NCAAB Play of the Day: Toledo at Miami-OH

The top team in the MAC the Toledo Rockets are in action on Tuesday night against a surprise competitor in the MAC East the Miami-OH Redhawks.  

The Toledo Rockets are 8-1 in the conference averaging 79 ppg in 2021.  The Rockets are putting the ball in the hope consistently and quickly.  Their 79 ppg rank them 25th in the nation and have an effective FG% of 53.5%. They have multiple scorers that make life tough for opposing defenses. Their leading scorer is Marron Jackson who is averaging 17 ppg and is coming off of a 31 point game against Akron.  

Toledo will have to deal with the red hot Miami-OH Redhawks who have won three straight games and put up 85, 96 and 81 over that span.  Much like their counterparts the Redhawks have been lighting it up from three.  They are second in the MAC in 3-pt % at 38% (31st in the nation).  The Redhawks are led by guard Dae Dae Grant, averaging 13.4 per game and coming off of a career high 27 points in their latest victory over Eastern Michigan.  

These two teams are both on fire offensively.  Toledo has especially been an over machine on the road with a 6-1 record to the over away from home.  Miami-OH has been 4-2 to the over at home on the season and have hit the over in 3 straight games.  While neither team is highly touted for their pace they are both offensive efficient and shoot the three at a high level.  This game should be set around 150, it currently sits at 146 which gives some great value for Tuesday’ action.  I am rolling with the over in a game that should stay competitive.  

Play of the day: Over 146 

NCAAF Picks ATS, Week 9

Temple Owls at Tulane Green Wave

The total for this game has taken a tumble from 64 to 59.5.  The drop of this magnitude is something I am going to jump on. 

These two teams have not stopped anyone. Tulane is coming off of giving up over 600 yards to UCF.  Temple is coming off of giving up 31 second half points to Memphis.   While they both played offensive oriented teams the lack of defense from both of these teams will transition to their next matchup.  

Temple was able to counter the Memphis offense with gaining some yard of their own behind QB  Anthony Russo.  The Owls gained 489 yards and got 30 first downs. Russo will have an advantage against a Tulane offense that has given up over 400 yards a game through the air. 

Tulane will rely on their running game averaging 232 yards per game (9th in the country).  Stephon Huderson leads Tulane with 397 rushing yards along with 3 TDs while Cameron Carroll has a team-high 7 touchdowns to go along with 341 rushing yards.

Temple is averaging 34 points, Tulane is averaging 36 points.  Add those together and you get 70 points per game. These two teams are a combined 5-1-1 to the over this season and it will continue on Saturday.  

Pick: Over 59.5

Oklahoma Sooners -14 at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oklahoma is coming off of two straight ATS covers against Texas and TCU.  They will continue to run their way through the Texas teams on Saturday versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The Sooners have not only won their last two but they also covered both of those games.  Matching up with Texas Tech  should allow for fireworks for Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler. 

Texas Tech is coming off of a game where they gave up 438 yards against a subpar West Virginia offense.  They will face a major step up in offensive competition.   The Red Raiders have given up tons of yards through the air.  The secondary has given up over 300 yards in three of five games this year and should be the fourth this weekend.  

This comes down to the fact that Texas Tech will not be able to get enough pressure on Rattler to force turnovers.  The Oklahoma defense made an appearance last week holding TCU to just 14 points.  Texas Tech will have no chance to keep up with the pace of the Sooners. 

Pick: Oklahoma Sooners  -14

Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11 at Syracuse Orange

Wake Forest is coming off of an upset win over Virignia Tech where they were eleven pount underdogs.  The win is their third straight.  They have won by causing turnovers, 10 in total over their last three victories.  Wake is at a +10 turnover margin in their victories. 

Syracuse is coming off of a “moral” victory by covering the spread against the vaunted Clemson Tigers.  Their performance against Clemson has given the market a false idea taht Syracuse is better than they really are.  Syracuse lost starting QB Tommy Devito early in the season against Duke.  Senior Rex Culpepper has not been good completing just 43% of his passes since taking over as the starter.  The lack of passing attack has killed the run game. Syracuse is only averaging 91 yard per game on the season.  

