Gambling Picks

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes: Slower pace favors the Badgers

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A classic matchup of Big Ten rivals will take place in Columbus Thrusday night when the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Ohio State Buckeyes.  Both teams find themselves towards the bottom the Big Ten and both are desperate for a win 

Wisconsin enters on a three game losing streak, shockingly failing to cover the spread in their last ten games.  The decline of the Badgers began when star forward Tyler Wahl suffered an injury; losses to Northwestern and Maryland without Wahl showed that the Badgers have depth issues behind their starting lineup. Wahl returned to the lineup last Saturday versus Illinois but was only able to play 19 minutes in the loss.  To pull off the upset Wisconsin has to find a way to make some shots, as a team they are shooting just 42% from inside the arc, relying heavily on the three point shot. Ohio State defends the three well, but does have a tendency to give open looks in their losses.  The return of Wahl should force more double teams in the post opening up shots for Chucky Hepburn and company from the outside.

Ohio State will have the best player on the court in Brice Sensabaugh, he leads an offense that is 3rd in the Big Ten in scoring, averaging 76 ppg.  The Buckeyes have thrived in high scoring games, if they are allowed to run their offense at their pace they control the ball.  Wins over teams like Iowa, Cincinnati and Texas Tech were all games in the 80’s were they could run their offense without resistance.  Sensabaugh controls the offense, but he also has a steady post presence in Zed Key.  Key should be able to control the post against a Wisconsin team that is terrible on the glass.  

Ohio State has the superior offense but they will be forced into a grind it out affair with a Wisconsin team that is not going to allow Sensabaugh to control the pace.  The Badgers slow pace will keep this a low scoring affair. The Badgers are due for some positive regression. The return of a healthy Tyler Wahl will help the offense return to form.  Ohio State has statistically defended the three well but they do tend to allow open shots.  If Wisconsin hits a few shots it will open up the middle for Wahl and company to work inside.  This number is too high for a conference game with a fully healthy Badger team.  I am rollng with Wisconsin.

Pick: Wisconsin +7

CBB Play of Day- Feb 4

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Western Carolina Catamounts at VMI Keydets

VMI has been one of the better offenses in college basketball all season. They average 76 ppg, they are 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in effective field goal percentage (55%), 24th in 3-pt percentage 37%.  They are a well oiled machine on the offensive end.  Their offense has gotten them victories over Southern League power houses Furman and Wofford.  They traveled to ACC power Wake Forest, got a cover and challenged a very good Demon Deacon team. The Keydets like to play fast and they have three players that average double digits led by big man Jake Stevens, averaging 18 per game. 

Western Carolina ended their five game losing streak in their last game versus ETSU.  The Catamounts rely on shooting the three to create their offense.  They are #2 in the country in 3PA per game but they are outside of the top 250 in 3-point percentage. There will not be many second chances for the Catamounts as VMI is very good at cleaning up the glass on the defensive end.  If they are not hitting their shots their offense will not be able to keep up with a VMI team that will be able to do whatever they want. 

Both of these teams are terrible on the defensive end.  The difference is, VMI is an elite level team on the offensive end.  The Catamounts will not have an answer for the uptempo attack VMI is going to bring to them. Statistically Western Carolinais one of the worst defenses in the country.  They are going up against one of the best offenses in the country. While it’s hard to trust the defense of VMI, I am going to bank on the offense being too much to handle on the road.  

Pick: VMI -11

AFC Playoffs Picks ATS

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Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

The Raiders dispatched Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers to earn the last playoff spot in the AFC. Their reward is a matchup with another stud QB Joe Burrow and the NFC North Champion Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals are ahead of schedule in their rebuild. The Bengals were road warriors this year, going 6-2 ATS and 5-3 overall on the road. One of those road wins was a 32-13 beating of the Raiders on November 21st. Joe Mixon dominated on the ground, running for 123 yards and two touchdowns. The time of possession was widely in favor of the Bengals at +15 minutes.

