Colts

NFL Division Picks – 2023

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I am a day late on these picks but Thursday’ game confirmed my thoughts on a few spots. Below are the each divisions

NFC West- San Francisco 49ers 

Trey Lance is going to make the difference.  The 49ers and Rams are pretty even if you spread out the overall talent. The biggest difference for Los Angeles is consistency at QB and ofcourse Aaron Donald.  

Lance is a dynamic athlete that is going to challenge opposing defeneses.  Donald will not have a stagnant Jimmy G in the pocket, it will be a bigger challenge for the all-time great.  The Rams will be in the playoffs but it is concerning that your QB had offseason surgery on his throwing arm.  I am going to give the Niners the edge, not by much.  Lance could struggle to start the season but his talent is limitless.

NFC South- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady’s return locked up the division for the Bucs. Even at his senior age Brady can manage an offense loaded with weapons.  The NFC South will have an improved Carolina team with hopefully a healthy Baker Mayfield and a Saints team with a healthy Jamies Winston, but both of those QB’s are unproven in the big moment. 

The Bucs can rely on their run game with Leonard Fournette and rookie Rashaad White.  Give Brady a solid run game and he will be able to pick apart one on ones all over the field.  Tampa also has the best defense in the conference.  

NFC North- Green Bay Packers

The Packers don’t really care who takes the field with Aaron Rodgers.  Put out whomever you want and he will find a way to make them great.  This has been the game plan for the last few years in Green Bay.  Somehow a team that traded away arguably the best receiver in the NFL is a considerable favorite to not only take their division but many see them as a threat to win the NFC. 

There are questions on the offensive line, questions about receivers, questions about Rodgers hair length.  Lots of questions but the only answer needed is Aaron Rodgers is so much better than every other QB in this division.  The defense is legit and they have a two man running attack that will cause teams problems.  Vikings should make it interesting, the Lions are better but in the end Rodgers will lead the Packers to the NFC North title. 

NFC East- Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles made the sexy moves in the offseason, adding WR AJ Brown and CB James Bradberry.  Philly made the statement that they are going to rely on Jalen Hurts to run their revamped offense.  If Hurts can take the next step with his accuracy to go along with his dynamic running ability then the Eagles may have something. 

Philly will be fun on the offensive end but the problems will still be there on defense.  Against quality QB’s they will continue to stuggle.  Dak Prescott is healthy and still has elite level weapons. The x-factor could be the continued use of Tony Pollard in the short pass game, his ability to create will help while the Cowboys figure out their offensive line questions. The Dallas defense has more playmakers that can make a difference. They win the division but it will be down to the last game per usual.

AFC South- Indianapolis Colts

Matt Ryan is super exciting, but adding an MVP QB that seems like he still has the ability to make plays is always a good thing.  Ryan’s biggest attribute will be his leadership.  Compared to Carson Wentz it’s pretty much as solid an upgrade as you can get.

The Jags will be better in 2022 but the only real competition comes from Derrick Henry and the guys that play with him (Titans).  Tennessee lost a big part of their defense when Harold Landry went down with an ACL injury.  Tennessee will have to lean on the run game and hope the defense can hold up.  This is Jonathon Taylor’s division and he will own it. 

AFC West- Los Angeles Chargers

Easily the most competitive division in football. The Broncos added Russell Wilson, the Raiders added Davante Adams, the Chargers and Chiefs have two QB’s competing for the MVP. 

The Chargers will return their entire offense that was tops in the league last season.  Austin Ekeler will be joined by promising rookie Isiah Spiller, while Joshua Palmer is considered a potential breakout candidate.  Oh, they also added a solid TE in former Ram Gerald Everett.  The Chargers also addressed a huge problem from last season, adding Sebastian Joesph-Day and Austin Johnson to slow down opposing run games.  They also added Khalil Mack, he and Joey Bosa will make things fun for Patrick Mahomes.  The Chargers will be a problem on both sides of the football. 

AFC North- Baltimor Ravens

If DeShaun Watson was playing before week 11 the Browns would have a shot at this division. Since he is not this is a two team race between the Ravens and the Bengals.  Cincy has another year of progression for Joe Burrow will make the Bengals offense something fun to watch all season.  They should put up a great fight against the Ravens, but Balitmore has a better coach and better defense.  Lamar Jackson still lacks the weapongs Burrow has but there is enough there for the Ravens to put up plenty of points.  