Much like the Demon Deacons, Syracuse has been turning opposing teams over (2.8 per game). Wake’s QB Sam Hartman has not thrown an interception this season.  He is considered a game manager that will not look to throw the ball down field.  In this matchup he won’t need to.  He will rely on the two-headed running monster.  Sophomore Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 449 yards and eight touchdowns on 90 attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Junior Christian Beal-Smith has added 71 carries for 385 yards and four scores, picking up 5.4 yards per attempt.

Syracuse has had a tough schedule.  They sit at the bottom of college football giving up nearly 500 total yards.  The run game will dominate and Sam Hartman will do enough to keep the defense honest.  This matchup reminds me of the Orange’s matchup with Liberty earlier this year.  Wake Forest will control the ball with the run game

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11

Overall Season Picks Record: 6-3

NCAAF Football Picks ATS Week 9

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats +23.5

The Wildcats bring in the perfect matchup for a cover.  Kansas State has been the best in the Big12 at defending the pass, giving up just 152.5 yards pe game, 5thbest in the entire country. That is what Oklahoma is all about.  While I don’t see Kansas State completely shutting down the pass game, I do see them forcing Oklahoma to run the ball more than they would like which can slow up the attack.

Kansas State will look to do what they do best and possess the ball.  They will look to run and run often with work horse runningback James Gilbert. The longer they can keep Jalen Hurts off the field the better chance they have to survive.  

Oklahoma wins, but Kansas State gives them a tough game. 

Pick: Kansas State +23.5

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

This was supposed to be a matchup of undefeated powerhouses.  Wisconsin may have been looking too far ahead as they became the biggest upset of 2019, losing to Illinois on a last second field goal.  The Badgers turned the ball over three times against the Illini, which helped blow  20-7 second half lead. 

Ohio State has done everything possible to show that they are the cream of the crop in college football, dominating every game. The competition hasn’t been great, that all changes on Saturday.  Despite their loss Wisconsin still sees themselves as the top of the food chain in the Big10. The Badgers have to come out and establish Jonathon Taylor early and often. Wisconsin is averaging 38 minutes of possession per game. They will work to grind out the Buckeyes and force them to play from behind, something they have not done at all this season.  

Wisconsin is the biggest test for the Buckeyes this season, Ohio State QB Justin Fields has not seen a defense that can bring the pressure the way Wisconsin can.  Buckeyes win but they are tested.

Pick: Wisconsin +14.5

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans +6.5

Michigan State’s offense has disappeared since their shocking loss to Arizona State.  The Spartans have averaged a paltry 5.7 points per game over their last three.  Michigan State has not shown the ability to play up to the higher level of competition. Ohio State and Wisconsin beat the hell out of the Sparty, and they will have similar trouble coming their way on Saturday.

Sophomore QB Sean Clifford has been superb with a 56% completion percentage, helping the Nitany Lions get out to a 7-0 start.  Despite the 7-0 start Penn State has had trouble covering against ranked opponents, failing to cover against Michigan and Iowa.   They have a terrible history versus Michigan State, going 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six matchups.  

Penn State’s history is not what I am worried about.  Looking past Michigan State is the only thing that I am worried about.  This matchup is not as highly regarded as it would be if Michigan State hadn’t been embarrassed by Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Penn State has to stay focused and overcome the recent history of these two teams.  Penn State’s offense is just too strong for Michigan State’s defense to handle.  Penn State will grab a lead early and that will be to much for the Spartans to overcome. 

Pick: Penn State -6.5

Other Games:

Texas -1

App State -27

Marshall/ Western Kentucky over 44.5

NCAA Picks ATS Week 5

Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers -24.5, Total 46.5

Northwestern blows. The chalk bet of last weekend was Northwestern +7 against Michigan State.  That bet didn’t work out for most and never made sense in the first place. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in college football, they are now going to be greeted with a dominant Wisconsin defense.  