The Bengals are not a run first team but they are able to lean on Mixon in the right matchups. If they can establish the run again they can neutralize the biggest defensive asset of the Raiders, their pass rush. Joe Burrow has multiple weapons to take advantage of the Raiders stacking the box and should be able to pick apart the defense if he gets 1on 1 coverage on Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase.

Their defense may have a slight advantage but I don’t see how their offense can keep up with Joe and the boys. Vegas leads the NFL in penalty yards per game at 63 yards per game, while the Bengals are one of the more disciplined teams in football. This is a ten point game at least. Rolling with Joe, cigars for everyone.

Pick: Bengals -6

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

This game is simple. Can Buffalo stop the New England run game? They stop the run, they win the game. They don’t stop the run, they lose.

The Bills have the #1 overall defense in the NFL. They however possess the #13 overall defense against the run. The Patriots have shown the ability to run the ball in their two matchups with Buffalo, the infamous “wind” game was a ground dominate effort leading the a Patriots victory, in matchup two the Bills offense shined. Josh Allen led the Bills to a 33-21 victory in Foxboro, while giving up 103 yards and three tuddys to Damien Harris.

The Patriots have struggled down the stretch because of the regression of rookie Mac Jones. Over his last five he has thrown five interceptions. Belicheck will not allow the game to be on the shoulders of his rookie QB. He will limit the throws and pound the ball right down the middle of the Buffalo defense. Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will be available, which means fresh legs for the Patriots run game.

Josh Allen is a stud, but this is the third meeting this year, hard for me to believe the Patriots won’t be ready to limit his downfield throws.

This division matchup will be gritty, no matter what this will be decided by a field goal. I like the Patriots to keep this close and potentially win because Allen can’t get the ball in his hands enough.

Pick: Patriots +4

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

A lot of things went right to allow the Pittsburgh Steelers to get into the playoffs. The luck has run out. The Chiefs have found their groove at the right time and they get the best matchup they could possibly ask for with an over the hill relic of a hall of fame QB in Big Ben.

The Chiefs smacked the Steelers in the face just two weeks ago. They will do it again on Sunday, ending a historic career, finally. The Chiefs hold the advantage in nearly every category, including on the defensive end. The “vaunted” Steelers defense ended the season in the bottom ten in points against. Their inability to stop the run has allowed teams to control the clock and score at will. If they can’t get pressure on the QB they are basically just crash pads in the middle of the field. The Chiefs have averaged 35 points per game over their last four, the Steelers just don’t have the firepower to match them.

The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. They are red hot, fully healthy and playing at home. The Steelers would be a nice story but Big Ben hasn’t had a QBR over 35 in his last five games. If they fall behind its going to be tough to beat the Chiefs if your QB can’t throw it over 20 yards. Najee Harris will likely make a big play at some point and Dionte Johnson will break loose, but it won’t be enough. Double digits in the playoffs is never an easy cover but this one is a mismatch of organization going in different directions.

Pick: Chiefs -13

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 9

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Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans +4

Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football. Under second year coach Mel Tucker the Spartans have thrived on both sides of the ball.  The Spartans have Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker in the backfield.  Walker has run for 997 yards and 9 touchdowns on the season. The Spartan offense will lean on the run, but they also have a solid passing game behind QB Payton Thorne.  Thorne has thrown for fifteen touchdowns and just four interceptions.  The Michigan front is tough but they will be forced to stack the box to stop the run, which will allow for man coverage for Thorne to pick apart.  Thorne has two different receivers, Jayden Reed and Josh Nailor, both have 27 catches and both are going to be big problems for the Michigan defense.

Michigan has the exact same strategy on offense.  They will lean on the run in order to set up the pass. The Wolverines have two runners, Blake Corum and Hassan Hankins both have run for over 600 yards on the season. The Michigan State defense has been very good against the run.  The Spartans are holding opposing Big Ten teams to just 3.3 yards per carry.  If Michigan cannot establish the run they will have to rely on Cade McNamara for the first time this season.  McNamara is averaging just 21 throws per game and has only thrown two balls over 40 yards. 

