Detroit Lions

Fantasy Football- Four late round targets

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Value is the key to having a successful fantasy football draft. Finding sleepers is not an easy thing to do.  Injuries and stupidity from your conterparts can sometimes work out in your favor.  Here are a few guys that you can grab late that can end up being in that playoff lineup.  

Javonte WIlliams, RB, Denver Broncos, ADP: 64

Williams put up ridiculous numbers in his final season at North Carolina, finishing the season with 22 touchdowns and averaging 7.3 yards per carry. He was snagged in the second round by the Denver Broncos.  Williams will have to contend with veteran Melvin Gordon for carris but his experience sharing carries in college will prepare him for that role.  He will step onto the field ready to make the most of every touch.

When drafting Williams you may have to wait a few weeks to get the payback but the organization spent a top 35 pick on him which means they want him to play immediately.  Gordon is in his age 28 season and has a history of injury issues, you could likely see a time split early on in the season with Williams ability ultimately winning over the position.  

The Broncos have question marks with Drew Lock but the offensive weapons are still there and can create a lot of scoring opportunities. The solid Broncos defense could also play a factor into games, keeping it close, allowing the offense to play ball control with its two running backs.  Williams ability to break any play will be a great asset for your fantasy team.

Jamal Williams, RB, Detroit Lions, ADP: 125

Another overlooked Williams in the backfield is former Packer Jamaal Williams who inked a deal with the rival Detroit Lions in the offseason.  Williams has already shown the ability to make the most of his touches playing behind fantasy standout Aaron Jones last season.  Getting potentially limited touches behind second year runner De’Andre Swift shouldn’t deter you from taking a chance on the 26-year-old power runner. 

The Lions moving from Mathew Stafford to Jared Goff is a change in the offensive gameplan. Jared Goff’s style of play opens up the run game, utilizing the play action.  Goff has consistently had running backs that have excelled behind him.  The Lions starting RB Deandre Swift has shown an inability to stay on the field, which will mean more carries for Williams who has the ability to be an every down back. 

Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets, ADP: 123

A former first round pick that has become the focal point of a new offense with a dynamic QB at the helm.  That former first round pick is also coming off of the best season of his career and will likely be the deep threat for a team that will be playing from behind a lot during the 2021 season. With a new QB means a new favorite target and Zach Wilson has already made it clear that Davis is going to be his favorite. Wilson has thrown to Davis in 55% of his throws in the preseason. 

The Jets have rebuilt their offensive line in the offseason in order to protect their #2 overall pick. The idea is that Wilson will be allowed to let loose just like he did at BYU and if that is the ase the #1 option will be Corey Davis.  The best part is that you can get a top receiver with your 11th round pick or maybe even later.  

Ja’Mar Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, ADP: 59

Rookie receivers can come with risks.  It is one of the hardest positions to learn at the next level.  Luckily for Ja’Mar Chase he has a built in chemistry with QB Joe Burrow because of their time at LSU.  Chase has had a tough preseason, three drops on three targets in their most game has a lot of fantasy owners questioning him which could allow you to pick him up late in your drafts.  

The Bengals threw the ball a lot last season, regression is likely but when the game is on the line they will be looking to throw the ball.  The former LSU standout will get a lot of one-on-one coverage due to last year’s emergence of Tee Higgins.  Chase has the ability to be a top ten wide receiver as he progresses throughout the season.  Bengals Head Coach Zac Taylor was the mastermind that was able to bring the best out of Jared Goff, utilizing multiple wide receivers over the middle for short passes that eventually could open up the big play.  Joe Burrow is  way ahead of Goff and Chase is the most talented receiver on the team.  He will have an impact on a fantasy championship.

NFL coaches that have to be fired.

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Football is always built around overreactions.  The shortest professional sports season means every game is given ample time to critique each and every decision.  Coaching careers can be dictated by their ways of adjusting from week to week.  

Matt Patricia – Detroit Lions

I believed that Matt Patricia was going to finally commit to the run last year. Kerryon Johnson looked like a future star that could take a lot of the pressure off of Mattew Stafford.  Utilizing the run has all but disappeared due to the lack of the ever having an actual lead.  

