find what they were looking for at the #15 pick, grabbing Alabama wide receiver Jerry Jeudy.  Jeudy was competing with CeeDee Lamb for the top rated player at their position.  Jeudy has the ability to get separation on the college level averaging 7.8 yards after the catch. His speed will transition to the NFL as well as his ability to make plays from anywhere on the field.  

The Broncos continued to be aggressive in filling needs on the offensive end grabbing KJ Hamler out of Penn State.  Another player with great speed that will fit into the slot receiver role.  He is a little further away from a completed project than the other recievers that were available in the draft.  If he can fit into the slot role he could be a sleeper that makes an impact in big ways during the season. He is an explosive potential playmaker.  

An underrated 4th round pick was the playmaker out of Mizzou,  tight-end Albert Okwuegbhunam.  A very raw prospect that will have time to develop behind Noah Fant.  Okuegbhunam averaged a touchdown every four catches in college, he is a future red zone threat if he can improve on his routes and speed off the line.  He was a high upside pick that won’t be forced into anything right away.  I loved that Denver was willing to take the talent in the later rounds.  

Defensively, Denver’s No. 2 corner position was a revolving door all season last year; it’s possible Michael Ojemudia was selected to be a potential starter sometime in the near future.  He will fit into Vic Fangio’s system which can hide deficiencies of the secondary allowing them to gain experience and progress in the NFL. 

Free Agency

Free Agent addition: RB Melvin Gordon, OL Graham Glasnow

The Broncos quietly had a great offseason before the draft. GM John Elway knew that he needed to protect his new franchise Quarterback.  Adding veteran Graham Glasnow on a 4-year deal from Detroit was a great way to help fill a hole in the line.  

After suring up the line the Broncos went out and made a surprising impact signing.  Adding former Charger Melvin Gordon in free agency has put Denver in the conversation for potentially the best runningback combination in the entire NFL. 

I loved everything Denver did in the draft.  They were clearly trying to build around their young quarterback.  Adding speed and athletes that are NFL ready. This team is a serious contender for a playoff spot in 2021.  John Elway has made some mistakes over the last few years but it is looking like he has found his groove as a GM.