Both teams average 200 yards on the ground, both average 30+ points per game.  Both have solid defenses, giving up just 18 ppg (Michigan) and 14 ppg (Michigan State).  The difference will be the QB play. Payton Thorne has the ability to take over the game, Cade McNamara has not shown that same ability.  Jim Harbaugh has not won the big game in his career at Michigan, this one is the biggest game of 2021.  The Spartans are not the team of 2020, their explosive offense will set them apart on Saturday, as well as their advantage at home.  I love the Spartans at +4, but it’s worth it to go after the ML.

Pick: Michigan State Spartans ML +160 or +4 for safety net

Arkansas State Red Wolves at South Alabama Jaguars -9

South Alabama QB Jake Bently has led the Jaguar offense all year.  Bently has thrown for 1,825 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season.  The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS at home this season.  The offense will be able to put up points against a putrid defense, but their key advantage will be on the defensive side of the ball. South Alabama is top 5 in the country against the pass.  Bently and company will be able to put up points at will and their defense matches up perfectly with the Red Wolves biggest strength.

Arkansas State has lost 6 in a row, including all three of their road contests.  The Red Wolves have been a powerhouse through the air this season (348 yards per game).  Most of their air yards have come due to the inability to stop the opposing offense.  The Arkansas State defense ranks dead last in the country against the run and dead last in rush offense. The Red Wolves inability will make it tough for QB James Blackmon to run the offense that they want.  

South Alabama is coming off of a bad loss to UL Monroe, they will be motivated in front of their home crowd to make a statement.  The defense will be the difference in a high scoring affair.  The Jaguars will take a few punches but they ultimately will take the lead and run with it. 

Pick: South Alabama Jaguars -9

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs 

Kentucky is coming off of a miracle cover over powerhouse Georgia two weeks ago. They got a week off and now will go on the road to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  The Wildcats are 2-0 ATS on the road, both against SEC opponents.  In contrast the Bulldogs are just 1-3 ATS at home.  

The Bulldogs are good offensively.  QB Will Rogers has completed 73% of his passes, helping his team to average 423 yards of offense per game (50th in nation).  Rogers has had his struggles during the season, throwing seven interceptions and getting sacked 20 times.  Mississippi State will have to try and limit the Kentucky pass rush. The Wildcats are very good at applying pressure at 6.78% sack percentage while only giving up 17 ppg on the season. 

Kentucky will not have a walk in the park on offense.  The Bulldogs shut down the run, allowing just 98 yards per game. The matchup of the Miss State defense against star RB Chris Rodriguez should make for an interesting matchup.  Rodriguez has rushed for 775 yards, adding 5 touchdowns as the cornerstone of the Kentucky offense.  Kentucky QB Will Levis will give him some room to run, his dink and dunk game should allow them to move the ball downfield and wear down the defense.  

This game is going to be a gritty matchup between two teams that rely a lot on their defense.  The Bulldogs have had a problem protecting the QB and that will be exasporated on Saturday.  Kentucky will get pressure on Will Rogers which will lead to turnovers and Wildcat touchdowns.  

Pick: Kentucky ML -105

NCAAB Play of the Day: Toledo at Miami-OH

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The top team in the MAC the Toledo Rockets are in action on Tuesday night against a surprise competitor in the MAC East the Miami-OH Redhawks.  

The Toledo Rockets are 8-1 in the conference averaging 79 ppg in 2021.  The Rockets are putting the ball in the hope consistently and quickly.  Their 79 ppg rank them 25th in the nation and have an effective FG% of 53.5%. They have multiple scorers that make life tough for opposing defenses. Their leading scorer is Marron Jackson who is averaging 17 ppg and is coming off of a 31 point game against Akron.  

Toledo will have to deal with the red hot Miami-OH Redhawks who have won three straight games and put up 85, 96 and 81 over that span.  Much like their counterparts the Redhawks have been lighting it up from three.  They are second in the MAC in 3-pt % at 38% (31st in the nation).  The Redhawks are led by guard Dae Dae Grant, averaging 13.4 per game and coming off of a career high 27 points in their latest victory over Eastern Michigan.  