Don’t sleep on Rashad Bateman and rookie tightend Isiah Likely.  They can both be huge for the Ravens in 2022.  I think Jackson puts up MVP numbers, and the Ravens take the division by one game. 

AFC East- Buffalo Bills

Maybe the Dolphins test the Bills? Ha, no Bills win this division without a challenge if Josh Allen is healthy.  He is too good and the pass rush is ferocious. 

I Talk Sports- Picks ATS (NFL, NCAAF

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I will be the first to admit that a 1-4 start to my season was not ideal.  Meltdowns from the Steelers, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas were a grocery list of bad beats.  Oh and the Saints forgot how to play defense.  Luckily late adds like Penn State and the Rams kept me in good graces.  Let’s get into this weeks picks.

Houston Texans -2 at Tennessee Titans

Following the longest game in NFL history the hobbled Tennessee Titans return home to take on division foe Houston. Both teams will be looking to avoid an 0-2 start to the regular season.

Let’s start with the obvious, the Texans have dominated the Titans winning 9 of the last 12 meetings.  They are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Titans.  Houston’s defense will look to bring the heat on a Marcus Mariota whom is likely to start despite an elbow injury that caused him to leave their week 1 game.  All signs point to Mariota playing on Sunday but with some injuries to the offensive line the Titans could be looking at a long day trying to stop powerhouses JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney.

The Texans have lost 8 straight games on the road but this matchup with a healthy DeShaun Watson and and a returning Will Fuller will be to much for the Titans to handle.

PicksTexans -2

 Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins -5.5

The Washington Redskins have been flying under the radar during the preseason.  The addition of Alex Smith was not a sexy one but could pay dividends during the season.  His first game was as success full as you would think completing 21 of 30 for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns against an above average Cardinals secondary.  Veteran Adrian Peterson showed he’s still got it by rushing for 96 yards and a touchdown on 26 touches. He also caught two passes for 70 yards.

The veteran Redskins will now have a chance to feast on a Colts defense that has been its achillies heel for an eternity. Statistically, they finished in the middle of the pack in total yards allowed this past Sunday. However, Andy Dalton averaged 8.7 yards per attempt, sixth-highest in Week 1, and Cincinnati gained 5.1 yards per rush as a team, second-most in Week 1. Alex Smith will have homefield advantage and the weapons necessary to pick a part the secondary.  Luck will keep the Colts in the game but the Redskins are to solid on offense to let this game slip away.  I would love this line to get to three but that won’t happen I’ll settle for where it is.

Picks Redskins -5.5

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons -6

The Carolina Panthers play a gritty style of football.  The Falcons don’t like to score in the red zone.  This game has tightly contested written all over it.  The Panthers come into Atlanta as 6 point dogs most likely due to a litany of injuries including long time tight end Greg Olsen.  Cam Newton’s go to receiver broke his foot, he will likely be out for at least three weeks.

The Falcons are dealing with their own injuries as well. The loss of Keanu Neal for the season is a huge blow to the defense, linebacker Deion Jones has also been missing practice due to a foot injury.  Other injuries for the Falcons includes mental injuries, offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkisian tends to forget that he has arguably the best wide receiver in football on his team in the red zone.  Matt Ryan has forgotten how to throw a pass with any velocity as well.  This game is a tough one to pick.  So I am going to go a different direction.  I am looking under for this one and leaning towards the Panthers covering.

PicksPanthers +6 and under 44.5

Ohio Bobcats at Virginia Cavaliers -3.5

Virginia fell to Indiana in week two of the college football season but they intrigued me with their ability to keep it close.  Virginia Quarterback Bryce Perkins has been good for the Cavaliers, dealing with tough weather conditions last week, he will have a favorable matchup against an Ohio secondary that was picked a part by Howard Quarterback Caylin Newton.

Virginia will need to get out to a lead quickly and not look back.  Ohio’s best option will be to play a grind it out style to control the clock.  Keep the bad secondary off the field.  I don’t think Ohio has it in them.

PicksVirginia Cavaliers -3.5

Mizzou Tigers -6.5 at Purdue Boilmakers

The season could not have started in better for the Missouri Tigers.  Two dominate offensive games.  Drew Lock looks like a legit NFL prospect, as a team they have scored 91 points in two games and have covered both weeks spreads…Lock is also averaging 396 passing yards per game over the first two.

Purdue on the other hand has not started the season they way they had envisioned.  A tough loss to Northwestern in game one was followed up last week with a surprising defeat at the hands of Eastern Michigan. A big problem for the Boilermakers has been on the offensive side of the ball. They are averaging only 23 points per game. They have also had an issue with throwing interceptions. Giving a talented offense like Mizzou multiple opportunities will lead to a long night.