Patricia’s record is a  dismal 9 – 23 since taking over in 2018.  While win/loss records can have asterisks needed around them due to injuries, notably last year, when Mathew Stafford missed most of the regular season it’s the complete ineptitude of the Lions on the defensive end that has to force the hand of the organization.  Patricia came to Detroit as the former defensive coordinator of the vaunted Patriots.  In his first season with Detroit the Lions ranked 16th in overall team defense.  It was middle of the pack and somewhat acceptable in his first season.  In year number two The Lions declined to 26th in the league.  

The Lions collapse in the 4th quarter of game one of the season was an example of the decline of the organization.  The Lions continually add talent to the team on both ends of the ball but the leadership has not been able to find the right mix to be successful.  The NFC North has been up for the taking over the last few seasons, but the Lions continue to take no steps forward.  

Dan Quinn – Atlanta Falcons

Dan Quinn has been in Atlanta for six years. He took them to a superbowl in 2016 where they infamously blew a lead to Tom Brady and the Patriots. Quinn followed up the superbowl appearance with a 10-6 record in 2017.   Since then the Falcons are 14-18 and have lost games in ways that will make their teams puke.  

Atlanta has wasted one of the best offenses in the league over the last two years.  In 2018 the Falcons actually ranked top ten in the league in total defense but they gave up a staggering 401 yards per game. The defense was way worse in 2019 and has continued to give up yards in the first two games of 2020.  They inexplicably play man to man coverage allowing teams to pick apart the secondary of their choosing.  The lack of defensive adjustments is staggering to watch.  

The Falcons blew a lead to the Dallas Cowboys this weekend due to the stupidity of the coaching staff.  The refusal of Dirk Koetter to lean on the outside zone runs is baffling.  The Cowboys were dealing with multiple injuries that opened up the possibility of running out the clock. 

Quinn is a problem because he refuses to make the changes to coaching concepts.  A team that continually gives up big leads has no other option but to blame the head coach. 

Adam Gase- New York Jets

The New York Jets seem like a cursed franchise.  An organization that has a great history in the league is snake bitten by bad decisions.  The worst of those decisions could be maintaining the services of Adam Gase. 

Gase was the coach in Miami when they drafted Ryan Tannehill.  Tannehill had zero progression in his time with Gase, he actually lost his job and eventually found himself in Tennesee.  Now away from Gase, Tannehill has established himself as an offensive threat.  Gase’s inability to connect with his team and quarterback could not only hurt the organization but waste the talent of Sam Darnold.  Darnold’s numbers on paper aren’t horrible but his decision making seems to continue to be a problem.  That shows a lack of preparation from the coaching staff.  

The Jets picked up Le’Veon Bell last season and instead of focusing the offense on the premier runningback, they focused on Sam Darnold continually throwing the ball.   The Jets offensive approach doesn’t make any sense.  They are going to waste a great talent if they don’t move on from Gase now.  Darnold may not get a second chance like Tannehill.  

Bill O’Brien- Houston Texans

The Houston Texans will likely find a way to win the AFC South.  That’s what they do.  Houston has had a tough start to the season, playing the defending champion Chiefs and the powerful Balitmore Ravens. Excuses will come his way but we can never forget that he has had tons of problems with relationships with his players and a history of stupid decisions.  

No matter what happens this season, he moved DeAndre Hopkins and didn’t even get a first round pick.  Brandin Cooks, Joey Galloway and Percy Harvin are just a few of the wide receivers that all were moved for first round picks.  This is unforgivable. 

Oh and the fake punt last year against the Chiefs.  Just plain stupid.  How does this guy really have a job right now?

I Talk Sports Picks- NFL, NCAAF

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2-8 to start the season sucks but we have to tread on.  Late adds again helped us out but we can only document what we put on this page.  Eventually it all turns around and this week could be the week.

NFL

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings -17

17 points is a huge margin in the NFL.  Let’s look at the facts, LeSean McCoy has busted ribs, Rookie QB Josh Allen making his second start, Bills defense has players retiring in the first half.  This has beat down written all over it.