These two teams are both on fire offensively.  Toledo has especially been an over machine on the road with a 6-1 record to the over away from home.  Miami-OH has been 4-2 to the over at home on the season and have hit the over in 3 straight games.  While neither team is highly touted for their pace they are both offensive efficient and shoot the three at a high level.  This game should be set around 150, it currently sits at 146 which gives some great value for Tuesday’ action.  I am rolling with the over in a game that should stay competitive.  

Play of the day: Over 146 

NCAAF Picks ATS, Week 9

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Temple Owls at Tulane Green Wave

The total for this game has taken a tumble from 64 to 59.5.  The drop of this magnitude is something I am going to jump on. 

These two teams have not stopped anyone. Tulane is coming off of giving up over 600 yards to UCF.  Temple is coming off of giving up 31 second half points to Memphis.   While they both played offensive oriented teams the lack of defense from both of these teams will transition to their next matchup.  

Temple was able to counter the Memphis offense with gaining some yard of their own behind QB  Anthony Russo.  The Owls gained 489 yards and got 30 first downs. Russo will have an advantage against a Tulane offense that has given up over 400 yards a game through the air. 

Tulane will rely on their running game averaging 232 yards per game (9th in the country).  Stephon Huderson leads Tulane with 397 rushing yards along with 3 TDs while Cameron Carroll has a team-high 7 touchdowns to go along with 341 rushing yards.

Temple is averaging 34 points, Tulane is averaging 36 points.  Add those together and you get 70 points per game. These two teams are a combined 5-1-1 to the over this season and it will continue on Saturday.  

Pick: Over 59.5

Oklahoma Sooners -14 at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Oklahoma is coming off of two straight ATS covers against Texas and TCU.  They will continue to run their way through the Texas teams on Saturday versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The Sooners have not only won their last two but they also covered both of those games.  Matching up with Texas Tech  should allow for fireworks for Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler. 

Texas Tech is coming off of a game where they gave up 438 yards against a subpar West Virginia offense.  They will face a major step up in offensive competition.   The Red Raiders have given up tons of yards through the air.  The secondary has given up over 300 yards in three of five games this year and should be the fourth this weekend.  

This comes down to the fact that Texas Tech will not be able to get enough pressure on Rattler to force turnovers.  The Oklahoma defense made an appearance last week holding TCU to just 14 points.  Texas Tech will have no chance to keep up with the pace of the Sooners. 

Pick: Oklahoma Sooners  -14

Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11 at Syracuse Orange

Wake Forest is coming off of an upset win over Virignia Tech where they were eleven pount underdogs.  The win is their third straight.  They have won by causing turnovers, 10 in total over their last three victories.  Wake is at a +10 turnover margin in their victories. 

Syracuse is coming off of a “moral” victory by covering the spread against the vaunted Clemson Tigers.  Their performance against Clemson has given the market a false idea taht Syracuse is better than they really are.  Syracuse lost starting QB Tommy Devito early in the season against Duke.  Senior Rex Culpepper has not been good completing just 43% of his passes since taking over as the starter.  The lack of passing attack has killed the run game. Syracuse is only averaging 91 yard per game on the season.  

Much like the Demon Deacons, Syracuse has been turning opposing teams over (2.8 per game). Wake’s QB Sam Hartman has not thrown an interception this season.  He is considered a game manager that will not look to throw the ball down field.  In this matchup he won’t need to.  He will rely on the two-headed running monster.  Sophomore Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 449 yards and eight touchdowns on 90 attempts, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Junior Christian Beal-Smith has added 71 carries for 385 yards and four scores, picking up 5.4 yards per attempt.