Northwestern has had no success on any part of their offensive end.  They especially have had issues with their passing game only connecting on 48% of their passes with just one touchdown to go along with six interceptions. Wisconsin has the #1 pas efficiency defense in the nation. That means that the Wildcats are going to have to try and run the ball.  That game plan will not be very effective as the Badgers have given up a total of 20 yards per game this season.  

Wisconsin is at home versus a team that can’t score.  This should be a cake walk.

Pick: Wisconsin -24.5

Rutgers Scarlett Knights at Michigan Wolverines -28

Michigan is coming off of one of their most embarrassing losses in the Jim Harbaugh era.  Getting embarrassed at the hands of Wisconsin last week has left a bad taste in the mouth of all Michigan players.  Rutgers will now have the aggression of that loss taken out of them on Saturday.  

I understand that Dylan McCaffery is most likely out and Shea Patterson is very beat up, leaving the quarterback play as a question mark.  They seemed to figure it out at the end of the game after it was all but wrapped up.  The Wolverines are at home, they are not facing the offensive and defensive lines of Wisconsin.  This is Rutgers.  

Again, this is Rutgers. Michigan has to dominate this game to work their way back into relevance.  Look for pain.  

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -28

Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -11

Notre Dame is coming off of a valiant effort against Georgia.  They now get a quietly interesting showdown with the Virginia Cavaliers.  The Cavaliers have a dominant defensive front.  They lead the ACC in tackles for a loss and lead the nation in sacks.  They have yet to give up 100 rushing yards in any of their four games this season. 

Virginia has been a tough out ATS against top teams. The Cavaliers have gone 13-3 ATS over their last sixteen games versus teams with winning records. The Irish have to feel a let done after the loss to Georgia and will come out sluggish.  The Virginia front will be a tough challenge for Norte Dame, while their offense lead by Bryce Perkins has enough to keep them in the game. Notre Dame wins, but it won’t be easy.

Pick: Virginia +11

Other Picks:

Texas Tech +27.5

USC/Washington over 61

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 3

Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5 at Indiana Hoosiers Total 60

The Buckeyes trampled the Cincinnati Bearcats last week 42-0. Justin Fields and company rolled through a Bearcat’s squad that was able to out muscle the UCLA offense the week before. Ohio State’s offense will always make the headlines while their defense got little recognition for pitching a shutout.  

In come the Indiana Hoosiers who had a scare versus Ball State (34-24) in week one and followed it up with a dismantling of Eastern Illinois (52-0).  It has been a complete team effort with two quarterbacks combining for five touchdowns and to five different receivers.  Their rushing attack is led by Stevie Scott’s 109 yards over the first two games.  

Ohio State has a 24-0-1 record against Indiana over their last 25 meetings.  They have also went 5-1 in their last six road games in September. 17.5 seems like a large number of the road against a Big Ten team but I see Indiana having trouble moving the ball against the stout Ohio State defense.  

Pick: Ohio State -17.5, Under 60

USC Trojans -4.5 at BYU Cougars, Total 55.5

USC is entering this game fresh off a beatdown of Stanford, (45-20) putting them in the top 25.  Freshman Kedon Slovis came out of nowhere to lead an offensive explosion.  USC has a clear advantage in talent all over the field including a very young and talented defense, the Trojans top eight tacklers are all underclassman.  While the inexperience hurt them last year, it is paying off early in 2019.  

While USC has the talent, BYU is coming off of an inspiring victory of their own against Tennessee.  The Cougars faced two power five schools in their first two games, holding both Tennesee and Utah to just 30% conversions on third down.  BYU has the ability to deflate the freshman QB who will be facing his first road test. This smells like a trap for USC.

Pick: BYU +4.5

Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights -9.5 

Stanford just blew a 17-3 lead versus a freshman quarterback in a division game.  They now get to face a UCF team that seems to have a never-ending chip on their shoulder. Stanford is limping on the offensive end and they will need every bit of it against UCF.  Stanford QB Davis Mills has only thrown for 318 total yards over their first two games, if they fall down early, they don’t have the offense to overcome.  