Minnesota was not happy with their performance in week two versus an injured Aaron Rodgers, they will come out hungry to make a statement at home.  We could see a few more Bills players retiring at halftime in this one.  While 17 points may be a lot, in this case that may be to low.

PicksVikings -17

Chicago Bears -6 at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have been the definition of awful through the first two games of the 2018-19 season. Scoring just 6 points over their first two games they now get a matchup with a stingy Chicago Bears defense.

Sam Bradford’s QB rating sits at a league worst 55.6 with his longest pass play so far being 15 yards to Larry Fitzgerald.  Star runningback David Johnson has been limited to 14 touches in their week two matchup which will never lead to a victory.  While the Bears don’t yet feature a top level offense with the still developing Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, they have begun to progress with a new go to receiver in Allen Robinson.  Look for the bears to establish Jordan Howard early and Khalil Mack to potentially injure Sam Bradford.  Opening up the door for Josh Rosen…a door that should be at the least unlocked.

PicksBears -6

New England Patriots -6.5 at Detroit Lions

Let’s start with the obvious.  Since 2000, New England is 21-6 against the spread following a double digit loss.  Tom Brady does not take losing well and Bll Belichick will not allow his former coordinator to look good against him. For what it’s worth, Belichick has faced former assistants who went on to be head coaches on 18 occasions and has posted a 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS record.

Even without the pickup of Josh Gordon I would think this is a huge advantage for the New England Patriots.  Gronk, White, Michel, Hogan and company should all have big days.  This should be a blow out.

PicksPatriots -6.5

NCAAF

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines -17.5

Nebraska took a humbling loss last Saturday to Sun Belt for Troy, the first time since 1957 that the Huskers have lost their first two games of a season. Many will look at these first two home losses and say the Huskers will be on a mission this weekend in Ann Arbor.  I see it a different way.

Nebraskas first two losses of the season came at home to lesser competition then the Wolverines.  It is Michigan that has something to prove in this game.  They are still look to make a statement on the national scene.  If Michigan can avoid turnovers while finally establishing the run they can dominate the game and take this home easily.  I may wait and see if the money begins to come in on Nebraska as I expect it will.

PicksMichigan -17.5

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Maryland Terrapins -1.5

I watched this line move from 3 to 1.5 over the last week. With two key injuries for the Golden Gophers, RB Rodney Smith and QB Zack Annexstad the offense should be partially neutralized.

The Terps are coming off a disaster of a game losing to Temple 35-14.  They return home to face a Minnesota team that has yet to face a real power five team.  Maryland’s offense has been rough early in the season but with the homefield advantage and a litany of injuries Maryland should be able to pull this one out.

PicksMaryland -1.5

Boston College Eagles -6.5 at Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue beat me last week putting up points against the horrid Mizzou defense sinking what looked like a sure thing. But they still took an L in a game where the momentum was in their favor. Boston College will feature AJ Dillon in the backfield spear heading a dominant running attack that has averaged 296 yards per game over their first 3.

Purdue is no doubt better then their record may show but after a few brutal losses and facing a team with a solid pass rush and runningback that will allow BC to utilize clock management this will be a tall task for Purdue.

PicksBoston College -6.5

 

James “Why Not” Pick of the Week 1-1 .

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers

Last week I road the Tannehill train to victory over the Jets.  The Dolphins being an underdog in that game never really made much sense but I will take the victory.  This week is a little tougher.  I wanted to go with a college game but none of them seemed to stand out.  So I went with a team that is hot.

The Cincinnati Bengals have started the season 2-0 with a couple of impressive victories, they head into Carolina to take on a beat up Panthers squad.  The Panthers will need to rely on their defense, forcing a turnover will be huge especially from Andy Dalton. When Dalton throws one interception in a game, the Bengals are 21-13-1 straight up and 17-14-4 against the spread. However, should Dalton throw two picks, that record dips to 10-16-1 SU and 8-16-3 ATS.  I don’t think the loss of Joe Mixon will play a huge factor as Gio Bernard is a veteran that knows the role he must play.

PicksBengals +3