Syracuse has had a tough schedule.  They sit at the bottom of college football giving up nearly 500 total yards.  The run game will dominate and Sam Hartman will do enough to keep the defense honest.  This matchup reminds me of the Orange’s matchup with Liberty earlier this year.  Wake Forest will control the ball with the run game

Pick: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11

Overall Season Picks Record: 6-3

NCAAF Football Picks ATS Week 9

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Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats +23.5

The Wildcats bring in the perfect matchup for a cover.  Kansas State has been the best in the Big12 at defending the pass, giving up just 152.5 yards pe game, 5thbest in the entire country. That is what Oklahoma is all about.  While I don’t see Kansas State completely shutting down the pass game, I do see them forcing Oklahoma to run the ball more than they would like which can slow up the attack.

Kansas State will look to do what they do best and possess the ball.  They will look to run and run often with work horse runningback James Gilbert. The longer they can keep Jalen Hurts off the field the better chance they have to survive.  

Oklahoma wins, but Kansas State gives them a tough game. 

Pick: Kansas State +23.5

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5

This was supposed to be a matchup of undefeated powerhouses.  Wisconsin may have been looking too far ahead as they became the biggest upset of 2019, losing to Illinois on a last second field goal.  The Badgers turned the ball over three times against the Illini, which helped blow  20-7 second half lead. 

Ohio State has done everything possible to show that they are the cream of the crop in college football, dominating every game. The competition hasn’t been great, that all changes on Saturday.  Despite their loss Wisconsin still sees themselves as the top of the food chain in the Big10. The Badgers have to come out and establish Jonathon Taylor early and often. Wisconsin is averaging 38 minutes of possession per game. They will work to grind out the Buckeyes and force them to play from behind, something they have not done at all this season.  

Wisconsin is the biggest test for the Buckeyes this season, Ohio State QB Justin Fields has not seen a defense that can bring the pressure the way Wisconsin can.  Buckeyes win but they are tested.

Pick: Wisconsin +14.5

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans +6.5

Michigan State’s offense has disappeared since their shocking loss to Arizona State.  The Spartans have averaged a paltry 5.7 points per game over their last three.  Michigan State has not shown the ability to play up to the higher level of competition. Ohio State and Wisconsin beat the hell out of the Sparty, and they will have similar trouble coming their way on Saturday.

Sophomore QB Sean Clifford has been superb with a 56% completion percentage, helping the Nitany Lions get out to a 7-0 start.  Despite the 7-0 start Penn State has had trouble covering against ranked opponents, failing to cover against Michigan and Iowa.   They have a terrible history versus Michigan State, going 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six matchups.  

Penn State’s history is not what I am worried about.  Looking past Michigan State is the only thing that I am worried about.  This matchup is not as highly regarded as it would be if Michigan State hadn’t been embarrassed by Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Penn State has to stay focused and overcome the recent history of these two teams.  Penn State’s offense is just too strong for Michigan State’s defense to handle.  Penn State will grab a lead early and that will be to much for the Spartans to overcome. 

Pick: Penn State -6.5

Other Games:

Texas -1

App State -27

Marshall/ Western Kentucky over 44.5

NCAA Picks ATS Week 5

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Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers -24.5, Total 46.5

Northwestern blows. The chalk bet of last weekend was Northwestern +7 against Michigan State.  That bet didn’t work out for most and never made sense in the first place. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in college football, they are now going to be greeted with a dominant Wisconsin defense.  

Northwestern has had no success on any part of their offensive end.  They especially have had issues with their passing game only connecting on 48% of their passes with just one touchdown to go along with six interceptions. Wisconsin has the #1 pas efficiency defense in the nation. That means that the Wildcats are going to have to try and run the ball.  That game plan will not be very effective as the Badgers have given up a total of 20 yards per game this season.  

Wisconsin is at home versus a team that can’t score.  This should be a cake walk.

Pick: Wisconsin -24.5

Rutgers Scarlett Knights at Michigan Wolverines -28

Michigan is coming off of one of their most embarrassing losses in the Jim Harbaugh era.  Getting embarrassed at the hands of Wisconsin last week has left a bad taste in the mouth of all Michigan players.  Rutgers will now have the aggression of that loss taken out of them on Saturday.  