The Cardinal are giving up 351 yards per game over their first two as well as 7 touchdowns.  Those two teams don’t bring the same fire power as the Knights.  UCF should win this by two touchdowns.

Pick: UCF -9.5

Oklahoma Sooners -23.5 at UCLA Bruins

UCLA can’t score, even in a Chip Kelly system.  Oklahoma scores like they are playing intramural flag football with no refs.  Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley seem to have a great repartee in this offense which could lead to bigger things for Hurts in the long run. UCLA has name recognition and that’s about it right now.  This game is to easy, not much more analyses needed. 

Sooners roll by four touchdowns

Pick: Oklahoma -23.5

Other Picks:

Florida/Kentucky Under 47.5

Colorado State +10

Maryland -7 

I Talk Sports Picks- NCAAF

After a few tough weeks of NFL I have decided to separate my NCAA picks.  Last week I went 7-2 with a lot of late picks cashing, including Michigan State, Stanford and Wisconsin.  Here are the five picks I that jumped out to me first.

Syracuse at Clemson -25

Syracuse enters this matchup at 4-0 for the first time since 1991.  Matching up with the beasts of the ACC the Clemson Tigers on Saturday will be a true test to see where the program is.  While Clemson deals with the semi-distraction of the transferring Kelly Bryant they can’t look past this he Orange. The Orange are trying to prove that last year’s win over Clemson wasn’t a fluke and that they’re a legitimate ACC contender. A win this Saturday would most certainly do that and potentially land them in the Top 25 for Week 6.

You can be bold here and take Syracuse to upset Clemson, but I am not that bold.  I do think this spread is a bit large for this matchup.  Syracuse is good and they should keep this close.

PicksSyracuse +25

Indiana -16.5 at Rutgers

Rutgers got blown out by Kansas.   That’s Kansas Football.  With basically no passing game.  After a nice start to the season against Texas State Scarlet Knight quarterbacks have combined to complete just 44% of their passes with no touchdowns, five interceptions, and absolutely nothing happening down the field.

This is more about how bad Rutgers is then how good Indiana is.  Don’t worry about where the number goes right now you have to fade Rutgers no matter what.

PicksIndiana -16.5

Oklahoma State -17 at Kansas

I have picked on Kansas all year.  It finally paid off versus Baylor.  This weekend it will pay off again as the Cowboys come to town.  This is a simple case of to much offense for Kansas to stay afloat in this one. Oklahoma State quarterback Taylor Cornelius has thrown for 1,229 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Justice Hill leads the Cowboys in rushing with 388 yards and five touchdowns. The leading receiver is Tylan Wallace with 442 yards and two touchdowns. Tyron Johnson has 206 receiving.

This is the best offense Kansas has seen and they will have no answers for it.  Oklahoma State literally doubles total yardage both rushing and receiving on a game to game basis.  OK State takes over early and never looks back.

PicksOklahoma State -17

Arkansas vs Texas A&M -21 (Neutral Site)

Arkansas has been down right embarrassing to start the season scoring just 47 points over their last 3 games while giving up 112 to opposing offenses.  They now get a matchup with a Texas A&M team that has been averaging 300 passing yards and 250 rushing yards a game.   The Aggies have also covered in its last five games.

This will be a chance to Texas A&M to run up a score on a team that looks to have all but given up any chance of winning this season.

PicksTexas A&M -21

Pittsburgh at Central Florida -13.5

In last weeks game against North Carolina, the Panthers defense stayed home and allowed 476 total yardage against a North Carolina squad that had been struggling and battling injuries.  They now face arguably the best offense in college football when they face the “National Champion” Central Florida Knights.

I am going to keep it simple here.  Central Florida at home steamrolls a struggling defense.  Mac Milton throws for 330yards and 4TD’s.

PicksCentral Florida -13.5