PicksMissouri Tigers -6.5

James “Why Not” Pick of the Week 0-1

PicksDolphins +3

My “Why Not” pick of the week fell just short of cashing due to a late interception thrown by DeShaun Watson.  This week I am sticking with the NFL and going with The Miami Dolphins.  The Dolphins will head into the 1-0 New York Jets looking to build on their upset victory over the Tennessee Titans. Sam Darnold looked great outside of his first throw of the game but I still see a rookie QB in a divisional game.  The Dolphins also have a passing attack that can be a problem for any secondary.  Establishing veteran Frank Gore alongside Kenyan Drake will also give the Dolphins a solid run game to back up Ryan Tannehill.  I am not only looking for the Dolphins to cover but I think they win outright.

 

Weekly Picks- NFL, NCAAF

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Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at Cleveland Browns

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a major problem but the Browns are not that problem.  Despite the absence of LeVeon Bell the Pittsburgh Steelers should be in a great place to cover on Sunday.  The lose of bell has moved the line to 3.5.  The Browns are improved with Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and a healthy Josh Gordon should allow them to put points on the board but the Steelers still have a dominate offense that will be able to pull this one out by a touchdown.  I think the Browns will win at least 6-7 games this season and surprise a lot of teams, but the Steelers offense feels like they have something to prove on Sunday and the Cleveland defense will not be ready for James Conner and Big Ben.

The Steelers are 13-4 ATS vs Cleveland over their last 17 games.  Cleveland has not one a season opener since 2004.

PicksSteelers -3.5 (Like the over at 44)

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The return of Andrew Luck makes the Bengals and Colts makes this a much more interesting matchup then it would have been in 2017.  The Colts sitting at a 2.5 point favorite stills surprised us.  The Bengals may not be world beaters but they have veterans all through the offense and a defensive front that features studs Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson.

Luck hasn’t played in a year and that Colts line hasn’t gotten much better.  I can’t buy that Luck is ready to step in right away and look like the Pro Bowl player that he was right away.  Look for Luck to make some plays that reminds us of his greatness but he will have some first game jitters.

Picks Bengals -2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -9.5

In two games against the Buccaneers last season, the Saints averaged 30.5 points per game, Drew Brees averaged 254 pass yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, the running back corps averaged 121.5 rushing yards, and receivers caught 44 passes for 505 yards with three touchdowns. The Buccaneers have not made big improvements on the defensive end.  Why would they be able to stop the Saints in 2018??

Jameis Winston will be serving the first game of his 3 game suspension which means veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick will step in to try take down the great Drew Brees.  9.5 is a lot of points for the first game of the year, but when you have a veteran like Brees and dynamic players like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas the Saints should control the the game on offense and the ball hawking defense should cause plenty of turnovers i

PicksSaints -9.5

Air Force at Florida Atlantic University -9

FAU was embarrassed in their opener versus Kyler Murray and the Oklahoma Sooners in week one.  Air Force is not Oklahoma.  It’s time for people to jump back on the Lane Train in week 2.

Florida Atlantic will come out throwing the ball early, jumping ahead and not looking back.  Air Force dominated a Stoney Brook but Stoney Brook is does not have the talent level of Florida Atlantic.  Being at home and most likely going to be very motivated I like Florida Atlantic to turn the table and blow out Air Force.

PicksFlorida Atlantic -9

Arkansas -14 at Colorado State

The Colorado State defense stinks.  Giving up 45 and 43 to Hawaii and Colorado.  They now are staring at an incoming SEC team in Arkansas.  Arkansas threw for 343 yards in game one against Eastern Illinois.  Colorado State has given up a 373 yards per game in the first two games of the season.

Arkansas will score and they will score and they will score.  That was not a typo.  I see Arkansas putting up a lot of points and silencing any potential home field advantage.  I would take Arkansas by 21 if it went that high.

PicksArkansas -14

James “Why Not” Pick of the Week

PicksHouston Texans +6.5

The Patriots gave up a lot of yards in 2017.  The Texans will have back their second year QB Deshaun Watson who was putting up MVP like numbers before his injury.  Watson is good and his receivers are good.  The Patriots historically have come out of the gates sluggish until Belicheck figures everything out.  Look for a high scoring game where the better defense makes a big play.  Houston has the better defense.  Houston may not only cover but I could see them knocking of the AFC Champs.