I understand that Dylan McCaffery is most likely out and Shea Patterson is very beat up, leaving the quarterback play as a question mark.  They seemed to figure it out at the end of the game after it was all but wrapped up.  The Wolverines are at home, they are not facing the offensive and defensive lines of Wisconsin.  This is Rutgers.  

Again, this is Rutgers. Michigan has to dominate this game to work their way back into relevance.  Look for pain.  

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -28

Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish -11

Notre Dame is coming off of a valiant effort against Georgia.  They now get a quietly interesting showdown with the Virginia Cavaliers.  The Cavaliers have a dominant defensive front.  They lead the ACC in tackles for a loss and lead the nation in sacks.  They have yet to give up 100 rushing yards in any of their four games this season. 

Virginia has been a tough out ATS against top teams. The Cavaliers have gone 13-3 ATS over their last sixteen games versus teams with winning records. The Irish have to feel a let done after the loss to Georgia and will come out sluggish.  The Virginia front will be a tough challenge for Norte Dame, while their offense lead by Bryce Perkins has enough to keep them in the game. Notre Dame wins, but it won’t be easy.

Pick: Virginia +11

Other Picks:

Texas Tech +27.5

USC/Washington over 61

NCAAF Picks ATS Week 3

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Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5 at Indiana Hoosiers Total 60

The Buckeyes trampled the Cincinnati Bearcats last week 42-0. Justin Fields and company rolled through a Bearcat’s squad that was able to out muscle the UCLA offense the week before. Ohio State’s offense will always make the headlines while their defense got little recognition for pitching a shutout.  

In come the Indiana Hoosiers who had a scare versus Ball State (34-24) in week one and followed it up with a dismantling of Eastern Illinois (52-0).  It has been a complete team effort with two quarterbacks combining for five touchdowns and to five different receivers.  Their rushing attack is led by Stevie Scott’s 109 yards over the first two games.  

Ohio State has a 24-0-1 record against Indiana over their last 25 meetings.  They have also went 5-1 in their last six road games in September. 17.5 seems like a large number of the road against a Big Ten team but I see Indiana having trouble moving the ball against the stout Ohio State defense.  

Pick: Ohio State -17.5, Under 60

USC Trojans -4.5 at BYU Cougars, Total 55.5

USC is entering this game fresh off a beatdown of Stanford, (45-20) putting them in the top 25.  Freshman Kedon Slovis came out of nowhere to lead an offensive explosion.  USC has a clear advantage in talent all over the field including a very young and talented defense, the Trojans top eight tacklers are all underclassman.  While the inexperience hurt them last year, it is paying off early in 2019.  

While USC has the talent, BYU is coming off of an inspiring victory of their own against Tennessee.  The Cougars faced two power five schools in their first two games, holding both Tennesee and Utah to just 30% conversions on third down.  BYU has the ability to deflate the freshman QB who will be facing his first road test. This smells like a trap for USC.

Pick: BYU +4.5

Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights -9.5 

Stanford just blew a 17-3 lead versus a freshman quarterback in a division game.  They now get to face a UCF team that seems to have a never-ending chip on their shoulder. Stanford is limping on the offensive end and they will need every bit of it against UCF.  Stanford QB Davis Mills has only thrown for 318 total yards over their first two games, if they fall down early, they don’t have the offense to overcome.  

The Cardinal are giving up 351 yards per game over their first two as well as 7 touchdowns.  Those two teams don’t bring the same fire power as the Knights.  UCF should win this by two touchdowns.

Pick: UCF -9.5

Oklahoma Sooners -23.5 at UCLA Bruins

UCLA can’t score, even in a Chip Kelly system.  Oklahoma scores like they are playing intramural flag football with no refs.  Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley seem to have a great repartee in this offense which could lead to bigger things for Hurts in the long run. UCLA has name recognition and that’s about it right now.  This game is to easy, not much more analyses needed. 

Sooners roll by four touchdowns

Pick: Oklahoma -23.5

Other Picks:

Florida/Kentucky Under 47.5

Colorado State +10

Maryland -7