NCAAF Pick ATS Week 8

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Liberty Flames -10

Libety is 5-0 for the first time since 2008. Their offense has been impressive averaging 34 ppg.  The running attack has been carrying the load, averaging 269 yard per game.  The difficulty of the Flames is they consistently varry up their looks.  They have a four-headed monster Joshua Mack (359 yards 6.1 AVG, 1TD), Shedro Louis (310 yards, 9.4 AVG, 3 TDs), Peyton Pickett (293 yards, 5.0 AVG, 3 TD), quarterback Malik Willis who has a team-best 398 yards and five touchdowns.  The run game will be a huge factor against Southern Mississippi, they give up 5.7 yards per attempt this season.  

Southern Mississippi has been living through the air.  69% of their offensive plays have come by way of the pass.  Liberty is 4th in the nation in stopping the big pass play, holding opposing teams to just 5.5 yards per attempt.  

Liberty has not played a great schedule but they have a lot of momentum after stomping Syracuse last week.  This is a great matchup for the Flames and they should be able to do whatever they want on offense. 

Pick: Liberty Flames -10

Houston Cougars -14 at Navy Midshipmen

Houston got run over by Zach Wilson and BYU last week giving up yards by the plenty.  Navy has tons of momentum coming off of a win over East Carolina last week, their third in a row.  Navy has seen a carousel at QB but it hasn’t stopped the offensive game plan for Navy.  They want to run the ball and that is what they have been doing.  They have averaged 191 rush yards per game.  They will have Tyger Goslin at QB which means they will continue to pound the run game on Houston looking to control the clock. 

Houston has a dynamic offense led by QB Clayton Tune.  They were able to go shot for shot with BYU until the 4th quarter.  It will be vital for Houston to take advantage of their time with the ball as they will struggle to stop the run game.  Houston likely pulls this one out because of Clayton Tune but they will not have an easy go on the road.  Houston wins, but 14 is too many points. 

Pick: Navy Midshipmen +14

Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 at SMU Mustangs 

SMU is 5-0, featuring one of the most powerful offenses in college football.  The Mustangs rank ninth in the nation in scoring (40.9 per game).  They have done that against mediocre defenese to say the least.  They will now get one of the best defenses in the country coming off of a week off due to Covid-19 issues.  

While SMU is unbeaten they have not faced the competition they will face on Saturday.  Cincinnati has held teams to just 306 yards per game good for 12th in the nation.  SMU’s Shane Buechele has been on fire but he will be without his top target Reggie Roberson.  Without Roberson, SMU could have trouble doing the things that they want to do. Their 406 passing yards per game has allowed them to overcome defensive issues. No Roberson will hurt the game plan. 

Cincinnati will try to limit the decisions for Ridder by running the ball against the subpar defense of  SMU.  They give up 170 yards per game on the ground.  The Bearcats have been great with 121 carries for 534 yards and 7 touchdowns.  

The rested Cincy defense and the run game will be enough to take down SMU on the road.  May as well take the points to be safe.    

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 

Overall Season Picks Record: 4-2

NCAAF Picks ATS- Week 10

Season Record: 21-22

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio State Buckeyes -18

Nebraska is in rebuild mood under first year Head Coach Scott Frost.  This team will not always stink, but this season they do.  They are going to be running into an angry buzzsaw on Saturday when they face the Ohio State Buckeyes

Defensively, Nebraska allows an average of 272 passing yards per game, which is the 20th-most in college football and could be an issue against the likes of Dwayne Haskins. Despite the loss to Purdue two weeks ago Haskins was still good throwing for 470 yards against Purdue.  This will be an offensive onslaught from the Buckeyes early and late.  Ohio State wants to make a statement after their upset loss to Purdue and have had a whole week to sit a stew over the loss.  This will be ugly.

PicksOhio State -18.5

Georgia Bulldogs -9 at Kentucky Wildcats

The Georgia Bulldogs have won eight straight meetings with the Kentucky Wildcats by an average of 20 point per game.  Wildcat fans should be proud of the way their team has played this season.  Pulling off the victory at Mizzou in the final seconds has kept their teams SEC title dreams alive.  Beating Mizzou is great but this is the Georgia Bulldogs.  A team that fell just short of a National Title and knows they have work to do after suffering an embarrassing loss two weeks ago to LSU.

Any chance to a Georgia let down was wiped away two weeks ago.  The Bulldogs will be gas on the pedal full adrenaline the entire night.  Sophomore QB Jake Fromm will limit the turnovers and keep the ball in their hands.  Georgia will stack the line to make sure Benny Snell will not be a factor.  Bulldogs not only need to win but need to win convincingly.

PicksGeorgia -9

Memphis Tigers-13 at East Carolina Pirates

This one is simple to me.  I began this article when the line was a -13 fro Memphis, I have seen it go as low as -11 on some sights.  This almost seems to easy, Memphis will have the best player on the field in Darrell Henderson.  UCF ran wild on the East Carolina defense, look for Memphis to ride Henderson early and often.

East Carolina will get a few big plays in but they won’t be able to keep up with the Memphis offense.

PicksMemphis Tigers -13

Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies +2

The return of AJ Dillon has made a huge difference for the Boston College Eagles. But they have a matchup against a team that will have the tools needed to defeat them on Saturday beginning with Virginia Tech QB Ryan Willis.

Boston College’s two losses came on the road against teams that throw a bit. The Hokie O line might not be amazing, but it should be able to give Willis just enough time to operate.

The Eagles will need to create turnovers to win and that is not easy to do against Virginia Tech.  The home field advantage will play a large role in this one.

PicksVirginia Tech Hokies  +2

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves -15

I always like to pick a game no one is going to watch in case I am losing.  Arkansas State can score, I have covered two games I have bet on with them.  I’m gonna let it ride.

PicksArkansas State Red Wolves -15

Other Picks:

Florida State +9

Penn State Michigan over 53

Charlotte +22